2033 Saren general election: Difference between revisions

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<!-- Winner -->
<!-- Winner -->
| image1 = [[File:Michelle Obama 2013 official portrait (2).jpg|113px]]
| image1 = [[File:Michelle Obama 2013 official portrait (2).jpg|113px]]
| leader1 = Camilla Parker
| leader1 = [[Camilla Parker]]
| party1  = Social Democratic Movement
| party1  = Social Democratic Movement
| leader_since1 = 17 April, 2026
| leader_since1 = 14 September 2026
| leaders_seat1 = Segrià (WS)
| leaders_seat1 = [[Division of Segrià|Segrià]] (ES)
| popular_vote1 =  '''354,926,662'''  
| popular_vote1 =  '''354,926,662'''  
| percentage1    = '''42.65%'''
| percentage1    = '''42.65%'''
Line 32: Line 32:


<!-- 2nd -->
<!-- 2nd -->
| image2 = [[File:Patrick Leahy official photo (cropped).jpg|110px]]
| image2 = [[File:Scott Morrison 2014 (cropped 2).jpg|110px]]
| leader2 = Michael T. Walker
| leader2 = Michael T. Walker
| party2  = National Progressive Party
| party2  = Progressive Conservative Party
| leader_since2 = 8 September, 2029
| leader_since2 = 8 July, 2033
| leaders_seat2 = Elpenor (HA)
| leaders_seat2 = Elpenor (HA)
| popular_vote2 =  290,265,931  
| popular_vote2 =  290,265,931  
Line 85: Line 85:
| after_party      = Social Democrat
| after_party      = Social Democrat
}}
}}
The 2033 Saren general election was held on Saturday 8 October 2033 to elect members of the 162nd Parliament of Sarenium. The election had been called following the dissolution of the 161st Parliament as elected at the 2030 double dissolution federal election. All 972 seats in the House of Commons (lower house) and 32 of 62 seats in the Senate (upper house) were up for election.
The 2033 Saren general election was held on Saturday 8 October 2033 to elect members of the 162nd Parliament of Sarenium. The election had been called following the dissolution of the 161st Parliament as elected at the 2030 double dissolution federal election. All 952 seats in the House of Commons (lower house) and 42 of 84 seats in the Senate (upper house) were up for election.


The first-term incumbent minority Social Democratic Government, led by Prime Minister Camilla Parker, won a second three-year term by defeating the opposition National Progressive Party, led by Opposition Leader Michael T. Walker. The SDM claimed a sixty-eight seat majority with 541 seats, the NPP finished with 400, whilst the remaining seats were won by the Greens, National Unity Party and Independents.
The first-term incumbent minority Social Democratic Government, led by Prime Minister Camilla Parker, won a second three-year term by defeating the opposition Progressive Conservative Party, led by Opposition Leader Michael T. Walker. The SDM claimed a sixty-eight seat majority with 541 seats, the NPP finished with 400, whilst the remaining seats were won by the Greens, National Unity Party and Independents.


The electoral system of Sarenium enforces compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in single-member seats for the House of Representatives and the Senate. The election was administered by the Saren Electoral Commission.
The electoral system of Sarenium enforces compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in single-member seats for the House of Commons and the Senate. The election was administered by the Saren Electoral Commission.


The result was considered an upset as polling had not accounted for the extent to which the SDM and NPP would increase their standing, nor had polls been able to predict the extent to which the National Unity Party would be routed.  
The result was considered an upset as polling had not accounted for the extent to which the SDM and NPP would increase their standing, nor had polls been able to predict the extent to which the National Unity Party would be routed.  
Line 95: Line 95:
On election night, Michael Walker conceded and stood down as Leader of the National Progressive Party.
On election night, Michael Walker conceded and stood down as Leader of the National Progressive Party.


Notable defeats included National Unity members, Deidre Schmidt in Walco and Thomas Grimes in Greenwood, both of whom were defeated with double digit swings against them. Notable entrants of Parliament included, son of Former President Alain Bronson, Jason Bronson (NPP), elected to Rochester, and niece of Christian Ross, Halima Lurtan (SDM).
Notable defeats included National Unity members, Deidre Schmidt in Walco and Thomas Grimes in Greenwood, both of whom were defeated with double digit swings against them. Notable entrants of Parliament included, son of Former President Alain Bronson, Jason Bronson (PCP), elected to Rochester, and niece of Christian Ross, Halima Lurtan (SDM), elected to Falcon's Neck.


==Background==
==Background==
At the previous General Election, the Social Democratic Movement was elected to a minority government with the NUP providing confidence and supply. Sweeping the 'Super Saturday' by-elections to 56 vacated NUP seats by winning all fifty-six in November of 2031 and subsequent by-elections, criminal disqualifications and party defections led to the Social Democrats being two seats short of a majority. The Progressive Conservatives changed leaders in July 2033 after poor polling led to a backbench coup of leadership.
Major issues discussed over the course of the election were the Climate Refugee Crisis, Crime Epidemic in Madagascar and the Trade Balance.
==Procedure and Timeline==
==Procedure and Timeline==
==Results==
==Results==
{| class="wikitable"
|+ House of Commons (IRV) — Turnout 93.27% (CV)
! style="width:200px" colspan=3 | Party
! style="width:70px;"| Votes
! style="width:40px;"| %
! style="width:40px;"| Swing
! style="width:40px;"| Seats
! style="width:40px;"| Change
|- 
| style="background-color:#FF1900" | &nbsp;
| colspan=2 | Social Democratic Movement
| style="text-align:right;" |  354,926,662
| style="text-align:right;" | '''54.58'''
| style="text-align:right;" | +3.60
| style="text-align:right;" | '''541'''
| style="text-align:right;" | +140
|-
| style="background-color:#00D5FF" | &nbsp;
| colspan=2 | Progressive Conservative Party
| style="text-align:right;" |  290,265,931
| style="text-align:right;" | 45.42
| style="text-align:right;" | –3.60
| style="text-align:right;" | 400
| style="text-align:right;" | +108
|}
Seat gains shown are gains made by the parties compared to it's last election standing, and do not include gains made throughout the term of Parliament.
==Analysis==
==Analysis==
The result was considered a complete rout of the National Union Party which had provided confidence and supply to the Social Democratic minority government. The SDM's election to a third term was expected, but it was not expected to be a majority government. Polls had failed to accurately predict the locations of NUP support collapsing, in some seats swings of over twenty points were recorded from the NUP to either the SDM or NPP.
The 140 seat gain remains one of the largest in Saren history for an incumbent government, but remains on the lower end of recent seat exchanges.
The election has also been seen as a 'major transition' point in Saren political dynamics. The Progressive Conservatives were returned in rural and farm based seats, many of which had not elected it, or it's predecessor (the Conservative Party), since the early 20th or late 19th century. The election also marked the creation of a new coalition noted as the 'Camilla Coalition', a coalition between the suburban middle class, urban and rural working class and the inner-city left-wing vote unified behind the re-election of Camilla Parker. Simultaneously, the PCP reformed an older coalition held by the Conservative Party at one point consisting of social conservatives, urban professionals and business-friendly voters. This was especially apparent in Rochester, where the PCP increased it's margin by double digits to hold 61.5% of the two-party preferred vote from 50.9% in 2030, broadly similar swings were notable in other seats of shared characteristics as the PCP solidified it's support among coastal, affluent communities.
==Opinion Polling==
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49, 50, 48, 49, 49, 50,
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51, 54, 51, 50, 48, 43,
45, 47, 46, 48, 44, 46,
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51, 50, 52, 51, 51, 50,
49, 48, 48, 49, 49, 46,
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Latest revision as of 13:42, 5 June 2021

2033 Saren general election
← 2030 October 8, 2033 (2033-10-08) Next →
All 952 seats in the House of Commons
473 seats are needed for a majority
32 (of the 62) elected seats in the Senate
Turnout93.27%
  First party Second party
  Michelle Obama 2013 official portrait (2).jpg Scott Morrison 2014 (cropped 2).jpg
Leader Camilla Parker Michael T. Walker
Party Social Democratic Movement Progressive Conservative Party
Leader since 14 September 2026 8 July, 2033
Leader's seat Segrià (ES) Elpenor (HA)
Seats won 541 400
Seat change Increase 140 Increase 108
Popular vote 354,926,662 290,265,931
Percentage 42.65% 34.88%
Swing Increase 10.28% Increase 6.85%
TPP 54.58% 45.42%
TPP Swing Increase 3.60 Decrease 3.60
  Third party Fourth party
 
Leader Deidre Schmidt Eustace Graham
Party National Unity Party Greens
Leader since 1 April 2030 29 June, 2025
Leader's seat Walco (ES)
(lost seat) 		Fowler (ME)
Seats won 6 2
Seat change Decrease 248 Steady 0
Popular vote 94,952,244 75,645,565
Percentage 11.41% 9.09%
Swing Decrease 14.11% Decrease 2.79%
2033 Saren general election.svg
  Social Democratic: 519 seats
  National Progressive: 422 seats
  National Union: 6 seats
  Independent: 3 seats
  Green: 2 seats
Prime Minister before election

Camilla Parker
Social Democrat

Elected Prime Minister

Camilla Parker
Social Democrat

The 2033 Saren general election was held on Saturday 8 October 2033 to elect members of the 162nd Parliament of Sarenium. The election had been called following the dissolution of the 161st Parliament as elected at the 2030 double dissolution federal election. All 952 seats in the House of Commons (lower house) and 42 of 84 seats in the Senate (upper house) were up for election.

The first-term incumbent minority Social Democratic Government, led by Prime Minister Camilla Parker, won a second three-year term by defeating the opposition Progressive Conservative Party, led by Opposition Leader Michael T. Walker. The SDM claimed a sixty-eight seat majority with 541 seats, the NPP finished with 400, whilst the remaining seats were won by the Greens, National Unity Party and Independents.

The electoral system of Sarenium enforces compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in single-member seats for the House of Commons and the Senate. The election was administered by the Saren Electoral Commission.

The result was considered an upset as polling had not accounted for the extent to which the SDM and NPP would increase their standing, nor had polls been able to predict the extent to which the National Unity Party would be routed.

On election night, Michael Walker conceded and stood down as Leader of the National Progressive Party.

Notable defeats included National Unity members, Deidre Schmidt in Walco and Thomas Grimes in Greenwood, both of whom were defeated with double digit swings against them. Notable entrants of Parliament included, son of Former President Alain Bronson, Jason Bronson (PCP), elected to Rochester, and niece of Christian Ross, Halima Lurtan (SDM), elected to Falcon's Neck.

Background

At the previous General Election, the Social Democratic Movement was elected to a minority government with the NUP providing confidence and supply. Sweeping the 'Super Saturday' by-elections to 56 vacated NUP seats by winning all fifty-six in November of 2031 and subsequent by-elections, criminal disqualifications and party defections led to the Social Democrats being two seats short of a majority. The Progressive Conservatives changed leaders in July 2033 after poor polling led to a backbench coup of leadership.

Major issues discussed over the course of the election were the Climate Refugee Crisis, Crime Epidemic in Madagascar and the Trade Balance.

Procedure and Timeline

Results

House of Commons (IRV) — Turnout 93.27% (CV)
Party Votes % Swing Seats Change
  Social Democratic Movement 354,926,662 54.58 +3.60 541 +140
  Progressive Conservative Party 290,265,931 45.42 –3.60 400 +108

Seat gains shown are gains made by the parties compared to it's last election standing, and do not include gains made throughout the term of Parliament.

Analysis

The result was considered a complete rout of the National Union Party which had provided confidence and supply to the Social Democratic minority government. The SDM's election to a third term was expected, but it was not expected to be a majority government. Polls had failed to accurately predict the locations of NUP support collapsing, in some seats swings of over twenty points were recorded from the NUP to either the SDM or NPP.

The 140 seat gain remains one of the largest in Saren history for an incumbent government, but remains on the lower end of recent seat exchanges.

The election has also been seen as a 'major transition' point in Saren political dynamics. The Progressive Conservatives were returned in rural and farm based seats, many of which had not elected it, or it's predecessor (the Conservative Party), since the early 20th or late 19th century. The election also marked the creation of a new coalition noted as the 'Camilla Coalition', a coalition between the suburban middle class, urban and rural working class and the inner-city left-wing vote unified behind the re-election of Camilla Parker. Simultaneously, the PCP reformed an older coalition held by the Conservative Party at one point consisting of social conservatives, urban professionals and business-friendly voters. This was especially apparent in Rochester, where the PCP increased it's margin by double digits to hold 61.5% of the two-party preferred vote from 50.9% in 2030, broadly similar swings were notable in other seats of shared characteristics as the PCP solidified it's support among coastal, affluent communities.

Opinion Polling

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