2033 Saren general election

2033 Saren general election

October 8, 2033 (2033-10-08)
All 952 seats in the House of Commons 473 seats are needed for a majority 32 (of the 62) elected seats in the Senate
Turnout	93.27%
First party Second party   Leader Camilla Parker Michael T. Walker Party Social Democratic Movement National Progressive Party Leader since 17 April, 2026 8 July, 2033 Leader's seat Segrià (WS) Elpenor (HA) Seats won 541 400 Seat change 140 108 Popular vote 354,926,662 290,265,931 Percentage 42.65% 34.88% Swing 10.28% 6.85% TPP 54.58% 45.42% TPP Swing 3.60 3.60   Third party Fourth party   Leader Deidre Schmidt Eustace Graham Party National Unity Party Greens Leader since 1 April 2030 29 June, 2025 Leader's seat Walco (ES) (lost seat) Fowler (ME) Seats won 6 2 Seat change 248 0 Popular vote 94,952,244 75,645,565 Percentage 11.41% 9.09% Swing 14.11% 2.79%
Social Democratic: 519 seats   National Progressive: 422 seats   National Union: 6 seats   Independent: 3 seats   Green: 2 seats
Prime Minister before election Camilla Parker Social Democrat Elected Prime Minister Camilla Parker Social Democrat

The 2033 Saren general election was held on Saturday 8 October 2033 to elect members of the 162nd Parliament of Sarenium. The election had been called following the dissolution of the 161st Parliament as elected at the 2030 double dissolution federal election. All 972 seats in the House of Commons (lower house) and 32 of 62 seats in the Senate (upper house) were up for election.

The first-term incumbent minority Social Democratic Government, led by Prime Minister Camilla Parker, won a second three-year term by defeating the opposition National Progressive Party, led by Opposition Leader Michael T. Walker. The SDM claimed a sixty-eight seat majority with 541 seats, the NPP finished with 400, whilst the remaining seats were won by the Greens, National Unity Party and Independents.

The electoral system of Sarenium enforces compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in single-member seats for the House of Commons and the Senate. The election was administered by the Saren Electoral Commission.

The result was considered an upset as polling had not accounted for the extent to which the SDM and NPP would increase their standing, nor had polls been able to predict the extent to which the National Unity Party would be routed.

On election night, Michael Walker conceded and stood down as Leader of the National Progressive Party.

Notable defeats included National Unity members, Deidre Schmidt in Walco and Thomas Grimes in Greenwood, both of whom were defeated with double digit swings against them. Notable entrants of Parliament included, son of Former President Alain Bronson, Jason Bronson (NPP), elected to Rochester, and niece of Christian Ross, Halima Lurtan (SDM), elected to Falcon's Neck.

Background

At the previous General Election, the Social Democratic Movement was elected to a minority government with the NUP providing confidence and supply. Sweeping the 'Super Saturday' by-elections to 56 vacated NUP seats by winning all fifty-six in November of 2031 and subsequent by-elections, criminal disqualifications and party defections led to the Social Democrats being two seats short of a majority. The National Progressives changed leaders in July 2033 after poor polling led to a backbench coup of leadership.

Major issues discussed over the course of the election were the Climate Refugee Crisis, Crime Epidemic in Madagascar and the Trade Balance.

Results

House of Commons (IRV) — Turnout 93.27% (CV)

Party			Votes	%	Swing	Seats	Change
	Social Democratic Movement		354,926,662	54.58	+3.60	541	+140
	National Progressive Party		290,265,931	45.42	–3.60	400	+108

Seat gains shown are gains made by the parties compared to it's last election standing, and do not include gains made throughout the term of Parliament.

Analysis

The result was considered a complete rout of the National Union Party which had provided confidence and supply to the Social Democratic minority government. The SDM's election to a third term was expected, but it was not expected to be a majority government. Polls had failed to accurately predict the locations of NUP support collapsing, in some seats swings of over twenty points were recorded from the NUP to either the SDM or NPP.

The 140 seat gain remains one of the largest in Saren history for an incumbent government, but remains on the lower end of recent seat exchanges.

The election has also been seen as a 'major transition' point in Saren political dynamics. The National Progressives were returned in rural and farm based seats, many of which had not elected it, or it's predecessor (the Conservative Party), since the early 20th or late 19th century. The election also marked the creation of a new coalition noted as the 'Parker Push', a coalition between the suburban middle class, urban and rural working class and the inner-city left-wing vote unified behind the re-election of Alexis Parker. Simultaneously, the NPP reformed an older coalition held by the Conservative Party at one point consisting of social conservatives, urban professionals and business-friendly voters. This was especially apparent in Rochester, where the NPP increased it's margin by double digits to hold 61.5% of the two-party preferred vote from 50.9% in 2030, broadly similar swings were notable in other seats of shared characteristics as the NPP solidified it's support among coastal, affluent communities.

Opinion Polling

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