2020 United States general election (Archive)

2020 United States general election

February 22, 2020
All 1998 seats to the United States Congress 1000 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	90.59%
First party Second party Third party   Leader John Fetterman Mitt Romney Kyrsten Sinema Party Social Democratic Party/Southern Social Democrats Democratic Republican Party Free Democratic Party U.S. Leader since June 29, 2019 January 19, 2016 June 20, 2018 Leader's seat Stern, PA Swenson, UT Arizona at-Large Seats before 891 663 105 Seats won 783 618 154 Seat change 108 45 49 Popular vote 87,718,388 69,031,326 17,899,640 Percentage 37.43% 29.45% 7.64% Swing 5.42% 2.61% 2.30   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Ted Cruz Lynne Serpe Jon Tester Party Christian Conservative Union Greens Party U.S.A. Farmers Federation Leader since November 2, 2014 July 2, 2017 August 8, 2013 Leader's seat Texas at-Large New York at-Large Haskell, MT Seats before 106 126 76 Seats won 137 145 102 Seat change 21 19 26 Popular vote 17,210,894 16,648,502 13,143,201 Percentage 7.34% 7.10% 5.61% Swing 1.55 0.61 1.23
Results by winning party by constituency for the U.S. Congress   SDP   SSD   GRN   FFA   DRP   FDP   CCU   NFP   SOC
Chancellor before election John Fetterman [[SDP (SDP/SSD-GRN Coalition)|SDP (SDP/SSD-GRN Coalition)]] Chancellor John Fetterman [[SDP (SDP/SSD-GRN-FFA Coalition)|SDP (SDP/SSD-GRN-FFA Coalition)]]

The 2020 United States general election was held on February 22, 2020 to elect members of the 53rd Congress of the United States. The election was called following the dissolution of the 52nd Congress elected at the 2015 general election. All 1998 seats of the Congress were up for election.

The second-term SDP-led government was able to enter a historic third-consecutive term by entering into a "Red-Green-Green" coalition with the Greens and Farmers Federation. Without the Farmers Federation, the SDP/SSD-Greens coalition would have been unable to form government as the collective coalition lost a net of 89 seats. Despite this, the SDP/SSD remained the largest parliamentary voting bloc, with a joint 783 seats between them. This was followed by the Democratic Republican Party which saw it's third consecutive election with losses, continuing a decade of losses.

The electoral system in the United States enforces compulsory voting, and uses full-preferential voting for single-member constituency seats with first-past-the-post voting to award at-Large balancing seats. The election was administered by the Federal Electoral Commission.

On election night the result was seen as an aberration as opinion polling had been unable to capture the strong increase in support for non-major parties. Polling had accurately predicted the SDP/SSD would remain the largest party, but had been unable to forecast the full scale of support gained and lost in various states. Opposition Leader Mitt Romney indicated his desire to fight to remain leader of the DRP, but within days a competitive race has emerged to decide the new leader of the DRP. Chancellor John Fetterman indicated he would attempt to form coalition with either the Free Democrats or Farmers, and was able to announce the formation of a coalition six weeks later.

Results

Government (1030)
Coalition
  Social Democratic Party (657)
  Southern Social Democrats (126)
  The Greens (145)
  Farmers Federation (102)

Opposition (618)
  Democratic Republican Party (618)

Crossbench (319)
  Free Democratic Party (154)
  Christian Conservative Union (137)
  National Freedom Party (33)
  Socialist Party (28)
 

Party			Votes	%	Swing (pp)	Seats			Change (seats)
						C	A	T
	Social Democratic Union
		Social Democratic Party	73,779,189	31.48	−5.26	424	233	657	105
		Southern Social Democrats	13,939,199	5.95	−0.16	81	45	126	3
	Union Total		87,718,388	37.43	−5.42	505	278	783	108
	Democratic Republican Party		69,031,326	29.45	−2.68	365	251	616	47
	Free Democratic Party		17,899,640	7.64	+2.30	9	145	154	49
	Christian Conservative Union		17,210,894	7.34	+1.55	51	86	137	31
	The Greens		16,648,502	7.10	+0.61	20	125	145	19
	Farmers Federation		13,143,201	5.61	+1.23	46	56	102	26
	Socialist Party		6,764,540	2.89	−0.13	1	27	28	3
	National Freedom Party		5,952,839	2.54	+2.54	2	31	33	33
Turnout			234,369,207	90.59	+0.04	–	–	–	–
Registered voters/turnout			258,715,972	–	–	–	–	–	–

Nationwide party vote Social Democratic Union   37.43% Democratic Republican Party   29.45% Free Democratic Party   7.64% Christian Conservative Union   7.34% The Greens   7.10% Farmers Federation   5.61% Socialist Party   2.89% National Freedom Party   2.54%

Constituency two-party-preferred vote Social Democratic Union   52.11% Democratic Republican Party   47.89%

Congressional Total Seats Social Democratic Union   39.19% Democratic Republican Party   30.83% Free Democratic Party   7.71% Christian Conservative Union   6.86% The Greens   7.26% Farmers Federation   5.11% Socialist Party   1.40% National Freedom Party   1.65%

Background

Previous Election

At the 2015 United States general election, first-term Chancellor Barack Obama was able to form government for a second term by entering a coalition with the Greens. It had been apparent on election night the Social Democrats had lost their near-majority status and would need to enter formal coalition talks. Also at the 2015 election, independent MC for Manhattan West Michael Bloomberg was unseated by Cynthia Nixon who won the seat for the Greens. This constituted the first Congress since 1923, to have no non-partisan independent MCs. For the first time ever in U.S. history, two consecutive Congresses featured no independent MCs although independent candidate for Manhattan West, Donald Trump, was the closest independent candidate for a constituency seat.

Barack Obama announced a coalition with the Greens in early November, three weeks after the election.

Union Instability

Since the formation of the Southern Social Democrats in the early 1970s as a separate brand of Social Democratic candidates, the demarcation line had been strictly enforced. The line explicitly curtailed the national Social Democratic Party from attempting to coerce the affiliation of state, county or sub-branches of the Southern Social Democrats to defect and instead elect delegates and participate in the SDP ecosystem. This line was first eroded at the 1998 Conference, where a majority of delegates from Florida voted to amend the provisions required, and return the state branch of the Southern Social Democrats into the national Social Democratic Party. In 2004, efforts to draw away Texas, narrowly failed. In 2012, shortly into the Obama Chancellery, the Georgia branch of the SSD defected and in 2014, Oklahoma followed suit - though the two did so for wildly different reasons. In Georgia, an influx of urban Social Democrats, with opinions closer to the national median than the Southern median took control of the branch while in Oklahoma, the continued decline of the party saw cosmopolitan delegations outweigh conservative factions and in turn both branches were returned into the SDP proper by the 2015 general election.

At the 2015 general election, the Union was re-elected to a second term in coalition with the Greens. Then-Chancellor Barack Obama retired in 2017 and was succeeded by Obama-ally Terry McAuliffe of Virginia. McAuliffe had overseen the affiliation of the SSD-Virginia to the SDP ahead of the 2016 Social Democratic Union Convention. The continued decline of the SSD was met with strong demands from SSD MCs, hence McAuliffe who had been the subject of disapproval by SSD leadership and caucus members, was dismissed six months into his tenure. He would be succeeded by Bill Nelson (MC for Florida). Nelson was widely seen as a stand-in among the public due to his age and hence, the anticipation was that there would be a full party ballot for Union Leader in the 2018 convention. This proved inaccurate, as with no consensus candidate as an alternative, no ballot was ordered for the leadership of the party.

In 2019, the Nelson Government was dealt a serious defeat in the 2019 Zanuck special election. SDP Incumbent Gaston Caperton had died of a heart attack and at the eventual by-election, the SDP experienced the largest single-seat swing for a political party since the adoption of full preferential voting. The result was seen as a wide rebuke of the collective SDP/SSD union brand and triggered calls for Nelson's resignation. At the ensuing leadership election, an upset was seen as backbencher John Fetterman, MC for Stern; was elected leader of the SDP/SSD.

Upon Fetterman's swearing-in, the Union vote experienced a fall in opinion polling to below 30%.

State of constituencies

Of the 999 constituencies, 251 were classified 'marginal', where the winning candidate obtained between 50% and 55% of the two-candidate preferred vote. A further 288 were classified as 'probably safe', placing the winning candidate between 55% and 60%. The remaining 460 seats were deemed 'safe' or 'very safe'. Post-election marginal seats are listed below.

Marginal Seats

Marginal Government Constituencies
Webster (NH)	Donna Soucy	SDP	50.06
Homestead (FL)	Debbie Mucarsel-Powell	SDP	50.09
Garner (TX)	Julian Castro	SSD	50.12
Milwaukee (WI)	Mandela Barnes	SDP v. GRN	50.19
Marsalis (LA)	Mark Johnson	SSD	50.21
Saturiwa (FL)	Garrett Dennis	SDP	50.23
Waymon (NC)	Arthur Wright	SSD	50.24
Frederick (MD)	Donna Kuzemchak	SDP	50.35
Austin North (TX)	Leslie Pool	GRN v. SSD	50.37
Terre Haute (IN)	John Hamilton	SDP	50.38
San Rafael (CA)	Maika Gulati	GRN v. SDP	50.46
Attleboro (MA)	Paul Heroux	SDP	50.47
Blackmun (IL)	Cheri Bustos	SDP v. FFA	50.57
Evansville (IN)	Missy Mosby	SDP	51.11
Adelbert (OH)	Priscilla Tyson	SDP	51.12
San Francisco North (CA)	John Avalos	GRN v. SDP	51.14
Mantcunanjin (NE)	Leirion Baird	SDP	51.23
Athens (GA)	Kelly Girtz	SDP	51.29
Feickart (NJ)	Jeff Van Drew	SDP	51.29
Eartha (FL)	James O'Brien	SDP	51.31
Manhattan West (NY)	Cynthia Nixon	GRN v. FDP	51.33
Pershing (MO)	Lyndell Brenton	SDP v. FFA	51.36
Blanchard (LA)	Aprill Foulcard	SSD	51.49
Dunwoody (GA)	Marvin Lim	SDP v. FDP	51.55
Chesterfield (MO)	Jake Zimmerman	SDP	51.67
Roseburg (TX)	Sri Kulkarni	SSD	51.84
Rehnquist (WI)	Chadwick Hawkins	FFA v. SDP	51.94
Ricker (NH)	Joyce Craig	SDP	52.03
Florence (SC)	Theresa Ervin	SSD	52.07
Chaney (CO)	Tara Beiter-Fluhr	SDP	52.13
Philadelphia (PA)	Brendan Boyle	SDP v. GRN	52.16
Redlands (CA)	Paul Foster	SDP	52.16
Morgan (KY)	Dave Suetholz	SDP	52.17
Ann Arbor (MI)	Yousef Rabhi	GRN v. SDP	52.25
Lahaina (HI)	Mike Victorino	GRN v. SDP	52.34
Enterprise (NV)	Sandra Jauregui	SDP	52.44
Neuberger (OR)	Chuck Bennett	SDP	52.44
Caine (UT)	Ben McAdams	SDP	52.46
Roosevelt (NY)	Cynthia Doran	SDP	52.49
Heffelfinger (MN)	Kim Norton	SDP	52.53
Tampa South (FL)	Bob Henriquez	SDP	52.54
Adolphine (AR)	Blanche Lincoln	SSD	52.56
Fitzgerald (NY)	Stephen Schultz	SDP	52.58
Muskie (ME)	Jared Golden	SDP	52.59
Shreveport (AR)	Adrian Perkins	SSD	52.65
Arango (FL)	Juan Carlos Bermudez	SDP	52.71
Twain (MO)	Randy Verkamp	FFA v. CCU	52.72
Adirondack (NY)	Tedra Cobb	SDP v. FFA	52.83
Etheridge (MI)	Kathy Thurman	SDP	52.99
Watts (FL)	Stephanie Murphy	SDP	53.02
Gowanas (NY)	Stephen Levin	GRN v. SDP	53.07
Ashurst(AZ)	Joan Greene	SDP	53.17
Mirikitani (CA)	Susan Eggman	SDP	53.17
Carnegie (PA)	Pam Snyder	SDP v. FFA	53.19
Laney (GA)	Hardie Davis	SDP	53.19
Peratrovich (AK)	Sara Hannan	SDP	53.19
Fitzsimmons (MI)	Rosemary Bayer	SDP	53.26
Fort Collins (CO)	Joe Neguse	SDP	53.27
Labadie (MI)	Brenda Moore	SDP	53.31
Exon (NE)	Adrian Smith	FFA v. DRP	53.32
Huntsville (AL)	Steve Hettinger	SSD	53.36
Tallchief (OK)	George Pankonin	FFA v. CCU	53.38
Stockton (CA)	Carlos Villapudua	SDP	53.39
Braden (KY)	Rocky Adkins	SDP v. CCU	53.43
Spokane (WA)	Mary Verner	SDP	53.46

Marginal Opposition Constituencies
Whitney (NJ)	Kimberly Guadagno	DRP	50.02
Hialeah (FL)	Carlos Hernández	DRP	50.03
Modesto (CA)	Heath Flora	DRP	50.06
Fessenden (ME)	Catherine Conlow	DRP	50.06
Beech(KS)	Terry Bruce	DRP v. FFA	50.09

Retiring members

In the United States, constituency seats have a historical tendency to favor incumbents against the national partisan swing. Hence, seats where incumbents announce their retirements, are noted as potentially more competitive. The below are constituency electorates with incumbent MCs who retired and did not recontest their election.

Social Democratic

• Tom Udall (Bandelier, NM) - announced retirement March 25, 2019.
• Jose Serrano (Feynman, NY) - announced retirement March 25, 2019.
• Susan Davis (San Diego East, CA) - announced retirement September 4, 2019.
• Nita Lowey (Westchester, NY) - announced retirement October 10, 2019.
• Peter Visclosky (Gary, IN) - announced retirement November 6, 2019.

Democratic Republican

• Lamar Alexander (Sequoyah, TN) - announced retirement December 17, 2018.
• Mike Enzi (Knapp, WY) - announced retirement May 4, 2019.
• Rob Woodall (Buford, GA) - announced retirement February 7, 2019.
• Susan Brooks (Mulinnix, IN) - announced retirement June 14, 2019.
• Paul Mitchell (Adela, MI) - announced retirement July 24, 2019.
• Pete Olson (Rosenburg, TX) - announced retirement July 25, 2019.
• Martha Roby (Baskin, AL) - announced retirement July 26, 2019.
• Mike Conaway (Holelamp, TX) - announced retirement July 30, 2019.
• Will Hurd (Ximenes, TX) - announced retirement August 1, 2019.
• Kenny Marchant (Colleyville, TX) - announced retirement August 5, 2019.
• John Shimkus (Effingham, IL) - announced retirement August 30, 2019.
• Bill Flores (Waco, TX) - announced retirement September 4, 2019.
• Jim Sensenbrenner (Welles, WI) - announced retirement September 4, 2019.
• Francis Rooney (Naples, FL) - announced retirement October 19, 2019.
• Peter King (Hempstead, NY) - announced retirement November 11, 2019.

Others

Farmers Federation

• Pat Roberts (Layton, KS) - announced retirement January 4, 2019.
• Dave Loebsack (Carothers, IA) - announced retirement April 12, 2019.
• Greg Walden (Peyton, OR) - announced retirement October 28, 2019.