Cetus Contingency
The Cetus Contingency is a Syaran Military operation plan that details how the Syaran Commonality Armed Forces would react to the outbreak of hostilities with a foreign power beyond Syara's immediate borders. The plan largely centers around employing Syara's air, naval, and missiles forces
Origin
Sometime after the Refusal War, and following the re-affirmation of the Treaty of Chryse with Górska and the singing of the 1993 Commonality-Principality Border Agreement with Ruvelka, the Governmeny of Syara shifted strategic war planning away from hostilities with Syara's geographic neighbors to international powers beyond Syara's borders. Drawn up with the intention of preventing foreign military powers from taking advantage of Syara's post-civil war reconstruction, Cetus Contingency focused on actions that would be taken by the Commonality Air Force and the Syaran Commonality Navy to deny hostile naval and air forces access to the Sundering and Sanguine Seas in and around Syara. In many ways Cetus is considered an update to the Republic-era Nereus Plan, a strategic defensive plan that focused on countering hostile naval forces rather than threats on the Siduri continent.
The first iteration of Cetus is was published in 1995, with updates made as increased access to weapons and technological development occurred. Cetus was largely sidelined following the Imerti Conflict and Zemplen War, but returned to strategic prominence after the Midsummer War, with the most recent modification being made in 2021.
Strategy
The Cetus Contingency operates under the assumption that the Commonality is at war with a foreign power that does not involve active participation by either Ruvelka or Górska, the only two nations Syara shared a direct border with. It is unclear if Cetus accounts for the involvement of Syara's ally Æþurheim, but is suspected that variations exist that include and exclude Æþurian involvement. The plan also operates under the assumption that an internationally backed agreement that prevents combat in the Sundering Sea, as was the case in Zemplen War.
The plan does not specify what potential adversary Syara is at war, but instead breaks down "scenario hostiles" based on the direction from which their forces approach; this can effectively be used as a stand in for specific nation's militaries. In effect, Cetus is designed with countries capable of projecting significant naval power, to include Acrea, Cacerta, Ossoria, and Tennai, all of whom posses aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines. Exact breakdowns of operational details depend on the specific nation in question, which affect targeting priorities, force deployment, and weapons allocation.
For hostilities in the Sundering Sea, Cetus prioritizes the reinforcement of the Chryse Regional Command, maximizing Syaran troops presence on the island in accordance with the Treaty of Chryse. Cetus further urges that negotiations be conducted with the government of Górska to allow for Syaran troop levels to exceed those specified in the treaty. The desired end state is to reinforce the island with an additional brigade each of air defense units and coastal defense forces consisting of mobile surface-to-air missile launchers and mobile anti-ship missile batteries.
Because of the limited space, and thus maneuverability, offered by the Sundering Sea, the "mouth" of the Divide is to be utilized as a choke point through which enemy vessels could be sunk before approaching Syara. Because the Aleitian Sea is covered entirely by the range of Syaran anti-ship missiles fired by land, sea, and air platforms, it is not expected that any major push would be made through the Sundering to reach Syara.
Threats from the Nuandan Ocean are considered both most feasible strategically and also more threatening, owing to a lack of natural geographic barriers to form defensive measures around. Strategic defense from the Nuandan thus relies heavily on the Æþurian-Syaran underwater surveillance system that runs from southern Syara through the island of Ærick, to the western coast of Æþurheim. The "Sanguine Line" as it is sometimes called exists to prevent the infiltration of submarines into the Sanguine Sea and Syaran coastal waters.