2021 Steinborgian federal election

2021 Steinborgian federal election

October 31, 2021 (2021-10-31)
All 200 seats in the Federal Parliament 101 seats needed for a majority
Registered	70,901,452
Turnout	49,914,267 (70.4%) 12.4 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Jaan Kruus Kristel Miller Juri Ilves Party People's Greens Christian Democrats Last election 73 seats, 33.8% 21 seats, 9.2% 22 seats, 11.1% Seats won 74 27 27 Seat change 1 6 5 Popular vote 17,459,686 6,212,028 5,903,642 Percentage 35.0% 12.5% 11.8% Swing 1.2 pp 3.3 pp 0.7 pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Mikko Lahtinen Karin Lill Niko Huhtala Party Social Democrats New Democracy Liberals Last election 28 seats, 12.9% 14 seats, 7.2% 15 seats, 6.9% Seats won 23 18 17 Seat change 5 4 2 Popular vote 5,412,323 4,186,224 3,708,892 Percentage 10.8% 8.4% 7.4% Swing 2.1 pp 1.2 pp 0.5 pp   Seventh party Eighth party   Leader Olga Raudsepp Anne Nieminen Party Worker's Alternative Last election 15 seats, 8.2% 12 seats, 6.8% Seats won 9 5 Seat change 6 7 Popular vote 2,985,675 2,032,825 Percentage 6.0% 4.1% Swing 2.2 pp 2.7 pp
Share of the popular vote by leading party in each constituency
Paalik before election Jaan Kruus People's Party Paalik Jaan Kruus People's Party

Federal elections were held in Steinborg on 31 October 2021 to elect the members of the 24th Federal Parliament. All 200 members of the Federal Parliament were elected in 15 multi-member constituencies.

The economy, climate change, crime and government spending were the main issues of the campaign. The People's Party and its coalition government consisting of the Christian Democratic Forum and the Liberals ran on their record of falling crime rates and economic recovery, and the coalition also used the personal popularity of Paalik Jaan Kruus in their campaign. The Greens and New Democracy ran a joint campaign, advocating for a fight against climate change, greater government spending on infrastructure and green energy and the legalisation of same-sex marriage. The Social Democratic Party, the Worker's Party and the Alternative all faced infighting amid their poor performances in the previous election and they failed to deliver a coherent message during the campaign.

All the parties in the coalition government increased their vote share and seat count for the first time since 2001. The People's Party managed to retain their overwhelming vote share compared to the other parties, entrenching its positions as the by far biggest party. The anticipated progressive wave did not fully materialize, but the Greens and New Democracy still experienced an increase in ther vote and seat share. The Social Democrats, Worker's Party and Alternative all experienced losses. While turnout fell by 12 percent, it was still way ahead of the historical average.

The sitting coalition government was again assembled with minimal changes and Jaan Kruus was reelected as Paalik on 10th November 2021.

Electoral system

The 200 members of the Federal Parliament are elected in 14 multi-member constituencies, being the fourteen counties, and one single-member consticuency, the island of Ensamo. Seats are allocated using the Sainte-Laguë method, with an electoral threshold of 5% per constituency, expect in Ensamo, where a first-past-the-post system is used.

Seats are allocated to constituencies based on the number of registered voters in them. The allocation of seats for the 2021 election was the following:

Seats by constituency

Constituency	Seats
01 Ensamo	1
02 Pohjameri	15
03 Iounameri	14
04 Laanemaa	12
05 Parla	24
06 Tooru	18
07 Keskmaa	12
08 Kirkmaa	10
09 Itanien Kotimaa	12
10 Lantinen Kotimaa	13
11 Isovouri	7
12 Rohland	10
13 Mustastein	15
14 Valkenstein	18
15 Vappe	19

All Steinborgian citizens aged 18 or over have the right to participate in the election. Non-Steinborgian citizens residing in Steinborg cannot vote, whereas Steinborgian citizens living abroad can register to vote.

Parties

Party	Ideology	Political position	Leader	2017 result	Status
People's Party	Liberal conservatism	Centre-right to right-wing	Jaan Kruus	73 / 150	Governing coalition
Social Democratic Party	Social democracy	Centre-left	Mikko Lahtinen	28 / 150	Opposition
Christian Democratic Forum	Christian democracy	Centre to centre-right	Juri Ilves	22 / 150	Governing coalition
Green Party	Green politics	Centre-left	Kristel Miller	21 / 150	Opposition
Worker's Party	Socialism Marxism	Left-wing to far-left	Olga Raudsepp	15 / 150	Opposition
Liberals	Liberalism Conservative liberalism	Centre-right	Niko Huhtala	15 / 150	Governing coalition
New Democracy	Social liberalism	Centre to centre-left	Karin Lill	14 / 150	Opposition
Alternative	Right-wing populism	Right-wing to far-right	Anne Nieminen	12 / 150	Opposition

Opinion polls

Polling aggregations

Polling aggregator	Last Update									Lead
Faqos	29 Oct 2021	34.5	10.8	10.5	14.1	5.5	9.2	6.8	4.6	20.4
Electomania	28 Oct 2021	33.3	11.4	10.1	14.6	5.4	9.8	6.6	4.8	18.7
Pollista	28 Oct 2021	32.9	11.9	9.8	15.1	6.4	9.1	6.3	4.5	17.8

Results

National results

Parties		Votes	%	±	Seats	±
	People's Party	17,459,686	34.98	1.21	74	1
	Green Party	6,212,028	12.45	3.28	27	6
	Christian Democratic Forum	5,903,642	11.83	0.73	27	5
	Social Democratic Party	5,412,323	10.84	2.12	23	5
	New Democracy	4,186,224	8.39	1.19	18	4
	Liberals	3,708,892	7.43	0.52	17	2
	Worker's Party	2,985,675	5.98	2.23	9	6
	Alternative	2,032,825	4.07	2.69	5	7
	Others	1,432,539	2.87	0.45	0
	Invalid/blank votes	613,946	1.16	0.56
Total		49,914,267	100%		200

Results by constituency

Constituency
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Ensamo	31.8	11.8	12.9	12.7	7.5	7.8	6.4	5.1
Pohjameri	38.0	7.9	9.7	13.2	7.2	8.9	7.5	3.6
Iounameri	28.7	9.6	9.0	16.3	12.2	9.2	6.5	4.5
Laanemaa	30.7	10.8	11.7	13.5	7.4	10.3	8.2	3.4
Parla	34.3	7.1	5.1	19.4	7.7	13.0	7.6	1.8
Torru	37.5	8.2	10.5	12.9	7.4	8.2	7.1	4.2
Keskmaa	32.7	12.0	13.1	11.8	7.6	8.0	5.5	5.3
Kirkmaa	32.4	10.4	14.2	13.3	7.3	8.8	6.4	3.2
Itanien Kotimaa	33.1	14.5	17.4	8.1	3.5	5.8	6.4	7.2
Lantinen Kotimaa	30.4	16.2	15.9	9.5	4.6	6.7	7.3	5.4
Isovouri	32.5	15.0	18.1	8.4	3.3	5.5	6.7	6.5
Rohland	35.3	12.7	14.8	9.3	3.0	6.4	10.2	4.3
Mustastein	32.9	15.4	16.7	8.7	3.6	6.1	7.1	5.5
Valkenstein	42.7	9.8	13.5	9.0	3.1	6.3	7.7	3.9
Vappe	40.5	9.9	8.1	13.3	4.1	9.2	8.7	2.2
Total	35.0	10.8	11.8	12.5	6.0	8.4	7.4	4.1