Central Karana War

Central Karana War
Date 03 July - 25 August 2010 Location Karana Basin, Itayana Result Operational ISA victory, strategically inconclusive AMF fails to topple the Solar Autocracy ISA stops advance upstream Karana Territorial changes Status quo ante bellum
Belligerents
Amayana Makgato Federation Supported by: Charnea	Itayana Solar Autocracy Supported by: Orun Redisus
Commanders and leaders
some rebel scum Flash Flood commander † an honourable general †	Unifying Eternal Sun Glorious Grand General Glorious Air Marshal
Strength
585,000 (277,000 engaged) 87 tanks 1800 armoured cars 287 aircraft 570 riverine craft	510,000 (101,000 engaged) 600 tanks 2200 armored cars 980 aircraft 235 riverine craft
Casualties and losses
54,000 killed 95,000 wounded 81,000 captured 261 aircraft lost 505 riverine craft	11,000 killed 24,000 wounded 7,200 captured 49 aircraft lost 61 riverine craft

The Central Karana War, also erroneously known as Central Itayana War, was a brief conflict over the course of the Unifying Revival between the forces of [[Makgato|Amayana Makgato Federation}} of the upper Karana Basin and the Itayana Solar Autocracy of the lower Karana Basin. After a steady deterioration of relationship between AMF and ISA over the course of 2000s, the Karana basin political entities started preparation for conflict. When the economic downturn caused by overspending hit the ISA and transformed into political instability, the Makgato Defense Force launched a sudden two-pronged attack, aiming to topple the administration of the Solar Temple of Yanbango.

Although the AMF forces managed to reach the former 8th Governorate in three days, the land force was stopped at the Battle of KKK, while the riverine force was destroyed by air attacks at the Battle of HHH. Itayana Air Fleet conducted several successive air strikes in the operational depth of the AMF forces, and the subsequent counterattack turned the retreat into a rout from the central Karana basin, only stopped by attrition and the rainfall season. By the time enough forces could be amassed by the Autocracy, AMF regrouped and established defensive lines in the highlands at the Makgato plateau. International mediation, particularly by Charnea, caused AMF and ISA to sign the ceasefire agreement on conditions of territorial status quo ante bellum.

Central Karana War is notable for the first combat actions of the 5th generation fighters. It was also the first relatively large-scale mechanized war to the south of Ninva, as well as the first such war in Scipia in three decades. The war saw employment of massed riverine flotillas by AMF and massed air offensive operations by the Autocracy. Failure of AMF to topple the Autocracy solidified the Temple as a legitimate force of the Karana Basin. However, by refusing to advance towards the Makgato Plateau, the Autocracy effectively put the Unifying Revival on hold.

Buildup and operational plans

AMF

Operational plans of the Makgato Plateau governorates started being drafted in 2001 with the Proclamation of the Unifying Sun Manifested. Those primarily targeted the Solar Temple of Yanbango as the centrepiece of the Solar Autocracy while avoiding targeting population centers and, to some extent, the aligned military forces. Later plans increased focus on the military, while keeping Yanbango as the primary target. Crucially, the last-minute addition, introduced at the request of the operation staff, postulated that the captured priesthood was to be kept captive until the Solar Autocracy signs the instrument of surrender.

Makgato Defense Force Staff put emphasis on combined actions of mobile forces and riverine fleet in its planning. The riverine operation, code named Flash Flood, involved sweeping downstream and capturing Yanbango and Aribango by riverine troops. The land operation, code named Landslide, involved traversing central and lower Karana basin by highly mobile prongs of mounted motorized infantry. Within fourteen days at most, the entire right bank of Karana and key members of the solarist priesthood would be captured. That expected to collapse the structure of power completely, which was assumed to allow MDF to secure Imo basin with minimal resistance.

AMF military buildup in 2000s was dictated by trying to match offensive plans and financial limitations. MDF was mechanized with various APCs and armoured cars to be used in the refined version of the ICA long-range raiding column tactics. The MDF River Force was expanded, with over 300 gunboats and ferries launched and armed form 2003 to 2010. Revised tactics of the riverine forces included advancing under the cover of both the air force and vessel-based SAM batteries. With the help of the ICA, the air force was strengthened with surplus fighters from the Ninvite War, mainly K'akmul 5, Fa-21 and Fa-23ML, as well as COIN aircraft squadrons to act in close coordination with the ground assault units.

The buildup, while impressive in size, was not without its shortcomings. Several generals of the Autocracy derisively called MDF "the Scrapyard of Scipia" for its variety of vehicles complicating logistics and maintenance. Although the army possessed sufficient number of MANPADS, medium-range SAM batteries were small in number and obsolete, represented by Kvadrat and Romb systems. In addition to that, the attacking force lacked sufficient number of air surveillance radars, with about a dozen complexes deployed. Finally, despite the efforts, MDF Air Corps was subpar to the Autocracy Air Fleet in numbers, equipment and operational capabilities; crucially, it could not attack fortified airfields in the strategic depth of the Autocracy.

These deficiencies, particularly the lack of air supremacy, were known to the generals of MDF and caused considerable alarm within its ranks. Interviews with high-ranking commanders after the war showed that a few of them had doubts about whether the plan could work, and that the decision to start the invasion was a gamble on internal instability of the Autocracy, with the AMF hoping that the Temple would not be able to rally its forces.

ISA

Information on the internal affairs of the Solar Temple of Yanbango has been scarce, owing to the nature of the cult. It appears as if the Solar Autocracy had no plan of action for AMF invasion of the Karana basin, and its military buildup in 2000s did not betray any kind of defensive intent. Having significantly more resources than AMF, the Autocracy was plagued with competing internal interests, hindering much of its economical advantage.

The Autocracy put extreme emphasis on developing its air force and ocean-going fleet. Over the course of 10 years, the Air Fleet received four squadrons of A16S1 fighters; by then, the strongest aircraft overall in the Karana basin. They was complemented by over 200 refurbished jet aircraft of older models like A4I7 and A5F6 fighters and B4I4 fighter-bombers; about 400 B2M3 and B3G3 bombers were the backbone of the ground attack units. Finally, as the result of previous negotiations with the Oxidentale Jet Works consortium, the Air Fleet received six A20X1 Harpy Eagle fighters in 2009. As the 5th generation fighters, those represented the most advanced aircraft south of Ninva. Their performance was hindered because inter-service integrated data networks were underdeveloped and the Autocracy had no proper airborne early warning aircraft, but the latter was mitigated through integration with A16S fighters.

By its nature as an oceangoing force, the Unifying Navy did not contribute to the war in the Karana Basin, but listing its buildup is necessary for the context. By July, 2010 it included 24 frigates in its main force, including 16 of the domestic design, and two more were finishing sea trials. Its submarine program was in its infancy, while its aircraft carrier program met considerable troubles and delays, rendering the completed vessel inoperational. The naval aviation received 18 navalized A16S1 fighters and a squadron of H4T1 patrol aircraft.

In contrast to the full-scale rearmament of the other branches, Amayana National Army focused on maintenance of their large park of motorized equipment, mostly trucks and outdated Elatian and Velikoslavian APCs and IFVs, as well as Zacapine TNT. Token acquisition of modern vehicles did not change the overall trend on maintenance over acquisitions, and most of the new vehicles, such as T70125 MBT, ISV60 Praetorian combat support vehicle and Ọfà IFV, were concentrated in the specialized unit, the 14th Mechanized Division. In addition to that, the 2003 army reorganization cut the officer corps of ANA by over 60%, removing many politically-appointed generals from the former governorate armies. It was noted post factum that by 2010 the ANA officer corps was 4.5 times less total than the one of MDF but the qualitative effect of the reform has not yet been estimated. The riverine fleet under administrative control of the National Army was reorganized and refit in 2007-2008. From the technical standpoint, the riverine forces of the opposing sides were nearly identical, outside of the larger anti-air missile platforms the AMF possessed. However, the MDF River Force outnumbered the one of the Autocracy 5:2. Overall, the ANA forces largely held technical parity with the MDF with local units holding technical supremacy, all while being outnumbered at about 3:1.

Two acts of the ISA could be seen as a preparation to war. First was the relocation of several aircraft formations to the left bank of Karana. Second was the deployment of the majority of the Navy to defensive positions in Oorupaqi ocean. However, with ANA forces largely scattered across Karana and Imo basins, it appears that the Autocracy was not aware of the impending attack, let alone of the scale of it.

Theatre of operation

Main article: Karana Basin

The theatre of operations encompassed parts of the Karana Basin downstream from the Makgato Plateau that correspond to the area of historical 8th, 10th and 12th Governorates. It is roughly delimited by Agala highlands to the north, Karana river to the south, and two of the largest Karana inlets, Erinle and Kasai, to the west and east respectively. The war got its name from the fact the theatre splits the Karana basin roughly in half.

The area is considered the core territory of the Unifying Realm, having been developed and populated for over three millennia. The landscape is mostly flat at the river itself, but the outward area is dominated by hills separated by small rivers and canals. The area has been extensively transformed with numerous canals crossing to the river and artificial ponds keeping water for the purposes of irrigation. The Temple made successful efforts to rebuild and expand on the system combining older plans with newer additions. Three dominant roads crossed the countryside: the first ran parallel to the river from Aribango to the border and further to Yanomi; the second ran from Aribango parallel to the Trans-Karana Railroad further inland; the third started at Agala highlands and proceeded towards SSS, capital of the 6th Governorate. Three major cities in the area were the regional centres and former governorate capitals ─ KKK for the 8th, MMM for the 10th and TTT for the 12th. Each represented an operational objective to be secured.

The theatre placed certain restrictions on the opposing forces. The hills upstream favoured the defending side while restricting manoeuvrability of the attacker. Canals and other irrigation systems likewise contributed to complicating the war of manoeuvre, for both sides. Finally, the campaign started just about 20 days before the rainfall season started, giving a very narrow weather window to accomplish the objectives.

Operations

AMF advance (03-12.07)

Makgato Defence Force started its campaign at 2100 02.07.2010 when the Flash Flood assault force was assembled at Airashe and ordered to action. At 0500 03.07.2010, MDF Air Corps conducted an opening attack at several installations, mainly the known command and communication facilities, and the ground force started advancing at 0600. MDF achieved complete surprise, overwhelming the few units of the Autocracy at the borders.

Operation Flash Flood

Operation: Flash Flood
Part of Central Karana War
Date 03-04 July 2010 Location Karana Basin, Itayana Result ISA victory
Belligerents
Amayana Makgato Federation	Itayana Solar Autocracy
Commanders and leaders
Flash Flood commander † Flash Flood ground force commander (POW)	52nd Fighter Wing commander 30th Fighter Wing commander Riverine commander Governor of HHH
Strength
18,700 490 river craft 47 planes	10,400 105 river craft 125 planes
Casualties and losses
9,577 379 craft 29 planes destroyed	1,513 47 craft 22 planes damaged

The Flash Flood assault force crossed the border at approximately 0000 03.07.2010, after a minor skirmish with the Autocracy riverine patrols. By 0500 03.07.2010, the force crossed halfway to the city of HHH, the capital of the former 3rd Governorate. Its assault detachments engaged scattered ANA forces, helping the MDF to advance, but the landing at WWW at 0530 was met with heavy resistance and failed. At 0600 the covering air detachment was detected by a lone A16S1; after a brief air-to-air and surface-to-air engagement, the plane escaped and reported the location to the 52nd Fighter Wing. The riverine forces of the Autocracy scrambled to respond, moving towards HHH, while the 52nd Fighter Wing and the 30th Bomber Wing scrambled to attack the fleet.

At 0715, six Harpy Eagles from 1./52 engaged the covering force of 22 Fa-23ML and shot down 17 planes in three minutes. The remaining planes retreated, opening the way for the 30th Bomber Wing to attack the fleet, while ten A16s of the 3./52 suppressed air defences by destroying observation and targeting radars, and missile launchers. 30th Bomber Wing attacked in two waves: 2./30 at 0740, and 1./30, 3./30 and 4./30 at 0805; 52nd Wing supported the attack efforts of the second wave with 2./52 and 4./52 armed with air-to-ground missiles. The invasion force suffered heavy losses from the first wave, so in order to save as many troops as possible the commander ordered to disembark near HHH at 0750. The Autocracy riverine squadron engaged the Flash Flood force at 0845. Despite heavy resistance, the battered MDF River Fleet was completely routed, dozens of vessels surrendering or beaching themselves near the HHH.

Despite the rout and casualties, about 6,500 men landed near HHH and advanced towards the city, joined by about 2,300 men from the beached craft. The force lacked proper artillery, but salvaged two batteries of 73mm recoilless guns (16 units) and 47 heavy machine guns from the beached vessels. The force lacked supplies for more than two days of intensive operations and was short on ammunition for its heavier equipment. Owing to that, the commander made choice to advance towards HHH to capture supplies and potentially threaten the left bank of Karana.

The local garrison of HHH had only 4,500 troops of the locally-recruited 3rd Infantry Banner. Upon the first news of the MDF invasion in 0650, the city governor additionally rallied the local militias, adding another 5,200 men armed from the warehouses of the local HHH Arsenal. The defenders mounted various machine guns on the city walls and flooded the surrounding trenches just before the attacking force arrived. The riverine troops approached the city by 0930 to find the gates closed and, reportedly, the Autocracy flag waving at each of the three gates.

The MDF detachment made five attacks over the next 24 hours. The attackers were forced to attack in the open, under heavy fire from the walls. Most notably, several rapid-firing 7.62mm machine guns mounted in the gate tower embrasures were particularly effective in suppressing fire. The night attack by a consolidated company breached the city gates, but the attacking force was isolated and destroyed within three hours. At 0930 04.07.2010, the commander of the MDF offered surrender of his troops, which was accepted.

What vessels remained afloat after the operation returned to Airashe by 0000 05.07.2020, to a demoralizing effect. The operation was a costly failure for the MDF. Although flanking landings eased up the resistance on the MDF Army march towards the lower Karana basin, the main landing force could not reach Yanbango, nor could it capture HHH. In addition to that, 379 vessels were destroyed or damaged with the loss of 7,340 personnel, while the ground attack force lost 3,237 men killed and 3,962 wounded. Sustained losses crippled the MDF River Force, limiting it to tactical-level operations for the rest of the war.

The Autocracy riverine fleet suffered 47 vessels destroyed or damaged, with 970 dead total. The HHH forces lost 543 dead and 962 wounded. From the Air Fleet, 52nd Fighter Wing reported three A16s damaged, while 30th Bomber Wing reported 19 bombers damaged.