Third Axiom War

The Third Axiom War was a ten month-long conflict from May to August 1984 between the Federation of South Axiom and the People's Republic of Axiom. It was the last full-scale conflict to occur between major powers, and the second conflict in world history where nuclear weapons were used in anger.

The war began with a surprise offensive against the South Axiomian border provinces of Wralod, Istalar, North Skale, Sovyl and Balagur by the People's Army of Axiom. South Axiom ordered a general mobilization of all available reserves, and an emergency meeting of NATO leaders and commanders invoked Article 5 of the NATO treaty against the People's Republic of Axiom. Despite mainly being a conflict between South Axiom and the PRX, the Third Axiom war also saw extensive direct and indirect support for both countries from NATO and Warsaw Pact nations.

After months of heavy conventional warfare, including the Fall of Kesra, the Battle of Solkar Ridge, the Liberation of Ralis and the Fondor Landings, the PRX forces were pushed back to Lazar, Draxis, South Marat and Qaldur. The air, naval and technological superiority enjoyed by South Axiom and its NATO allies proved vital in turning the tide. The Battle of Kasgar Plains in August 1984 resulted in the encirclement and destruction of an entire PRX armored corps, and was the final large battle of the war, However, the PRX resorted to tactical nuclear weapons to stop the advancing RXA and RXMC divisions, leading to a limited South Axiomian nuclear strike against PRX military installations.

The Third Axiom War would become one of the largest conflicts in history, with over 3.3 million NATO and 8.4 million Warsaw Pact troops participating in the conflict. 405,000 NATO personnel were killed or missing in action over the three-month conflict, along with 1,356,000 Warsaw Pact personnel. Over 4.6 million civilians also died during the war. The use of conventional, chemical and nuclear weapons devastated significant portions of the Axiom subcontinent and pushed the PRX into a three-year civil war. By the time the Republic of North Axiom acknowledged the independence of the Republic of Pragil in July 1992, 3,820,000 more soldiers and civilians had died due to civil war, social collapse and resource shortages.

Third Axiom War
Part of Cold War
Advancing South Axiom TX-1 Sabre-cat Tank near Ralis, Istalar
Date May 17, 1984 to August 29, 1984 Location Axiom subcontinent, North Atlantic Result Decisive South Axiom (NATO) Victory
Belligerents
South Axiom Multi-national Force United States United Kingdom Canada France Turkey Australia South Korea New Zealand Greece Belgium Netherlands Philippines Support West Germany Japan Italy Denmark Israel Norway Sweden Taiwan Spain Luxembourg Mexico	People's Republic of Axiom Soviet Union Other Warsaw Pact
Strength
South Axiom 970,000 active troops 1,790,000 reserve troops 10,200 tanks 12,700 armored carriers 3,400 artillery units 1,900 combat aircraft 260 warships Multi-national Force United States 485,000 troops 1,400 tanks 2,500 armored carriers 1,000 artillery units 1,400 combat aircraft 190 warships United Kingdom 20,500 troops 100 tanks 200 armored carriers 60 artillery units 150 combat aircraft 50 warships Canada 9,500 troops 50 tanks 90 armored carriers 30 artillery units 50 combat aircraft 10 warships	People's Republic of Axiom 2,290,000 active troops 6,070,000 reserve troops 23,300 tanks 40,200 armored carriers 21,700 artillery units 2,600 combat aircraft 320 warships Warsaw Pact Soviet Union 52,000 troops 700 combat aircraft 50 warships Other Warsaw Pact 23,000 troops 300 combat aircraft
Casualties and losses
South Axiom 338,597 KIA/MIA 929,365 civilian dead 1,959,453 wounded 22,504 POW Multi-national Force United States 49,387 KIA/MIA 129,605 wounded 3,407 POW United Kingdom 1,976 KIA/MIA 5,628 wounded 218 POW Canada 749 KIA/MIA 1,852 wounded 40 POW	People's Republic of Axiom 1,353,982 KIA/MIA 3,724,453 civilian dead 6,432,064 wounded 623,165 POW Warsaw Pact Soviet Union 1,505 KIA/MIA 3,186 wounded 313 POW Other Warsaw Pact 593 KIA/MIA 1,046 wounded 115 POW

Lead up to War

Since the Second Axiom War thirty years earlier, relations between the Federation of South Axiom and the People's Republic of Axiom had always remained hostile. This was exacerbated by the PRX's development of nuclear weapons in 1970, and the wider Cold War in Europe and the world. Border incidents, military exercises and airspace incursions were common during the 1960s and 1970s. Even during the detente era of the 1970s, the Axiom subcontinent still maintained heightened military readiness. Throughout these three decades an arms race between the two powers had led to the deployment of countless new weapons systems, from tanks and artillery to aircraft and warships.

The start of the 1980s saw the end of detente between the United States and the Soviet Union. The elections of conservatives such as Reagan in the US and Thatcher in the UK signaled a return to the East-West rivalry. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Intermediate Nuclear Forces issue were just two of a growing list of clashes between the capitalist and communist camps. The Able Archer crisis, the shooting down of KAL 007 and the Soviet nuclear false alarm of 1983 all placed the two sides dangerously close to conflict.

The People's Republic of Axiom had concerns that its numerical superiority in air and land forces was being steadily neutralized by the technological, economic and naval edge of the Federation of South Axiom. In particular the road-mobile, 1,840 km range MXM-3 Viking MRBM, deployed in 1982, had the potential to carry out a highly accurate first strike on PRX nuclear and strategic assets.

From February 1984 the PRX Security Bureau (the XSB) started to closely monitor South Axiom forces and government agencies, looking for signs of an impending attack. In early May 1984, South Axiom conducted a civil evacuation drill, closely followed by a military readiness drill. The increased activity on official South Axiom channels and around military bases convinced the PRX leadership that a strike was imminent, and more than 1.7 million PRX troops were secretly readied for a preemptive assault.

MXM-3 Viking TELs in November 1983

The PRX Invasion

At 4:30 AM on May 17, 1984, the PRX Air Force launched a massive conventional air and missile strike on South Axiomian air bases. Meanwhile more than 20,000 paratroopers and special forces troops landed behind RXA lines, aiming to capture important transport links and military positions. They opened up paths for the main armored and mechanized divisions, with heavy concentrations of firepower driving back the RXA forces.

At sea, PRX nuclear and conventional attack submarines attacked RXN ships, sinking a destroyer, two frigates, several corvettes and numerous civilian cargo ships. PRX Naval Aviation bombers attacked the RXMS Golas carrier battle group with supersonic anti-ship missiles, damaging two escorts and the Golas. However, RXN air defenses and carrier air patrols managed to shoot down 8 out of the 14 attacking bombers. The PRX submarine forces also lost two diesel submarines against RXN ASW screens.

In the air and land battles, PRX divisions and air wings used the element of surprise to encircle RXA troops and destroy dozens of aircraft on the ground. In two weeks PRX armored spearheads penetrated up to 200 km into South Axiomian territory, but many RXA units and civilians manage to escape to friendly lines.

South Axiom and NATO Response

On the evening of May 17, the South Axiomian Parliament met in a hardened bunker at RXAF Jurat to formally declare war on the People's Republic of Axiom. Most members were meeting via secure military communication links as they had been dispersed to various facilities nationwide. Prime minister William Taylor then addressed the nation, followed by His Majesty Richard III the next day.

During the confusion of the early battles, South Axiomian forces retreated and regrouped while trying to evacuate civilians from front-line areas. The reserve forces were mobilized and civil defense plans were implemented. The South Axiomian Ministry of Defense considered using tactical nuclear weapons to stop the advance but decided to wait for signs of a PRX WMD strike.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation quickly responded to the invasion, with Article 5 being invoked on May 20. A coalition of Western nations led by the United States and United Kingdom pledged military and non-military assistance to the Royal Axiomian Armed Forces. Given the proximity of the Axiom subcontinent to NATO's Western European and North Atlantic flank, NATO commanders were worried that the war could spread and escalate into a general conflict with the Warsaw Pact across much of Europe. Thus, the deployment of the Multi-national Force to South Axiom was accompanied by diplomatic efforts to keep Soviet involvement to a minimum.

The Soviet Politburo and military commanders had also been surprised by the invasion. While they had received some advance notice of the plans, this had not been enough to properly coordinate a response to the rapidly widening conflict. In official statements the Soviet government announced aid and assistance to its allies in Kralas, but also sought to delay the West through diplomacy until Warsaw Pact military forces could be properly deployed and readied.

The rapid PRX advance meant that substantial parts of Istalar, North Skale, Sovyl and Balagur were in PRX hands by the end of May. Despite heavy fighting in and around Kesra, most of the RXA I Corps had to retreat from the city. However, the 3rd Infantry Division and several reserve brigades were encircled by the PRX 19th and 24th Armies by May 29th. The 20,000 troops in the Kesra pocket fought bravely for almost three weeks, but the remaining 8,000 were forced to surrender on June 17th. The Battle of Kesra delayed the PRX advance in the central sector, and bought the RXA Second Army critical time to stabilize the front.

Initial NATO ground deployments to South Axiomian territory included three US Army Divisions and a marine expeditionary brigade along with two Commonwealth brigades from the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. More forces would pour in over the next three months, from both NATO and non-NATO allies. However, the US and Commonwealth provided the most assistance because most NATO ground forces were deployed in Germany to counter a rapidly mobilizing Warsaw Pact. While initial NATO deployments were small in size, they helped man the line against PRX forces and replace recuperating RXA formations.

Stalemate

As the PRX offensive continued, it ran into severe supply issues. The front was now hundreds of kilometers away from PRX supply areas, and logistical columns were often attacked by NATO aircraft or South Axiomian stay-behind irregular warfare units. Their repeated and failed offensives to capture Bryat and Vadyar showed how superior NATO technology and training could overcome PRX numerical superiority.

Newly deployed NATO tanks such as the TX-2 Lion, M1 Abrams and Challenger 2 showed a clear superiority against the PRX T-62 and T-72 tanks, while the advanced F-15, F-16, F-24 and Tornado gradually regained control of South Axiomian airspace from PRXAF MiG-21, MiG-23 and MiG-25 fighters.

July Counteroffensives

The month of July proved to be when South Axiomian and NATO forces turned stalemate into victory.

In the eastern sector, IV Mechanized Corps (South Axiom) penetrated behind enemy positions near Vadyar in Operation Hammerhead, starting on July 6th. With their supply corridor under threat, the PRX armies were forces to withdraw to aviod encirclement. To the west, the NATO troops defending Bryat were relieved by fresh US and Canadian forces deployed from North America in early July.

However, the relief of Vadyar and Bryat was soon overshadowed by events further west, in the islands of Fondor and Vlasil. This region had formed their own independent republics in the Early Modern Era and after WWI, before being absorbed into the PRX. As civilian living standards fell and casualties mounted, some local reserve units began to mutiny against the Politburo and Axiomian Communist Party. Spurred on by NATO agents and covert support, the uprising gained strength throughout the first weeks of July.

The rebel forces stormed Soltar on the 11th of July, despite taking losses from loyalist internal security troops. By then, the remaining PRX island garrisons were being diverted from coastal defense to counter-insurgency duties. This proved to be a fatal error when, on July 16th and 17th, US and South Axiomian forces conducted simultaneous amphibious and airborne landings on the western coasts of Fondor and Vlasil. Caught between two hostile forces, the loyal PRX forces were overrun before the end of the month.

The Vlasil/Fondor Uprising and Western Islands Campaign also crippled the PRX war effort in general, as troops from the Western Island regions began to lose discipline or turn on their Maratan officers. NATO air and ground forces poured through gaps in PRX lines, reaching Halosi, Ralis, Kesra and Irkat by the last week of July. As Morel also rose up against the Politburo, the western PRX defenses quickly disintegrated.

The PRX Supreme Command hurriedly raised new troops to combat both NATO advances and internal rebellions. Due to the lesser internal uprisings to the east, advances in the Balagur-Qaldur area was relatively slow. Urban combat in Halosi, Ralis, Kesra and Irkat was also fierce due to the entrenched PRX forces and maze of buildings.

Nuclear Exchange

The Battle of Kasgar Plains had seen most of the elite PRX 5th Guards and 8th Tank Armies encircled and destroyed by the RXA 1st and 4th Armies and US VII Corps. This left the PRX defenses in front of Qalduril gravely weakened. In the west, the RXA 2nd Army had reached and encircled Baslan. With most elite Category A divisions destroyed or heavily degraded, the PRX high command had no good units to hold back the NATO onslaught. The RXMC and USMC had overrun most of Fondor, and both the air and seas were dominated by the superior NATO forces.

On August 26, the ballistic missile submarine Uztea (the only deployed North Axiomian SSBN) was sunk by two RXN and USN nuclear attack submarines along with its escort. This loss of underwater nuclear capability was the event that pushed the PRX over the nuclear threshold. With the conventional war now heavily favoring NATO forces, and their remaining nuclear arsenal vulnerable to a NATO first strike, the Politburo authorized nuclear and chemical bombardment of the three 'rebellious provinces'. At 6 PM on the 26th, 3 MRBMs with 500 kt nuclear warheads were launched at the three regional capitals of Morel, Fondor and Vlasil. This nuclear strike caused over 150,000 deaths, while tens of thousands died in other chemical attacks.

After the strikes the Politburo sent an ultimatum to South Axiom, to accept a return to status quo ante bellum or risk strategic nuclear conflict. In response, NATO leaders condemned the deliberate attacks on civilian targets, and evacuation/civil defense efforts were accelerated. South Axiom, the United States, Britain and France placed their nuclear forces on high alert, and increased efforts to neutralize the PRX nuclear arsenal. The Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact remained silent on the attacks, but unofficial agreements were being made with NATO leaders to avoid escalating the war into a European or global nuclear exchange.

After presenting the ultimatum, the PRX Politburo restarted diplomatic peace efforts while secretly preparing a nuclear first strike in case their demands were rejected. The strike was planned for 2300 hours (11 PM) on August 27. It would begin with salvos of nuclear artillery shells and missiles on NATO troops and include counter-force strikes on various South Axiomian nuclear facilities.

The South Axiomian Intelligence Agency (SAIA) obtained detected signs of an impending nuclear strike at 8:05 PM on the 27th by analyzing signals intelligence. Signals traffic between enemy command and control networks were similar to those intercepted just before the strike on Morel, Fondor and Vlasil. Prime Minister Taylor immediately ordered a preemptive nuclear strike, to cripple PRX tactical and strategic nuclear forces. NATO nuclear powers and other allies were informed through secure channels by 8:20 PM, but only South Axiomian nuclear forces were deployed to avoid a Soviet counter-strike. The Soviet premier was also discreetly informed minutes before the attack.

The strategic strike began at 8:35 PM, when two Strident-class ballistic missile submarines stealthily approached the PRX western and eastern coastlines and launched 18 UXM-8 Raptor missiles at airfields and naval bases. Two of the Raptors had been specially modified, and rose up into the air for high-altitude 40 kt airbursts. The resulting electromagnetic pulse temporarily blinded PRX radar facilities. Around the same time 26 RXAF B-35 Broadsword bombers (around a quarter of the total force) took off from their air bases to launch their cruise missiles at other strategic targets. Finally, 159 MXM-3 Viking medium-range ballistic missiles were raised up on their road-mobile launchers and aimed at hardened PRX missile silos and command bunkers.

Tactical weapons were deployed at a similar time, with MGM-43 Saber and MGM-52 Lance missiles targeted at PRX SCUD and FROG launchers. Hundreds of RXAF (and some NATO) aircraft were deployed on 'SCUD sweeps' armed with low-yield B61 bombs. Remaining PRX infantry, mechanized and artillery forces were subjected to intense conventional attack, with nuclear weapons mostly reserved for enemy tactical nuclear weapons and hardened bunkers. At sea carrier aircraft, surface ships and submarines launched cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles and depth charges at PRX Navy ships and coastal targets. Throughout the nuclear assault, conventional forces also diverted attention and destroyed enemy military assets (while maintaining dispersion and NBC protection).

The South Axiomian first strike caught the PRX almost completely by surprise, during preparations for their own attacks. The EMP airbursts were devastating, with already-damaged communications and early warning programs paralyzed. Some units, acting on their own initiative, decided to launch every available bomber and missile they had before they were destroyed by the incoming nuclear attack. With PRX missile defenses highly degraded and failing to intercept most nuclear strikes, 104 submarine-launched warheads (50~100 kt), 127 air-launched cruise missiles (5~150 kt), 181 ground-launched medium-range warheads (10~120 kt) and 385 tactical warheads (5~340 kt) detonated over the People's Republic of Axiom. They destroyed or incapacitated 67 strategic and medium bombers, 129 ground-based strategic missiles, several missile defense batteries and the main PRX Politburo bunker (destroyed with specially modified 400 kt warheads). Hundreds of tactical aircraft, ground vehicles and ships were also destroyed by the nuclear and conventional assault, with entire divisions and military bases rendered combat ineffective. However, in a deliberate targeting decision, no major civilian residential area or city was hit by South Axiomian nuclear weapons, and most warheads used were low-yield. This proved crucial in preventing Soviet nuclear retaliation and international condemnation.

Despite being crippled by the South Axiomian first strike, and having lost their only operational ballistic missile submarine, the PRX forces still launched 15 medium-range missiles, 44 tactical missiles and the remaining 11 bombers. While most were aimed at nuclear delivery systems, NATO units and military bases, some targeted major cities in a desperate counter-value strike. AXM-6 Iron Bolt nuclear-tipped anti-ballistic missiles and Nike-X (Sprint) batteries, already on high alert, immediately engaged the missiles and shot 7 medium-range missiles down. Patriot PAC-1 batteries and Aegis-equipped USN cruisers engaged the tactical missiles and destroyed 12. The Tu-16 and Tu-22 bombers were all shot down by NATO fighters and SAM batteries, but 17 air-launched cruise missiles were still launched.

After all interceptions and malfunctions were accounted for, 24 warheads successfully detonated on NATO targets. One medium-range missile (with a 500 kt warhead) detonated over RXAF Vandir (a B-35 base) near Coltis, while another detonated near Balagur City within Balor Bay. A tactical Kh-26 anti-ship missile detonated its 350 kt warhead over a USN surface battle group, damaging the battleship USS New Jersey and sinking a Perry-class frigate. Another, aimed at the Golas-class carrier HXMS Matapan, manages to sink a Resolution-class frigate and severely damage (but not sink) the Matapan. 15 20 kt tactical nuclear warheads landed on NATO ground units, which only escaped more severe casualties through dispersal and vehicular NBC protection. Three 300 kt cruise missiles landed on NATO command bunkers, while two others detonated over air bases near Ralis and Bryat. The last one detonated near Golkar Naval Base in Rolagil.

While casualty estimates vary between sources, most studies state that at least 450,000 military deaths, 2,250,000 immediate civilian deaths and 800,000 further radiation deaths occurred on the day of the nuclear exchange. The vast majority of deaths were North Axiomian, due to the higher number of hits and the lack of effective civil defense, but at least 160,000 were from South Axiom or NATO. The death toll would have been much worse if the exchange had occurred before widespread civilian evacuation, or if it had occurred in more densely populated West German areas. The NATO death toll was also relatively low, as the PRX nuclear forces could not launch an effective second strike. However, the exchange still caused almost half of all casualties during the war.

PRX Surrender

When the last nuclear blasts subsided, the People's Republic of Axiom had ceased to exist as a cohesive nation and armed force. The Politburo and senior military commanders were dead or missing, and the EMP burst had crippled most communications systems. The strategic nuclear forces had been eliminated, and the army, air force and navy were all reporting catastrophic losses. Remaining PRX military and party leaders called for a ceasefire with NATO on the 28rd, and this was implemented by the 29th. The three-month war was now over, ending in a overwhelming NATO victory.

The formal surrender of PRX military forces was carried out by Lieutenant General Ivan Petrovsky, temporary commander of the 2nd Marat Front. He was accompanied by Semyon Leonov, the most senior survivor of the PRX Politburo. The ceremony was held at RXA 1st Army Headquarters in Vadyar, Balagur at 1500 hours August 29th 1984.

The surrender terms included a cessation of hostilities and prisoner exchange. NATO forces agreed to an orderly withdrawal across the border by the end of November. As the nuclear strikes had crippled the People's Republic of Axiom, reparations could not be collected. Soviet pressure led to the preservation of most of the status quo ante bellum, as nobody wished to fight a wider, strategic nuclear conflict. However, the Republics of Morel, Fondor and Vlasil had their independence from the PRX recognized, provided that no South Axiomian or NATO military forces were based in the three republics until 2000. PRX forces were also prohibited from entering within 20 km of the PRX-South Axiom border.

The remainder of the PRX nuclear arsenal was non-functional, with a few missiles having malfunctioned due to faulty electronics. The survival of these missiles were unknown to NATO, and they would provide the means to rebuild the North Axiomian nuclear stockpile. Until then, the PRX would fall under a Soviet nuclear umbrella. This would limit overt NATO involvement in the PRX Civil War.

A reason for the quick PRX surrender was the growing anti-communist and anti-Marat resistance movements springing up across the People's Republic of Axiom. The few rear-area military units left either mutinied or were overwhelmed by the more numerous resistance forces. A ceasefire allowed PRX forces to march north and try to restore Communist rule.

Aftermath

Most prisoners (on both sides) were released by the end of 1984, and war dead were retrieved whenever possible. NATO and Warsaw Pact troops demobilized or returned to their previous postings. However, the two Axioms still remained in a heightened state of alert.

The PRX disintegrated into various independent republics, with forces loyal to the PRX regime desperately trying to keep control over a restless populace. Even extensive Soviet and Warsaw Pact aid was barely adequate to keep the PRX remnants functional, and the cost of sending this aid is often cited as a cause of the Soviet collapse in 1989~91.

The PRX regime eventually morphed into a military dictatorship, the Republic of North Axiom. The armed independence movements in Pragil were ultimately successful, with North Axiomian troops withdrawing from Pragil by July 1992. Heavy urban and guerrilla warfare took a severe toll on hastily assembled North Axiomian conscripts and mechanized units, and North Axiomian power was permanently reduced by years of ruinous war.

The rebels managed to hold on for eight years against North Axiomian forces due to several factors. They overrun local arms caches and military bases to arm themselves. They were mostly supported by the local populace, and Western intelligence agencies provided additional assistance. However, despite inflicting severe losses on North Axiomian forces, the rebels suffered from North Axiomian air superiority and chemical weapons, which often targeted both rebels and civilians indiscriminately. Only after Soviet and Warsaw Pact support for North Axiom stopped after the Soviet Collapse did the rebel forces finally achieve independence.

The Federation of South Axiom retained a vigilant defensive posture, often intercepting incursions by North Axiomian ships and aircraft. RXN and RXAF sailors and pilots were authorized to use deadly force after a radio warning and warning shot. The South Axiomian government was also busy rebuilding damaged cities, infrastructure and military facilities, with aid from other Western nations. Millions of refugees poured into South Axiom from the north, and were accommodated either in South Axiom or continental Europe. Recently declassified files also indicate that various SAIA, CIA and SIS covert operations helped tie down North Axiomian forces in Pragil during the PRX Civil War, and contributed to the rebel victory.

The three independent former-PRX republics in the west were also busy rebuilding their homes and guarding against PRX invasion. Due to overwhelming NATO military superiority no successful attempts were made to retake the 'lost provinces'. Each republic would soon enter an alliance with South Axiom, and joined NATO in 2004. Nearly 23,000 South Axiomian military personnel are now stationed in the independent Axiom republics. The Republic of Pragil, while more ambivalent towards the West, has also joined NATO in 2009 to protect itself against the Federal Republic of North Axiom.