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2021 Estmerish general election: Difference between revisions

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[[Category:Estmere]]{{Infobox election
[[Category:Estmerish elections]]{{KylarisRecognitionArticle}}{{Infobox election
| election_name    = 2021 Estmerish general election
| election_name    = 2021 Estmerish general election
| country          = Estmere
| country          = Estmere
Line 6: Line 6:
| type              = parliamentary
| type              = parliamentary
| vote_type        = Popular <!-- default -->
| vote_type        = Popular <!-- default -->
| ongoing          = yes
| ongoing          = no
| previous_election = [[2018 Estmerish general election]]
| previous_election = [[2018 Estmerish general election]]
| previous_year    = [[2018 Estmerish general election|2018]]
| previous_year    = [[2018 Estmerish general election|2018]]
Line 12: Line 12:
| election_date    = 27 May 2021
| election_date    = 27 May 2021
| elected_members  =  
| elected_members  =  
| next_election    =  
| next_election    = [[Next Estmerish general election]]
| next_year        =  
| next_year        = [[Next Estmerish general election|''Next'']]
| seats_for_election= All [[Parliament of Estmere#Constituencies|600 seats]] in the [[Chamber of Commons of Estmere|Chamber of Commons]]
| seats_for_election= All [[Parliament of Estmere#Constituencies|600 seats]] in the [[Chamber of Commons of Estmere|Chamber of Commons]]
| majority_seats    = 301
| majority_seats    = 301
| opinion_polls    =  
| opinion_polls    =  
| registered        =  
| registered        = 42,308,455
| turnout          =  
| turnout          = 30,822,889 (72.85%; {{increase}} 2.4 {{wp|Percentage point|pp}})
| votes_counted    =
| 1blank = Constituency&nbsp;vote  
| 1blank = Constituency&nbsp;vote  
| 2blank = % and swing
| 2blank = % and swing
Line 25: Line 24:
| 4blank = % and swing
| 4blank = % and swing


| image1            = [[File:Official portrait of Mr David Davis crop 2.jpg|160x160px]]
| image1            = [[File:Official portrait of Lisa Nandy crop 2.jpg|160x160px]]
| colour1          = 3083b7
| colour1          = d71b1b
| leader1          = [[Reginald Wilton-Smyth]]
| leader1          = [[Zoe Halivar]]
| party1            = [[Sotirian Democratic Union|SDU]]
| party1            = [[Social Democratic and Co-operative Party|SDCP]]
| leader_since1    = 23 April 2018
| leader_since1    = 22 May 2016
| leaders_seat1    = [[Parliament of Estmere#Constituencies|Newchurch and Harrendole]]
| leaders_seat1    = [[Parliament of Estmere#Constituencies|Harbrough Hillside]]
| last_election1    = 216
| last_election1    = 187
| seats_before1    = 215
| seats_before1    = 184
| seats1            =  
| seats1            = '''253'''
| seats_needed1    = {{increase}}86
| seats_needed1    = {{increase}}117
| seat_change1      = {{decrease}}
| seat_change1      = {{increase}}66
| 1data1            =  
| 1data1            = '''13,805,572'''
| 2data1            =  
| 2data1            = '''44.79%''' {{increase}}11.09%
| 3data1            =  
| 3data1            = '''12,729,101'''
| 4data1            =  
| 4data1            = '''41.30%''' {{increase}}10.40%


| image2            = [[File:Official portrait of Lisa Nandy crop 2.jpg|160x160px]]
| image2            = [[File:Official portrait of Mr David Davis crop 2.jpg|160x160px]]
| colour2          = d71b1b
| colour2          = 3083b7
| leader2          = [[Zoe Halivar]]
| leader2          = [[Reginald Wilton-Smyth]]
| party2            = [[Social Democratic and Co-operative Party|SDCP]]
| party2            = [[Sotirian Democratic Union|SDU]]
| leader_since2    = 22 May 2016
| leader_since2    = 23 April 2018
| leaders_seat2    = [[Parliament of Estmere#Constituencies|Harbrough Hillside]]
| leaders_seat2    = [[Parliament of Estmere#Constituencies|Newchurch and Harrendole]]
| last_election2    = 187
| last_election2    = 216
| seats_before2    = 184
| seats_before2    = 215
| seats2            =  
| seats2            = 199
| seats_needed2    = {{increase}}117
| seats_needed2    = {{increase}}86
| seat_change2      = {{increase}}
| seat_change2      = {{decrease}}17
| 1data2            =  
| 1data2            = 10,529,099
| 2data2            =  
| 2data2            = 34.16% {{decrease}}2.64%
| 3data2            =  
| 3data2            = 10,032,054
| 4data2            =  
| 4data2            = 32.55% {{decrease}}3.05%


| image3            = [[File:Kirsty Williams AM (28092338171) (cropped).jpg|160x160px]]
| image3            = [[File:Kirsty Williams AM (28092338171) (cropped).jpg|160x160px]]
Line 62: Line 61:
| party3            = [[Reform Party|Reform]]
| party3            = [[Reform Party|Reform]]
| leader_since3    = 11 October 2014
| leader_since3    = 11 October 2014
| leaders_seat3    = [[Parliament of Estmere#Constituencies|Tolbury Outer]]
| leaders_seat3    = [[Parliament of Estmere#Constituencies|Tolbury Outer]]<br>(''lost'')
| last_election3    = 101
| last_election3    = 101
| seats_before3    = 99
| seats_before3    = 99
| seats3            =  
| seats3            = 44
| seats_needed3    = {{increase}}202
| seats_needed3    = {{increase}}202
| seat_change3      = {{decrease}}
| seat_change3      = {{decrease}}57
| 1data3            =  
| 1data3            = 2,780,225
| 2data3            =  
| 2data3            = 9.02% {{decrease}}9.61%
| 3data3            =  
| 3data3            = 2,185,905
| 4data3            =  
| 4data3            = 7.09% {{decrease}}6.78%


| image4            = [[File:Daniel Hannan by Gage Skidmore.jpg|160x160px]]
| image4            = [[File:Molly Scott Cato, 2016 (cropped).jpg|160x160px]]
| colour4          = 000000
| colour4          = 6AB023
| leader4          = [[George Avery]]
| leader4          = [[Sara Hall-Brookes]]<br><small>''({{wp|Lead Candidate}})''</small>
| party4            = [[Estmere First]]
| party4            = [[Greens (Estmere)|Greens]]
| leader_since4    = 11 August 2018
| leader_since4    = 7 April 2015
| leaders_seat4    = [[Parliament of Estmere#Constituencies|Bouley North East]]
| leaders_seat4    = [[Parliament of Estmere#Constituencies|Tendersea]]
| last_election4    = 35
| last_election4    = 29
| seats_before4    = 29
| seats_before4    = 29
| seats4            =  
| seats4            = 40
| seats_needed4    = {{increase}}272
| seats_needed4    = {{increase}}272
| seat_change4      = {{decrease}}
| seat_change4      = {{increase}}11
| 1data4            =  
| 1data4            = 1,417,853
| 2data4            =  
| 2data4            = 4.60% {{increase}}0.70%
| 3data4            =  
| 3data4            = 2,116,405
| 4data4            =  
| 4data4            = 6.87% {{increase}}1.97%


| image5            = [[File:Molly Scott Cato, 2016 (cropped).jpg|160x160px]]
| image5            = {{CSS image crop|Image=Richard Burgon, 2020 Labour Party deputy leadership election hustings, Bristol.jpg|bSize=300|cWidth=120|cHeight=160|oRight=0|oLeft=100|oBottom=20}}
| colour5          = 6AB023
| colour5          = DC247F
| leader5          = [[Sara Hall-Brookes]]<br><small>''({{wp|Lead Candidate}})''</small>
| leader5          = [[Ted Barnes]]
| party5            = [[Greens (Estmere)|Greens]]
| party5            = [[Estmerish Section of the Workers' International|ESWI]]
| leader_since5    = 7 April 2015
| leader_since5    = 17 January 2019
| leaders_seat5    = [[Parliament of Estmere#Constituencies|Tendersea]]
| leaders_seat5    = [[Parliament of Estmere#Constituencies|Batterly and Nunling]]
| last_election5    = 29
| last_election5    = 15
| seats_before5    = 29
| seats_before5    = 14
| seats5            =  
| seats5            = 21
| seats_needed5    = {{increase}}272
| seats_needed5    = {{increase}}286
| seat_change5      = {{decrease}}
| seat_change5      = {{increase}}6
| 1data5            =  
| 1data5            = 610,293
| 2data5            =  
| 2data5            = 1.98% {{decrease}}0.02%
| 3data5            =  
| 3data5            = 1,156,376
| 4data5            =  
| 4data5            = 3.75% {{increase}}1.25%


| image6            = [[File:Official portrait of Rt Hon Sir George Howarth MP crop 2.jpg|160x160px]]
| image6            = {{CSS image crop|Image=Eleanor Laing, MP for Epping Forest.jpg|bSize=120|cWidth=120|cHeight=160|oRight=0|oLeft=0|oBottom=20}}
| colour6          = 008142
| colour6          = 24a8e0
| leader6          = [[Aelfwin Stringer]]
| leader6          = [[Dorris Tippery]]
| party6            = [[Party of the Swathish]]
| party6            = [[Senior Citizens Countryside Alliance|SCCA]]
| leader_since6    = 15 August 2009
| leader_since6    = 3 January 2021
| leaders_seat6    = [[Parliament of Estmere#Constituencies|Holdenshire Wilds]]
| leaders_seat6    = {{wp|Party list|Flurland}}
| last_election6    = 15
| last_election6    = 0
| seats_before6    = 15
| seats_before6    = 0
| seats6            =  
| seats6            = 14
| seats_needed6    = {{increase}}286
| seats_needed6    = {{increase}}301
| seat_change6      = {{increase}}
| seat_change6      = {{increase}}14
| 1data6            =  
| 1data6            = 332,887
| 2data6            =  
| 2data6            = 1.08% {{increase}}1.08%
| 3data6            =  
| 3data6            = 793,954
| 4data6            =  
| 4data6            = 2.58% {{increase}}2.58%


<!-- polls -->
<!-- polls -->
Line 145: Line 144:
| before_party      = [[Sotirian Democratic Union|SDU]]
| before_party      = [[Sotirian Democratic Union|SDU]]
| posttitle        = [[Prime Minister of Estmere|Prime Minister]] after election
| posttitle        = [[Prime Minister of Estmere|Prime Minister]] after election
| after_election    = [[Reginald Wilton-Smyth]]
| after_election    = [[Zoe Halivar]]
| after_party      = [[Sotirian Democratic Union|SDU]]
| after_party      = [[Social Democratic and Co-operative Party|SDCP]]
}}
}}


The '''2021 Estmerish general election''' will be held on 27 May 2021. It is a {{wp|snap election}}, called by [[Prime Minister of Estmere|Prime Minister]] [[Reginald Wilton-Smyth]]. All 600 [[Parliament of Estmere#MPs|Members of Parliament]] in the [[Chamber of Commons of Estmere|Chamber of Commons]] will be elected.
The '''2021 Estmerish general election''' was held on 27 May 2021. It was a {{wp|snap election}}, called for by [[Prime Minister of Estmere|Prime Minister]] [[Reginald Wilton-Smyth]] on 14 April with the intention of providing clarity following the [[Estmerish missing pensions scandal|gambled pensions scandal]]<ref name="Election Called">[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38552474#p38552474"Reginald Wilton-Smyth calls snap election in order to "provide clarity to the nation""]. ''[[Estmerish Broadcasting Service|EBS News]]''. 14 April 2021. Retrieved 30 April 2021.</ref>. All 600 [[Parliament of Estmere#MPs|Members of Parliament]] in the [[Chamber of Commons of Estmere|Chamber of Commons]] were elected. Official results were released on 29 May<ref name = "Full results chirp">[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38693464#p38693464"@ebs_news"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 29 May 2021. Retrieved 30 May 2021.</ref>.


Following [[2018 Estmerish general election|2018]], the next election was not scheduled until 2022. Reginald Wilton-Smyth made the call for a snap election on 14 April 2021, and Parliament voted in favour on 15 April. Campaigning unofficially began with the start of {{wp|Purdah (pre-election period)|purdah}} on 18 April, but the campaign officially began with the dissolution of Parliament on 25 April. The ruling [[Sotirian Democratic Union]] led by Wilton-Smyth, their coalition partners the [[Reform Party]] led by [[Esther Bennett]] and the [[Social Democratic and Co-operative Party]] under [[Zoe Halivar]] are considered the main parties running in the election.
Following [[2018 Estmerish general election|2018]], the next election was not scheduled until 2022. Reginald Wilton-Smyth made the call for a snap election on 14 April, and Parliament voted in favour on 15 April<ref name="Election Called"/>. Campaigning unofficially began with the start of {{wp|Purdah (pre-election period)|purdah}} on 18 April, but the campaign officially began with the dissolution of Parliament on 25 April<ref name="Campaigning Starts In Earnest"/>. Pensions, social security and housing were considered major issues in the campaign, with foreign and social policy also taking prominence in response to {{wp|LGBT-free zone}}s in [[Etruria]]<ref name="LGBT free zone debate">[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38673369#p38673369"RWS criticised for 'LGBT free zone' comments"]. ''[[The Chartist]]''. 22 May 2021. Retrieved 22 May 2021.</ref>. Age and opinion of leaders were considered to impact voting intention in the campaign<ref name="Honest or straight-talking"> [https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38680598#p38680598""Honest" or "Straight-talking"; what the voters think"]. ''[[The Standard]]''. 24 May 2021. Retrieved 25 May 2021.</ref>. The campaign was also notable for the prominent role that foreign leaders played in the campaign, with [[Pink Wave]] leaders endorsing and campaigning for Halivar and her party, possibly to capitalise on her momentum for their own electoral tests<ref name="All Eyes on Estmere">[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38614349#p38614349"All eyes on Estmere as domestic elections loom"]. ''[[Hennehouwe#Media|Courant]]''. 3 May 2021. Retrieved 4 May 2021.</ref>, in what has been described as the federalisation of EC politics<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics">[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38598044#p38598044"The Federalisation of Euclean Politics"]. ''[[The Continental]]''. 28 April 2021. Retrieved 28 April 2021.</ref>.


Minor national parties running in the election include [[Estmere First]] led by [[George Avery]], the [[Greens (Estmere)|Greens]] led by [[Sara Hall-Brookes]] and [[Nathan Coutanche]], and [[Estmerish Section of the Workers' International|ESWI]] led by [[Ted Barnes]], while relevant {{wp|regionalist}} parties include the [[Party of the Swathish]] led by [[Aelfwin Stringer]] and the [[Aldman Democratic Alliance]] led by [[Annika Schröder]]. A number of new parties are also contesting the election, such as [[Vox|Vox Estmere]], [[future.es]] and the [[Senior Citizens Countryside Alliance]].
The opposition [[Social Democratic and Co-operative Party]] emerged from the election as the largest party, and [[Zoe Halivar]] announced her intention to form a {{wp|minority government}} with support from smaller progressive parties<ref name = "Halivar forms govt">[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38699028#p38699028"@Halivar invited to form minority government as Wilton-Smyth concedes defeat"]. ''[[Estmerish Broadcasting Service|EBS News]]''. 31 May 2021. Retrieved 31 May 2021.</ref>. The results were the best for the SDCP since the [[1973 Estmerish general election|1973 election]], and the worst for the [[Reform Party]] since its foundation in 1980, and saw leader [[Esther Bennett]] lose her constituency seat. The governing [[Sotirian Democratic Union]] fell back, but retained a sizable vote share and attempted to form a government. The [[Greens (Estmere)|Greens]] saw a rise in their vote share, challenging Reform for third-largest party. Three new parties, [[Vox Euclea|Vox Estmere]], [[future.es]] and the [[Senior Citizens Countryside Alliance|SCCA]], won seats in Parliament for the first time.


Polling day is 27 May, and full results are likely to be announced 28 May after {{wp|party list|list votes}} have been taken into account.
Voter turnout in the election was 72.85%, up 2.4% since the last election, and the highest for a national election since [[1999 Estmerish general election|1999]]. The SDCP was seen to have reversed long-term trends by supplanting Reform as the major centre-left party, doing so by broadening its appeal and winning voters in {{wp|suburbs|suburban areas}} with a focus on social liberalism and competence<ref name = "Halivar forms govt"/>.


{{TOC limit|3}}
{{TOC limit|3}}
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On 9 March, [[Jon Mortimer]] resigned as [[Cabinet of Estmere|Secretary of State for Health and Social Affairs]] in opposition to Wilton-Smyth's handling of the pensions scandal<ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38518173#p38518173"Minister resigns; "I cannot support this govt""]. ''[[The Chartist]]''. 9 March 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.</ref>. Supported by a number of SDU grandees<ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38519890#p38519890"Govt in chaos as beckbenchers challenge RWS"]. ''[[The Chartist]]''. 15 March 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.</ref>, Mortimer lodged a formal leadership challenge with the SDU organising committee on 14 March<ref> [https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38519714#p38519714"@Politics4Every1"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 14 March 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.</ref>, which led to a closed leadership election beginning on 16 March between Mortimer and Wilton-Smyth. Wilton-Smyth narrowly won the contest on 29 March, but a majority of SDU federal MPs voted for Mortimer, which was seen as Wilton-Smyth having lost their confidence<ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38526649#p38526649"RWS narrowly wins leadership challenge"]. ''[[The Chartist]]''. 30 March 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.</ref>.
On 9 March, [[Jon Mortimer]] resigned as [[Cabinet of Estmere|Secretary of State for Health and Social Affairs]] in opposition to Wilton-Smyth's handling of the pensions scandal<ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38518173#p38518173"Minister resigns; "I cannot support this govt""]. ''[[The Chartist]]''. 9 March 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.</ref>. Supported by a number of SDU grandees<ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38519890#p38519890"Govt in chaos as beckbenchers challenge RWS"]. ''[[The Chartist]]''. 15 March 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.</ref>, Mortimer lodged a formal leadership challenge with the SDU organising committee on 14 March<ref> [https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38519714#p38519714"@Politics4Every1"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 14 March 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.</ref>, which led to a closed leadership election beginning on 16 March between Mortimer and Wilton-Smyth. Wilton-Smyth narrowly won the contest on 29 March, but a majority of SDU federal MPs voted for Mortimer, which was seen as Wilton-Smyth having lost their confidence<ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38526649#p38526649"RWS narrowly wins leadership challenge"]. ''[[The Chartist]]''. 30 March 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.</ref>.


Though Wilton-Smyth won the contest, it was seen to have damaged his government. He was seen to have lost the support of his backbenchers, and his coalition partners were reportedly seeking out a new coalition deal with the opposition under Halivar<ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38519622#p38519622"Senior Reform MPs "exploring options" with Halivar"]. ''[[The Standard]]''. 11 March 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.</ref>. Cabinet unity had also been damaged during the contest<ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38520400#p38520400"Cabinet unity "in tatters" after first leadership hustings"]. ''[[The Standard]]''. 19 March 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.</ref>. The government therefore announced late in the evening on 13 April that they would be making an announcement the day after<ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38550505#p38550505"@MoorwoodHouse"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 13 April 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.</ref>, and it was then that Wilton-Smyth called for a snap general election on 14 April, reportedly aiming to catch the opposition off-guard. Parliament voted in favour of a snap election on 15 April.
Though Wilton-Smyth won the contest, it was seen to have damaged his government. He was seen to have lost the support of his backbenchers, and his coalition partners were reportedly seeking out a new coalition deal with the opposition under Halivar<ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38519622#p38519622"Senior Reform MPs "exploring options" with Halivar"]. ''[[The Standard]]''. 11 March 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.</ref>. Cabinet unity had also been damaged during the contest<ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38520400#p38520400"Cabinet unity "in tatters" after first leadership hustings"]. ''[[The Standard]]''. 19 March 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.</ref>. The government therefore announced late in the evening on 13 April that they would be making an announcement the day after<ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38550505#p38550505"@MoorwoodHouse"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 13 April 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.</ref>, and it was then that Wilton-Smyth called for a snap general election on 14 April, reportedly aiming to catch the opposition off-guard<ref name="Election Called"/>. Parliament voted in favour of a snap election on 15 April.


==Electoral system==
==Electoral system==
Elections to the [[Chamber of Commons of Estmere|Chamber of Commons]] use the {{wp|Additional Member System}}, or AMS for short. AMS is a {{wp|mixed electoral system|mixed system}} that is {{wp|Semi-proportional representation|semi-proportional}}. Voters have two votes. One vote for a local constituency, and one vote for their preferred party in a {{wp|party list}} for each {{wp|constituent entity}}. List seats are allocated through the {{wp|D'Hondt method|Boeri method}}, with the winners of the constituency seats taken into account.  
Elections to the [[Chamber of Commons of Estmere|Chamber of Commons]] use the {{wp|Additional Member System}}, or AMS for short. AMS is a {{wp|mixed electoral system|mixed system}} that is {{wp|Semi-proportional representation|semi-proportional}}. Voters have two votes. One vote for a local constituency, and one vote for their preferred party in a {{wp|party list}} for each {{wp|constituent entity}}. List seats are allocated through the {{wp|D'Hondt method|Boeri method}}, with the winners of the constituency seats taken into account.  


To be eligible for list seats, parties must pass an {{wp|electoral threshold}} of 2.5% of the vote in a given constituent entity.
To be eligible for list seats, parties must pass an {{wp|electoral threshold}} of 2.5% of the vote in any of the constituent entities.


There are 600 total elected members of the Chamber. Of these, 400 members are elected through {{wp|First-past-the-post voting|first-past-the-post}} constituency seats, with the remaining 200 members elected through party list.
There are 600 total elected members of the Chamber. Of these, 400 members are elected through {{wp|First-past-the-post voting|first-past-the-post}} constituency seats, with the remaining 200 members elected through party list.
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{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|-
|-
| style="width: 50px;"|{{nowrap|14 April 2021}}||[[Prime Minister of Estmere|Prime Minister]] [[Reginald Wilton-Smyth]] announced his intention to hold a snap election<ref name="Election Called">[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38552474#p38552474"Reginald Wilton-Smyth calls snap election in order to "provide clarity to the nation""]. ''[[Estmerish Broadcasting Service|EBS News]]''. 14 April 2021. Retrieved 30 April 2021.</ref>
| style="width: 50px;"|{{nowrap|14 April 2021}}||[[Prime Minister of Estmere|Prime Minister]] [[Reginald Wilton-Smyth]] announced his intention to hold a snap election<ref name="Election Called"/>
|-
|-
|{{nowrap|15 April 2021}}||Bill to dissolve [[Parliament of Estmere|Parliament]] for an early election passes the [[Chamber of Commons of Estmere|Chamber of Commons]]
|{{nowrap|15 April 2021}}||Bill to dissolve [[Parliament of Estmere|Parliament]] for an early election passes the [[Chamber of Commons of Estmere|Chamber of Commons]]
Line 227: Line 226:
|{{nowrap|28 May 2021}}||Preliminary election results announced<ref name="Election Called"/>
|{{nowrap|28 May 2021}}||Preliminary election results announced<ref name="Election Called"/>
|-
|-
|{{nowrap|1 June 2021}}||Official election results announced
|{{nowrap|29 May 2021}}||Official election results announced<ref name = "Full results chirp"/>
|-
|-
|{{nowrap|3 June 2021}}||First meeting of the next Parliament
|{{nowrap|3 June 2021}}||First meeting of the next Parliament
Line 386: Line 385:
In their manifesto, launched 21 May, the Reform Party pledged to institute a plastic bag tax to tackle littering, to protect the {{wp|squeezed middle}} with no income tax rises, to legalise marijuana, fully devolve the curriculum to the states, open grammar schools up to more student from low-income backgrounds, and ensure disabled people have access to job interviews<ref name="Party manifestos"/>.
In their manifesto, launched 21 May, the Reform Party pledged to institute a plastic bag tax to tackle littering, to protect the {{wp|squeezed middle}} with no income tax rises, to legalise marijuana, fully devolve the curriculum to the states, open grammar schools up to more student from low-income backgrounds, and ensure disabled people have access to job interviews<ref name="Party manifestos"/>.


The third EBS News debate on 21 May focused on social policy, and saw leaders from six major national parties answer public-submitted questions related to gender recognition, conversion therapy, disability rights, responding to prejudice, and tackling inequality. The debate became notable when the first question related to the {{wp|LGBT-free zones}} in [[Etruria]], with Wilton-Smyth's response seen negatively<ref name="LGBT free zone debate">[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38673369#p38673369"RWS criticised for 'LGBT free zone' comments"]. ''[[The Chartist]]''. 22 May 2021. Retrieved 22 May 2021.</ref>.
The third EBS News debate on 21 May focused on social policy, and saw leaders from six major national parties answer public-submitted questions related to gender recognition, conversion therapy, disability rights, responding to prejudice, and tackling inequality. The debate became notable when the first question related to the {{wp|LGBT-free zones}} in [[Etruria]], with Wilton-Smyth's response seen negatively<ref name="LGBT free zone debate"/>.


Voters' opinion of party leaders was identified as an increasingly important component of the campaign, seemingly in contrast with prior elections. Polling undertaken by [[Chamber of Peers of Estmere|Peer Sootland]] identified that Halivar was associated with more positive terms, such as "honest" and "competent", than Wilton-Smyth, who was more likely to be identified as "incompetent" or "smug"<ref name="Honest or straight-talking"> [https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38680598#p38680598""Honest" or "Straight-talking"; what the voters think"]. ''[[The Standard]]''. 24 May 2021. Retrieved 25 May 2021.</ref>. It has been suggested that a reasoning for this is Wilton-Smyth's handling of the pensions scandal, which narrowed his appeal as he was no longer seen as economically competent<ref> [https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38682360#p38682360"@Annie_Kendall"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 25 May 2021. Retrieved 25 May 2021.</ref>. Notably, perceptions of the party leaders correlated with age, with younger voters more positive of Halivar and older voters more positive of Wilton-Smyth, suggesting that age might be playing an important part in predicting voting intention<ref name="Honest or straight-talking"/>.
Voters' opinion of party leaders was identified as an increasingly important component of the campaign, seemingly in contrast with prior elections. Polling undertaken by [[Chamber of Peers of Estmere|Peer Sootland]] identified that Halivar was associated with more positive terms, such as "honest" and "competent", than Wilton-Smyth, who was more likely to be identified as "incompetent" or "smug"<ref name="Honest or straight-talking"/>. It has been suggested that a reasoning for this is Wilton-Smyth's handling of the pensions scandal, which narrowed his appeal as he was no longer seen as economically competent<ref> [https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38682360#p38682360"@Annie_Kendall"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 25 May 2021. Retrieved 25 May 2021.</ref>. Notably, perceptions of the party leaders correlated with age, with younger voters more positive of Halivar and older voters more positive of Wilton-Smyth, suggesting that age might be playing an important part in predicting voting intention<ref name="Honest or straight-talking"/>.


===Television debates===
===Television debates===
Line 448: Line 447:
|[[National Independent Television|NITV Weald]]
|[[National Independent Television|NITV Weald]]
|Richard Gunnarsson
|Richard Gunnarsson
| Debate in the [[Old English|Swathish language]]
| Debate in the {{wp|Old English|Swathish language}}
| {{Yes|'''P'''<br/>{{smaller|{{nowrap|[[Reginald Wilton-Smyth|Wilton-Smyth]]}}}}}}
| {{Yes|'''P'''<br/>{{smaller|{{nowrap|[[Reginald Wilton-Smyth|Wilton-Smyth]]}}}}}}
| {{Yes|'''P'''<br/>{{smaller|[[Zoe Halivar|Halivar]]}}}}
| {{Yes|'''P'''<br/>{{smaller|[[Zoe Halivar|Halivar]]}}}}
Line 474: Line 473:
|[[National Independent Television|NITV d'Estme]]
|[[National Independent Television|NITV d'Estme]]
|Julia Montfort
|Julia Montfort
| Debate in the [[Jèrriais|Flurian language]]
| Debate in the {{wp|Jèrriais|Flurian language}}
| {{Yes|'''P'''<br/>{{smaller|{{nowrap|[[Reginald Wilton-Smyth|Wilton-Smyth]]}}}}}}
| {{Yes|'''P'''<br/>{{smaller|{{nowrap|[[Reginald Wilton-Smyth|Wilton-Smyth]]}}}}}}
| {{Yes|'''P'''<br/>{{smaller|[[Zoe Halivar|Halivar]]}}}}
| {{Yes|'''P'''<br/>{{smaller|[[Zoe Halivar|Halivar]]}}}}
Line 522: Line 521:
| style="background:#A2B2C2; color:black; text-align:center;" |'''NI'''
| style="background:#A2B2C2; color:black; text-align:center;" |'''NI'''
| <ref name="LGBT free zone debate"/>
| <ref name="LGBT free zone debate"/>
|-
|25 May
|[[National Independent Television|NITV]]
|Paul Shanelly
| Leaders' debate
| {{Yes|'''P'''<br/>{{smaller|{{nowrap|[[Reginald Wilton-Smyth|Wilton-Smyth]]}}}}}}
| {{Yes|'''P'''<br/>{{smaller|[[Zoe Halivar|Halivar]]}}}}
| {{Yes|'''P'''<br/>{{smaller|[[Esther Bennett|Bennett]]}}}}
| {{Yes|'''P'''<br/>{{smaller|[[George Avery|Avery]]}}}}
| {{Yes|'''P'''<br/>{{smaller|{{nowrap|[[Sara Hall-Brookes|Hall-Brookes]]}}}}}}
| {{Yes|'''P'''<br/>{{smaller|[[Ted Barnes|Barnes]]}}}}
| {{Yes|'''P'''<br/>{{smaller|[[Aelfwin Stringer|Stringer]]}}}}
|
|-
|-
|}
|}
Line 536: Line 548:
A number of organisations, individuals and newspapers have made endorsements on behalf of parties and individual candidates in the election.  
A number of organisations, individuals and newspapers have made endorsements on behalf of parties and individual candidates in the election.  


Notably, a significant number of {{wp|head of government|heads of governments}} of [[Euclean Community]] members nations associated with the [[Pink Wave]] made unprecedented interventions in the election to support their preferred candidate for Prime Minister, [[Zoe Halivar]], and her party. This has been described as part of a 'federalisation' of Euclean politics<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics">[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38598044#p38598044"The Federalisation of Euclean Politics"]. ''[[The Continental]]''. 28 April 2021. Retrieved 28 April 2021.</ref>. It has been suggested that part of the reason for this is that other ASE parties hope to capitalise on the momemtum of the SDCP in a 'pink renaissance' to win electoral contests in their own countries<ref name="All Eyes on Estmere">[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38614349#p38614349"All eyes on Estmere as domestic elections loom"]. ''[[Hennehouwe#Media|Courant]]''. 3 May 2021. Retrieved 4 May 2021.</ref>.
Notably, a significant number of {{wp|head of government|heads of governments}} of [[Euclean Community]] members nations associated with the [[Pink Wave]] made unprecedented interventions in the election to support their preferred candidate for Prime Minister, [[Zoe Halivar]], and her party. This has been described as part of a 'federalisation' of Euclean politics<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/>. It has been suggested that part of the reason for this is that other ASE parties hope to capitalise on the momemtum of the SDCP in a 'pink renaissance' to win electoral contests in their own countries<ref name="All Eyes on Estmere"/>.


===Newspapers and magazines===
===Newspapers and magazines===
Line 695: Line 707:
| style="background-color:#d71b1b |
| style="background-color:#d71b1b |
| {{Nowrap|[[Social Democratic and Co-operative Party]]}}
| {{Nowrap|[[Social Democratic and Co-operative Party]]}}
| Estmerish-language Alslandic newspaper.
| Swathish-language Alslandic newspaper.
|-
|-
| ''[[Borland (Kylaris)#Media|The Norland Post]]''
| ''[[Borland (Kylaris)#Media|The Norland Post]]''
Line 703: Line 715:
|-
|-
| ''[[Hjoed|Today]]''
| ''[[Hjoed|Today]]''
| style="background-color:#3083b7 |
| style="background-color:#008142 |
| {{Nowrap|[[Sotirian Democratic Union]]}}
| {{Nowrap|[[Party of the Swathish]]}}
| Estmerish-language version of Alslandic newspaper ''[[Hjoed]]''.
| Swathish-language version of Alslandic newspaper ''[[Hjoed]]''.
|-
|-
| ''[[Borland (Kylaris)#Media|Westhaven Journal]]''
| ''[[Borland (Kylaris)#Media|Westhaven Journal]]''
Line 740: Line 752:
* [[Sofija Anasdohter]], Azmaran politician and incumbent [[Government of Azmara|Thingspeaker of Azmara]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/><ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38595971#p38595971"@AZThingspeaker"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.</ref>
* [[Sofija Anasdohter]], Azmaran politician and incumbent [[Government of Azmara|Thingspeaker of Azmara]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/><ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38595971#p38595971"@AZThingspeaker"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.</ref>
* [[Alexandra Aurelia]], Amathian politician and leader of the [[League of Equalists and Democrats (Amathia)|League of Equalists and Democrats]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/>
* [[Alexandra Aurelia]], Amathian politician and leader of the [[League of Equalists and Democrats (Amathia)|League of Equalists and Democrats]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/>
* {{wp|Mother Mother|Baba Baba}}, indie rock band
* {{wp|Mother Mother|Baba Baba}}, indie rock band<ref name="SDCP endorsements">[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38688238#p38688238"@SDCP"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 27 May 2021. Retrieved 27 May 2021.</ref>
* [[Andrew Bohn]], Nuvanian politician and incumbent [[Nuvania|Chief Minister of Nuvania]]<ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38600934#p38600934"@AndrewBohn"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 29 April 2021. Retrieved 29 April 2021.</ref>
* [[Andrew Bohn]], Nuvanian politician and incumbent [[Nuvania|Chief Minister of Nuvania]]<ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38600934#p38600934"@AndrewBohn"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 29 April 2021. Retrieved 29 April 2021.</ref>
* [[Estmere#Media|Len Dawson]], journalist
* [[Estmere#Media|Len Dawson]], journalist<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/>
* [[Monique Degar-Abdulrashid]], Gaullican politician and incumbent [[Gaullica|President of Gaullica]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/><ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38590616#p38590616"@PresidentofGaullica"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 25 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.</ref>
* [[Monique Degar-Abdulrashid]], Gaullican politician and incumbent [[Gaullica|President of Gaullica]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/><ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38590616#p38590616"@PresidentofGaullica"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 25 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.</ref>
* {{wp|Arctic Monkeys|Desert Apes}}, rock band
* {{wp|Arctic Monkeys|Desert Apes}}, rock band<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/>
* [[Faculty (TV series)|Auro De Maio]], [[Etruria|Etrurian-born]] actor
* [[Faculty (TV series)|Auro De Maio]], [[Etruria|Etrurian-born]] actor<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/>
* [[Estmere#Media|Penny Dorchester]], journalist and economist (''Also endorsed the Reform Party'')
* [[Estmere#Media|Penny Dorchester]], journalist and economist<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/> (''Also endorsed the Reform Party'')
* [[Estmere#Sport|Ian Durras]], rugby player
* [[Estmere#Sport|Ian Durras]], rugby player<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/>
* [[Esmeralda Falcão]], Paretian politician and leader of the [[Social Democrats (Paretia)|Social Democrats of Paretia]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/><ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38600270#p38600270"@EsmeraldaF"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 28 April 2021. Retrieved 29 April 2021.</ref>
* [[Esmeralda Falcão]], Paretian politician and leader of the [[Social Democrats (Paretia)|Social Democrats of Paretia]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/><ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38600270#p38600270"@EsmeraldaF"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 28 April 2021. Retrieved 29 April 2021.</ref>
* [[List of Premiers of Alsland|Jonathan Fraser]], Alslandic politician and former Premier of Alsland
* [[List of Premiers of Alsland|Jonathan Fraser]], Alslandic politician and former Premier of Alsland
* {{wp|Stormzy|Gustzy}}, musician
* {{wp|Stormzy|Gustzy}}, musician<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/>
* {{wp|Amy Winehouse|Anna Harrington}}, musician
* {{wp|Amy Winehouse|Anna Harrington}}, musician<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/>
* [[Luise Höcherl]], Weranian politician and leader of the [[Social Democratic Radical Party of Werania|SRPO]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/>
* [[Luise Höcherl]], Weranian politician and leader of the [[Social Democratic Radical Party of Werania|SRPO]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/>
* [[Clara Hverman]], Borish politician and leader of the [[New Left (Borland)|New Left]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/>
* [[Clara Hverman]], Borish politician and leader of the [[New Left (Borland)|New Left]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/>
* [[Eryk Jorśsun]], Azmaran politician and former [[Government of Azmara|Thingspeaker of Azmara]]
* [[Eryk Jorśsun]], Azmaran politician and former [[Government of Azmara|Thingspeaker of Azmara]]
* {{wp|Say Anything (band)|Just Tell Me}}, rock band
* {{wp|Say Anything (band)|Just Tell Me}}, rock band<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/>
* [[Estmere#Media|Annie Kendall]], journalist and activist
* [[Estmere#Media|Annie Kendall]], journalist and activist<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/>
* [[Faculty (TV series)|Dani Leiberman]], actor and activist
* [[Faculty (TV series)|Dani Leiberman]], actor and activist<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/>
* [[Stiofán Mac Suibhne]], Caldish politician and incumbent [[Taoiseach of Caldia]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/><ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38592089#p38592089"@sms"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 25 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.</ref>
* [[Stiofán Mac Suibhne]], Caldish politician and incumbent [[Taoiseach of Caldia]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/><ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38592089#p38592089"@sms"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 25 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.</ref>
* [[Estmere#Media|Cate Marshal]], journalist
* [[Estmere#Media|Cate Marshal]], journalist<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/>
* [[Irena Mesić]], Slirnian politician and incumbent [[Premier of Slirnia]]<ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38605971#p38605971"The road ahead and an open door"]. ''[[Drazovice Diplomatique]]''. 30 April 2021. Retrieved 30 April 2021.</ref>
* [[Irena Mesić]], Slirnian politician and incumbent [[Premier of Slirnia]]<ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38605971#p38605971"The road ahead and an open door"]. ''[[Drazovice Diplomatique]]''. 30 April 2021. Retrieved 30 April 2021.</ref>
* {{wp|Lin-Manuel Miranda|Louis Matthew Montgomery}}, composer and playwright
* {{wp|Lin-Manuel Miranda|Louis Matthew Montgomery}}, composer and playwright<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/>
* [[List of Premiers of Alsland|Ottila Möller]], Alslandic politician and incumbent [[List of Premiers of Alsland|Premier of Alsland]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/>
* [[List of Premiers of Alsland|Ottila Möller]], Alslandic politician and incumbent [[List of Premiers of Alsland|Premier of Alsland]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/>
* {{wp|My Chemical Romance|Periodic Ways}}, rock band
* {{wp|My Chemical Romance|Periodic Ways}}, rock band<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/>
* [[Brooke Richards]], television producer and screenwriter, creator of [[Faculty (TV series)|Faculty]]
* [[Brooke Richards]], television producer and screenwriter, creator of [[Faculty (TV series)|Faculty]]<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/>
* [[President of Alsland|Martina Scott]], Alslandic politician and former Premier and [[President of Alsland]]
* [[President of Alsland|Martina Scott]], Alslandic politician and former Premier and [[President of Alsland]]
* [[Estmere#Media|Gopal Singh]], journalist
* [[Estmere#Media|Gopal Singh]], journalist<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/>
* {{wp|Skepta|Suspa}}, musician
* {{wp|Skepta|Suspa}}, musician<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/>
* [[Mathéo Turzyna]], Gaullican politician and incumbent [[Gaullica|Premier of Gaullica]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/>
* [[Mathéo Turzyna]], Gaullican politician and incumbent [[Gaullica|Premier of Gaullica]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/>
* [[Faculty (TV series)|Salenna Tyson]], actress
* [[Faculty (TV series)|Salenna Tyson]], actress<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/>
* [[Jean Vallette]], Gaullican politician and former President of Gaullica<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/>
* [[Jean Vallette]], Gaullican politician and former President of Gaullica<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/>
* [[Rupert van Bleiswijk]], Hennish politician and incumbent [[Hennehouwe|Premier of Hennehouwe]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/><ref name="All Eyes on Estmere"/><ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38605619#p38605619"@rvanbleiswijk"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 30 April 2021.</ref>
* [[Rupert van Bleiswijk]], Hennish politician and incumbent [[Hennehouwe|Premier of Hennehouwe]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/><ref name="All Eyes on Estmere"/><ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38605619#p38605619"@rvanbleiswijk"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 30 April 2021.</ref>
* {{wp|Yungblud|YBRV}}, musician
* {{wp|Yungblud|YBRV}}, musician<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/>
* {{wp|Lizzo|Vivi}}, musician
* {{wp|Lizzo|Vivi}}, musician<ref name="SDCP endorsements"/>
* [[Bonne Zijlstra]], Alslandic politician and former [[President of the Euclean Community]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/>
* [[Bonne Zijlstra]], Alslandic politician and former [[President of the Euclean Community]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/>
{{colend}}
{{colend}}
Line 868: Line 880:


[[File:2021 Estmerish election opinion polls minor parties.png|thumb|850px|centre|2021 Estmerish election opinion polls.png|950px|Graphical summary of the average of polls conducted for the general election for minor parties.]]
[[File:2021 Estmerish election opinion polls minor parties.png|thumb|850px|centre|2021 Estmerish election opinion polls.png|950px|Graphical summary of the average of polls conducted for the general election for minor parties.]]
===Exit poll===
An {{wp|exit poll}} was conducted by {{wp|YouGov|YouPoll}} on behalf of the [[Estmere#Media|News Association]], and was published at 10pm after voting had finished. It predicted that the [[Social Democratic and Co-operative Party]] was the largest party, with the [[Sotirian Democratic Union]] and [[Reform Party]] coalition losing their overall majority<ref name = "Liveblog">[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38688468#p38688468"Election 2021 - Liveblog"]. ''[[Estmerish Broadcasting Service|EBS News]]''. 27 May 2021. Retrieved 27 May 2021.</ref>. The results were close to the exit poll, though it slightly over-estimated the [[Sotirian Democratic Union|SDU]] and [[Reform Party|Reform]] seats, and underestimated the [[Social Democratic and Co-operative Party|SDCP]] and new party ([[Vox Euclea|Vox]], [[future.es]], [[Senior Citizen Countryside Alliance|SCCA]]) seats<ref name = "Recap & prelim results">[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38691959#p38691959"Election night recap and analysis of the constituency & preliminary list results"]. ''[[Estmerish Broadcasting Service|EBS News]]''. 28 May 2021. Retrieved 28 May 2021.</ref><ref name = "Full results chirp"/>.
{| class="wikitable"
! colspan="2" style="vertical-align:top;" |Parties
! style="vertical-align:top;" |Seats
! style="vertical-align:top;" |Change
|-
| style="background:#d71b1b;" |
|{{Nowrap|[[Social Democratic and Co-operative Party]]}}
| style="text-align:right;" |250
| align=right| {{increase}} 63
|-
| style="background:#3083b7;" |
|{{Nowrap|[[Sotirian Democratic Union]]}}
| style="text-align:right;" |205
| align=right| {{decrease}} 11
|-
| style="background:#e9a735;" |
|{{Nowrap|[[Reform Party]]}}
| style="text-align:right;" |47
| align=right| {{decrease}} 54
|-
| style="background:#6AB023;" |
|{{Nowrap|[[Greens (Estmere)|Greens]]}}
| style="text-align:right;" |36
|align=right | {{increase}} 7
|-
| style="background:#DC247F;" |
|{{Nowrap|[[Estmerish Section of the Workers' International]]}}
| style="text-align:right;" |19
| align=right| {{increase}} 4
|-
| style="background:#008142;" |
|{{Nowrap|[[Party of the Swathish]]}}
| style="text-align:right;" |13
| align=right| {{decrease}} 2
|-
| style="background:#24a8e0;" |
|{{Nowrap|[[Senior Citizens Countryside Alliance]]}}
| style="text-align:right;" |12
| align=right| {{increase}} 12
|-
| style="background:#0000ff;" |
|{{Nowrap|[[Vox|Vox Estmere]]}}
| style="text-align:right;" |11
| align=right| {{increase}} 11
|-
| style="background:#C136A3;" |
|{{Nowrap|[[future.es]]}}
| style="text-align:right;" |5
| align=right| {{increase}} 5
|-
| style="background:#84d9e5;" |
|{{Nowrap|[[Aldman Democratic Alliance]]}}
| style="text-align:right;" |2
| align=right| {{steady}}
|-
| style="background:black;" |
|{{Nowrap|[[Estmere First]]}}
| style="text-align:right;" |0
| align=right| {{decrease}} 35
|-
! colspan=4 | SDCP 51 short of a majority
|}
==Results==
Constituency results came in through the night, with the first constituency to declare being [[Parliament of Estmere#Constituencies|Longwood East]] at 11:16pm, beating [[Parliament of Estmere#Constituencies|Rasifax]] and [[Parliament of Estmere#Constituencies|Ramsfield West]] who declared second and third respectively. [[Parliament of Estmere#Constituencies|Strool]] was gthe last constituency to declare, at 1pm the following day, following four recounts<ref name = "Liveblog"/>. The full constituency results and preliminary {{wp|party list}} results were announced on 28 May<ref name = "Recap & prelim results"/>. For constituencies, the SDCP were on 195, the SDU on 148, Reform on 37, the Greens on 8, ESWI on 1, PS on 9, the ADA on 2 and all others on 0. The preliminary party list results showed the SDCP between 54-63, the SDU between 44-59, Reform between 1-13, the Greens between 27-35, ESWI between 14-26, PS between 0-3, Vox between 4-13, SCCA between 7-19, future.es between 2-11 future.es, and all others on 0<ref name = "Recap & prelim results"/>.
The full official results were announced on 29 May<ref name = "Full results chirp"/>, showing the [[Social Democratic and Co-operative Party]] on 253 seats, outperforming the exit poll, with the [[Sotirian Democratic Union]] on 199 and the [[Reform Party]] on 44, both underperforming the exit poll. The SDCP was the largest party by a significant margin, and was widely reported to have won the election. It emerged as the largest party for the first time in a national election since the [[1973 Estmerish general election|1973 election]], and [[Zoe Halivar]] announced her intention to form a {{wp|minority government}} with an informal agreement of support from Reform, the [[Greens (Estmere)|Greens]] and [[Estmerish Section of the Workers' International|ESWI]]. This was in spite of [[Reginald Wilton-Smyth]] also attempting to secure a majority in the Chamber for his incumbent government. Wilton-Smyth conceded defeat on 31 May, and Halivar was invited by [[President of Estmere|President]] [[Alice Roberts]] to form a government<ref name = "Halivar forms govt"/>.
{| style="width:80%; text-align:center;"
|+ ↓
|- style="color:white;"
| style="background:#d71b1b; width:42.17%;" | '''253'''
| style="background:#6AB023; width:6.67%;" | '''40'''
| style="background:#DC247F; width:3.50%;" | '''21'''
| style="background:#e9a735; width:7.33%;" | '''44'''
| style="background:#3083b7; width:33.17%;" | '''199'''
| style="background:#DDDDDD; width:7.17%;" | '''43'''
|-
| [[Social Democratic and Co-operative Party|{{color|#d71b1b|'''Social Democratic and Co-operative Party'''}}]]
| [[Greens (Estmere)|{{color|#6AB023|'''Greens}}''']]
| [[Estmerish Section of the Workers' International|{{color|#DC247F|'''ESWI}}''']]
| [[Reform Party|{{color|#e9a735|'''Reform'''}}]]
| [[Sotirian Democratic Union|{{color|#3083b7|'''Sotirian Democratic Union'''}}]]
| {{color|#DDDDDD|'''Others'''}}
|}
{{Election results
|image=[[File:2021_Estmere_Parliament.svg]]
|firstround=Constituency
|secondround=Party
|party1=[[Social Democratic and Co-operative Party]]|color1=#d71b1b|votes1=13805572||votes1_2=12729101|seats1=253|sc1={{increase}}66
|party2=[[Sotirian Democratic Union]]|color2=#3083b7|votes2=10529099|votes2_2=10032054|seats2=199|sc2={{decrease}}17
|party3=[[Reform Party]]|color3=#e9a735|votes3=2780225|votes3_2=2185905|seats3=44|sc3={{decrease}}57
|party4=[[Greens (Estmere)|Greens]]|color4=#6AB023|votes4=1417853|votes4_2=2116405|seats4=40|sc4={{increase}}11
|party5=[[Estmerish Section of the Workers' International]]|color5=#DC247F|votes5=610293|votes5_2=1156376|seats5=21|sc5={{increase}}6
|party6=[[Senior Citizens Countryside Alliance]]|color6=#24a8e0|votes6=332887||votes6_2=793954|seats6=14|sc6=New
|party7=[[Party of the Swathish]]|color7=#008142|votes7=591799|votes7_2=531767|seats7=10|sc7={{decrease}}5
|party8=[[Vox Euclea|Vox Estmere]]|color8=#0000ff|votes8=228089|votes8_2=583917|seats8=10|sc8=New
|party9=[[future.es]]|color9=#C136A3|votes9=197266|votes9_2=384706|seats9=7|sc9=New
|party10=[[Aldman Democratic Alliance]]|color10=#84d9e5|votes10=126374|votes10_2=104010|seats10=2|sc10={{steady}}0
|party11=[[Estmere First]]|color11=black|votes11=151032|votes11_2=115587|seats11=0|sc11={{decrease}}35
|party12=All other parties|color12=#DDDDDD|votes12=50008|votes12_2=84925|seats12=|sc12=
|invalid=2391
|total_sc=600
|electorate=42308455
|invalid2=4183
|total_sc2=
|electorate242308455
|source=[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38693464#p38693464 EBS News Online]
}}


==References==
==References==
{{reflist}}
{{Estmere elections}}

Revision as of 16:52, 8 July 2021

2021 Estmerish general election

← 2018 27 May 2021 Next →

All 600 seats in the Chamber of Commons
301 seats needed for a majority
Registered42,308,455
Turnout30,822,889 (72.85%; Increase 2.4 pp)
  First party Second party Third party
  Official portrait of Lisa Nandy crop 2.jpg Official portrait of Mr David Davis crop 2.jpg Kirsty Williams AM (28092338171) (cropped).jpg
Leader Zoe Halivar Reginald Wilton-Smyth Esther Bennett
Party SDCP SDU Reform
Leader since 22 May 2016 23 April 2018 11 October 2014
Leader's seat Harbrough Hillside Newchurch and Harrendole Tolbury Outer
(lost)
Last election 187 216 101
Seats before 184 215 99
Seats won 253 199 44
Seat change Increase66 Decrease17 Decrease57
Constituency vote 13,805,572 10,529,099 2,780,225
% and swing 44.79% Increase11.09% 34.16% Decrease2.64% 9.02% Decrease9.61%
Party vote 12,729,101 10,032,054 2,185,905
% and swing 41.30% Increase10.40% 32.55% Decrease3.05% 7.09% Decrease6.78%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  Molly Scott Cato, 2016 (cropped).jpg
Richard Burgon, 2020 Labour Party deputy leadership election hustings, Bristol.jpg
Eleanor Laing, MP for Epping Forest.jpg
Leader Sara Hall-Brookes
(Lead Candidate)
Ted Barnes Dorris Tippery
Party Greens ESWI SCCA
Leader since 7 April 2015 17 January 2019 3 January 2021
Leader's seat Tendersea Batterly and Nunling Flurland
Last election 29 15 0
Seats before 29 14 0
Seats won 40 21 14
Seat change Increase11 Increase6 Increase14
Constituency vote 1,417,853 610,293 332,887
% and swing 4.60% Increase0.70% 1.98% Decrease0.02% 1.08% Increase1.08%
Party vote 2,116,405 1,156,376 793,954
% and swing 6.87% Increase1.97% 3.75% Increase1.25% 2.58% Increase2.58%

Prime Minister before election

Reginald Wilton-Smyth
SDU

Prime Minister after election

Zoe Halivar
SDCP

The 2021 Estmerish general election was held on 27 May 2021. It was a snap election, called for by Prime Minister Reginald Wilton-Smyth on 14 April with the intention of providing clarity following the gambled pensions scandal[1]. All 600 Members of Parliament in the Chamber of Commons were elected. Official results were released on 29 May[2].

Following 2018, the next election was not scheduled until 2022. Reginald Wilton-Smyth made the call for a snap election on 14 April, and Parliament voted in favour on 15 April[1]. Campaigning unofficially began with the start of purdah on 18 April, but the campaign officially began with the dissolution of Parliament on 25 April[3]. Pensions, social security and housing were considered major issues in the campaign, with foreign and social policy also taking prominence in response to LGBT-free zones in Etruria[4]. Age and opinion of leaders were considered to impact voting intention in the campaign[5]. The campaign was also notable for the prominent role that foreign leaders played in the campaign, with Pink Wave leaders endorsing and campaigning for Halivar and her party, possibly to capitalise on her momentum for their own electoral tests[6], in what has been described as the federalisation of EC politics[7].

The opposition Social Democratic and Co-operative Party emerged from the election as the largest party, and Zoe Halivar announced her intention to form a minority government with support from smaller progressive parties[8]. The results were the best for the SDCP since the 1973 election, and the worst for the Reform Party since its foundation in 1980, and saw leader Esther Bennett lose her constituency seat. The governing Sotirian Democratic Union fell back, but retained a sizable vote share and attempted to form a government. The Greens saw a rise in their vote share, challenging Reform for third-largest party. Three new parties, Vox Estmere, future.es and the SCCA, won seats in Parliament for the first time.

Voter turnout in the election was 72.85%, up 2.4% since the last election, and the highest for a national election since 1999. The SDCP was seen to have reversed long-term trends by supplanting Reform as the major centre-left party, doing so by broadening its appeal and winning voters in suburban areas with a focus on social liberalism and competence[8].

Background

The previous 2018 election saw the governing Sotirian Democratic Union gain seats, with newly-elected leader Reginald Wilton-Smyth seen to have breathed new life into the party. The party continued their coalition deal with the Reform Party under Esther Bennett, but the opposition Social Democratic and Co-operative Party under Zoe Halivar also advanced in the election, emerging stronger than before.

Gambled pensions scandal

News of the gambled pensions scandal broke on 8 February 2021, when Penny Dorchester of the Economic Review published an article which relayed information from an anynomous whistleblower from the Treasury, revealing that government records showed discrepencies between annual pensions contributions and the overall ringfenced pension pot, suggesting that a quarter of the fund was missing[9]. Both the Review[10] and Leader of the Opposition Zoe Halivar[11] asked the Prime Minister where the money was, with Halivar raising the issue in Prime Minister's Questions, and the SDCP leader called for a transparent public investigation[12]. The Prime Minister initially dismissed the claims as "baseless yellow journalism".

On 24 February 2021 The Chartist reported that another whistleblower had contacted them, revealing that the pensions had been "gambled" in a risky stock market investment against the advice of the Treasury. The money had been invested with Frobisher-Green Management, which defaulted on its debts earlier in the month. At least €3.5 billion had been lost in the investment[13]. Polls showed that the public did not believe that the claims were "baseless", as the PM had suggested. On 25 February, in response to the allegations, the government released a statement on the scandal, which was seen as underwhelming, urging the public not to panic and to trust in the process[14][15]. Halivar once again called for an investigation and asserted that public trust was diminishing[16].

Mortimer's leadership challenge

On 9 March, Jon Mortimer resigned as Secretary of State for Health and Social Affairs in opposition to Wilton-Smyth's handling of the pensions scandal[17]. Supported by a number of SDU grandees[18], Mortimer lodged a formal leadership challenge with the SDU organising committee on 14 March[19], which led to a closed leadership election beginning on 16 March between Mortimer and Wilton-Smyth. Wilton-Smyth narrowly won the contest on 29 March, but a majority of SDU federal MPs voted for Mortimer, which was seen as Wilton-Smyth having lost their confidence[20].

Though Wilton-Smyth won the contest, it was seen to have damaged his government. He was seen to have lost the support of his backbenchers, and his coalition partners were reportedly seeking out a new coalition deal with the opposition under Halivar[21]. Cabinet unity had also been damaged during the contest[22]. The government therefore announced late in the evening on 13 April that they would be making an announcement the day after[23], and it was then that Wilton-Smyth called for a snap general election on 14 April, reportedly aiming to catch the opposition off-guard[1]. Parliament voted in favour of a snap election on 15 April.

Electoral system

Elections to the Chamber of Commons use the Additional Member System, or AMS for short. AMS is a mixed system that is semi-proportional. Voters have two votes. One vote for a local constituency, and one vote for their preferred party in a party list for each constituent entity. List seats are allocated through the Boeri method, with the winners of the constituency seats taken into account.

To be eligible for list seats, parties must pass an electoral threshold of 2.5% of the vote in any of the constituent entities.

There are 600 total elected members of the Chamber. Of these, 400 members are elected through first-past-the-post constituency seats, with the remaining 200 members elected through party list.

301 seats are required for a majority. The party that recieves the most votes usually forms the government, but due to the proportional nature of the system it is unlikely for a single party to recieve a majority on its own. As such, coalition governments and minority government are common, and it is possible for the largest party to be excluded from government.

The 2021 election will use the constituency boundaries first drawn for the 2012 general election. This will be the fourth general election to use these constituency boundaries. The constituencies are overdue for a boundary review, with new boundaries legally-required before 2022, and so it is likely this will be the last general election to use these constituency boundaries.

Voting eligibility

In order to vote in the election, voters had to meet the criteria to be considered eligible, and register to vote before midnight 13 May, two weeks prior to polling day. Eligible voters had to be;

  • aged 18 or older on polling day
  • an Estmerish or Euclean Community citizen
  • permanently resident in Estmere, or owning property in Estmere
  • not excluded due to legal reasons, such as;

Voters could be registered to multiple constituencies through multiple residences, but can only vote in one constituency. Overseas voters vote as if living at their last Estmerish address.

Timetable

Key dates in the election are listed below:

14 April 2021 Prime Minister Reginald Wilton-Smyth announced his intention to hold a snap election[1]
15 April 2021 Bill to dissolve Parliament for an early election passes the Chamber of Commons
18 April 2021 Purdah begins[1]
25 April 2021 Parliament is officially dissolved for the election by President Alice Roberts[3]
25 April 2021 Campaigning officialy begins[3]
27 April 2021 First televised debate[24]
29 April 2021 Deadline for party list nominations
30 April 2021 Deadline for constituency candidate nominations
12 May 2021 Last day to register to vote
27 May 2021 Polling day
28 May 2021 Preliminary election results announced[1]
29 May 2021 Official election results announced[2]
3 June 2021 First meeting of the next Parliament

Parties

At the end of the 2018 parliament, eight political parties had representation in the Chamber of Commons. The three largest parties in Estmere are the Sotirian Democratic Union, the Social Democratic and Co-operative Party and the Reform Party, together comprising just under 85% of the seats in the Chamber, and it is widely expected that these parties will come out on top after the election.

Other relevant national parties include Estmere First, the Greens and the Estmerish Section of the Workers' International, all of which currently have Parliamentary representation. A number of smaller, newer parties are also contesting a national election for the first time, including Vox Estmere, future.es and the Senior Citizens Countryside Alliance. Two regionalist parties, the Party of the Swathish and the Aldman Democratic Alliance, are contesting a select number of constituency seats based on the distribution of Swathish and Aldman speakers respectively.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2018 general election result Seats at dissolution
Votes (%) Seats
Constituency Party list
Sotirian Democratic Union Conservatism
Sotirian democracy
Reginald Wilton-Smyth 36.8 35.6
216 / 600
215 / 600
Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Social democracy
Democratic socialism
Zoe Halivar 33.7 30.9
187 / 600
184 / 600
Reform Party Liberalism
Social liberalism
Esther Bennett 15.8 16.7
101 / 600
99 / 600
Estmere First Right-wing populism
Estmerish nationalism
George Avery 4.3 5.8
35 / 600
29 / 600
Greens Green politics
Progressivism
Sara Hall-Brookes
Nathan Coutanche
3.9 4.9
29 / 600
29 / 600
Party of the Swathish Swathish nationalism
Social democracy
Aelfwin Stringer 2.5 2.6
15 / 600
15 / 600
Estmerish Section of the Workers' International Council socialism
Anti-capitalism
Ted Barnes 2.0 2.5
15 / 600
14 / 600
Aldman Democratic Alliance Aldman regionalism
Social liberalism
Annika Schröder 0.4 0.4
2 / 600
2 / 600
Vox Estmere Euclofederalism
Social liberalism
Marcello Schipani
Kat Rodham
Did not exist
0 / 600
future.es Future politics
E-democracy
Nate Foreman Did not exist
0 / 600
Senior Citizens Countryside Alliance Pensioners' interests
Agrarianism
Dorris Tippery Did not exist
0 / 600

Campaign

An SDCP rally in Bouley in April. Rallies are common in Estmerish election campaigns.

The campaign officially began on 25 April[3], but some 'light' campaigning had started as soon as purdah began on 18 April[1].

Reform and Estmere First both launched their campaigns on 26 April, in Colton and St Richards respectively. The Reform Party focused the launch of their campaign on their "moderating influence" on the SDU-led coalition, and pointed to a number of government successes in departments headed by their ministers. Estmere First started their campaign with a pledge to reduce net immigration to 0%[25].

The first television debate between party leaders was held on 27 April, hosted by EBS News, and subject to EBS broadcasting regulations. Aelfwin Stringer of the Party of the Swathish criticised the regulations as "unfair" to regionalist parties. The debate was described as "messy", and polls showed that no party leader was considered to have won the debate by a majority of voters. Halivar was rated marginally ahead of the other candidates[24].

Most major parties launched their official campaigns in the last week of April. The SDCP officially launched their campaign on 29 April, promising to resolve the pensions scandal and tackle the housing crisis, in order to bring "real change" to Estmere[25]. The SDU, Greens and ESWI all launched their campaigns officially on 30 April. The SDU promised to continue the economic recovery and to mtaintain Estmere's presence abroad in support of liberal democracy. The Greens promised to tackle climate change, and ESWI promised to end austerity[25].

Estmere First launched their manifesto on 15 May, with George Avery pledging to drop the Euclo, require companies to advertise jobs to Estmerish citizens first, enact a referendum on restoring the death penalty, prmote Estmerish pride in schools, stop foreign aid payments, end same-sex marriage, protect single-sex spaces and promote Estmere as a Sotirian country[26].

SDU manifesto cover.
SDCP manifesto cover.

On 18 May, Reginald Wilton-Smyth released the SDU manifesto entitled Sensibility and Spine in Colton, revealing the party's platform[27]. Headline policy committments included a freeze on VAT, a comprehensive reform of inheritance tax, the capping of yearly net immigration at 75,000, a promise to 'foster national pride' in the Estmerish curriculum, and an opposition the 'federalisation' of the Euclean Community[28]. The manifesto also pledged to cap benefit payments, lift the tax bracket for poorer earners, protect Estmerish manufacturers, reform immigration law to allow for the deportation of immigrants who commit crimes, and opposition to Tsabaran refugee quotas. The party also promised to repay pensions lost in the pensions scandal[26].

ESWI leader Ted Barnes launched his party's campaign on the morning of 19 May, swiftly followed by Sara Hall-Brookes and Coutanche of the Greens in the afternoon[26]. Barnes committed his party to dropping the Euclo, abolishing private healthcare providers, introducing a wealth tax, withdrawing from the Tsabaran conflict, abolishing tuition fees, banning conversion therapy and tackling poor working conditions in the gig economy[26]. The party was criticised by Qadir Jabbar of TSWI for opposing involvement in the Tsabaran conflict, against a "functionalist and religious extremist state"[29].

The Green manifesto promised to fund a transition to green energy by raising the top rate of income tax, to introduce tax breaks for carbon netural companies, to legalise marijuana, to introduce an animal rights charter, to work for an EC-wide green new deal and to support self-identification for transgender and non-binary people. Hall-Brookes confirmed that she was their candidate for PM, with Coutanche being deputy PM candidate[26].

Zoe Halivar launched the SDCP's manifesto in Sheaford on 20 May, pledging to "change the country for the better"[30]. The SDCP manifesto claimed to emphasise equality, justice and competence, with a number of headline policies, including widespread infrastructure investment, a resolution to the pensions scandal which restored public pensions, a house building campaign to tackle the housing crisis, a committment 'cradle to grave' education and healthcare, prison reform, a reversal of local government cuts, and a number of social reforms including non-binary gender recogntion, increased accessibility and linguistic pluralism, including motions to make Aldman and Estmerish Sign Language national languages[26][31].

In their manifesto, launched 21 May, the Reform Party pledged to institute a plastic bag tax to tackle littering, to protect the squeezed middle with no income tax rises, to legalise marijuana, fully devolve the curriculum to the states, open grammar schools up to more student from low-income backgrounds, and ensure disabled people have access to job interviews[26].

The third EBS News debate on 21 May focused on social policy, and saw leaders from six major national parties answer public-submitted questions related to gender recognition, conversion therapy, disability rights, responding to prejudice, and tackling inequality. The debate became notable when the first question related to the LGBT-free zones in Etruria, with Wilton-Smyth's response seen negatively[4].

Voters' opinion of party leaders was identified as an increasingly important component of the campaign, seemingly in contrast with prior elections. Polling undertaken by Peer Sootland identified that Halivar was associated with more positive terms, such as "honest" and "competent", than Wilton-Smyth, who was more likely to be identified as "incompetent" or "smug"[5]. It has been suggested that a reasoning for this is Wilton-Smyth's handling of the pensions scandal, which narrowed his appeal as he was no longer seen as economically competent[32]. Notably, perceptions of the party leaders correlated with age, with younger voters more positive of Halivar and older voters more positive of Wilton-Smyth, suggesting that age might be playing an important part in predicting voting intention[5].

Television debates

A number of televeision debates were held. For all debates held on any channel or service run by the Estmerish Broadcasting Service, broadcasting regulations dictated that party leaders were invited only if they were standing across the country and already maintained seats in Parliament or had consistently, for at least three contintuous months, polled higher than the electoral threshold of 2.5% in opinion poll averages. This meant that the Party of the Swathish and the Aldman Democratic Alliance, despite holding seats in Parliament, were not eligible to take part.

2021 Estmerish general election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s) Subject  P  Present   S  Surrogate   NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee  INV Invited 
SDU SDCP Reform Estmere First Greens ESWI PS Ref.
27 April EBS News Emily Ford Leaders' debate P
Wilton-Smyth
P
Halivar
P
Bennett
P
Avery
P
Hall-Brookes
P
Barnes
NI [24]
30 April NITV Paul Shanelly "Big three" leaders' debate P
Wilton-Smyth
P
Halivar
P
Bennett
NI NI NI NI
3 May NITV Weald Richard Gunnarsson Debate in the Swathish language P
Wilton-Smyth
P
Halivar
P
Bennett
A S
Haroldson
P
Barnes
P
Stringer
7 May EBS News Emily Ford Foreign policy P
Wilton-Smyth
P
Halivar
P
Bennett
P
Avery
P
Hall-Brookes
P
Barnes
NI
11 May NITV d'Estme Julia Montfort Debate in the Flurian language P
Wilton-Smyth
P
Halivar
P
Bennett
P
Avery
P
Coutanche
P
Barnes
NI
13 May NITV Paul Shanelly Smaller party leaders' debate NI NI NI P
Avery
P
Hall-Brookes
P
Barnes
P
Stringer
17 May EBS/University of Morwall Emily Ford Young voters P
Wilton-Smyth
P
Halivar
P
Bennett
S
Thomson
P
Hall-Brookes
P
Barnes
NI
21 May EBS News Emily Ford Social policy P
Wilton-Smyth
P
Halivar
P
Bennett
P
Avery
P
Hall-Brookes
P
Barnes
NI [4]
25 May NITV Paul Shanelly Leaders' debate P
Wilton-Smyth
P
Halivar
P
Bennett
P
Avery
P
Hall-Brookes
P
Barnes
P
Stringer

Controversies

A number of controversies emerged during the election campaign.

On 28 April, the Morwall SDU was criticised for posting misleaing lefleats, branded with the Greater Morwall Council logo, to potential voters, warning them of a 19.7% tax hike by the Council, supported by Zoe Halivar. The leaflets were reported on 30 April by the SDCP for being "clearly fictious and fraudulent". The Electoral Processes Commission determined the leaflets to be fraudulent devices on 4 May, suspending the Morwall SDU's campaign and deducting 10% of their campaign chest in the form of a fine.

On 2 May, Alison Cooper, the SDCP candidate for Tootle and Harwich, was reported to the Electoral Processes Commission by the SDU for alleged treating, after she posted an image on Chirper of a box of cookies being given to a voter. On 5 May the EPC declared that the incident did not qualify for action, as the cookies had been given to SDCP members campaigning for the party, not independent voters.

Endorsements

A number of organisations, individuals and newspapers have made endorsements on behalf of parties and individual candidates in the election.

Notably, a significant number of heads of governments of Euclean Community members nations associated with the Pink Wave made unprecedented interventions in the election to support their preferred candidate for Prime Minister, Zoe Halivar, and her party. This has been described as part of a 'federalisation' of Euclean politics[7]. It has been suggested that part of the reason for this is that other ASE parties hope to capitalise on the momemtum of the SDCP in a 'pink renaissance' to win electoral contests in their own countries[6].

Newspapers and magazines

National newspapers

Newspaper Endorsement Notes
The Chartist Social Democratic and Co-operative Party
Daily Times Sotirian Democratic Union
Economic Review Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Advised readers "vote for the anti-SDU candidate most likely to win in your constituency". Supported Zoe Halivar to become PM.
The Express Sotirian Democratic Union
Red Sunday Social Democratic and Co-operative Party
The Standard None Called for readers to vote for "moderate SDU candidates" to "push Mr Wilton-Smyth" to resign.
Witterite News Social Democratic and Co-operative Party

National political magazines

Newspaper Endorsement Notes
May Day Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Left-wing political magazine
The Nation Sotirian Democratic Union Right-wing political magazine

Other national publications

Newspaper Endorsement Notes
Cultural Review Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Weekly culture and arts magazine
Mode Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Weekly fashion magazine
Reverb Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Bi-monthly rock music magazine
Teen Mode Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Weekly fashion magazine aimed at young people
Wow! Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Bi-monthly pop music magazine

Local newspapers

Newspaper Endorsement Notes
The Damesbridge Herald Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Weekly newspaper covering Damesbridgeshire
The Dunwich Echo Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Daily newspaper covering Dunwich and the wider Dunwich County
Flurland News Sotirian Democratic Union Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Flurland
The Morwall Chronicle Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Greater Morwall
St Richards Times Sotirian Democratic Union Daily newspaper covering the city of St Richards
The Swathish National Party of the Swathish Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Wealdland
Wealdland Post Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Wealdland

Foreign newspapers

Newspaper Endorsement Notes
The Continental None Advised readers to "vote for pro-Euclean candidates [and] parties".
The Hamptonshire Post Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Swathish-language Alslandic newspaper.
The Norland Post Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Estmerish-language Borish newspaper.
Today Party of the Swathish Swathish-language version of Alslandic newspaper Hjoed.
Westhaven Journal None Estmerish-language Borish newspaper.

Individuals

Aldman Democratic Alliance

Estmere First

Reform Party

Social Democratic and Co-operative Party

Sotirian Democratic Union

Organisations and other political parties

Aldman Democratic Alliance

Estmerish Section of the Workers' International

Trade unions
Other

Greens

Senior Citizens Countryside Alliance

Social Democratic and Co-operative Party

Trade unions
Other

Sotirian Democratic Union

Opinion polling

Opinion polls were conducted throughout the period following the last election, by a number of polling organisations, most of which are members of the Estmerish Opinion Polling Organisation. Below are two graphs showing opinion poll result average trendline for the general election. The first includes all parties which won list seat in the last election, while the second focuses on minor parties.

Graphical summary of the average of polls conducted for the general election for parties from the current Parliament.
Graphical summary of the average of polls conducted for the general election for minor parties.

Exit poll

An exit poll was conducted by YouPoll on behalf of the News Association, and was published at 10pm after voting had finished. It predicted that the Social Democratic and Co-operative Party was the largest party, with the Sotirian Democratic Union and Reform Party coalition losing their overall majority[44]. The results were close to the exit poll, though it slightly over-estimated the SDU and Reform seats, and underestimated the SDCP and new party (Vox, future.es, SCCA) seats[45][2].

Parties Seats Change
Social Democratic and Co-operative Party 250 Increase 63
Sotirian Democratic Union 205 Decrease 11
Reform Party 47 Decrease 54
Greens 36 Increase 7
Estmerish Section of the Workers' International 19 Increase 4
Party of the Swathish 13 Decrease 2
Senior Citizens Countryside Alliance 12 Increase 12
Vox Estmere 11 Increase 11
future.es 5 Increase 5
Aldman Democratic Alliance 2 Steady
Estmere First 0 Decrease 35
SDCP 51 short of a majority

Results

Constituency results came in through the night, with the first constituency to declare being Longwood East at 11:16pm, beating Rasifax and Ramsfield West who declared second and third respectively. Strool was gthe last constituency to declare, at 1pm the following day, following four recounts[44]. The full constituency results and preliminary party list results were announced on 28 May[45]. For constituencies, the SDCP were on 195, the SDU on 148, Reform on 37, the Greens on 8, ESWI on 1, PS on 9, the ADA on 2 and all others on 0. The preliminary party list results showed the SDCP between 54-63, the SDU between 44-59, Reform between 1-13, the Greens between 27-35, ESWI between 14-26, PS between 0-3, Vox between 4-13, SCCA between 7-19, future.es between 2-11 future.es, and all others on 0[45].

The full official results were announced on 29 May[2], showing the Social Democratic and Co-operative Party on 253 seats, outperforming the exit poll, with the Sotirian Democratic Union on 199 and the Reform Party on 44, both underperforming the exit poll. The SDCP was the largest party by a significant margin, and was widely reported to have won the election. It emerged as the largest party for the first time in a national election since the 1973 election, and Zoe Halivar announced her intention to form a minority government with an informal agreement of support from Reform, the Greens and ESWI. This was in spite of Reginald Wilton-Smyth also attempting to secure a majority in the Chamber for his incumbent government. Wilton-Smyth conceded defeat on 31 May, and Halivar was invited by President Alice Roberts to form a government[8].

253 40 21 44 199 43
Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Greens ESWI Reform Sotirian Democratic Union Others
2021 Estmere Parliament.svg
PartyConstituencyPartySeats+/–
Votes%Votes%
Social Democratic and Co-operative Party13,805,57244.7912,729,10141.30253Increase66
Sotirian Democratic Union10,529,09934.1610,032,05432.55199Decrease17
Reform Party2,780,2259.022,185,9057.0944Decrease57
Greens1,417,8534.602,116,4056.8740Increase11
Estmerish Section of the Workers' International610,2931.981,156,3763.7521Increase6
Senior Citizens Countryside Alliance332,8871.08793,9542.5814New
Party of the Swathish591,7991.92531,7671.7310Decrease5
Vox Estmere228,0890.74583,9171.8910New
future.es197,2660.64384,7061.257New
Aldman Democratic Alliance126,3740.41104,0100.342Steady0
Estmere First151,0320.49115,5870.380Decrease35
All other parties50,0080.1684,9250.28
Total30,820,497100.0030,818,707100.00600600
Valid votes30,820,49799.9930,818,70799.99
Invalid/blank votes2,3910.014,1830.01
Total votes30,822,888100.0030,822,890100.00
Registered voters/turnout42,308,45572.8542,308,45572.85
Source: EBS News Online

References

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