2021 United States Senate special election in Wisconsin (ATB RP): Difference between revisions
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! style="width:100px;"| Serah Kurian | ! style="width:100px;"| Serah Kurian | ||
! Undecided | ! Undecided | ||
|- | |||
| Surveylance Polling | |||
| align=center| February 25-27, 2021 | |||
| align=center| 33% | |||
| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| '''34%''' | |||
| align=center| 14% | |||
| align=center| 19% | |||
|- | |||
| General Reports | |||
| align=center| February 16-19, 2021 | |||
| align=center| 30% | |||
| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| '''34%''' | |||
| align=center| 20% | |||
| align=center| 16% | |||
|- | |||
| The Aggregator/CNN | |||
| align=center| February 16-18, 2021 | |||
| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| '''34%''' | |||
| align=center| 33% | |||
| align=center| 20% | |||
| align=center| 13% | |||
|- | |||
| Opinionark | |||
| align=center| February 16-17, 2021 | |||
| align=center| 29% | |||
| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| '''33%''' | |||
| align=center| 23% | |||
| align=center| 15% | |||
|- | |||
| Surveylance | |||
| align=center| February 15-16, 2021 | |||
| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| '''32%''' | |||
| align=center| 30% | |||
| align=center| 15% | |||
| align=center| 21% | |||
|- | |- | ||
| General Reports | | General Reports | ||
Line 86: | Line 121: | ||
==Democratic Primary== | ==Democratic Primary== | ||
Two major candidates announced their intention to run and filed before the filing deadline. | |||
A primary debate was held on Monday, February 22, 2021. | |||
===Candidates=== | ===Candidates=== | ||
====Declared==== | ====Declared==== | ||
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! style="width:100px;"| Natasha Gauthier | ! style="width:100px;"| Natasha Gauthier | ||
! Undecided | ! Undecided | ||
|- | |||
| General Reports | |||
| align=center| February 16-19, 2021 | |||
| align=center| 26% | |||
| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| '''30%''' | |||
| {{party shading/Undecided}} align=center| '''44%''' | |||
|- | |||
| General Reports | |||
| align=center| February 11-14, 2021 | |||
| align=center| 24% | |||
| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| '''27%''' | |||
| {{party shading/Undecided}} align=center| '''49%''' | |||
|- | |- | ||
| Opinionark | | Opinionark | ||
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| yAxisMin = 0 | | yAxisMin = 0 | ||
| linewidth = 2 | | linewidth = 2 | ||
| x = 2021/01/21, 2021/01/22, 2021/01/24, 2021/01/25, 2021/01/27, 2021/02/01, 2021/02/02, 2021/02/04, 2021/02/06 | | x = 2021/01/21, 2021/01/22, 2021/01/24, 2021/01/25, 2021/01/27, 2021/02/01, 2021/02/02, 2021/02/04, 2021/02/06, 2021/02/09, 2021/02/11 | ||
| y1 = | | y1 = | ||
41, 45, 47, 48, 42, 47, 47, 45, 42 | 41, 45, 47, 48, 42, 47, 47, 45, 42, 43, 47 | ||
<!-- Dems --> | <!-- Dems --> | ||
| y2 = | | y2 = | ||
44, 43, 43, 45, 43, 44, 45, 46, 44 | 44, 43, 43, 45, 43, 44, 45, 46, 44, 43, 47 | ||
<!-- Rep --> | <!-- Rep --> | ||
<!-- Others --> | <!-- Others --> | ||
Line 161: | Line 211: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|The Aggregator | |The Aggregator | ||
|Until February | |Until February 14, 2021 | ||
|44. | |44.1% | ||
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|''' | |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''44.9%''' | ||
|10. | |10.8% | ||
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''Democratic +0. | |{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''Democratic +0.8''' | ||
|} | |} | ||
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! Poll source | ! Poll source | ||
! Date(s)<br />administered | ! Date(s)<br />administered | ||
! style="width:100px;"| Generic<br />Republican | ! style="width:100px;"| Generic<br />Republican | ||
! style="width:100px;"| Generic<br />Democratic | ! style="width:100px;"| Generic<br />Democratic | ||
! Undecided | ! Undecided | ||
|- | |||
| General Reports | |||
| align=center| February 11-14, 2021 | |||
| align=center| '''47%''' | |||
| align=center| '''47%''' | |||
| align=center| 6% | |||
|- | |||
| Opinionark | |||
| align=center| February 9-13, 2021 | |||
| align=center| '''43%''' | |||
| align=center| '''43%''' | |||
| align=center| 14% | |||
|- | |- | ||
| Surveylance Polling | | Surveylance Polling | ||
| align=center| February 5-13, 2021 | | align=center| February 5-13, 2021 | ||
| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| '''44%'''{{efn|name=undetermined|Poll Actual result: 44.5%}} | | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| '''44%'''{{efn|name=undetermined|Poll Actual result: 44.5%}} | ||
| align=center| 42% | | align=center| 42% | ||
Line 188: | Line 246: | ||
| Goldwater Institute | | Goldwater Institute | ||
| align=center| February 4-6, 2021 | | align=center| February 4-6, 2021 | ||
| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| '''46%''' | | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| '''46%''' | ||
| align=center| 45% | | align=center| 45% | ||
Line 196: | Line 252: | ||
| Stuyvesant Polling | | Stuyvesant Polling | ||
| align=center| February 2-3, 2021 | | align=center| February 2-3, 2021 | ||
| align=center| 45% | | align=center| 45% | ||
| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| '''47%''' | | {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| '''47%''' | ||
Line 204: | Line 258: | ||
| General Reports | | General Reports | ||
| align=center| February 1-5, 2021 | | align=center| February 1-5, 2021 | ||
| align=center| 43% | | align=center| 43% | ||
| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| '''47%''' | | {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| '''47%''' | ||
Line 212: | Line 264: | ||
| Opinionark | | Opinionark | ||
| align=center| January 27-28, 2021 | | align=center| January 27-28, 2021 | ||
| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| '''43%''' | | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| '''43%''' | ||
| align=center| 42% | | align=center| 42% | ||
Line 220: | Line 270: | ||
| General Reports | | General Reports | ||
| align=center| January 24-27, 2021 | | align=center| January 24-27, 2021 | ||
| align=center| 45% | | align=center| 45% | ||
| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| '''48%''' | | {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| '''48%''' | ||
Line 228: | Line 276: | ||
| Surveyor (D) | | Surveyor (D) | ||
| align=center| January 24-26, 2021 | | align=center| January 24-26, 2021 | ||
| align=center| 43% | | align=center| 43% | ||
| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| '''47%''' | | {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| '''47%''' | ||
Line 236: | Line 282: | ||
| Anderson Polling (R) | | Anderson Polling (R) | ||
| align=center| January 22–25, 2021 | | align=center| January 22–25, 2021 | ||
| align=center| 43% | | align=center| 43% | ||
| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| '''45%''' | | {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| '''45%''' | ||
Line 244: | Line 288: | ||
| Richard Pussey Pollsters | | Richard Pussey Pollsters | ||
| align=center| January 21–24, 2021 | | align=center| January 21–24, 2021 | ||
| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| '''44%''' | | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| '''44%''' | ||
| align=center| 41% | | align=center| 41% |
Latest revision as of 11:39, 3 November 2021
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The 2021 United States Senate special election in Wisconsin will be held on March 30, 2021, to fill a vacancy in the U.S. Senate through January 3, 2022, arising from the death of Jon Ronson in January 2021.
In accordance with Wisconsin law, a special election was ordered on January 18, 2021 by the Governor of Wisconsin. The filing deadline for this election is February 2, 2021, with the special primary scheduled for March 2, 2021.
The late incumbent Republican Senator Jon Ronson was first elected in 2010. In 2016, he was reelected with 50.17% of the vote.
Wisconsin's Senate seat is expected to be one of the most heavily targeted by national Democrats for a potential flip as the party has seen considerable success in recent statewide elections, notably in the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats won every statewide contest on the ballot in Wisconsin (including the state's other Senate seat). Furthermore, a Republican victory in this race would constitute a federal Republican trifecta and it has accordingly captured a wide nationwide following.
Republican Primary
Three major candidates announced their intention to run and filed before the filing deadline.
A primary debate was held on Monday, February 15, 2021.
Candidates
Declared
- Christopher Duncan Jr., Former Deputy White House Communications Director (2018 - 2019), nominee for the 2nd congressional district in 2020
- Daniel Gundersen, Mayor of Waukesha, Wisconsin (2016 - Present) and Founder of Dairy Dan's
- Serah Kurian, U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 8th Congressional District (2013-)
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Dan Gundersen | Christopher Duncan Jr. | Serah Kurian | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Surveylance Polling | February 25-27, 2021 | 33% | 34% | 14% | 19% |
General Reports | February 16-19, 2021 | 30% | 34% | 20% | 16% |
The Aggregator/CNN | February 16-18, 2021 | 34% | 33% | 20% | 13% |
Opinionark | February 16-17, 2021 | 29% | 33% | 23% | 15% |
Surveylance | February 15-16, 2021 | 32% | 30% | 15% | 21% |
General Reports | February 11-14, 2021 | 23% | 21% | 16% | 40% |
Opinionark | February 9-13, 2021 | 21% | 19% | 13% | 47% |
Anderson Polling (R) | February 6-10, 2021 | 20% | 16% | 13% | 51% |
Surveylance Polling | February 5-10, 2021 | 23% | 14% | 12% | 50% |
Democratic Primary
Two major candidates announced their intention to run and filed before the filing deadline.
A primary debate was held on Monday, February 22, 2021.
Candidates
Declared
- Everson Boyd, U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district (1997 - Present), Former Secretary of Labor (1993 - 1997)
- Natasha Gauthier, Attorney General of Wisconsin (2019 - Present), Former District Attorney for Milwaukee County (2011 - 2018)
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Everson Boyd | Natasha Gauthier | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|
General Reports | February 16-19, 2021 | 26% | 30% | 44% |
General Reports | February 11-14, 2021 | 24% | 27% | 49% |
Opinionark | February 9-13, 2021 | 21% | 25% | 54% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Everson Boyd | Someone Else | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|
Surveylance | February 1-13, 2021 | 23% | 10% | 65% |
General Election
Predictions
Polling
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Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democratic |
Undecided | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Aggregator | Until February 14, 2021 | 44.1% | 44.9% | 10.8% | Democratic +0.8 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democratic |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|
General Reports | February 11-14, 2021 | 47% | 47% | 6% |
Opinionark | February 9-13, 2021 | 43% | 43% | 14% |
Surveylance Polling | February 5-13, 2021 | 44%[a] | 42% | 14%[b] |
Goldwater Institute | February 4-6, 2021 | 46% | 45% | 9% |
Stuyvesant Polling | February 2-3, 2021 | 45% | 47% | 8% |
General Reports | February 1-5, 2021 | 43% | 47% | 9% |
Opinionark | January 27-28, 2021 | 43% | 42% | 15% |
General Reports | January 24-27, 2021 | 45% | 48% | 7% |
Surveyor (D) | January 24-26, 2021 | 43% | 47% | 10% |
Anderson Polling (R) | January 22–25, 2021 | 43% | 45% | 12% |
Richard Pussey Pollsters | January 21–24, 2021 | 44% | 41% | 15% |