Gylian presidential election, 2010

Gylian presidential election, 2010

22 January 2010
Turnout	95,9%
Nominee Carmen Dell'Orefice Laura Varnaþ Party Ind PA Final vote 7.043.213 6.973.017 Percentage 50,3% 49,7%
Results of the final preference distribution by region   Anina Bergmann   Carmen Dell'Orefice
President before election Laura Varnaþ President after election Carmen Dell'Orefice

A presidential election was held in Gylias on 22 January 2010.

Independent candidate Carmen Dell'Orefice defeated incumbent Laura Varnaþ, the first time a Gylian president had lost re-election.

Procedure

The election was held through instant-runoff voting.

Candidates were registered with Elections Gylias in accordance with normal procedures. They could either be nominated by a political party or electoral bloc, civic organisations, or self-nomination as independents.

Candidates

Candidate		Nominator		Office(s) held	Details
Carmen Dell'Orefice			Independent	None	Campaigned on promotion of aristerokratia.
Laura Varnaþ			Progressive Alliance	City Councillor of Velouria (1992–2002) Regional Councillor for Nerveiík-Iárus-Daláyk (2002–2006) President of Gylias (since 2007)	Campaigned as the main leftist candidate.
Virginia Inman			Rally for a Free Society–Union of Independents–Free and Voluntaryist Union	None	Campaigned on promotion of market anarchism.
Lena Haidynraix			Independent	None	Campaigned on promotion of sports.
Amanda Leloup			OMFLG–ACFEN	Governor of Nezyál (1970–1978)	Campaigned on promotion of francité.
Yseult Roxane Danesh			National Bloc	Governor of Arsad (since 2002)	Campaigned as the main conservative candidate.
Simone Kalpita			Pirate Party	None	Campaigned on promotion of pirate politics.

Results

Candidate		Nominator	First count	%	Final count	%
	Carmen Dell'Orefice	Independent	2.551.234	16,4%	7.043.213	50,3%
	Laura Varnaþ	PA	2.411.227	15,5%	6.973.017	49,7%
	Virginia Inman	RFS–UI–FVU	2.333.446	15,0%
	Lena Haidynraix	Independent	2.286.777	14,7%
	Amanda Leloup	OMFLG–ACFEN	2.255.664	14,5%
	Yseult Roxane Danesh	NB	1.928.982	12,4%
	Simone Kalpita	Pirates	1.633.411	10,5%
Others/write-ins			155.564	1,0%
Total			15.556.305	100%	14.016.231	100%
Registered voters and turnout			16.485.144	95,9%

Maps

First count pluralities by region

Final count majorities by region

Analysis

The election is fondly remembered among Gylian presidential elections for its rich crop of candidates and excitingly close result. Incumbent president Laura Varnaþ had managed to establish herself in the office after her shock victory in 2007, but opinion polls revealed she was still particularly vulnerable for re-election.

Two candidates returned from 1991: Virginia Inman and Carmen Dell'Orefice. On the eve of her 80th birthday, Carmen was one of the oldest candidates in a Gylian presidential election. Besides her characteristic aristerokratia theme, her campaign took full advantage of her "silver fox" reputation, using a platform based on social justice and fighting ageism that attracted significant youth support, much to her delight. One of her celebrated posters showed her proudly standing with a young girl wearing a silver-haired wig, with the punning caption Il mio primo voto è per nonna Carmen ("My first vote is for grandma Carmen").

The other colourful candidates in the running were the sportsperson Lena Haidynraix, whose quirky campaign made her unexpectedly popular, the francité stalwart Amanda Leloup, and Tennaiite actress Simone Kalpita. On the heels of her breakthrough role in Shriya Eats Daal, Simone chose to seek the Pirate Party's nomination, and attended many public meetings in costume as Lucy Nova.

On the conservative side, the National Bloc's campaign was overshadowed by a rivalry between its current candidate, Arsad Governor Yseult Roxane Danesh, and its previous candidate, Herlan Governor Nicolette Mercier. The cause of this was the different ideologies and governing styles of the two, and Yseult Roxane's criticism of Nicolette for her loss in 2007, to which Nicolette responded by daring Yseult Roxane to run for the presidency herself.

Yseult Roxane's campaign was weakened by Nicolette's criticism of her as too business-friendly — a particularly damaging rebuke only 2 decades after the Union for Freedom and Prosperity split — and her advocacy of establishing official relations with Mansuriyyah, which was often misinterpreted.

The first round proved to be the closest fought since 1986. Carmen performed best, with 16,4% of first preference votes and pluralities in 7 regions. Laura was nearly 1% behind in second place, with pluralities in 3 regions. Virginia greatly improved her 1991 performance, finishing third with 15% of first preference votes and pluralities in 5 regions, including the mountainous northern regions that were still hostile to Laura due to her royal descent.

Lena finished fourth, with 14,7% of first preference votes but no pluralities, while Amanda gained 14,5% of first preference votes and pluralities in Nezyál and Herlan.

Yseult Roxane made a particularly poor showing, ending in sixth place and only winning a plurality in Nauras. She was even overtaken by Laura in her home region of Arsad — a particularly humiliating turn after she'd criticised Nicolette for similarly placing second in Herlan. Simone Kalpita finished last with 10,5% of first preference votes, but managed to win pluralities in Mişeyáke and Sváen.

In the final round, Carmen generally gained transfers from Virginia, Yseult Roxane, and Simone's voters, while Laura generally gained transfers from Lena and Amanda's voters. The result was close, and Carmen defeated Laura by only around 70.000 votes. The map reflected the narrow result, with Carmen winning majorities in 11 regions to Laura's 9. This marked the first time an incumbent president was defeated for re-election.