2024 Mel-akkan Vernal Equinox Election
The 2024 Mel-akkan Vernal Equinox Election were be held on 21st April 2024 to elect the members of the four commissions. Voters each cast four ballots, electing one member of each commission from each constituency, using the wikipedia:first-past-the-post method.
On a record-low turnout, voters re-elected the incumbent Progressive Party in a landslide, delivering Mel-akkam's first parliamentary majority since 2017. Progressive candidates won clean sweeps in the provinces of Mohenjo-daro and Dholavira, as well as their first-ever seat in the Shortugai Exclave. The Progressive Party ended up winning a commanding majority in the Social Commission, exactly half of the seats in the Economic and Judicial commissions, and a plurality in the Diplomatic Commission.
The main opposition Coalition of Independents was decisively defeated, losing both votes and seats. The Progressives' junior government partner, the Liberal Democratic Party, lost seats as well, and almost lost its third-place vote share to the Restoration Front, which lost votes compared to 2023 but maintained its seat count. The newly-formed New Liberals won almost 5% of the vote and one seat, but underperformed compared to its polling results. The single-province KDP saw no change in its seat count and vote share.
The elections were widely perceived as a return to Mel-akkam's era of Progressive dominance, following a few years of strong opposition showings. Commentators noted that the strong showing would likely drive increased factionalism within the PP. The LDP, perceived as one of the election's biggest losers, announced that they would withdraw from their alliance and coalition government with the Progressives, returning to the opposition.
Opinion Polling
2024
After Restoration Front
| Date | Polling firm | PP | LDP | KPL | RF | KDP | NL | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar | Dholavira Signboard | 45.3% | 19.2% | 20.0% | 9.4% | 0.2% | 6.3% | 26.1% |
| 3 Mar | Dholavira Signboard | 46.6% | 18.8% | 18.5% | 10.1% | 0.2% | 6.7% | 27.9% |
| 28 Mar | Dholavira Signboard | 46.8% | 18.9% | 18.7% | 10.0% | 0.2% | 5.0% | 27.9% |
| 18 Feb | Dholavira Signboard | 43.9% | 18.6% | 18.4% | 10.8% | 0.2% | 4.9% | 25.3% |
Before Restoration Front
| Date | Polling firm | PP | LDP | KPL | OPP | WRP | KDP | NL | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb | Dholavira Signboard | 43.9% | 18.6% | 18.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 0.2% | 4.9% | 25.3% |
| 8 Feb | Dholavira Signboard | 45.8% | 17.9% | 19.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 26.3% |
| 5 Feb | Dholavira Signboard | 46.7% | 18.6% | 16.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 0.3% | 3.9% | 28.1% |
| 28 Jan | Dholavira Signboard | 44.8% | 19.0% | 16.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 0.4% | 4.1% | 25.8% |
| 10 Jan | Dholavira Signboard | 51.1% | 19.1% | 18.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 32.0% |
2023
| Date | Polling firm | PP | LDP | KPL | OPP | WRP | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Dec | Dholavira Signboard | 44.6% | 19.3% | 19.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 25.3% |
| 12 Nov | Dholavira Signboard | 36.9% | 21.8% | 21.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 15.1% |
| 5 Nov | Dholavira Signboard | 35.5% | 23.0% | 19.4% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 12.5% |
Results
| Parties | Votes | % | Seats | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive | 470,384,535 | 47.2 | 22 | +3 | |
| Coalition | 174,401,046 | 17.5 | 5 | -2 | |
| LDP | 148,490,033 | 14.9 | 6 | -2 | |
| RF | 140,517,414 | 14.1 | 4 | ±0 | |
| NL | 47,835,715 | 4.8 | 1 | New | |
| KDP | 4,982,887 | 0.5 | 2 | ±0 | |
| KPP | 996,577 | 0.1 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Total | 249,144,351 | 100% | 40 | 0 | |
| Eligible voters and turnout | ~400,000,000 | 62.3% | |||