2030 StrayaRoos Federal Election: Difference between revisions
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| majority_seats = 181 | | majority_seats = 181 | ||
| opinion_polls = | | opinion_polls = | ||
| registered = | | registered = 43,715,932 | ||
| turnout = | | turnout = 93.30% | ||
| votes_counted = <!-- Use ONE out of votes_counted, reporting or declared, do not include percentage (%) sign--> | | votes_counted = <!-- Use ONE out of votes_counted, reporting or declared, do not include percentage (%) sign--> | ||
| reporting = <!-- Use ONE out of votes_counted, reporting or declared, do not include percentage (%) sign--> | | reporting = <!-- Use ONE out of votes_counted, reporting or declared, do not include percentage (%) sign--> | ||
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<!-- any --> | <!-- any --> | ||
| popular_vote1 = | | popular_vote1 = 16,470,768 | ||
| percentage1 = 40.48% | | percentage1 = 40.48% | ||
| swing1 = {{decrease}} 0.81 | | swing1 = {{decrease}} 0.81 | ||
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<!-- any --> | <!-- any --> | ||
| popular_vote2 = | | popular_vote2 = 13,449,436 | ||
| percentage2 = 33.05% | | percentage2 = 33.05% | ||
| swing2 = {{increase}} 0.73 | | swing2 = {{increase}} 0.73 | ||
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<!-- any --> | <!-- any --> | ||
| popular_vote3 = | | popular_vote3 = 3,412,138 | ||
| percentage3 = 8.37% | | percentage3 = 8.37% | ||
| swing3 = {{decrease}} 0.75 | | swing3 = {{decrease}} 0.75 | ||
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<!-- any --> | <!-- any --> | ||
| popular_vote4 = | | popular_vote4 = 2,303,759 | ||
| percentage4 = 5.65% | | percentage4 = 5.65% | ||
| swing4 = {{increase}} 2.65 | | swing4 = {{increase}} 2.65 | ||
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<!-- any --> | <!-- any --> | ||
| popular_vote5 = | | popular_vote5 = 1,101,801 | ||
| percentage5 = 5.89% | | percentage5 = 5.89% | ||
| swing5 = {{increase}} 1.29 | | swing5 = {{increase}} 1.29 | ||
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<!-- any --> | <!-- any --> | ||
| popular_vote6 = | | popular_vote6 = 816,056 | ||
| percentage6 = 2.00% | | percentage6 = 2.00% | ||
| swing6 = {{decrease}} 1.10 | | swing6 = {{decrease}} 1.10 | ||
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| May 30 2030 | | May 30 2030 | ||
| rtvS-RVPG || Online || 5000 || 32.8% || 31.7% || 8.7% || 7.3% || 5.1% || 2.2% || 3.7% || 1.8% || 0.7% || 1.1% || 4.9% | | rtvS-RVPG || Online || 5000 || 32.8% || 31.7% || 8.7% || 7.3% || 5.1% || 2.2% || 3.7% || 1.8% || 0.7% || 1.1% || 4.9% | ||
|- | |||
| May 28 2030 | |||
| 8News - Six News - 4News || Mixed || 5000 || 34.1% || 30.8% || 8.5% || 7.1% || 5.4% || 3.1% || 2.9% || 2.2% || 0.7% || 1.9% || 3.3% | |||
|} | |} | ||
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! class=unsortable style="background:#b7b7b7" | OTH | ! class=unsortable style="background:#b7b7b7" | OTH | ||
! class=unsortable | Total | ! class=unsortable | Total | ||
|- | |- style=background:#b0e9db | ||
| '''2030 Election Result'''<br/>June 8 2030 | | '''2030 Election Result'''<br/>June 8 2030 | ||
| 151 | | 151 | ||
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| 11 | | 11 | ||
| 361 | | 361 | ||
|style="background:#f04242"| '''Labor-Greens-Democrats- | |style="background:#f04242"| '''Labor-Greens-Democrats-Indigenous (191)''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| '''Eight-Four-Six'''<br/>June 3 2030 | | '''Eight-Four-Six'''<br/>June 3 2030 | ||
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| 362 | | 362 | ||
|style="background:#f04242"| '''Labor-Greens-Democrats-Indigenous (193)''' | |style="background:#f04242"| '''Labor-Greens-Democrats-Indigenous (193)''' | ||
|- | |||
| '''Eight-Four-Six'''<br/>May 28 2030 | |||
| 123 | |||
| 111 | |||
| 31 | |||
| 26 | |||
| 20 | |||
| 11 | |||
| 10 | |||
| 8 | |||
| 3 | |||
| 7 | |||
| 11 | |||
| 361 | |||
|style="background:#f04242"| '''Labor-Greens-Democrats-Indigenous (190)''' | |||
|} | |} | ||
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|style="width:1px; background-color:#f04242;" | | |style="width:1px; background-color:#f04242;" | | ||
|colspan=2 align="left" | [[Labor Party of StrayaRoos|Labor]] | |colspan=2 align="left" | [[Labor Party of StrayaRoos|Labor]] | ||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| 22 | |||
| {{decrease}} 8 | |||
|- | |||
|style="width:1px; background-color:#46bdc6;" | | |||
|colspan=2 align="left" | [[National-Conservative Coalition (StrayaRoos)|NatCon]] | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| 17 | |||
| {{increase}} 9 | |||
|- | |||
|rowspan=2 style="width:1px; background-color:#cccccc;" | | |||
|style="width:1px; background-color:#25dbe7;" | | |||
|align="left" | [[Roosian Conservative Party|Conservative]] | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| 12 | |||
| {{increase}} 8 | |||
|- | |||
|style="width:1px; background-color:#93c47d;" | | |||
|align="left" | [[National Party of StrayaRoos|National]] | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| 5 | |||
| {{increase}} 1 | |||
|- | |||
|style="width:1px; background-color:#38761d;" | | |||
|colspan=2 align="left" | [[Roosian Green Party|Greens]] | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| 4 | |||
| {{decrease}} 2 | |||
|- | |||
|style="width:1px; background-color:#b4a7d6;" | | |||
|colspan=2 align="left" | [[Roosian Democrats|Democrats]] | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| 6 | |||
| {{increase}} 3 | |||
|} | |} | ||
====Eastern StrayaRoos==== | ====Eastern StrayaRoos==== | ||
====Central StrayaRoos==== | ====Central StrayaRoos==== |
Latest revision as of 23:12, 20 November 2024
The 2030 StrayaRoos Federal Election was held on Saturday June 8 2030 to elect members of the 35th Parliament of StrayaRoos. The election took place in tandem with the presidential election. The incumbent Labor Party of StrayaRoos, alongside alliance partners in the Roosian Green Party and Roosian Democrats, defeated the opposition NatCon Coalition, winning a second consecutive term in office. Up for election were all 361 seats in the House of Representatives, and 36 of 71 seats in the Senate.
The Labor Party won a plurality of the seats in the House of Representatives, and alongside Liberty Alliance partners in the Democrats and Greens won a majority. Hamish Ouau was sworn in for his second term as Prime Minister on June 10, 2030. Greens leader Isabelle Briloani and Democrats leader Jack Ropa were sworn in as his deputies the same day.
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all 361 seats in the House of Representatives 36 of 71 seats in the Senate 181 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Registered | 43,715,932 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Turnout | 93.30% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Electoral System
Members of the House of Representatives are elected by a hybrid of single-member electorate seats are elected using Instant Runoff Voting, making up half of the seats in the House of Representatives, where the candidate with the least first preferences is eliminated until one candidate has 50.01% of the votes cast in an electorate, and A closed-list Proportional Representation party vote, using the voter’s highest usable preference (i.e. highest-ranked party that has registered a party list with the NEC for that election), being added to the national tally. Then, all party votes will be combined to get a national party vote (NPV).
All Parties with more than 2% of the NPV, or a party that has won at least one electorate seat, will have their vote counts transferred to the List seat allocation. The parties percentage of the national usable votes tally (i.e. Party votes cast for eligible parties) will be multiplied by the number of seats in parliament (currently 361), minus the count of seats won by independent candidates. The resulting number will be the entitlement of a party for that election. The list seats make up half+1 of seats in Parliament, and will be allocated to each party to ensure as many parties as possible reach their entitlement, ensuring proportionality.
Senators are elected by Hare-Clarke preferential voting using 9 multi-member districts. 8 of 8 members, and 1 of 7 members. 4 seats in each district were up for election.
Campaign Issues
Candidates
The deadline for candidates to be nominated to the National Electoral Comission, for either electorates or party lists, was May 24, 2030. In total, 17 parties submitted party lists, each with at least 100 nominees, totalling 2664 list candidates. Meanwhile, the aforementioned 17 parties, and various minor parties or unaffiliated candidates, submitted over 3000 candidates for the 180 electorate seats
Party | Leader(s) | Founded | Ideology | Seats before election | Candidates | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Electorate | List | ||||||
Labor | Hamish Ouau | Social Democracy Progressivism | |||||
Conservative | Shane Lorti | Conservatism | |||||
National | Agrarianism Social Conservatism | ||||||
Greens | Green Politics Progressivism | ||||||
Democrats | Social Liberalism Populism | ||||||
USP | Nationalism Right-wing Populism | ||||||
GRA | Social Conservatism Anti-Gun Control | ||||||
Indigenous/Meyrani’ora | Social Liberalism Indigenous Rights | ||||||
Progressives | Progressivism | ||||||
StrayaRoos First | Right-wing Populism Isolationism | ||||||
Libertarian | Libertatrianism | ||||||
Socialist Party | Socialism | ||||||
RCT | Agrarianism Social Liberalism | ||||||
Hope Alliance | Christian Centrism | ||||||
Christian United | Christian Right | ||||||
Legalise Cannabis | Cannabis Legalisation |
Debates
Date | Time (ERST) | Host | Location | Topic/Type | Participants | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Labor | NatCon | Greens | Democrats | USP/GRA/SF | Meyrani’ora | Progressives | |||||||
May 7 2030 | 5:30pm | rtvS | rtvS House | Minor Parties Debate | A | A | P Isabelle Briloani |
P Jack Ropa |
P Ryan Nablo |
P Sam Tong |
P Nathan Utrepo | ||
May 7 2030 | 7:30pm | rtvS | rtvS House, Pale | Major Parties Debate | P Hamish Ouau |
P Shane Lorti |
A | A | A | A | A | ||
May 11 2030 | 8:00pm | Four News | Circunses Forum | Treasurers' Debate | P Rachel Kjalo |
P Edward Tewa |
A | A | A | A | A | ||
May 21 2030 | 7:40pm | 8news | Ulladulla Centre | Leader's Debate | P Hamish Ouau |
P Shane Lorti |
P Isabelle Briloani |
A | P Ryan Nablo |
A | A | ||
June 5 2030 | 7:40pm | SIX News | Ulladulla Centre | Leader's Debate | P Hamish Ouau |
P Shane Lorti |
P Isabelle Briloani |
P Jack Ropa |
P Ryan Nablo |
A | A |
Opinion Polling
Primary Vote
Date | Brand | Interview mode | Sample size |
Primary vote | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LAB | NTC | GRN | DEM | USP | GRA | MRO | PRG | SOC | LIB | OTH | ||||
June 8 2030 | Election | 40.38% | 32.97% | 8.37% | 5.65% | 2.70% | 2.25% | 2.00% | 0.64% | 0.73% | 0.63% | 3.69% | ||
June 5 2030 | rtvS-RVPG | Online | 5000 | 33.5% | 30.7% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 5% |
June 3 2030 | 8News - Six News - 4News | Phone | 2500 | 31.2% | 31.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 4.8% |
May 30 2030 | rtvS-RVPG | Online | 5000 | 32.8% | 31.7% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 4.9% |
May 28 2030 | 8News - Six News - 4News | Mixed | 5000 | 34.1% | 30.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 3.3% |
Seat Projections
Source | Seats in Parliament | Govt. Formation | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LAB | NTC | GRN | DEM | USP | GRA | MRO | PRG | SOC | LIB | OTH | Total | ||
2030 Election Result June 8 2030 |
151 | 123 | 31 | 21 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 361 | Labor-Greens-Democrats (202) |
rtvS-RVPG June 5 2030 |
123 | 113 | 32 | 23 | 18 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 361 | Labor-Greens-Democrats-Indigenous (191) |
Eight-Four-Six June 3 2030 |
114 | 114 | 32 | 28 | 19 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 361 | Labor-Greens-Democrats-Indigenous (185) |
rtvS-RVPG May 30 2030 |
121 | 117 | 32 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 3* | 4 | 11 | 362 | Labor-Greens-Democrats-Indigenous (193) |
Eight-Four-Six May 28 2030 |
123 | 111 | 31 | 26 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 361 | Labor-Greens-Democrats-Indigenous (190) |
Results
House of Representatives
Party | Electorate vote | Party vote | Seats | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seats | Change | Votes | % | Swing (pp) | Seats | Change | Seats | Change | |||
Labor | 65 | 22 | 16,470,768 | 40.38% | 0.81 | 86 | 22 | 151 | |||
NatCon | 65 | 23 | 13,449,436 | 32.97% | 0.64 | 58 | 19 | 123 | 4 | ||
Conservative | 49 | 19 | 11,682,889 | 28.64% | 1.71 | 58 | 11 | 107 | 8 | ||
National | 16 | 4 | 1,766,547 | 4.33% | 1.07 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 4 | ||
Greens | 17 | 1 | 3,412,138 | 8.37% | 0.75 | 14 | 1 | 31 | 2 | ||
Democrats | 13 | 8 | 2,303,759 | 5.65% | 2.65 | 8 | 2 | 21 | 10 | ||
USP | 4 | 2 | 1,101,801 | 2.70% | 0.59 | 6 | 10 | 2 | |||
GRA | 1 | 1 | 915,815 | 2.25% | 0.61 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | ||
Indigenous/Meyrani’ora | 6 | 3 | 816,056 | 2.00% | 1.10 | 2 | 8 | 3 | |||
Legalise Cannabis | 0 | New | 562,597 | 1.38% | New | 0 | New | 0 | New | ||
StrayaRoos First | 0 | 385,689 | 0.95% | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | |||||
Reform | 0 | 308,492 | 0.76% | 0.14 | 0 | 0 | |||||
Socialist Party | 0 | 3 | 297,532 | 0.73% | 1.77 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9 | ||
Progressives | 0 | 1 | 262,152 | 0.64% | 0.64 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | ||
Libertarian | 0 | 2 | 255,199 | 0.63% | 0.28 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | ||
RCT | 0 | 123,531 | 0.30% | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | |||||
Hope Alliance | 0 | 104,843 | 0.25% | 0.26 | 0 | 0 | |||||
Christian United | 0 | 18,493 | 0.05% | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | |||||
Independents | 9 | 2 | N/A | 9 | 2 | ||||||
Total | 180 | 40,788,301 | 100.00% | 181 | 361 |
Cove
Party | Primary vote | Seats | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Swing (pp) | Seats | Change | |||||||
Labor | 22 | 8 | |||||||||
NatCon | 17 | 9 | |||||||||
Conservative | 12 | 8 | |||||||||
National | 5 | 1 | |||||||||
Greens | 4 | 2 | |||||||||
Democrats | 6 | 3 |