2024 Theodoran Senate election

2024 Theodoran Senate election

15 November 2024
All 30 Senate seats 16 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	TBD
First party Second party Third party   Leader Stefanos Androulakis Sophia Alexandrides Anna Denkova Party Spring+  Centre Union Movement for our Rights Last election 39.85%, 12 seats 21.50%, 7 seats 8.76%, 4 seats Seats won 14 10 2 Seat change 2 3 2 Popular vote 62,183 42,505 7.74% Percentage 44.81% 30.65% 5,288 Swing 4.96% 9.15% 1.02%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Mihalis Bouras Vasily Ivanov George Kostides Party  Optimates  New Union  Golden Dawn Last election 4.94%, 0 seats 7 seats 0.01%, 0 seats Seats won 2 2 0 Seat change 2 5 Popular vote 10,026 9,924 3,313 Percentage 7.23% 7.15% 2.39 Swing 2.29% New list 2.38%
Mesazon before election Stefanos Androulakis Theodoran Spring Mesazon TBD TBD

Snap elections were held in Theodorous and the Parathalassias on November 15th, 2024 to elect the 30 members of the principality's unicameral Senate.

Background

2022 election

The 2022 Senate election delivered a victory for the leftist Theodoran Spring party, which won twelve seats. The Spring formed a pact with the then-centrist Movement for our Rights (MfoR), which agreed to provide confidence and supply to Spring Mesazon (head of government) Stefanos Androulakis in exchange for certain concessions on minority rights issues.

MfoR withdrawal

The Movement for our Rights experienced a polling surge in early 2024, culminating in a record second-place finish in June's European Parliament elections. Apparently seeking to "ride" the national-populist wave that was sweeping across Europe, the MfoR adopted populist, anti-immigrant stances and withdrew from its coalition with the Spring in July, depriving the party of its working majority. Mesazon Stefanos Androulakis held talks with the opposition Centre Union, eventually agreeing to schedule elections for November after the passage of a new electoral law abolishing separately-elected minority seats, which had been seen as giving an advantage to the MfoR.

Campaign

The governing Theodoran Spring formed an alliance, called "Spring+", with several minor parties, including the social-liberal Populares and the left-wing New Synaspismos. The minority interests Theodoran Tatar Advocacy Centre later joined the alliance after splitting from the MfoR. The Spring+ campaigned on economic issues, focusing on the popular welfare spending and anti-austerity policies that it had implemented while in government.

The main opposition Centre Union diverged from its usually low-key and technocratic campaign style, instead attacking the Spring directly and criticising the government for its sluggish economic growth and perpetual conflicts with Brussels. It promised industrial de-regulation and privatisation but vowed to maintain popular social spending programs.

The formerly-centrist MfoR ran a populist campaign, railing against the European Union's migration and asylum policies and perceived corruption. The Communists criticised the government for its "submissive" attitude towards Brussels, arguing that it had failed to deliver on its anti-austerity promises. The Optimates presented themselves as a voice of competence and moderation, filling, for some voters, the niche vacated by the Centre.

Debates were held on November 2nd and 7th, the former between all major party and alliance leaders and the latter including only Androulakis and Alexandrides. Voters ranked Androulakis' performance as the best in both debates, with 42% and 57% backing the Mesazon in the multi-party and head-to-head debates, respectively, while Optimates leader Mihalis Bouras was seen as performing well in the former, coming in second at 36%.

Polls throughout the campaign period showed the two major parties statistically tied at around 35%. The MfoR consistently declined from its high-water mark of over 30% to a low of only 6%. The Communists appeared poised to lose representation until the very end of the campaign, when their numbers recovered slightly. The Optimates appeared to gradually gain support, peaking at around 10%. The newspaper Basileia's final poll of the campaign period showed the Spring+ somewhat ahead of the Centre Union, the first poll to show a statistically signficant lead for either party since August.

Results

Turnout for the election was 91%, a record high, largely attributed to the implementation of mandatory voting. 72% of voters cast their ballots in the General electorate, and 28% in the Minorities electorate; the two electorates were thus allocated 22 and 8 seats, respectively. The governing Spring+ alliance won a solid victory, followed by the opposition Centre Union. The highly polarised vote distribution made the election the least multi-party in Theodoran history, with 80% of seats going to one of the two main parties.

Parties		Votes	%	Seats	±
	Spring+	62,183	44.81	14	±0
	Centre Union	42,505	30.65	10	+3
	Movement for our Rights	10,738	7.74	2	-2
	Optimates	10,026	7.23	2	+2
	New Union	9,924	7.15	2	-5
	Golden Dawn	3,313	2.39	0	±0
Total		138,689	100%	30	0
Eligible voters and turnout		151,963	91.26%

The Spring+ alliance, led by incumbent Mesazon (head of government) Stefanos Androulakis, won by a large margin, netting nearly 45% of the popular vote and 14 seats, ten in the General electorate and four in the Minorities electorate. Of these seats, twelve were allocated to the Theodoran Spring, one to the minority interests Theodoran Tatar Advocacy Centre, and one to the social-liberal Populares. While the Spring ballot line officially gained two seats, the alliance's seat count was unchanged from its member's combined results in the previous election.

The main opposition Centre Union, led by Referendary Sophia Alexandrides, came solidly in second place, winning ten seats, an increase of 3 from the previous election. It performed strongly in the General electorate, winning eight seats, but poorly in the Minorities electorate, where it won two.

The populist Movement for our Rights, which had polled strongly earlier in the year, even coming second in June's European Parliament elections, saw a significant decrease in its vote share, losing two seats. However, the party saw its best-ever performance among ethnic Greeks, and won one General seat as well as one Minorities seat. The New Union, formed by the Communist Party of Crimea and the hard-right Russian National Movement, saw a collapse in its vote share, losing five seats compared to its members' combined total in the previous election. It ultimately won two seats, one in each electorate, both of which went to the Communists. The centre-right Optimates, once a major party but having lost parliamentary representatio years before, re-entered the Senate, winning two seats in the General electorate.

Aftermath

Reactions

Domestic

• Stefanos Androulakis, leader of the Spring+ alliance, called the election "a resounding vote of confidence in our anti-austerity and people-centric project," and asserted the right to form a third consecutive government.
• Sophia Alexandrides, leader of the Centre Union, thanked voters for "rallying behind moderation" and delivering her party its "best result in over a decade." She later called for repeat elections, claiming that assembling a ruling majority would prove impossible.
• Anna Denkova, leader of the Movement for our Rights, blamed the new electoral system for her party's losses, arguing that "the establishment parties have conspired to deprive us of our representation." She ruled out a coalition with either the Centre or the Spring.
• Mihalis Bouras, leader of the Optimates, thanked voters for returning his party to parliament and expressed willingness to work with all parties except for the Communists.
• Vasily Ivanov, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Crimea and leader of the New Union alliance, declared that his party "remains the voice of Crimea's workers" and ruled out the CPC's participation in any "bourgeois alliance."

Government formation

Once results were finalised, Mesazon Stefanos Androulakis, leader of the Spring+ alliance, claimed victory, asserting his right to form a government. As the Spring+ alliance fell two seats short of a majority, it will require the support of either the Communists (New Union), the Optimates, or the MfoR, or the abstention of the Centre Union in the investiture vote to be held on November 20th. Androulakis announced that he would first seek the latter. However, Centre Union leader Sophia Alexandrides announced that her party would vote "no" on Androulakis' investiture and instead seek snap elections. With Androulakis having rejected a coalition with either the Communists or the MfoR, a Spring-Optimates alliance remains as the only mathematically feasible coalition not ruled out by either party, but wide ideological disparities between the two appear poised to stymie negotiations.

Appointment Recommendation Stefanos Androulakis (Theodoran Spring)
Ballot →		First ballot	Second ballot
Required majority →		16 out of 30 N	Simple Y
	Yes • Theodoran Spring (12) • Populares (1) • Theodoran Tatar Advocacy Centre (1)	14 / 30	14 / 30
	No • Centre Union (10) • Movement for our Rights (2) • Communist Party of Crimea (2)	14 / 30	12 / 30
	Abstain • Optimates (2)	2 / 30	2 / 30
	Absent • Communist Party of Crimea (2)	0 / 30	2 / 30
Sources