Operation Sŭngsin

Operation Sŭngsin (Menghean: 승신 작전/勝神作戰, Sŭngsin Jakjŏn), named for the Menghean god of victory, was a military operation which the Menghean Navy conducted at the start of the Second Pan-Septentrion War. It referred to a period of high-tempo air, surface, sub-surface, and missile operations around the Strait of Portcullia between Innominada and Khalistan, targeting military assets of the Entente Cordiale, especially aircraft parked on land.

Menghe's main objective in Operation Sŭngsin was to seriously degrade the Entente's air and sea power in the Khalistan area, thereby allowing Menghean aircraft and surface ships to operate freely in the Strait of Portcullia and thus deny the strait to EC warships. The Menghean Navy's military doctrine heavily emphasized the need to inflict decisive damage on enemy forces during the first 24 hours of fighting, also known as the Opening Phase of Operations, and prewar Menghean force assessments concluded that the NF would need a 3-to-1 numerical advantage in combat aircraft around the strait in order to offset the capabilities of the EC's newly-upgraded Typhoon and Rafale fighters. The airfield strikes aimed to achieve this ratio by destroying Entente aircraft on the ground, where loss ratios would favor Menghe.

Measured in absolute terms, Operation Sŭngsin was a clear Menghean victory, as the EC suffered much heavier losses in ships, aircraft, and personnel. The Menghean Navy's general staff, however, considered it a failure: Menghean aircraft losses were higher than the operation's planners had anticipated, and EC aircraft losses were lower than anticipated. While it did tip the balance of forces around the strait in Menghe's favor, it did not fully eliminate the EC's ability to contest the airspace north of Khalistan, portending the indecisive outcome of the war.

Background

Balance of air forces

On the eve of the Second Pan-Septentrion War, the Entente Cordiale and the Namhae Front had a relatively even number of fourth-generation fighter aircraft on either side of the Strait of Portcullia, with the Namhae Front operating 408 aircraft and the Entente operating 362. These totals include only aircraft attached to operational fighter squadrons on either side of the strait, and not spares held in deep storage or reserve formations. They also include only aircraft flown by Menghean Naval Aviation. Menghean Army Aviation had several hundred more fighters in Innominada, as did the Republic of Innominada Air Force, but these formations were under the command of the Menghean Army and primarily concerned with operations over land. Therefore, they are excluded from the table below. The 20 Mirage 2000s operated by AeroBlades, a private military company based in Portcullia, are included in the table because Menghean planners anticipated that Sieuxerr would assume control of AeroBlades' forces at the outset of any major conflict with Menghe.

Balance of 4th Gen combat aircraft in the Strait of Portcullia Area, March 2022

Total Namhae Front combat aircraft	408	Total Entente combat aircraft	362
SR-8D Gŏmdoksuri	72	Typhoon	100
SR-8N Chowŏnsuri	36	Super Mirage 4000D	24
SR-8G Jŏndoksuri	12	Mirage 2000C	20
DS-9D/R Shin Biho	144	Valkyrie	36
DS-9G/N Biho (incl. Biho Gae)	144	Rafale B/C	182

These numbers do not reflect the differences in capability between the listed aircraft. By 2022, all EC fighter aircraft in the Strait of Portcullia area with the exception of AeroBlades's Mirages had been outfitted to fire the MBDA Meteor, an air-to-air missile with a range of over 200 kilometers. While Menghe's YGG-110 Chŏn Chang matched the Meteor in performance, it had only entered service in 2020 and was still in low-rate production. Only the SR-8D Gŏmdoksuri and DS-9D/R Shin Biho were able to fire it, and although the Strategic Logistics Agency of the Ministry of National Defense had prioritized YGG-110 deliveries to the Navy, top Naval planners anticipated that the stockpile of YGG-110s available at the start of April 2022 would only last for two days of high-tempo air-to-air combat. Furthermore, the Typhoon, Valkyrie, and Rafale all incorporated advanced composite materials to reduce their radar signatures, while only the SR-8D and DS-9D/R achieved similar levels of stealth.

Balance of surface forces

For most of 2021, the balance of surface forces around the Strait of Portcullia had generally favored the Namhae Front, except during periods when the Entente surged surface forces into the area. The Second Pan-Septentrion War, however, broke out during one of those periods, as the EC conducted a major exercise to support the reinforcement of Isla Diamante. On the morning of April 11th, the EC had four major groups of warships in the general area of Innominada:

• Task Force Acclamator, a Sieuxerrian amphibious battle group at sea east of Khalistan;
• Task Force Princess Royal, an Anglian carrier battle group at sea east of Khalistan;
• Task Force _____, an Anglian anti-submarine battle group docked in Fort St. Arthur; and
• Task Force Rhin, a Sieuxerrian amphibious battle group at sea west of the Strait of Portcullia.

All of these formations contributed to the battle in some way, either by sustaining damage or by firing at Menghean aircraft or missiles. They were supported by a small number of independent corvettes and patrol ships of the Khalistani Navy and Portcullian Navy.

Other Entente assets in the South Menghe Sea included Task Force Carnatica, led by Maracaibo's sole fixed-wing carrier and operating northeast of Sefrou; Task Force Auvernhe, a Sieuxerrian carrier battle group at sea west of Khalistan; Task Force ____, a Sylvan carrier battle group near Isla Diamante; and a Sylvan amphibious battle group overseeing Isla Diamante's reinforcement. The two Sylvan task forces were targeted in Operation Sondokki, also known as the Naval Battle of Isla Diamante, and Task Force Carnatica was sunk in Operation Chŏnman. Task Force Acclamator did not take part in any combat on the first day of operations.

Although the Menghean Navy operated a large number of surface ships, it relied primarily on land-based assets while operating in the vicinity of the Strait of Portcullia. CVBG Gukga Gyŏngje Gijŏk took part in Operation Chŏnman, supported by its independent surface screens, and the 2nd and 5th Anti-Submarine Battle Groups conducted patrol operations east of the strait and did not see combat. Only the following formations were committed to the operation:

• Independent Cruiser Chilsan
  • HJ-388 Chilsan (Insŏng-class destroyer)
• 2nd Destroyer Brigade
  • HJ-379 Pungsu (Haeju-class destroyer)
  • GY-224 Josu (Chŏndong-class destroyer)
  • GY-228 Dolpung (Chŏndong-class destroyer)
• 9th Destroyer Brigade
  • HJ-366 Dongchŏn (Haeju-class destroyer)
  • GY-227 Ho-u (Chŏndong-class destroyer)
  • GY-226 Ilchul (Chŏndong-class destroyer)

In preparation for the offensive, the 2nd and 9th Destroyer Brigades, normally structured as independent formations, were grouped together with the Chilsan into a single ad-hoc formation under the command of Rear Admiral Ho Gyŏng-sŏk. This seven-ship formation was effectively structured as a surface action group, centered on the large destroyer Chilsan rather than an aircraft carrier. Previously a Brigadier Admiral in command of an Escort Brigade, Ho Gyŏng-sŏk was specifically promoted to Rear Admiral in order to give him command authority over such a formation. His flagship Chilsan was also rushed into service in response to news of an EC military deployment: originally scheduled for delivery in late April, she was commissioned on March 27th, before the completion of some non-essential trials.

Menghean battle plan

In a series of classified studies conducted in 2015, the Menghean National Defense Advisory Agency (an organ of the MoND) reached sobering assessments about the relative effectiveness of the Menghean air force. In a series of simulated air-to-air engagements, Menghean DS-9G fighters armed with YGG-7 missiles suffered 3-to-1 losses in engagements with Entente Rafales when the latter were armed with Meteor AAMs. Due to their smaller radar signatures and longer-ranged AAMs, the simulated Entente fighters consistently outfought their Menghean opponents in beyond-visual-range combat, though the two planes performed equally in within-visual-range engagements. These studies expedited the development of the YGG-110 missile, the DS-9D Shin Biho, and the SR-8D Gŭmdoksuri, but they also pushed Menghean military planners to seek aggressive solutions to the perceived imbalance in air power between the two blocs.

Citing these studies, Menghean doctrinal planners estimated that after YGG-110 stockpiles were exhausted, but before Meteor stockpiles were exhausted, DS-9G/N fighters would suffer 3-to-1 losses in engagements with Typhoons, Valkyries, and Rafales. Therefore, these planners concluded, Menghe would need to achieve a 3-to-1 ratio in 4th-generation fighters in order to maintain air superiority over the strait. Any lower ratio would eventually shift the balance in the EC's favor.

Thus, the primary objective of Operation Sŭngsin was to inflict decisive losses on Entente land-based fighter aircraft in the first 24 hours of the war. If the Menghean Navy managed to destroy three-quarters of the EC's 4th-gen fighters adound the Strait of Portcullia in exchange for no more than one-quarter of its own, it would enjoy a 300-to-90 advantage in fighter aircraft, a 3-to-1 ratio which would remain stable in the following weeks of the conflict if the 3-to-1 loss ratio unfolded as expected. To achieve such a feat, Menghe would have to rely on submarine-launched missiles, land-launched missiles, surface ships, and the added initiative provided by a surprise attack in order to destroy Entente fighters on the ground.

The final version of the Operation Sŭngsin plan called for four diesel-electric submarines to covertly approach Entente land targets on the eve of the war, then launch SY-56 Ho-u runway-cratering cruise missiles at H-hour, which would be 1030 hrs Menghean Standard Time. These missiles would crater the runways of the EC's major land bases, grounding all aircraft without giving sortie-ready fighters time to scramble. These same submarines would also fire long-range YŎ-53/19 torpedoes to engage Entente warships docked in major naval bases on the Khalistani coast. To disable the EC's surface-to-air missile defenses in Khalistan, a flight of SR-8G1s would release large numbers of WYGP-100 Saehorigi glide bombs, at which point individual DS-9 formations would approach at low level to engage short-range air defenses and CSNS guidance jammers, clearing the way for a follow-up strike with heavier guided bombs. In order to suppress Portcullia's longer-ranged MASURCA missiles, all of which were based at a stationary PAAMS site, Menghe would send Special Group Chilsan to Portcullia, where its ships would bombard the PAAMS site with rocket-assisted shells shortly after midnight on the 12th and then cruise southeast along the Portcullian coast, bombarding the airbases at Alexandriaville, Newcastle, and Dewsbury. A follow-up strike would then hit surviving targets across Portcullia.

Weather conditions

The Second Pan-Septentrion War began in the middle of April, which, in the Eastern Hemisphere, marked the shift of the inter-tropical convergence zone from Northern Meridia to Southern Hemithea. While the dry season was still ongoing across Southern Hemithea, with clear skies and firm ground, cloud cover over Northern Khalistan was nearing peak density. Throughout the entire duration of Operation Sŭngsin, all of Northern Khalistan, including the island of Portcullia, was experiencing overcast weather, with a dense cloud ceiling starting at 2,800 meters and additional clouds higher up.

This prevented the use of photographic reconnaissance satellites, high-altitude optical reconnaissance drones, and high-altitude laser designation equipment: any aircraft surveilling ground areas or designating targets for laser-guided munitions would have to drop below cloud cover, exposing them to short-range munitions. Low-level fighters would also be the only assets capable of performing post-strike battle damage assessment. It also prevented the use of Menghean TY-8N Sŭngri short-range ballistic missiles and TY-8H Anhae anti-ship ballistic missiles, both of which relied on electro-optical seekers to acquire their targets.

See also

• Operation Chŏnman