Western Thrace Insurgency

Western Thrace Insurgency
Part of the Western Thrace Dispute
Date 5 September 2023 - present Location Western Thrace Status Ongoing
Belligerents
Thrace Bulgarians Partisan Front Trakiya Rouge	United Nations NATO PKF EU PAM Russia RU PKF	Thrace Hellenes Néoi Armatoloi Spartan Guard
Commanders and leaders
TBD	TBD	TBD
Units involved
TBD	TBD	TBD
Strength
1000 500	7,000 3,000 1,500	800 400
Casualties and losses
120-160 killed 60-80 killed	17 killed 10 killed 15 killed	90-110 killed 30-60 killed

The Western Thrace Insurgency is an ongoing conflict in the UN-administered territory of Western Thrace between ethnic Bulgarians, Greeks, peacekeeping forces from NATO, the European Union and Russia. The conflict stems from the Western Thrace Dispute and the aftermath of the Crskan War, in which Crskan troops and NATO airpower forced the Bulgarian People's Army to withdraw from Western Thrace, which they had occupied since the end of the Second World War. The combined NATO-Russia peacekeeping mission has been largely successful in preventing the outbreak of ethnic warfare since its implementation in 1998 as per Security Council Resolution 1107, which transferred security duties in the region from the occupying Crskan Army to the NATO-Russia force. Foreign analysts regard the conflict as part of the wider instability in the Balkans following the start of the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine which has resulted in old fault lines reopening in the region, threatening to reheat previously frozen conflicts in Kosovo and Western Thrace, and drag Euro-Atlantic powers into another conflict in the Balkan region.

Ethnic composition of Western Thrace

The main parties involved in the conflict are the ethnic Bulgarian Partisan Front insurgent group and Trakiya Rouge (Red Thracia) paramilitary unit, and the ethnic Greek Néoi Armatoloi (New Irregulars) insurgent group and Group "Sparta" paramilitary unit. Bulgarian rebels have engaged the NATO-EU mission and Greek rebels, whereas Greek rebels have mainly engaged their Bulgarian foes and the Russian mission, who they accuse of covertly supporting Bulgarian efforts in the region thus making them legitimate targets. Despite the deployment of additional NATO, EU, and Russian forces to the region in an attempt to subdue the conflict, the crisis has severely raised regional tensions with Bulgaria threatening to send its own military into the region to 'safeguard' ethnic Bulgarians and Bulgarian citizens, a move that would potentially be backed by Russia. Crska has declared that it will engage Bulgarian forces that enter Western Thrace, with NATO members Greece supporting this position. The crisis is the worst outbreak of violence in Western Thrace since the conclusion of the Crskan War and threatens to propel the region back into an large scale military conflict with multiple parties involved.

Timeline of Major Events

Geopolitical reactions to the crisis

September

• • 5-6 Sep 2023: Crskan leadership releases an ambiguous statement accusing 'foreign powers' of 'instigating instability in the region in order to further its geopolitical goals in Western Thrace', which analysts believe to be aimed at Bulgaria. Crska also calls for an 'immediately increased international security presence in Western Thrace.' Bulgaria blames the NATO for the situation in Western Thrace, declaring that the 'bias treatment of ethnic Bulgarians must cease and Bulgarians that fled the region post-1998 must be allowed to return' for the conflict to subside. Bulgaria also called on Russia to increase the number of troops in the region as it expected NATO 'to use the conflict to deploy additional forces to sovereign Bulgarian territory for the sake of warmongering and advancing the Greek project in the region.'
  • 9-19 Sep 2023: Following two successful operations against the Partisan Front, NATO and the European Union release a joint statement promising the continuation of 'surgical operations' against rebel groups in Westhern Thrace. They also announce that they will be petitioning the Security Council for authorization to increase the number of boots on the ground, and called on Russian peacekeepers to prevent 'all and any cross-border flow of weaponry and fighters.' Security Council convenes an emergency meeting to discuss the situation in Western Thrace. Motion to increase the NATO Peacekeeping Force to 10,000 (7,000 troops, 3,000 police officers) vetoed by Russia over the American and British opposition to allow Russia to deploy additional peacekeepers (as per the Bulgarian-Russian-UN agreement which ended the Crskan War, Russian presence in Western Thrace must equate to 10% of that of NATO-EU strength, however Russia demands that this is increased to 20%) due to Western opposition to Russian involvement because of the War in Ukraine. Britain condemns Russia for preventing the motion. Security Council convenes its second meeting on the crisis in Western Thrace, in light of increased attacks against NATO and EU forces. Russia, the United States, and Britain, once again fail to reach an agreement on the deployment of Russian forces and the motion to deploy additional NATO-EU forces is vetoed again by Russia leading to severe discontent in the Security Council.
  • 22-23 Sep 2023: Russia vows a 'swift retaliation' against the perpatrators of the Makaza attack and once again demands that the West allow increased deployment of Russian troops in the region 'in increased proportionality' to NATO-EU forces. Bulgaria releases a statement in support of the Russian position. 400 Russian troops arrive in Bulgaria in the wake of the Makaza attack. Later the Russian troops are spotted at the border of Bulgaria proper and Western Thrace, leading to NATO concerns that Russia is about to unilaterally intervene in Western Thrace against Greek rebels in violation of the United Nations mandate in the region.
  • 26 Sep 2023: Security Council convenes its third meeting on the crisis in Western Thrace, where Russia and the the United States reach a compromise to increase the limit to 15%. Britain withdraws its opposition at the behest of the United States. In total, an additional 5,000 NATO troops, 1,000 EU police officers, and 800 Russian troops will be deployed to Western Thrace. The Makaza attack is condemned by all members of the Security Council as a prerequisite to the 15% compromise. The first reinforcements from NATO and the European Union, totaling 800 troops and 200 police officers, are forward deployed to Turkey just a few hours hours later.
  • 27-28 Sep 2023: Following another attack on a Russian position, Russia and Bulgaria release a joint statement accusing the west of 'bias and complacency' in the conflict, highlighting the fact that NATO-EU forces have taken minimal action to prevent Greek rebel attacks against Bulgarians, or to pacify Greek rebels. Bulgaria openly threatens to deploy its own troops into Western Thrace 'to protect the lives of ethnic Bulgarians and Bulgarian citizens' should such inaction continue. Crska orders its army onto the highest state of combat alert, and cautions that if Bulgarian forces enter Western Thrace, the peace deal brokered in 1998 will no longer be valid and that 'active combat operations will resume in the region.' NATO member Greece releases its own statement, supporting Crska's position and threatening to send its own troops into Western Thrace should Bulgaria make such a move, and demands that Russia is to 'keep it's Red Bulgarian puppets in check.'

Actions involving international forces

September

• • 5-16 Sep 2023: Car bomb detonates outside the headquarters of the EU Police Assistance Mission in Xanthi, killing 2 police officers from Germany and injuring a further 6 police officers from Italy – Bulgarian insurgent group known as Thrace Partisan Front claims responsibility for the attack and vows more attacks. Several Partisan Front fighters are killed and captured in a successful NATO operation in the Xanthi suburbs. Police officer killed during a successful operation to capture several Partisan Front members in the Xanthi suburbs. NATO peacekeeper killed by sniper fire during revenge operation in Komotini – Bulgarian paramilitary unit known as Trakiya Rouge claims responsibility for the attack as revenge for the operations in the Xanthi suburbs. Trakiya Rouge vows to expell NATO and EU forces from Western Thrace. Trakiya Rouge ambush an EU police convoy in Komotini resulting in the deaths of 2 police officers. Special forces operation successfully eliminates at least 20 Bulgarian rebels in the Komotini suburbs.
  • 21 Sep 2023: Russian peacekeeping outpost at the Kulata border crossing between Western Thrace and Bulgaria proper comes under heavy attack by small arms fire and mortar shelling. During the attack a Russian BMP-3 Infantry Fighting Vehicle is destroyed by an anti-tank missile, killing 3 Russian peacekeepers and wounding several.
  • 22-23 Sep 2023: Partisan Front fighters ambush a NATO convoy in the village Arriana using rockets and IED's. 3 NATO peacekeepers are killed. Subsequently NATO helicopters strikes destroy several Partisan Front observation positions in and around the village of Arriana, which is occupied by ground troops the following day.
  • 24-28 Sep 2023: Russian forces raid the Greek town of Didymoteicho, near the border with Turkey. During the assault 8 Greek militants – originally believed to be part of Spartan Guard but later confirmed to be members of Néoi Armatoloi instead – are killed in the raid, which is a Russian operational success. Russian peacekeeper killed by sniper fire and several others are wounded in a grenade attack at the Ivaylovgrad border crossing between Western Thrace and Bulgaria proper – Spartan Guard claims responsibility for the attack as a retaliation for the Russian raid on Didymoteicho a couple days earlier. Acting on Russian intelligence gathered in the aftermath of the Didymoteicho operation, NATO helicopters strike 3 houses believed to be harbouring weapons caches for Greek rebels in the nearby village of Isaakio. Russian ground forces assault the village and successfully manage to disperse Greek militants in the area, with 1 Russian soldier killed in the process.
  • 29 Sep 2023: Bulgarian militants conduct Operation Red Dawn. Trakiya Rouge hit NATO security post adjacent to Alexandroupoli Airport with a car bomb while Partisan Front shells the headquarters of the EU Police Assistance Mission in Xanthi with mortars and shoot down a NATO helicopter. Several checkpoints near Xanthi and Komotini are subjected to grenade attacks and small arms fire. 18 are killed in the attacks, in the bloodiest day for the peacekeeping mission since its inception in 1998.
  • 30 Sep 2023: Russian BMP-3 destroyed after hitting an AT mine planted by Néoi Armatoloi, killing 10 Russian peacekeepers.

October

• • 1 Oct 2023: NATO warplanes bomb several Partisan Front and Trakiya Rouge targets across Western Thrace, killing at least 40 rebels.
  • 2 Oct 2023: Russian helicopters launch strikes on the village of Thourio, near the Turkish border, killing at least 20 rebels.

Actions related to ethnic conflict

September

• • 12-17 Sep 2023: Néoi Armatoloi capture the Bulgarian villages of Vyrsini, Myki, Basaykovo, Glafki, and Echinos after heavy clashes. Vyrsini after Russian peacekeepers arrive, and Partisan Front capture the Greek villages of Valtos and Sterna. Trakiya Rouge detonate a car bomb in the Greek village of Makri and launch several attempts to overrun the area, reinforced by Partisan Front fighters, but are eventually repelled by Greek militants and forced to withdraw.
  • 20 Sep 2023: Néoi Armatoloi attack, capture, loot, and burn down the Bulgarian villages of Mikro Dereio and Korimvos before withdrawing.
  • 24-28 Sep 2023: Trakiya Rouge detonate a car bomb in the Greek village of Asiymi and subsequently capture it. Spartan Guard ambush a Partisan Front convoy near Glikoneri and capture the Bulgarian village of Salpi. Partisan Front launch an attack the Greek village of Kavyli but are faced with stiff resistance and forced to withdraw.