2020 United States Presidential Election (LOTF RP)

2020 United States presidential election

November 3, 2020
538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win
Nominee Jillian Dayton (Presumptive) Nathaniel Richardson (Presumptive) Party Democratic Republican Home state Virginia North Carolina Running mate TBA TBA
Incumbent President Richard Tawney Republican

The 2020 United States presidential election is the 59th quadrennial presidential election, to be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. Incumbent President, Rick Tawney is not seeking election to a full-term after taking office in December of 2019 in the wake of the resignation of President Arnold Wolf. Subsequently, the Republican and Democratic Primaries in both parties have been incredibly competitive. This marks the third election since the 1952 Presidential Election, where an incumbent President or incumbent Vice-President did not seek the Presidency, after 2008 and 2016.

Background

Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States. Each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, which is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention (with the exception of the Libertarian Party, which nominates its vice-presidential candidate by delegate vote regardless of the presidential nominee's preference). The general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president. If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, the United States House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the United States Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals. The election will occur simultaneously alongside elections for the House of Representatives, Senate, and various state and local-level elections.

The Maine Legislature passed a bill in August 2019 adopting ranked-choice voting (RCV) both for presidential primaries and for the general election. The Governor of Maine allowed the bill to become law without her signature, which delayed it from taking effect until after the 2020 Democratic primary in March, but made Maine the first state to use RCV for a presidential general election. The Maine Republican Party filed signatures for a veto referendum and preclude the use of RCV for the 2020 election, but the Maine Secretary of State found there were insufficient valid signatures to qualify for the ballot. A challenge in Maine Superior Court was successful for the Maine Republican Party, but the Maine Supreme Judicial Court stayed the ruling pending appeal on September 8, 2020. Nevertheless, ballots began being printed later that day without the veto referendum and including RCV for the presidential election, and the Court ruled in favor of the Secretary of State on September 22, allowing RCV to be used. An emergency appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court was denied on October 6. Implementation of RCV could potentially delay the projection of the winner(s) of Maine's electoral votes for days after election day and may complicate interpretation of the national popular vote. The law continues the use of the congressional district method for the allocation of Maine's electors (Nebraska is the only other state that apportions its electoral votes this way).

On December 14, 2020, pledged electors for each candidate, known collectively as the United States Electoral College, will gather in their state's capital to cast their official ballot. The ballots are sent to Congress to be opened and officially counted pursuant to the processes laid out by the Electoral Count Act of 1887. The newly elected Congress will meet in joint session to open, count, and certify the ballots on January 6, 2021, with the sitting vice president (in his role as president of the Senate) presiding over the session.

Simultaneous elections

Further Information: 2020 United States Senate Elections, 2020 United States House of Representatives Elections and 2020 United States Gubernatorial Elections

The presidential election will occur simultaneously with elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Gubernatorial and legislative elections are also to be held in several states. For the subsequent election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting, although some states have redistricting commissions. Often, a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win elections. Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in drawing new Congressional and state legislative districts which would stay in effect until 2032.

In the simultaneous U.S. Senate elections, there are three special elections to be held in Maryland, Ohio and Illinois. Another vacancy was created for a seat from Missouri however, due to it's timing, the special election for that seat shall be held in 2022 instead.

Nominations

Democratic Party nomination

Primaries

2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries

February 3 to June 3, 2020
3,979 delegates to the Democratic National Convention 1,991 delegates needed to win 2,376 of 4,750 delegates needed to win any subsequent ballots at a contested convention
Candidate Jillian Dayton Levi Murphy Home state Virginia Minnesota Estimated delegate count 2072 1519 Contests won 32 16 Popular vote 17,683,418 13,976,416 Percentage 49.78% 39.44%   Candidate John Donaldson Mike Velez Home state New York Florida Estimated delegate count 150 10 Contests won 0 0 Popular vote 3,629,508 69,169 Percentage 10.58% 0.20%
Previous Past Democratic Nominee Diane Clifford

In August 2018, the Democratic National Committee voted to disallow superdelegates from voting on the first ballot of the nominating process, beginning with the 2020 election. This required a candidate to win a majority of pledged delegates from the assorted primary elections in order to win the party's nomination. The last time this did not occur was the nomination of Adlai Stevenson II at the 1952 Democratic National Convention. Meanwhile, six states used ranked-choice voting in the primaries: Alaska, Hawaii, Kansas, and Wyoming for all voters; and Iowa and Nevada for absentee voters.

After Diane Clifford's loss in the previous election, the Democratic Party was seen largely as leaderless, and was also seen as fractured between the centrist Clifford wing and the more progressive Baginski wing of the party, echoing the rift brought up in the 2016 primary election. In 2018, several U.S. House districts that Democrats hoped to gain from the Republican majority had contentious primary elections. Politico described these clashes as a "Democratic civil war". During this period, there was a general shift to the left in regards to college tuition, healthcare, and immigration among Democrats in the Senate.

The field began with 14 candidates before whittling down to 4 by Iowa.

Date (daily totals)	Total pledged delegates	Contest and total popular vote	Delegates won and popular vote
			Jillian Dayton	Levi Murphy	John Donaldson	Mike Velez
February 3	41	Iowa 176,364	14 60,110 (34.1%)	16 70,475 (40.0%)	5 21,002 (12.4%)	6 24,770 (14.1%)
February 11	24	New Hampshire 298,377	9 113,712 (38.1%)	8 107,535 (36.0%)	3 32,731 (10.9%)	4 44,399 (14.9%)
February 22	36	Nevada 89,855	14 34,031 (38.0%)	16 39,504 (44.0%)	6 16,120 (18.1%)
February 29	54	South Carolina 345,207	23 149,127 (43.2%)	16 98,974 (28.7%)	15 97,106 (28.1%)
March 3 (Super Tuesday) (1,344)	52	Alabama 405,191	28 218,309 (53.88%)	17 124,980 (30.84%)	7 61,902 (15.28%)
	6	American Samoa 349	3 175 (50.14%)	2 118 (33.81%)	1 56 (16.05%)
	31	Arkansas 219,071	17 114,201 (52.13%)	9 70,892 (32.36%)	5 33,978 (15.51%)
	415	California 5,627,205	137 1,842,911 (32.75%)	216 2,939,003 (52.23%)	62 845,291 (15.02%)
	67	Colorado 1,003,292	25 318,771 (31.77%)	42 540,398 (53.86%)	0 144,123 (14.37%)
	24	Maine 214,628	11 89,901 (41.89%)	13 101,812 (47.44%)	0 22,915 (10.68%)
	91	Massachusetts 1,337,510	46 589,556 (44.08%)	45 588,952 (44.03%)	0 159,002 (11.89%)
	75	Minnesota 734,938	19 159,820 (21.75%)	56 485,562 (66.07%)	0 89,556 (12.19%)
	110	North Carolina 1,340,293	58 704,875 (52.59%)	35 434,068 (32.39%)	17 201,350 (15.02%)
	37	Oklahoma 297,209	16 110,357 (37.13%)	21 146,355 (49.24%)	0 40,497 (13.63%)
	64	Tennessee 503,906	38 255,389 (50.68%)	26 175,949 (34.92%)	0 72,568 (14.40%)
	228	Texas 2,041,519	139 1,075,420 (52.68%)	89 689,525 (33.77%)	0 276,576 (13.55%)
	29	Utah 201,171	16 110,357 (37.13%)	21 146,355 (49.24%)	0 40,497 (13.63%)
	16	Vermont 135,656	6 40,654 (29.97%)	10 77,546 (57.16%)	0 17,456 (12.87%)
	99	Virginia 1,280,061	74 834,271 (65.17%)	25 290,540 (22.70%)	0 276,576 (12.13%)
March 3–10	13	Democrats Abroad 38,555	3 10,043 (26.05%)	7 21,156 (54.87%)	0 7,356 (19.08%)
March 10 (352)	20	Idaho 103,335	8 36,289 (35.12%)	12 53,490 (51.76%)	0 13,556 (13.12%)
	125	Michigan 990,062	61 418,568 (42.28%)	64 436,897 (44.13%)	0 134,597 (13.59%)
	36	Mississippi 276,184	21 144,235 (52.22%)	15 100,023 (36.22%)	0 31,926 (11.56%)
	68	Missouri 661,584	31 306,002 (46.25%)	26 249,920 (37.78%)	11 105,662 (15.97%)
	14	North Dakota 14,330	5 4,585 (31.99%)	9 7,685 (44.13%)	0 2,060 (14.37%)
	89	Washington 1,505,329	32 544,669 (36.18%)	42 704,995 (46.83%)	0 255,665 (16.98%)
March 14	6	Northern Mariana Islands
March 17 (577)	67	Arizona 542,301	33 232,330 (42.84%)	34 244,521 (45.09%)	0 65,450 (12.07%)
	219	Florida 1,811,701	127 929,021 (51.28%)	92 659,021 (36.38%)	0 223,659 (12.35%)
	155	Illinois 2,089,711	82 963,698 (46.12%)	73 831,953 (39.81%)	0 294,060 (14.07%)
	136	Ohio 1,499,309	65 628,970 (41.95%)	71 690,336 (46.04%)	0 180,003 (12.01%)
March 24	105	Georgia 1,001,725	61 514,021 (51.31%)	44 368,092 (36.75%)	0 119,612 (11.94%)
March 29	51	Puerto Rico 309,820	32 195,527 (63.11%)	19 114,293 (36.89%)
April 4 (107)	15	Alaska 16,008	9 9,978 (62.33%)	6 6,030 (37.67%)
	24	Hawaii 33,908	16 22,549 (66.50%)	8 6,030 (33.50%)
	54	Louisiana 256,909	38 178,655 (69.64%)	16 78,254 (30.46%)
	14	Wyoming 14,927	8 8,490 (56.88%)	6 6,437 (43.12%)
April 7	84	Wisconsin 1,000,095	53 634,235 (63.48%)	31 365,235 (36.52%)
April 28 (663)	60	Connecticut 264,416	47 206,509 (78.10%)	13 57,907 (21.90%)
	21	Delaware 91,682	15 64,361 (70.20%)	6 27,321 (29.80%)
	96	Maryland 1,050,773	76 833,578 (79.33%)	20 217,195 (20.67%)
	274	New York 1,759,039	203 1,301,337 (73.98%)	71 457,701 (26.02%)
	186	Pennsylvania 1,595,508	128 1,092,763 (68.49%)	58 502,745 (31.51%)
	26	Rhode Island 103,982	22 86,004 (82.71%)	4 17,978 (17.19%)
May 2 (46)	7	Guam 345	5 242 (70.00%)	2 104 (30.00%)
	39	Kansas 143,183	29 107,072 (74.78%)	10 36,111 (25.22%)
May 5	82	Indiana 497,927	56 337,196 (67.72%)	26 160,731 (32.28%)
May 12 (57)	29	Nebraska 164,582	20 115,125 (69.95%)	9 49,457 (30.05%)
	28	West Virginia 187,482	16 106,359 (56.73%)	12 81,123 (43.27%)
May 19 (115)	54	Kentucky 537,905	36 361,795 (67.26%)	18 176,110 (32.74%)
	61	Oregon 618,711	46 465,209 (75.19%)	15 153,502 (24.81%)
June 2 (215)	20	D.C.
	126	New Jersey
	34	New Mexico
	19	Montana
	16	South Dakota
June 6	7	U.S. Virgin Islands

Republican Party nomination

Primaries

2020 Republican Party presidential primaries

February 3 to June 3, 2020
2,562 delegates to the Republican National Convention 1,282 delegates needed to win
Candidate Nathaniel Richardson Bernard Porter Home state North Carolina Virginia Estimated delegate count 614 308 Contests won 12 5 Popular vote 6,895,669 5,284,944 Percentage 56.61% 43.39%
Previous Past Republican Nominee Arnold Wolf

The Republican Primary was until January 2019 expected to be a pro-forma re-nomination of President Arnold Wolf. However, with his announcement that he would not seek a second term following diagnosis with brain cancer, the primary field was blown wide open. The primary began with 11 major candidates and was whittled to two by Iowa.

Date (daily totals)	Total pledged delegates	Contest and total popular vote	Type	Delegates won and popular vote
				Nathaniel Richardson	Bernie Porter
February 3	40	Iowa 177,605	Pro.	24 105,485	16 72,099
February 11	22	New Hampshire 243,282	Pro.	14 125,534	8 68,606
February 19	50	South Carolina 597,141	WTM	38 306,632	12 289,614
February 22	25	Nevada 39,962	Pro.	11 17,024	14 22,938
March 3 (785)	50	Alabama 608,541	WTM	0 258,022	50 350,520
	40	Arkansas 152,360	WTM	4 68,105	36 84,256
	172	California 2,948,500	WTM	172 1,913,577	0 1,034,924
	37	Colorado 698,580	WTM	37 384,918	0 313,663
	22	Maine 18,627	WTM	22 9,351	0 9,277
	41	Massachusetts 597,523	WTM	41 329,833	0 267,691
	39	Minnesota 114,987	WTM	21 60,024	18 54,964
	71	North Carolina 1,248,102	Pro.	45 728,892	26 519,211
	43	Oklahoma 462,542	WTM	6 218,783	37 243,760
	58	Tennessee 802,445	WTM	25 366,718	33 435,728
	155	Texas 3,035,234	WTM	97 1,645,097	58 1,390,138
	40	Utah 423,204	WTM	40 319,096	0 104,109
	17	Vermont 62,024	WTM	17 38,579	0 23,446
March 10 (300)	19	Hawaii	Pro.
	32	Idaho	WTM
	39	Kansas	Pro.
	73	Michigan	WTM
	40	Mississippi	Pro.
	54	Missouri	WTM
	43	Washington	Pro.
March 14	9	Guam	WTA
March 15	9	Northern Marianas	WTA
March 17 (271)	122	Florida	WTA
	67	Illinois	WTA
	82	Ohio	WTA
March 18	9	American Samoa	Pro.
March 24	76	Georgia	WTA
March 27	29	North Dakota	Pro.
April 2	29	Alaska	Pro.
April 4 (55)	46	Louisiana	WTA
	9	U.S. Virgin Islands	Pro.
April 7	52	Wisconsin	WTA
April 17	48	Virginia	WTA
April 28 (283)	28	Connecticut	WTM
	16	Delaware	WTA
	38	Maryland	WTA
	94	New York	WTA
	88	Pennsylvania	WTM
	19	Rhode Island	WTM
May 5	58	Indiana	WTA
May 9 (115)	57	Arizona	Pro.
	29	Wyoming	WTM
May 12 (71)	36	Nebraska	WTA
	35	West Virgina	WTA
May 19 (74)	46	Kentucky	Pro.
	28	Oregon	Pro.
June 2 (146)	19	District of Columbia	WTA
	27	Montana	WTA
	49	New Jersey	WTA
	22	New Mexico	Pro.
	29	South Dakota	WTA
June 7	23	Puerto Rico	WTM

General Election

Polling

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Poll source	Date	Sample size	Margin of error	Jillian Dayton Democratic	Nathaniel Richardson Republican	Other	Undecided	Lead
Swayable	May 18-21	720 (RV)	± 4.2%	46%	42%	2%	10%	4%
CNN	May 15 - May 16	997 (LV)	± 4.5%	45%	41%	2%	12%	4%
Tartalek/Wall Street Journal	May 5 - May 11	1,714 (LV)	± 3.5%	46%	43%	2%	9%	3%
Ipsos/Reuters	April 30 - May 2	714 (LV)	± 4.7%	45%	42%	3%	10%	3%
YouGov/Economist	April 30 - May 1	963 (LV)	–	44%	41%	2%	13%	3%
Swayable	April 25 - May 1	1,068 (RV)	–	45%	40%	2%	13%	5%
Ipsos	April 24 - April 27	704 (LV)	–	43%	41%	2%	14%	2%