2020 United States Senate Elections (LOTF RP)

2020 United States Senate elections

November 3, 2020
36 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51 seats needed for a majority
Leader Robert Warrick Karel Volek Party Republican Democratic Leader since January 3, 2009 September 9, 2019 Leader's seat Indiana New York Last election 53 47 Current seats 52 48 Seats needed 2-3 Seats up 20 16
Results of the elections:      Democratic held      Republican held      No election Rectangular inset (Il.): both seats contested
Incumbent Majority Leader Robert Warrick Jr. Republican

The 2020 United States Senate elections will be held on November 3, 2020, with the 33 class 2 seats of the Senate contested in regular elections. The winners will be elected to six-year terms extending from January 3, 2021, to January 3, 2027. There will also be three special elections: one in each of Illinois, Ohio and Maryland. All were brought on by the early resignation of the incumbent Senators.

In the 2014 United States Senate elections (the last regularly scheduled elections for class 2 Senate seats), the Republicans won eight seats from the Democrats and gained a majority in the Senate, which they successfully defended in 2016 and 2018. Following the Republican defeat in the 2019 Texas U.S. Senate special election, Republicans hold 52 seats entering this election. Republicans will be defending 20 seats, while Democrats will be defending 16.

Democrats need to net a gain of three seats or two seats and the Vice-Presidency in the concurrent Presidential Election to win a majority.

Competitive Races

Competitive Republican held seats are expected to be Colorado, Ohio, Maine, Iowa and North Carolina. Georgia, Montana and Texas could also become competitive. Competitive Democratic held seats are expected to be in Alabama, Alaska, Michigan and New Hampshire. New Mexico, Minnesota and Virginia could also become competitive.

District	CPVI	Incumbent	Last result	Aggregator June 1, 2020	Tartalek May 11, 2020	Surveylance May 15, 2020	Precipice June 1, 2020	Stuyvesant May 13, 2020	Goldwater May 19, 2020	Winner
Alabama	R+14	Gordon Callahan	50.0% D	Tossup	Tilt R (Flip)	Tilt R (Flip)	Tilt R (Flip)		Tilt R (Flip)
Alaska	R+9	Francine Sullivan	49.1% D	Tossup	Tilt R (Flip)	Tossup	Tossup		Tossup
Arkansas	R+15	Unoccupied	56.5% R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Solid R		Safe R
Colorado	D+1	Clint Guerrera	48.2% R	Likely D (Flip)	Likely D (Flip)	Lean D (Flip)	Likely D (Flip)		Tilt D (Flip)
Georgia	R+5	Andrew Gardner	52.9% R	Tilt R	Lean R	Likely R	Tilt R		Likely R
Iowa	R+3	Unoccupied (retiring)	52.1% R	Tossup	Lean R	Tilt R	Tilt R		Likely R
Kansas	R+13	Kim Dunbar	53.1% R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Solid R		Safe R
Louisiana	R+11	Unoccupied (retiring)	55.9% R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R		Likely R
Maine	D+3	Agatha Cragin	68.5% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D (Flip)		Tossup
Michigan	D+1	Unoccupied (retiring)	54.6% D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D		Likely D
Minnesota	D+1	Levi Murphy (retiring)	53.2% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Solid D		Likely D
Montana	R+11	Unoccupied	57.9% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R		Likely R
New Hampshire	D+1	Christina Wynne (retiring)	51.5% D	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D		Tilt D
New Mexico	D+3	Unoccupied	55.6% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Solid D		Lean D
North Carolina	R+3	Unoccupied (retiring)	48.8% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Tossup	Tilt R		Lean R
Oregon	D+5	Frank Doyle (retiring)	55.7% D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Solid D		Safe D
Ohio (Special)	R+3	Unoccupied (retiring)	58.0% R	Tossup	Tilt D (Flip)	Tossup	Tilt R		Lean D (Flip)
Texas	R+8	Howard Frankston (retiring)	61.6% R	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R		Lean R
Virginia	D+1	Unoccupied	49.1% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Solid D		Lean D
Overall				Democratic - 47 Tossup - 6 Republican - 47	Democratic - 47 Tossup - 1 Republican - 52	Republican - 49 Tossup - 4 Democratic - 47	Republican - 51 Tossup - 1 Democratic - 48		Republican - 50 Tossup - 2 Democratic - 48	(Final Results)
District	2017 CPVI	Incumbent	Previous result	Aggregator	Tartalek	Surveylance	Precipice	Stuyvesant	Goldwater	Winner

Alabama

Alabama election

Nominee Gordon Callahan Christina Mudale Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator Gordon Callahan Democratic

Incumbent Democrat, Gordon Callahan was elected in a special in 2017, narrowly defeating the Republican nominee. Callahan is running for election to a full term. Callahan is uncontested for the Democratic nomination.

Former Covington County District Attorney, Christina Mudale is seeking the Republican nomination.

Alaska

Alaska election

Nominee TBD TBD Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator Francine Sullivan Democratic

Incumbent Democrat Senator Francine Sullivan will be running for re-election.

Illinois

Illinois (Regular)

Illinois (Regular) election

Nominee TBD TBD Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator (PlaceHolder) Democratic

Incumbent Democrat

Illinois (Special)

Illinois (Special) election

Nominee TBD TBD Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator (PlaceHolder) Democratic

One-term Senator Rebekah Sharansky announced on June 28, 2019 her resignation from the United States Senate, effectively immediately following a corruption investigation launched by the Department of Justice. Illinois Governor, (PLACEHOLDER), appointed (PLACEHOLDER) to replace Sharansky until a regular election could be held; (SENATE PLACEHOLDER) took their seat on July 4, 2019 but have not yet stated their intention to run in 2020 for a full term.

Iowa

Iowa election

Nominee TBD TBD Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator (NPC-Republican Republican

The incumbent Republican has announced they are not running for re-election.

Currently, no Republicans are running, although US Representative John Ruler is widely speculated as a candidate.

One Democrat has announced, being State Senator Simon Hawkins.

Kansas

Kansas election

Nominee Kimberly Dunbar TBD Party Republican Democratic (US)

Incumbent U.S. senator Kimberly Dunbar Republican (US)

Senator Dunbar won the republican nomination with no opposition

Maine

Maine election

Nominee TBD TBD Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator Agatha Cragin Republican

Incumbent Senator Agatha Cragin is running for re-election. She is being challenged for the Republican nomination by former First Lady and President of the Maine Senate Eliza LeBlanc Wolf.

Robert Pelletier is running for the Democratic nomination.

Massachusetts

Massachusetts election

Nominee John Lynskey Devin Docherty Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator Abigail Winthrop Democratic

Incumbent Democrat Abigail Winthrop lost the Democratic Nomination in the primary at this election.

Former Governor of Massachusetts, John Nathan Lynskey won the Democratic Nomination.

Attorney Devin Docherty (non-player Character) won the Republican Nomination. <graph>{"legends":[],"scales":[{"type":"time","name":"x","domain":{"data":"chart","field":"x"},"zero":false,"range":"width","nice":true},{"clamp":true,"type":"linear","name":"y","domain":{"data":"chart","field":"y"},"domainMin":0,"zero":false,"range":"height","nice":true},{"domain":{"data":"chart","field":"series"},"type":"ordinal","name":"color","range":["#3333ff","#e81b23",""]}],"version":2,"marks":[{"type":"group","marks":[{"properties":{"hover":{"stroke":{"value":"red"}},"update":{"stroke":{"scale":"color","field":"series"}},"enter":{"y":{"scale":"y","field":"y"},"x":{"scale":"x","field":"x"},"stroke":{"scale":"color","field":"series"},"interpolate":{"value":"bundle"},"strokeWidth":{"value":2}}},"type":"line"},{"properties":{"enter":{"y":{"scale":"y","field":"y"},"x":{"scale":"x","field":"x"},"size":{"value":49},"shape":"circle","fill":{"scale":"color","field":"series"}}},"type":"symbol"}],"from":{"data":"chart","transform":[{"groupby":["series"],"type":"facet"}]}}],"height":200,"axes":[{"type":"x","scale":"x","properties":{"title":{"fill":{"value":"#54595d"}},"grid":{"stroke":{"value":"#54595d"}},"ticks":{"stroke":{"value":"#54595d"}},"axis":{"strokeWidth":{"value":2},"stroke":{"value":"#54595d"}},"labels":{"align":{"value":"right"},"angle":{"value":-40},"fill":{"value":"#54595d"}}},"grid":false},{"type":"y","title":"% Support","scale":"y","properties":{"title":{"fill":{"value":"#54595d"}},"grid":{"stroke":{"value":"#54595d"}},"ticks":{"stroke":{"value":"#54595d"}},"axis":{"strokeWidth":{"value":2},"stroke":{"value":"#54595d"}},"labels":{"fill":{"value":"#54595d"}}},"grid":true}],"data":[{"format":{"parse":{"y":"number","x":"date"},"type":"json"},"name":"chart","values":[{"y":48,"series":"y1","x":"2020/01/01"},{"y":49,"series":"y1","x":"2020/01/08"},{"y":48.2,"series":"y1","x":"2020/01/15"},{"y":48.8,"series":"y1","x":"2020/01/22"},{"y":50.2,"series":"y1","x":"2020/01/29"},{"y":50.3,"series":"y1","x":"2020/02/05"},{"y":50.9,"series":"y1","x":"2020/02/12"},{"y":50.4,"series":"y1","x":"2020/02/19"},{"y":49.8,"series":"y1","x":"2020/02/26"},{"y":49.9,"series":"y1","x":"2020/03/04"},{"y":50.8,"series":"y1","x":"2020/03/11"},{"y":50.2,"series":"y1","x":"2020/03/18"},{"y":51.1,"series":"y1","x":"2020/03/25"},{"y":52.2,"series":"y1","x":"2020/04/01"},{"y":51.7,"series":"y1","x":"2020/04/08"},{"y":53.3,"series":"y1","x":"2020/04/15"},{"y":53.9,"series":"y1","x":"2020/04/22"},{"y":53.8,"series":"y1","x":"2020/04/29"},{"y":54.9,"series":"y1","x":"2020/05/04"},{"y":55.2,"series":"y1","x":"2020/05/11"},{"y":56,"series":"y1","x":"2020/05/21"},{"y":20.7,"series":"y2","x":"2020/01/01"},{"y":19.7,"series":"y2","x":"2020/01/08"},{"y":18.8,"series":"y2","x":"2020/01/15"},{"y":18.9,"series":"y2","x":"2020/01/22"},{"y":19.5,"series":"y2","x":"2020/01/29"},{"y":20.8,"series":"y2","x":"2020/02/05"},{"y":20.7,"series":"y2","x":"2020/02/12"},{"y":21.1,"series":"y2","x":"2020/02/19"},{"y":21,"series":"y2","x":"2020/02/26"},{"y":19.9,"series":"y2","x":"2020/03/04"},{"y":21.1,"series":"y2","x":"2020/03/11"},{"y":22.4,"series":"y2","x":"2020/03/18"},{"y":21.9,"series":"y2","x":"2020/03/25"},{"y":22.1,"series":"y2","x":"2020/04/01"},{"y":21.4,"series":"y2","x":"2020/04/08"},{"y":22.7,"series":"y2","x":"2020/04/15"},{"y":20.7,"series":"y2","x":"2020/04/22"},{"y":21.3,"series":"y2","x":"2020/04/29"},{"y":21.5,"series":"y2","x":"2020/05/04"},{"y":21.3,"series":"y2","x":"2020/05/11"},{"y":22.3,"series":"y2","x":"2020/05/21"}]}],"width":550}</graph>

Michigan

Michigan election

Nominee John Garfield III George Baxton Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator NPC Democrat Democratic

The Incumbent Democratic Senator announced their retirement in late 2019.

The Democratic nominee is Iraq War Veteran and Congressman for Michigan's 9th District John Garfield III.

The Republican nominee is former St. Clair Mayor and Congressman for Michigan's 10th District George Baxton.

Texas

Texas election

Nominee Harold Baines Crawford Clay Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator Howard Frankston Republican

Incumbent U.S. Senator from Texas, and Senate Majority Whip, Howard Frankston announced his retirement in October of 2019. His son, Joseph Frankston would go onto lose the primary to Congressman Crawford Clay.

Houston Mayor, Harold Baines won the Democratic Primary.

This election follows the 2019 special election which elected Senator Suraj Shah as Texas' first Democratic Senator since 1993.

Should Harold Baines win the 2020 election, it would mark the first time since 1961 that Texas was represented by two Democrats in the U.S. Senate.

2020 Texas U.S. Senate Republican Primary
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Crawford Clay	999,902	51.7%
	Republican	Joseph Frankston	934,145	48.3%
Total Votes			1,934,047