The Deluge

infobox

The Deluge, also known as the Lost Decade, was a time period beginning around the late 1980s characterized by the substantial increase in the frequency of interconnected armed conflicts, state failures, political instability, supply shocks, stagflation and a reduction in international trade worldwide induced by a breakdown in global supply chains. The period succeeded the 1970s oil crisis and the Postbellum period before that and presented the most profound challenge to the postwar global order, established by the Teleon system and subsequent institutions like the United Congress; many of whom were disbanded or rendered defunct. Historians debate on the formal start date, but the 198X [INSERT WAR] traditionally use to mark the start of the period with the signing of the 2000 Millennium Peace in XXX formally ceasing hostilities between the global major powers and re-establishing intergovernmental institutions such as the UC. The Deluge is traditionally seen as the high point of the 20th-century War of Position and the closest the world has ever been to nuclear war.

The causes of period are multifaceted, but scholars generally attribute it to declining terms of trade in the Northern World brought by the higher commodity prices set by global resource clubs, further exacerbated emergence of new export regions in Hylasia and Abaria and the increasing militancy of major socialist powers such as Adanal and Equatoria. The Second Adanali Revolution and the fracturing of the international communist movement created widespread political instability, resulting in coups and civil wars in X states. In Calesia and Elia Borealis, fears of stagnation and domestic communist infiltration became pervasive, fuelling the rise of militant anti-communist parties which viewed the new and equally interventionist radical governments in Equatoria, Adanal, and other regions as existential threats.

The collapse of several key developing nations and the disarray within the communist bloc provided opportunities for the Nordbund, Free States and Coshaqua to intervene directly in strategic regions. These interventions included both conventional military deployment as well as arming proxy groups to affect regime change, a strategy mirrored by the communist bloc which led to more increasingly direct confrontations between the Great Powers. Despite these tensions there was a general reluctance of acknowledging formal hostilities and both blocs generally avoided open warfare on their own territories largely due to the fear of nuclear conflict. Instead, they relied on unconventional tactics, including the sponsorship of terrorist cells, economic sabotage, lawfare, espionage, psychological warfare, and misinformation to destabilize adversaries by inducing domestic political crises.

As the conflicts escalated, public morale and trust in institutions rapidly declined. The breakdown of global trade and the shift toward war economies caused substantial disruptions to industrial production and which resulted in significant shortages of consumer and essential goods, leading to widespread rationing and a substantial decline in domestic living standards. Public discontent grew, marked by rising fears of nuclear war and civil disobedience, including draft-dodging. These conditions gave rise to a global anti-war movement that gained political momentum and electoral support as the situation worsened. Key watershed moments in late 1990s such as the Six-Day War, [KENT STATE SHOOTING EXPY] and XXX galvanised opposition to further interventions and in support of the complete cessation of conflict, leading to political upheaval within the Great Powers represented by the wave of resignations and incumbent parties losing power, such as during the 1997 Equatorian snap election.

Rapprochement culminated in signing of the Millennium Peace agreement which, in the spirit of cooperation and a sign of goodwill, re-established and reformed several key international institutions, updated international laws, lifted far-reaching embargoes as well as requiring all parties to engage in partial demilitarization and denuclearization as part of a process of détente. The post-Deluge period has generally been marked by rapid global growth and rising living standards broad in large part by greater international cooperation, liberalised trade and generous direct aid given to developing countries as part of the coordinated global reconstruction effort.

[CONCLUSION HERE, I SUCK AT THOSE]

Etymology

• History behind the name
• Popularized in the late 2000s by some bestselling author because that's pretty much the running gag now

Alternative names

• Various local and region-specific names

Impact

Casualties and demographic impact

• Something like 15~30 million people dead globally
• Lots of countries have skewed gender ratios as a consequence --> impact on labour markets and gender relations in the Global South
  • Informal and low-wage work in the Global South is possibly less feminized as women fill in shortages in technical and administrative sectors (see: DDR, post-genocide Rwanda)
  • 2000s baby boom in both developing and developed countries?

Climate change and environmental impact

• Lots of environmental damage
• Would the fall in global consumption reduce emissions substantially?
  • If so climate change might not actually be worse, assuming wartime production doesn't counterbalance this

Impact on international institutions

• UC is probably somewhat more empowered and independent compared to OTL UN
• New global financial institutions
  • not!World-Bank is closer to SUNFED, the Bank of the South, etc provides developmental aid in the form of lending
  • not!Bancor plan that existed under the Teleon system turned into a global central bank which provides emergency lending to debt-stressed countries, Northbund forces the commie bloc to turn the Heron into a floated global reserve currency pegged to a currency basket.
  • Global reconstruction effort stuff
• other impacts

Advances in technology and its application

• Period saw the militarization of space (see: "Star Wars" programme, Casaba howitzers, HEMP testing) and advances in anti-satellite weapon systems causes a boom in space infrastrcuture (a la maglev and laser-aided launch sites) provides to basis of the commercialization of space in the 2000s by major private companies.
• tba, tba

Pop culture and media

• quirky cultural stuff about the war

Energy production

• Rapidly sped up civilian nuclearization and electrification efforts that started in the 70s
• By 2020s global energy production is probably substantially decarbonized, biggest polluters might actually be major industrialized states in the global south.