2024 Mel-akkan Vernal Equinox Election: Difference between revisions
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The '''2024 Mel-akkan Vernal Equinox Election''' | [[File:Svgfiles 2024-03-20-01-40-23-259837-10971898540788046713.svg|thumb|[[Commissions of Mel-akkam|Coordinating Council]] after the election | ||
{{legend|#1AAD69|Progressive: 22 seats}}{{legend|#FFBF00|LDP: 6 seats}}{{legend|#BEBEBE|Coalition: 5 seats}}{{legend|#E553BE|RF: 4 seats}}{{legend|#0000FF|KDP: 2 seats}} {{legend|#3CADE3|NL: 1 seat}}]] | |||
The '''2024 Mel-akkan Vernal Equinox Election''' were held on 21st April 2024 to elect the members of the [[Commissions of Mel-akkam|four commissions]]. Voters each cast four ballots, electing one member of each commission from each constituency, using the [[wikipedia:first-past-the-post|first-past-the-post]] method. | |||
==Opinion Polling== | ==Opinion Polling== | ||
=== | ===2024=== | ||
====After Restoration Front==== | |||
{| class="wikitable sortable" | |||
|- | |||
! Date !! Polling firm !! [[Progressive Party (Mel-akkam)|PP]] !! [[Liberal Democratic Party (Mel-akkam)|LDP]] !! [[Coalition of Independents|KPL]] !! [[Restoration Front|RF]] !! [[Kot-diji Party|KDP]] !! [[New Liberals|NL]] !! Lead | |||
|- | |||
! | | |||
! | | |||
! style="background:#1AAD69" | | |||
! style="background:#FFBF00" | | |||
! style="background:#BEBEBE" | | |||
! style="background:#E553BE" | | |||
! style="background:#0000FF" | | |||
! style="background:#3CADE3" | | |||
! | | |||
|- | |||
| 11 Mar || [[Dholavira Signboard]] || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|'''45.3%''' || 19.2% || 20.0% || 9.4% || 0.2% || 6.3% || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|26.1% | |||
|- | |||
| 3 Mar || [[Dholavira Signboard]] || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|'''46.6%''' || 18.8% || 18.5% || 10.1% || 0.2% || 6.7% || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|27.9% | |||
|- | |||
| 28 Mar || [[Dholavira Signboard]] || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|'''46.8%''' || 18.9% || 18.7% || 10.0% || 0.2% || 5.0% || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|27.9% | |||
|- | |||
| 18 Feb || [[Dholavira Signboard]] || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|'''43.9%''' || 18.6% || 18.4% || 10.8% || 0.2% || 4.9% || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|25.3% | |||
|- | |||
|} | |||
====Before Restoration Front==== | |||
{| class="wikitable sortable" | {| class="wikitable sortable" | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Line 18: | Line 47: | ||
! | | ! | | ||
|- | |- | ||
| 5 Feb || [[Dholavira Signboard]] || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|'''46.7%''' || 18.6% || 16.3% || 5. | | 18 Feb || [[Dholavira Signboard]] || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|'''43.9%''' || 18.6% || 18.4% || 5.8% || 5.0% || 0.2% || 4.9% || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|25.3% | ||
|- | |||
| 8 Feb || [[Dholavira Signboard]] || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|'''45.8%''' || 17.9% || 19.5% || 5.1% || 6.6% || 0.3% || 3.6% || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|26.3% | |||
|- | |||
| 5 Feb || [[Dholavira Signboard]] || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|'''46.7%''' || 18.6% || 16.3% || 5.6% || 6.6% || 0.3% || 3.9% || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|28.1% | |||
|- | |- | ||
| 28 Jan || [[Dholavira Signboard]] || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|'''44.8%''' || 19.0% || 16.9% || 6.2% || 6.5% || 0.4% || 4.1% || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|25.8% | | 28 Jan || [[Dholavira Signboard]] || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|'''44.8%''' || 19.0% || 16.9% || 6.2% || 6.5% || 0.4% || 4.1% || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|25.8% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| 10 Jan || [[Dholavira Signboard]] || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|'''51.1%''' || 19.1% || 18.9% || 7.8% || 7.6% || 1.3% || 0.4% || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|32.0% | | 10 Jan || [[Dholavira Signboard]] || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|'''51.1%''' || 19.1% || 18.9% || 7.8% || 7.6% || 1.3% || 0.4% || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|32.0% | ||
|} | |||
===2023=== | |||
{| class="wikitable sortable" | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | ! Date !! Polling firm !! [[Progressive Party (Mel-akkam)|PP]] !! [[Liberal Democratic Party (Mel-akkam)|LDP]] !! [[Coalition of Independents|KPL]] !! [[Originalist Progressive Party|OPP]] !! [[Workers' Revolutionary Party|WRP]] !! Lead | ||
|- | |- | ||
| 12 Nov || [[Dholavira Signboard]] || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|'''36.9%''' || 21.8% || 21.1% || 8.9% || 9.3% | ! | | ||
! | | |||
! style="background:#1AAD69" | | |||
! style="background:#FFBF00" | | |||
! style="background:#BEBEBE" | | |||
! style="background:#512888" | | |||
! style="background:#FF0000" | | |||
! | | |||
|- | |||
| 28 Dec || [[Dholavira Signboard]] || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|'''44.6%''' || 19.3% || 19.1% || 8.2% || 7.9% || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|25.3% | |||
|- | |||
| 12 Nov || [[Dholavira Signboard]] || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|'''36.9%''' || 21.8% || 21.1% || 8.9% || 9.3% || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|15.1% | |||
|- | |- | ||
| 5 Nov || [[Dholavira Signboard]] || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|'''35.5%''' || 23.0% || 19.4% || 9.7% || 9.9% | | 5 Nov || [[Dholavira Signboard]] || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|'''35.5%''' || 23.0% || 19.4% || 9.7% || 9.9% || bgcolor="#1AAD69"|12.5% | ||
|} | |} | ||
==Results== | |||
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:right; font-size: 100%;" | |||
|-style="background:#e9e9e9;" | |||
!colspan="2" style="text-align:left"|Parties | |||
!Votes | |||
!% | |||
!Seats | |||
!± | |||
|- | |||
|style="background:#00A86B"| | |||
|style="text-align:left"|'''[[Progressive Party (Mel-akkam)|Progressive]]''' | |||
|'''470,384,535''' | |||
|'''47.2''' | |||
|'''22''' | |||
| +3 | |||
|- | |||
|style="background:#BEBEBE"| | |||
|style="text-align:left"|[[Coalition of Independents|Coalition]] | |||
|174,401,046 | |||
|17.5 | |||
|5 | |||
| -2 | |||
|- | |||
|style="background:#FFBF00"| | |||
|style="text-align:left"|[[Liberal Democratic Party (Mel-akkam)|LDP]] | |||
|148,490,033 | |||
|14.9 | |||
|6 | |||
| -2 | |||
|- | |||
|style="background:#E553BE"| | |||
|style="text-align:left"|[[Restoration Front|RF]] | |||
|140,517,414 | |||
|14.1 | |||
|4 | |||
| ±0 | |||
|- | |||
|style="background:#3CADE3"| | |||
|style="text-align:left"|[[New Liberals|NL]] | |||
|47,835,715 | |||
|4.8 | |||
|1 | |||
| New | |||
|- | |||
|style="background: #0000FF"| | |||
|style="text-align:left"|[[Kot-diji Party|KDP]] | |||
|4,982,887 | |||
|0.5 | |||
|2 | |||
| ±0 | |||
|- | |||
|style="background:#000000"| | |||
|style="text-align:left"|KPP | |||
|996,577 | |||
|0.1 | |||
|0 | |||
| ±0 | |||
|- | |||
!colspan="6"| | |||
|- | |||
|colspan="2" style="text-align:left"|'''Total''' | |||
|'''249,144,351''' | |||
|'''100%''' | |||
|40 | |||
|0 | |||
|- | |||
|colspan="2" style="text-align:left"|'''Eligible voters and turnout''' | |||
|~400,000,000 | |||
|62.3% | |||
|colspan="2"| | |||
|} | |||
==Analysis== | |||
On a record-low turnout, voters re-elected the incumbent [[Progressive Party (Mel-akkam)|Progressive Party]] in a landslide, delivering Mel-akkam's first parliamentary majority since 2017. Progressive candidates won clean sweeps in the provinces of [[Mohenjo-daro Province|Mohenjo-daro]] and Dholavira, as well as their first-ever seat in the [[Shortugai|Shortugai Exclave]]. The Progressive Party ended up winning a commanding majority in the Social Commission, exactly half of the seats in the Economic and Judicial commissions, and a plurality in the Diplomatic Commission. | |||
The main opposition [[Coalition of Independents]] was decisively defeated, losing both votes and seats. The Progressives' junior government partner, the [[Liberal Democratic Party (Mel-akkam)|Liberal Democratic Party]], lost seats as well, and almost lost its third-place vote share to the [[Restoration Front]], which lost votes compared to 2023 but maintained its seat count. The newly-formed [[New Liberals]] won almost 5% of the vote and one seat, but underperformed compared to its polling results. The single-province [[Kot-diji Party|KDP]] saw no change in its seat count and vote share. | |||
The elections were widely perceived as a return to Mel-akkam's era of Progressive dominance, following a few years of strong opposition showings. Commentators noted that the strong showing would likely drive increased factionalism within the PP. | |||
==Aftermath== | |||
The Progressives, having won a working majority in three out of four commissions and in the Coordinating Council, were well-poised to form a government. The Progressives announced that their Deputy Leader, [[Ekabhi Prayam]], would lead coalition negotiations. In accordance with the custom of meeting with all parties in order of their seat count, Prayam initially contacted the Liberal Democratic Party, and reportedly sought to renew the incumbent coalition, but was rebuffed by LDP leader [[Vyaparam Vedan]], who announced that his party would leave the government and sit as independents. Prayam then approached the Coalition of Independents, but both parties issued a statement asserting that discussions had not been fruitful. The Restoration Front refused to meet with Prayam. Prayam finally contacted the Kot-diji Party, and the two groups agreed to form a coalition government with ten Progressive members and two KDP members. An investiture vote was then held for the incumbent Leader of the Government, Progressive [[Nirtyam Am'mayi]], who subsequently appointed the agreed-upon cabinet. | |||
Faced with poor election results, LDP leader Vyaparam Vedan was widely expected to resign as party leader, but refused to do so. A leadership election was subsequently held and won by Niyantra Ledu. | |||
Latest revision as of 19:24, 13 June 2024
The 2024 Mel-akkan Vernal Equinox Election were held on 21st April 2024 to elect the members of the four commissions. Voters each cast four ballots, electing one member of each commission from each constituency, using the first-past-the-post method.
Opinion Polling
2024
After Restoration Front
| Date | Polling firm | PP | LDP | KPL | RF | KDP | NL | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar | Dholavira Signboard | 45.3% | 19.2% | 20.0% | 9.4% | 0.2% | 6.3% | 26.1% |
| 3 Mar | Dholavira Signboard | 46.6% | 18.8% | 18.5% | 10.1% | 0.2% | 6.7% | 27.9% |
| 28 Mar | Dholavira Signboard | 46.8% | 18.9% | 18.7% | 10.0% | 0.2% | 5.0% | 27.9% |
| 18 Feb | Dholavira Signboard | 43.9% | 18.6% | 18.4% | 10.8% | 0.2% | 4.9% | 25.3% |
Before Restoration Front
| Date | Polling firm | PP | LDP | KPL | OPP | WRP | KDP | NL | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb | Dholavira Signboard | 43.9% | 18.6% | 18.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 0.2% | 4.9% | 25.3% |
| 8 Feb | Dholavira Signboard | 45.8% | 17.9% | 19.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 26.3% |
| 5 Feb | Dholavira Signboard | 46.7% | 18.6% | 16.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 0.3% | 3.9% | 28.1% |
| 28 Jan | Dholavira Signboard | 44.8% | 19.0% | 16.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 0.4% | 4.1% | 25.8% |
| 10 Jan | Dholavira Signboard | 51.1% | 19.1% | 18.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 32.0% |
2023
| Date | Polling firm | PP | LDP | KPL | OPP | WRP | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Dec | Dholavira Signboard | 44.6% | 19.3% | 19.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 25.3% |
| 12 Nov | Dholavira Signboard | 36.9% | 21.8% | 21.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 15.1% |
| 5 Nov | Dholavira Signboard | 35.5% | 23.0% | 19.4% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 12.5% |
Results
| Parties | Votes | % | Seats | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive | 470,384,535 | 47.2 | 22 | +3 | |
| Coalition | 174,401,046 | 17.5 | 5 | -2 | |
| LDP | 148,490,033 | 14.9 | 6 | -2 | |
| RF | 140,517,414 | 14.1 | 4 | ±0 | |
| NL | 47,835,715 | 4.8 | 1 | New | |
| KDP | 4,982,887 | 0.5 | 2 | ±0 | |
| KPP | 996,577 | 0.1 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Total | 249,144,351 | 100% | 40 | 0 | |
| Eligible voters and turnout | ~400,000,000 | 62.3% | |||
Analysis
On a record-low turnout, voters re-elected the incumbent Progressive Party in a landslide, delivering Mel-akkam's first parliamentary majority since 2017. Progressive candidates won clean sweeps in the provinces of Mohenjo-daro and Dholavira, as well as their first-ever seat in the Shortugai Exclave. The Progressive Party ended up winning a commanding majority in the Social Commission, exactly half of the seats in the Economic and Judicial commissions, and a plurality in the Diplomatic Commission.
The main opposition Coalition of Independents was decisively defeated, losing both votes and seats. The Progressives' junior government partner, the Liberal Democratic Party, lost seats as well, and almost lost its third-place vote share to the Restoration Front, which lost votes compared to 2023 but maintained its seat count. The newly-formed New Liberals won almost 5% of the vote and one seat, but underperformed compared to its polling results. The single-province KDP saw no change in its seat count and vote share.
The elections were widely perceived as a return to Mel-akkam's era of Progressive dominance, following a few years of strong opposition showings. Commentators noted that the strong showing would likely drive increased factionalism within the PP.
Aftermath
The Progressives, having won a working majority in three out of four commissions and in the Coordinating Council, were well-poised to form a government. The Progressives announced that their Deputy Leader, Ekabhi Prayam, would lead coalition negotiations. In accordance with the custom of meeting with all parties in order of their seat count, Prayam initially contacted the Liberal Democratic Party, and reportedly sought to renew the incumbent coalition, but was rebuffed by LDP leader Vyaparam Vedan, who announced that his party would leave the government and sit as independents. Prayam then approached the Coalition of Independents, but both parties issued a statement asserting that discussions had not been fruitful. The Restoration Front refused to meet with Prayam. Prayam finally contacted the Kot-diji Party, and the two groups agreed to form a coalition government with ten Progressive members and two KDP members. An investiture vote was then held for the incumbent Leader of the Government, Progressive Nirtyam Am'mayi, who subsequently appointed the agreed-upon cabinet.
Faced with poor election results, LDP leader Vyaparam Vedan was widely expected to resign as party leader, but refused to do so. A leadership election was subsequently held and won by Niyantra Ledu.