2021 Estmerish general election

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2021 Estmerish general election

← 2018 27 May 2021

All 600 seats in the Chamber of Commons
301 seats needed for a majority
  Official portrait of Mr David Davis crop 2.jpg Official portrait of Lisa Nandy crop 2.jpg Kirsty Williams AM (28092338171) (cropped).jpg
Leader Reginald Wilton-Smyth Zoe Halivar Esther Bennett
Party SDU SDCP Reform
Leader since 23 April 2018 22 May 2016 11 October 2014
Leader's seat Newchurch and Harrendole Harbrough Hillside Tolbury Outer
Last election 216 187 101
Current seats 215 184 99
Seats needed Increase86 Increase117 Increase202

  Daniel Hannan by Gage Skidmore.jpg Molly Scott Cato, 2016 (cropped).jpg Official portrait of Rt Hon Sir George Howarth MP crop 2.jpg
Leader George Avery Sara Hall-Brookes
(Lead Candidate)
Aelfwin Stringer
Party Estmere First Greens Party of the Swathish
Leader since 11 August 2018 7 April 2015 15 August 2009
Leader's seat Bouley North East Tendersea Holdenshire Wilds
Last election 35 29 15
Current seats 29 29 15
Seats needed Increase272 Increase272 Increase286

Incumbent Prime Minister

Reginald Wilton-Smyth
SDU



The 2021 Estmerish general election will be held on 27 May 2021. It is a snap election, called by Prime Minister Reginald Wilton-Smyth. All 600 Members of Parliament in the Chamber of Commons will be elected.

Following 2018, the next election was not scheduled until 2022. Reginald Wilton-Smyth made the call for a snap election on 14 April 2021, and Parliament voted in favour on 15 April. Campaigning unofficially began with the start of purdah on 18 April, but the campaign officially began with the dissolution of Parliament on 25 April. The ruling Sotirian Democratic Union led by Wilton-Smyth, their coalition partners the Reform Party led by Esther Bennett and the Social Democratic and Co-operative Party under Zoe Halivar are considered the main parties running in the election.

Minor national parties running in the election include Estmere First led by George Avery, the Greens led by Sara Hall-Brookes and Nathan Coutanche, and ESWI led by Ted Barnes, while relevant regionalist parties include the Party of the Swathish led by Aelfwin Stringer and the Aldman Democratic Alliance led by Annika Schröder. A number of new parties are also contesting the election, such as Vox Estmere, future.es and the Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party.

Polling day is 27 May, and full results are likely to be announced 28 May after list votes have been taken into account.

Background

The previous 2018 election saw the governing Sotirian Democratic Union gain seats, with newly-elected leader Reginald Wilton-Smyth seen to have breathed new life into the party. The party continued their coalition deal with the Reform Party under Esther Bennett, but the opposition Social Democratic and Co-operative Party under Zoe Halivar also advanced in the election, emerging stronger than before.

Gambled pensions scandal

News of the gambled pensions scandal broke on 8 February 2021, when Penny Dorchester of the Economic Review published an article which relayed information from an anynomous whistleblower from the Treasury, revealing that government records showed discrepencies between annual pensions contributions and the overall ringfenced pension pot, suggesting that a quarter of the fund was missing[1]. Both the Review[2] and Leader of the Opposition Zoe Halivar[3] asked the Prime Minister where the money was, with Halivar raising the issue in Prime Minister's Questions, and the SDCP leader called for a transparent public investigation[4]. The Prime Minister initially dismissed the claims as "baseless yellow journalism".

On 24 February 2021 The Chartist reported that another whistleblower had contacted them, revealing that the pensions had been "gambled" in a risky stock market investment against the advice of the Treasury. The money had been invested with Frobisher-Green Management, which defaulted on its debts earlier in the month. At least €3.5 billion had been lost in the investment[5]. Polls showed that the public did not believe that the claims were "baseless", as the PM had suggested. On 25 February, in response to the allegations, the government released a statement on the scandal, which was seen as underwhelming, urging the public not to panic and to trust in the process[6][7]. Halivar once again called for an investigation and asserted that public trust was diminishing[8].

Mortimer's leadership challenge

On 9 March, Jon Mortimer resigned as Secretary of State for Health and Social Affairs in opposition to Wilton-Smyth's handling of the pensions scandal[9]. Supported by a number of SDU grandees[10], Mortimer lodged a formal leadership challenge with the SDU organising committee on 14 March[11], which led to a closed leadership election beginning on 16 March between Mortimer and Wilton-Smyth. Wilton-Smyth narrowly won the contest on 29 March, but a majority of SDU federal MPs voted for Mortimer, which was seen as Wilton-Smyth having lost their confidence[12].

Though Wilton-Smyth won the contest, it was seen to have damaged his government. He was seen to have lost the support of his backbenchers, and his coalition partners were reportedly seeking out a new coalition deal with the opposition under Halivar[13]. Cabinet unity had also been damaged during the contest[14]. The government therefore announced late in the evening on 13 April that they would be making an announcement the day after[15], and it was then that Wilton-Smyth called for a snap general election on 14 April, reportedly aiming to catch the opposition off-guard. Parliament voted in favour of a snap election on 15 April.

Electoral system

Elections to the Chamber of Commons use the Additional Member System, or AMS for short. AMS is a mixed system that is semi-proportional. Voters have two votes. One vote for a local constituency, and one vote for their preferred party in a nation-wide party list. List seats are allocated through the Boeri method, with the winners of the constituency seats taken into account.

To be eligible for list seats, parties must pass an electoral threshold of 2.5% of the vote.

There are 600 total elected members of the Chamber. Of these, 400 members are elected through first-past-the-post constituency seats, with the remaining 200 members elected through party list.

301 seats are required for a majority. The party that recieves the most votes usually forms the government, but due to the proportional nature of the system it is unlikely for a single party to recieve a majority on its own. As such, coalition governments and minority government are common, and it is possible for the largest party to be excluded from government.

The 2021 election will use the constituency boundaries first drawn for the 2012 general election. This will be the fourth general election to use these constituency boundaries. The constituencies are overdue for a boundary review, with new boundaries legally-required before 2022, and so it is likely this will be the last general election to use these constituency boundaries.

Voting eligibility

In order to vote in the election, voters had to meet the criteria to be considered eligible, and register to vote before midnight 13 May, two weeks prior to polling day. Eligible voters had to be;

  • aged 18 or older on polling day
  • an Estmerish or Euclean Community citizen
  • permanently resident in Estmere, or owning property in Estmere
  • not excluded due to legal reasons, such as;

Voters could be registered to multiple constituencies through multiple residences, but can only vote in one constituency. Overseas voters vote as if living at their last Estmerish address.

Timetable

Key dates in the election are listed below:

14 April 2021 Prime Minister Reginald Wilton-Smyth announced his intention to hold a snap election[16]
15 April 2021 Bill to dissolve Parliament for an early election passes the Chamber of Commons
18 April 2021 Purdah begins[16]
25 April 2021 Parliament is officially dissolved for the election by President Alice Roberts[17]
25 April 2021 Campaigning officialy begins[17]
27 April 2021 First televised debate[18]
29 April 2021 Deadline for party list nominations
30 April 2021 Deadline for constituency candidate nominations
12 May 2021 Last day to register to vote
27 May 2021 Polling day
28 May 2021 Preliminary election results announced[16]
1 June 2021 Official election results announced
3 June 2021 First meeting of the next Parliament

Parties

At the end of the 2018 parliament, eight political parties had representation in the Chamber of Commons. The three largest parties in Estmere are the Sotirian Democratic Union, the Social Democratic and Co-operative Party and the Reform Party, together comprising just under 85% of the seats in the Chamber, and it is widely expected that these parties will come out on top after the election.

Other relevant national parties include Estmere First, the Greens and the Estmerish Section of the Workers' International, all of which currently have Parliamentary representation. A number of smaller, newer parties are also contesting a national election for the first time, including Vox Estmere, future.es and the Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party. Two regionalist parties, the Party of the Swathish and the Aldman Democratic Alliance, are contesting a select number of constituency seats based on the distribution of Swathish and Aldman speakers respectively.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2018 general election result Seats at dissolution
Votes (%) Seats
Constituency Party list
Sotirian Democratic Union Conservatism
Sotirian democracy
Reginald Wilton-Smyth 36.8 35.6
216 / 600
215 / 600
Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Social democracy
Democratic socialism
Zoe Halivar 33.7 30.9
187 / 600
184 / 600
Reform Party Liberalism
Social liberalism
Esther Bennett 15.8 16.7
101 / 600
99 / 600
Estmere First Right-wing populism
Estmerish nationalism
George Avery 4.3 5.8
35 / 600
29 / 600
Greens Green politics
Progressivism
Sara Hall-Brookes
Nathan Coutanche
3.9 4.9
29 / 600
29 / 600
Party of the Swathish Swathish nationalism
Social democracy
Aelfwin Stringer 2.5 2.6
15 / 600
15 / 600
Estmerish Section of the Workers' International Council socialism
Anti-capitalism
Ted Barnes 2.0 2.5
15 / 600
14 / 600
Aldman Democratic Alliance Aldman regionalism
Social liberalism
Annika Schröder 0.4 0.4
2 / 600
2 / 600
Vox Estmere Euclofederalism
Social liberalism
Marcello Schipani
Kat Rodham
Did not exist
0 / 600
future.es Future politics
E-democracy
Nate Foreman Did not exist
0 / 600
Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party Agrarianism
Pensioners' interests
Dorris Tippery Did not exist
0 / 600

Campaign

An SDCP rally in Bouley in April. Rallies are common in Estmerish election campaigns.

The campaign officially began on 25 April[17], but some 'light' campaigning had started as soon as purdah began on 18 April[16].

Reform and Estmere First both launched their campaigns on 26 April, in Colton and St Richards respectively. The Reform Party focused the launch of their campaign on their "moderating influence" on the SDU-led coalition, and pointed to a number of government successes in departments headed by their ministers. Estmere First started their campaign with a pledge to reduce net immigration to 0%[19].

The first television debate between party leaders was held on 27 April, hosted by EBS News, and subject to EBS broadcasting regulations. Aelfwin Stringer of the Party of the Swathish criticised the regulations as "unfair" to regionalist parties. The debate was described as "messy", and polls showed that no party leader was considered to have won the debate by a majority of voters. Halivar was rated marginally ahead of the other candidates[18].

Most major parties launched their official campaigns in the last week of April. The SDCP officially launched their campaign on 29 April, promising to resolve the pensions scandal and tackle the housing crisis, in order to bring "real change" to Estmere[19]. The SDU, Greens and ESWI all launched their campaigns officially on 30 April. The SDU promised to continue the economic recovery and to mtaintain Estmere's presence abroad in support of liberal democracy. The Greens promised to tackle climate change, and ESWI promised to end austerity[19].

On 18 May, Reginald Wilton-Smyth released the SDU manifesto entitled Sensibility and Spine in Colton, revealing the party's platform[20]. Headline policy committments included a freeze on VAT, a comprehensive reform of inheritance tax, the capping of yearly net immigration at 75,000, a promise to 'foster national pride' in the Estmerish curriculum, and an opposition the 'federalisation' of the Euclean Community[21]. The manifesto also pledged to cap benefit payments, lift the tax bracket for poorer earners, a guarantee to protect Estmerish manufacturers, reform to immigration law that would allow for the deportation of immigrants who commit crimes, and opposition to Tsabaran refugee quotas. The party also promised to repay lost pensions in light of the gambled pensions scandal[22].

Zoe Halivar launched the SDCP's manifesto in Sheaford on 20 May, pledging to "change the country for the better"[23]. The SDCP manifesto claimed to emphasise equality, justice and competence, with a number of headline policies, including widespread infrastructure investment, a resolution to the pensions scandal which restored public pensions, a house building campaign to tackle the housing crisis, a committment 'cradle to grave' education and healthcare, prison reform, a reversal of local government cuts, and a number of social reforms including non-binary gender recogntion, increased accessibility and linguistic pluralism, including motions to make Aldman and Estmerish Sign Language national languages[22][24].

In their manifesto, launched 21 May, the Reform Party pledged to institute a plastic bag tax to tackle littering, to protect the squeezed middle with no income tax rises, to legalise marijuana, fully devolve the curriculum to the states, open grammar schools up to more student from low-income backgrounds, and ensure disabled people have access to job interviews[22].

Television debates

A number of televeision debates were held. For all debates held on any channel or service run by the Estmerish Broadcasting Service, broadcasting regulations dictated that party leaders were invited only if they were standing across the country and already maintained seats in Parliament or had consistently, for at least three contintuous months, polled higher than the electoral threshold of 2.5% in opinion poll averages. This meant that the Party of the Swathish and the Aldman Democratic Alliance, despite holding seats in Parliament, were not eligible to take part.

2021 Estmerish general election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s) Subject  P  Present   S  Surrogate   NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee  INV Invited 
SDU SDCP Reform Estmere First Greens ESWI PS Ref.
27 April EBS News Emily Ford Leaders' debate P
Wilton-Smyth
P
Halivar
P
Bennett
P
Avery
P
Hall-Brookes
P
Barnes
NI [18]
30 April NITV Paul Shanelly "Big three" leaders' debate P
Wilton-Smyth
P
Halivar
P
Bennett
NI NI NI NI
3 May NITV Weald Richard Gunnarsson Debate in the Swathish language P
Wilton-Smyth
P
Halivar
P
Bennett
A S
Haroldson
P
Barnes
P
Stringer
11 May EBS News Emily Ford Foreign policy P
Wilton-Smyth
P
Halivar
P
Bennett
P
Avery
P
Hall-Brookes
P
Barnes
NI
13 May NITV d'Estme Julia Montfort Debate in the Flurian language P
Wilton-Smyth
P
Halivar
P
Bennett
P
Avery
P
Coutanche
P
Barnes
NI
17 May NITV Paul Shanelly Smaller party leaders' debate NI NI NI P
Avery
P
Hall-Brookes
P
Barnes
P
Stringer
21 May EBS News Emily Ford Social policy P
Wilton-Smyth
P
Halivar
P
Bennett
P
Avery
P
Hall-Brookes
P
Barnes
NI [25]

Controversies

A number of controversies emerged during the election campaign. On 28 April, the Morwall SDU was criticised for posting misleaing lefleats, branded with the Greater Morwall Council logo, to potential voters, warning them of a 19.7% tax hike by the Council, supported by Zoe Halivar. The leaflets were reported on 30 April by the SDCP for being "clearly fictious and fraudulent". The Electoral Processes Commission determined the leaflets to be fraudulent devices on 4 May, suspending the Morwall SDU's campaign and deducting 10% of their campaign chest in the form of a fine.

On 2 May, Alison Cooper, the SDCP candidate for Tootle and Harwich, was reported to the Electoral Processes Commission by the SDU for alleged treating, after she posted an image on Chirper of a box of cookies being given to a voter. On 5 May the EPC declared that the incident did not qualify for action, as the cookies had been given to SDCP members campaigning for the party, as opposed to swing voters. The SDCP press team described the incident as "a farce".

Endorsements

A number of organisations, individuals and newspapers have made endorsements on behalf of parties and individual candidates in the election.

Notably, a significant number of heads of governments of Euclean Community members nations associated with the Pink Wave made unprecedented interventions in the election to support their preferred candidate for Prime Minister, Zoe Halivar, and her party. This has been described as part of a 'federalisation' of Euclean politics[26]. It has been suggested that part of the reason for this is that other ASE parties hope to capitalise on the momemtum of the SDCP in a 'pink renaissance' to win electoral contests in their own countries[27].

Newspapers and magazines

National newspapers

Newspaper Endorsement Notes
The Chartist Social Democratic and Co-operative Party
Daily Times Sotirian Democratic Union
Economic Review Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Advised readers "vote for the anti-SDU candidate most likely to win in your constituency". Supported Zoe Halivar to become PM.
The Express Sotirian Democratic Union
Red Sunday Social Democratic and Co-operative Party
The Standard None Called for readers to vote for "moderate SDU candidates" to "push Mr Wilton-Smyth" to resign.
Witterite News Social Democratic and Co-operative Party

National political magazines

Newspaper Endorsement Notes
May Day Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Left-wing political magazine
The Nation Sotirian Democratic Union Right-wing political magazine

Other national publications

Newspaper Endorsement Notes
Cultural Review Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Weekly culture and arts magazine
Mode Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Weekly fashion magazine
Reverb Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Bi-monthly rock music magazine
Teen Mode Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Weekly fashion magazine aimed at young people
Wow! Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Bi-monthly pop music magazine

Local newspapers

Newspaper Endorsement Notes
The Damesbridge Herald Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Weekly newspaper covering Damesbridgeshire
The Dunwich Echo Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Daily newspaper covering Dunwich and the wider Dunwich County
Flurland News Sotirian Democratic Union Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Flurland
The Morwall Chronicle Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Greater Morwall
St Richards Times Sotirian Democratic Union Daily newspaper covering the city of St Richards
The Swathish National Party of the Swathish Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Wealdland
Wealdland Post Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Wealdland

Foreign newspapers

Newspaper Endorsement Notes
The Continental None Advised readers to "vote for pro-Euclean candidates [and] parties".
The Hamptonshire Post Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Estmerish-language Alslandic newspaper.
The Norland Post Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Estmerish-language Borish newspaper.
Today Sotirian Democratic Union Estmerish-language version of Alslandic newspaper Hjoed.
Westhaven Journal None Estmerish-language Borish newspaper.

Individuals

Aldman Democratic Alliance

Estmere First

Reform Party

Social Democratic and Co-operative Party

Sotirian Democratic Union

Organisations and other political parties

Aldman Democratic Alliance

Estmerish Section of the Workers' International

Trade unions
Other

Greens

Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party

Social Democratic and Co-operative Party

Trade unions
Other

Sotirian Democratic Union

Opinion polling

Opinion polls were conducted throughout the period following the last election, by a number of polling organisations, most of which are members of the Estmerish Opinion Polling Organisation. Below are two graphs showing opinion poll result average trendline for the general election. The first includes all parties which won list seat in the last election, while the second focuses on minor parties.

Graphical summary of the average of polls conducted for the general election for parties from the current Parliament.
Graphical summary of the average of polls conducted for the general election for minor parties.

References

  1. "Private pensions, public problems; the numbers just don't add up". Economic Review. 8 February 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
  2. "@Economic_Review". Chirper. 8 February 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
  3. "@halivarzoe". Chirper. 8 February 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
  4. "@halivarzoe". Tweeter. 11 February 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
  5. "Whistleblower speaks up; "they gambled it all"". The Chartist. 24 February 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
  6. "Prime Minister releases statement on pensions scandal". The Standard. 25 February 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
  7. "@MoorwoodHouse". Chirper. 25 February 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
  8. "@halivarzoe". Chirper. 25 February 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
  9. "Minister resigns; "I cannot support this govt"". The Chartist. 9 March 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
  10. "Govt in chaos as beckbenchers challenge RWS". The Chartist. 15 March 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
  11. "@Politics4Every1". Chirper. 14 March 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
  12. "RWS narrowly wins leadership challenge". The Chartist. 30 March 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
  13. "Senior Reform MPs "exploring options" with Halivar". The Standard. 11 March 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
  14. "Cabinet unity "in tatters" after first leadership hustings". The Standard. 19 March 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
  15. "@MoorwoodHouse". Chirper. 13 April 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
  16. 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 "Reginald Wilton-Smyth calls snap election in order to "provide clarity to the nation"". EBS News. 14 April 2021. Retrieved 30 April 2021.
  17. 17.0 17.1 17.2 "Parliament dissolved, campaigning starts in earnest". EBS News. 25 April 2021. Retrieved 30 April 2021.
  18. 18.0 18.1 18.2 "First debate held on EBS; polls show "no clear winner" in a "messy debate"". EBS News. 28 April 2021. Retrieved 28 April 2021.
  19. 19.0 19.1 19.2 "Election 2021: Hope and loathing in Morwall". The Chartist. 4 May 2021. Retrieved 4 May 2021.
  20. "@PrimeMinisterEs". Chirper. 18 May 2021. Retrieved 20 May 2021.
  21. "@SDU". Chirper. 18 May 2021. Retrieved 20 May 2021.
  22. 22.0 22.1 22.2 "Election 2021 - A guide to the parties and their promises; party manifestos at a glance". EBS News. 21 May 2021. Retrieved 22 May 2021.
  23. "@halivarzoe". Chirper. 20 May 2021. Retrieved 20 May 2021.
  24. "@SDCP". Chirper. 20 May 2021. Retrieved 20 May 2021.
  25. "RWS criticised for 'LGBT free zone' comments". The Chartist. 22 May 2021. Retrieved 22 May 2021.
  26. 26.00 26.01 26.02 26.03 26.04 26.05 26.06 26.07 26.08 26.09 26.10 26.11 26.12 "The Federalisation of Euclean Politics". The Continental. 28 April 2021. Retrieved 28 April 2021.
  27. 27.0 27.1 27.2 "All eyes on Estmere as domestic elections loom". Courant. 3 May 2021. Retrieved 4 May 2021.
  28. "@AZThingspeaker". Chirper. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.
  29. "@AndrewBohn". Chirper. 29 April 2021. Retrieved 29 April 2021.
  30. "@PresidentofGaullica". Chirper. 25 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.
  31. "@EsmeraldaF". Chirper. 28 April 2021. Retrieved 29 April 2021.
  32. "@sms". Chirper. 25 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.
  33. "The road ahead and an open door". Drazovice Diplomatique. 30 April 2021. Retrieved 30 April 2021.
  34. "@rvanbleiswijk". Chirper. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 30 April 2021.
  35. "@CerqueiraIsilda". Chirper. 28 April 2021. Retrieved 29 April 2021.
  36. "@VittoriaVasari". Chirper. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.
  37. "@SDEtruria". Chirper. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.