2018 Esthursian general election

2018 Esthursian general election

7 April, 2018
851 in the House of Members; 401 in the House of Barons
Turnout	78.1%
First party Second party Third party   Leader Harold Osborne Stephen Alborough Jeremy Wilson Party Social Democrats Conservative Party Progressive Group Leader since 30 January, 2015 22 July, 2011 19 May, 2014 Last election 97 Barons 292 Members 114 Barons 247 Members 59 Barons 42 Members Seats won 130 Barons 459 Members 107 Barons 166 Members 57 Barons 73 Members Seat change 33 167 7 81 2 31 Popular vote 25,380,829 32,531,447 20,837,347 19,069,225 11,123,696 8,309,192 Percentage 32.4% 41.1% 26.6% 24.1% 14.2% 10.5% Swing 8.3% 9.1% 1.8% 3.9% 0.5% 2.1%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Helga Járnsson Morwen Llethan John Frampton Party Asthoric Workers' Party The Localist Group Middle Group Leader since 8 December, 2017 2 April, 2003 10 October, 2014 Last election 26 Barons 104 Members 14 Barons 31 Members 14 Barons 28 Members Seats won 29 Barons 53 Members 24 Barons 47 Members 20 Barons 34 Members Seat change 3 51 10 16 6 6 Popular vote 5,641,332 4,035,395 4,684,839 5,222,278 3,197,044 6,092,657 Percentage 7.2% 5.1% 6.0% 6.6% 5.0% 7.7% Swing 0.7% 3.2% 2.5% 2.1% 1.5% 3.7%
Prime Minister before election Harold Osborne Social Democrats (dual-minority) Elected Prime Minister Harold Osborne Social Democrats (minor-majority)

The 2018 Esthursian general election was held on 7 April, 2018, as per the Constitution term limits. This election was unique in that all three contending New Democratic Coalition leaders - the left-leaning coalition formed following the 2011 general election - had not previously led their respective parties through a general election. The Social Democrats won back its majority in the Members, and made significant gains in the Barons, the former partly thanks to tactical voting by pro-Coalition voters.

The main features of the campaign included the imminent partial nationalisation of Asgeron, Esthursia's largest automotives manufacturer; public sector pay; the economic record of both coalitions and the relations within both the New Democratic Coalition and the Conservative Party. This is also the first election where a major party supported the gradual phasing out of the monarchy, with the Asthoric Workers' Party's new leader, Helga Járnsson, taking the party towards the libertarian-left. Járnsson was also (and remains, as of 2022) the youngest major party leader, where major means party attaining at or over 5% consistently in polling and in elections.

Although opinion polling initially suggested that the Social Democrats were facing a strong challenge from the Agrarian Democrats for centrist voters, the Agrarians were besmirched by "Lobbygate", whereby the leader of the party and the party chairman were accused of lobbying on behalf of General Healthcare, a private healthcare service provider, in the House of Barons, in spite of the amnesty period granting them temporary relief from standing trial. The party leader was later found not guilty on all counts, however the party chairman was suspended indefinitely following a guilty conviction.

The Conservatives held most of their Barony seats thanks to the collapse of the Agrarian Democrats, however suffered significant Members losses thanks to the rise of the Middle Party in rural areas and the Social Democrats in urban areas. Additionally, the Localist Group recovered notably from their nadir in the previous general election.

The Social Democrats announced, on 12 April, that the New Democratic Coalition would only be preserved in the Barony, with all three parties agreeing to grant the two smaller partners the same Upper Cabinet positions in the Barony but lose their Lower Cabinet positions in the Members. The Conservatives chose not to renew their agreement with the Agrarian Democrats, marking the first time that the party stood alone in the Members and the Barony since 2012 - when the Agrarians had broken off in protest at then-PM Gregory Manning's handling of the economy.

Significant shifts included the Progressive Group primarily winning middle-class, urban or professional votes, the Conservatives continuing to shift away from the middle-class, the Social Democrats winning semi-rural votes, and age being a determining factor in party choice - with the Conservatives winning in every age over 65.