Lihnidosi general election, 2018
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350 seats in the National Assembly 176 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 73.42% ( 1.54%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Colors denote the winning party, on a constituency-by-constituency basis. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The Lihnidosi general election of 2018 took place on 12 October 2018. All 350 seats in the National Assembly were up for election under the first past the post electoral system. The governing Conservative-National Alliance, which was reelected in 2014 with a slim majority, lost its majority resulting in the first hung parliament since 1998.
With one hundred seventy-six seats needed for an absolute majority, the Conservative-National Alliance was operating with a small seven seat majority following the 2014 election. Polling taken in the months leading up to election day showed the Conservative-National Alliance performing worse than the party had four years prior. The main opposition, the Democratic Coalition, polled slightly behind that of the conservatives. The Democratic Coalition consistently polled higher than they had four years ago. Following the first leaders debate the Democratic Coalition appeared to pull ahead of the Conservative-National Alliance, with multiple polls taken during the following days showing the Democratic Coalition with a small single digit lead over the conservatives. The CNA retook the lead in the polls leading up to the final leaders debate a week before election day, and following the final debate the party consistently placed first in polls up to the day of the election.
Exit polling released following poll closings on election day showed the Conservative-National Alliance losing seats yet still keeping their majority. As the night progressed the exit polling was readjusted, and three hours after the polls closed several exit polls showed the Conservative-National Alliance losing their majority in the National Assembly. Official results released by the National Board of Elections the following day showed that the final results were closer than the polls had predicted, with the Conservative-National Alliance winning 39.58% of the vote and the Democratic Coalition winning 38.10%. The conservatives had lost twelve seats, putting them six seats away from a majority, while the Democratic Coalition gained eight seats, putting them thirty-nine seats away from a majority. The remaining 22.32% of the vote was won by four other minor parties whose seats totaled forty-three.
The days following the election reportedly saw Prime Minister Fotis Raptis consider the formation of a minority government without seeking to form a coalition with other parties in the National Assembly. Due to the CNA's position on the status of the monarchy, the Republican Party announced that they would refuse any attempt at negotiations to join a coalition or to support the CNA unless the party's position on a referendum on the status of the monarchy changed. The Centrist Union leader Lazaros Metaxas stated that, due to the CU's centrist ideals, "[the Centrist Union] will join no coalition with either the CNA or the DC." With the CNA needing six seats for a majority there was speculation early on that the CNA may attempt to agree to a confidence and supply deal with the Populist People's Party which held six seats. Several CNA MPs stated that they would oppose any type of agreement with the PPP. On 18 October 2018, Raptis announced a confidence and supply agreement with the PPP.
Electoral system and date
The National Assembly of Lihnidos operates on a first past the post system. During the election, each party may choose to run a candidate in any of the three hundred fifty constituencies. One representative is elected in each constituency through the first past the post system, in which the candidate with the most votes after voting has concluded is elected. A party that wins a majority of the seats in the National Assembly is able to form the Government after consultation with the Empress. If no party was able to win a majority of the seats during the election, parties may attempt to negotiate coalition agreements in order to form a government with a coalition majority or parties may attempt to form a minority government. During a hung national assembly, the Empress has the authority to dissolve the legislature and call for another general election if no party is able to properly form the Government.
Per the National Representation Act of 1926, the National Assembly was dissolved on the second Friday of July, July 13th, with the general election set for the second Friday of October, October 12th. The internal process employed by parties to choose their candidates officially began on July 16th and was officially concluded on August 10th. Following the general election of 2018, 14 October 2022 was set as the date for the next general election.
Voter eligibility
To be eligible to vote in the Lihnidosi general election, one must be:
- Registered with the National Board of Elections
- 18 years old on election day
- A Lihnidosi citizen
- Currently living in Lihnidos
- Not legally excluded from voting
The National Board of Elections accepts voter registrations up to two weeks before the date of the general election. On midnight at the end of the fifteenth day from the election, any registrations that have not been processed by the board will be deemed overdue. Overdue registrations will still be processed and the registrant added to the list of registered voters, but the registrant will not be able to vote in the upcoming election. Registrants whose registration papers were submitted past due will be notified of their ineligibility to vote in the upcoming election. Information regarding registered voters is sent to the each constituency based on the address a registrant put on their registration papers. Registered voters are only able to vote one time in the constituency that they registered under on their registration papers.
Timetable
| 13 July | Dissolution of the National Assembly |
| 16 July | Party process to choose candidates begins |
| 10 August | Last day for official candidates to submit campaign papers to the National Board of Elections |
| 27 September | Last day to register to vote and request a postal vote |
| 5 October | Final debate |
| 12 October | Election day |
| 19 October | New National Assembly is sworn-in |
| 26 October | State Opening of the National Assembly |
Parties
By the 16 July deadline for parties to be recognized by the National Board of Elections only six parties had been cleared to run candidates. Unlike the 2014 general election where the Republican Party had been recognized as an official party and permitted to stand candidates, no new parties were recognized in 2018. There had been speculation that the National Board of Elections would remove the Republican Party from its list of official parties, ending its ability to stand candidates under a unified body. Rumors of a push by the conservative leadership for the Republican Party to be decertified arose following the announcement by government prosecutors that Republican Party leader Panagiotakis Xanthopoulos had accepted illegal campaign contributions from Vannois. Xanthopoulos's subsequent arrest and removal by the Republican Party as leader ramped up speculation that the party may soon be decertified despite the adamant denial from republican leadership that no other member of the party was aware of Xanthopoulos's dealings with the Vannoisian government.
- Conservative-National Alliance: The CNA, led by Prime Minister Fotis Raptis, had led the government since 2010, having been led by Lycaon Buros for four years prior beginning in 2006. The party has gradually seen its majority shrink since 2010 when Raptis took control of the party, and he has faced calls for his resignation in the past due to poor election performance.
- Democratic Coalition: The DC, led by the leader of the opposition Fania Zarou, has been the second largest party in the National Assembly since 2006 when it lost its majority. The DC has been gaining traction since its large defeat in 2006, regaining many seats that had been lost previously. The party has been slowly moving further left, aligning with the CPS on some issues while still having a moderate wing of the party.
- Coalition of Progressive Socialists: Having been the third party to be recognize by the NBE, the Coalition of Progressive Socialists has consistently been the third largest party in Lihnidos. Having moved further to the left under leader Christos Mikelakos, the party has been criticized by many on the right as too radical. Despite their leftward shift, the party has been long considered the closest ally to the DC in the National Assembly and a likely coalition partner were the DC to fall short of a majority with the CPS closing the gap.
- Centrist Union: Led by Lazaros Metaxas since 2009, the Centrist Union continues to keep its platform a combination of left and right wing policies. Formed in 2003 and recognized as a party in 2004, the party has refused to consider a coalition with any party in order to prevent being seen as sympathetic to the left or right-wing.
- Republican Party: The newest party in Lihnidosi politics, the Republican party has had a tumultuous start. Led by Darrion Rondas, the party hopes to see an end to the monarchy and an expansion of the legislature to include more seats or an additional house. The party has been overshadowed by a scandal started by its previous leader Panagiotakis Xanthopoulos, who was found to have accepted foreign campaign donations from Vannois.
- Populist People's Party: Led by Vlassis Charalambos, the Populist People's Party was formed in 2007 and recognized in 2008 as an official party. Having been the smallest party in the National Assembly since 2010 when the party won its first seat, it has largely been considered irrelevant in national politics. The party has been described by those on the left as "far-right" despite shifting slightly to the left since its formation. The party seeks to be the right-wing alternative to the CNA and has succeeded in siphoning off a small percentage of its voters.
Candidates
In total, 1,006 candidates stood for election in the 2018 general election, down from the 1,157 who stood in the 2014 election. The Conservative-National Alliance and Democratic Coalition stood candidates in all 350 constituencies like had been done four years prior in 2014. The Centrist Union stood 227 candidates, a decrease from the 350 that stood in 2014. The Coalition of Progressive Socialists stood candidates in thirty constituencies, down from the forty-seven that stood in 2014. The Republican Party contested ten constituencies, down from twenty-one in 2014. The Populist People's Party stood candidates in ten constituencies, down from the thirty-nine they had contested in 2014.
Twenty-nine independent candidates stood in constituencies across the country after failing to have the minor parties they supported recognized by the National Board of Elections. No independent candidates won election.
Selection Process
Parties had twenty-five days between 16 July and 10 August to select the candidates that would be standing in chosen constituencies. The Conservative-National Alliance accepted applications to run in 201 constituencies that were deemed competitive or that the party sought to keep control of following the retirement of the incumbent. The remaining 149 constituencies were represented by the incumbent candidate. The Democratic Coalition took the same approach, accepting applications for candidates in 229 constituencies while selecting the incumbent to run in 121. The Centrist Union ran all of its eleven incumbents while accepting applications for candidates in 216 other constituencies. The Coalition of Progressive Socialists, Republican Party, and Populist People's Party also ran all of their incumbents, however the party leadership opted to select candidates to run in constituencies deemed competitive while not running candidates in seats deemed safe for other parties. The Coalition of Progressive Socialists ran candidates in thirteen additional constituencies, while the Republican Party ran three, and the Populist People's Party ran six.
Campaign
Background
Leading up to and following the dissolution of the National Assembly polling showed the Conservative-National Alliance performing worse than the party had four years prior. This polling was backed up by one by-election that was held in December 2017. Following the death of CNA Deputy Raphail Mingas who was Deputy for Messenia's 6th constituency, a by-election was held that resulted in much closer results than anticipated. The CNA candidate Helle Eliopoulou won the election by a margin of 1.9%. Mingas last won the constituency in 2010 by a margin of 5.4%. The constituency later flipped to the Democratic Coalition during the general election, raising the number of constituencies held by the DC in Messenia to two. Other by-elections held prior to the Messenia 6 by-election showed similar results.
Provincial Council elections held in 2016 saw increased support for the Democratic Coalition in Kilkis, Serres, Corinthia, Messenia, and Preveza. Despite higher enthusiasm and turnout for Democratic Coalition candidates in the provincial elections, the DC failed to gain control of any new provincial councils. Increased support for the Democratic Coalition in Messenia and Preveza, two provinces considered to be safe territory for the Conservative-National Alliance, resulted in higher spending by the party during the general election in those areas.
Party campaigns
Conservative-National Alliance
The Conservative-National Alliance refused to moderate their platform in 2018 after being accused of having an "unreasonable, irresponsible, and radical" platform by Democratic Coalition Leader Fania Zarou in 2014. Having cut taxes for the middle and upper class in 2015 the party promised no new taxes. The promise drew criticism from opposition parties who cited the increasing budget deficits since the tax cut in 2015 as a reason that the cuts should be partially repealed. The platform promised that the party would continue to eliminate regulations on businesses and tailor existing regulation to be more reasonable. A deregulation of the healthcare industry was a key focus in the platform, with the party promising that a deregulation would allow private companies to be involved in the industry, which would increase competition and result in lower costs. There was no mention of increased rights for homosexuals, an omission which drew wide criticism from the opposition. The Leader of the Coalition of Progressive Socialists described Lihnidos's laws regarding LGBT individuals as "backwards" and "some of the most discriminatory laws in Belisaria." The party platform also left out any mention of abortion or legalization of recreational drugs. Prime Minister and Leader of the Conservative-National Alliance Fotis Raptis, in an interview with journalists from the Arcadia Daily, said that laws would not be relaxed on either. Raptis also signaled the party's possible discontent with the Belisarian Community's free movement agreement, saying that immigration and border reform may be necessary. Raptis had made the same comments four years prior, but the party did not make any public moves to change immigration law or border security. The platform continued to promise an increase in the defense budget.
Provincial council elections in 2016 showed a decrease in support for the party in some conservative-leaning provinces. Preveza saw two council seats flipped from the CNA to the Democratic Coalition, and there was increased support for DC candidates in Messenia. Increased support for democratic candidates in traditionally conservative areas prompted the party to increase spending on races in those areas as polling showed that conservative candidates were only polling slightly ahead of democratic candidates, and in some cases polling showed democratic candidates polling ahead. The polling trend was present across the country, as the party consistently polled lower than it had four years prior. Poor performance during the first debate saw by the Prime Minister saw the CNA begin to poll behind the DC consistently for two weeks before again taking the lead. The Prime Minister had faced accusations of poor performance on the campaign trail in 2010 and 2014. He was often criticized as a poor campaigner who had trouble getting his message across.
The party continued to run candidates in all 350 constituencies. The party campaigned heavily in areas around the capital and in western provinces where incumbents were seen to be most vulnerable. Significant resources were were spent campaigning against Republican Party incumbents who had seen a sharp drop in the polls following the arrest of the previous Republican Party Leader Panagiotakis Xanthopoulos for violations of campaign finance law.
Democratic Coalition
The Democratic Coalition kept many of the policies that had been included in its platform in 2014. The party promised a decrease in healthcare costs and increased access to welfare programs for those who were less fortunate. This would be accomplished by an increase in spending on social programs and more spending on healthcare by the government. Education reform was also an important priority for the party, which would aim to decrease university costs and provide more money for student grants. This would be accomplished by rolling back tax cuts implemented by the conservative government in 2015. The party also promised expanded rights for homosexuals, expanded access to abortion, criminal justice reform, immigration reform, and a crackdown on discrimination. Mandatory voting, while not included in the party platform, was floated as a suggestion by Democratic Coalition Leader Fania Zarou during the first debate in Channel 3. The party's foreign policy offered greater cooperation with Lihnidos's neighbors, specifically members of the Belisarian Community, limiting foreign intervention, and an opposition to any increase in military spending while withdrawing most troops stationed abroad.
The party faced a challenge as it attempted to try and appeal to both moderate conservative voters and socialist-leaning voters. As many of the party's incumbents in cities were under attack by the Coalition of Progressive Socialists, the party recognized that in order to retain voters in some areas it would need to promote more progressive policies than it had four years prior. Several democratic incumbents, when asked how they would respond to attacks from socialist candidates, doubled down on their support for progressive policies. This raised questions by political analysts as to how the party would appeal to both groups in their platform. Few changes in the platform from 2010 indicated that the party made the decision to appeal to their base in order to prevent the loss of seats.
The party ran candidates in all 350 constituencies as it had done for the past two general elections. The party focused their campaign efforts in several vulnerable constituencies across the country. Substantial funds were spent in urban areas as the party attempted to defend a challenge from the left by the Coalition of Progressive Socialists who were attempting to unseat a number of Democratic Coalition incumbents. These efforts were primarily focused on constituencies in Ikaria and Xanthi. Having seen an opportunity following results of the provincial council elections in 2016, the party leadership had renewed focus on what had previously been seen as safe conservative constituencies. Increased support for Democratic Coalition candidates during the provincial council elections had the party increase spending for candidates in Messenia and Preveza. Democratic Coalition Chairman Ermis Grivas told Channel 3 News that flipping constituencies in traditionally conservative areas was part of their plan to regain a majority in the National Assembly, specifically after the results from the 2016 elections.
Coalition of Progressive Socialists
The Coalition of Progressive Socialists continued to focus on domestic issues revolving around social and economic issues. Many candidates ran on a platform of ending economic inequality and improving social programs. The party promised a complete move to universal healthcare, insisting that such a move would end high healthcare costs and would allow everyone access to medical care. Welfare and other social programs were promised additional funding and less restrictions on who would qualify. University students were promised an end to high university tuition and debt forgiveness on all university-related loans. In order to solve income inequality and budgetary problems the party's platform proposed increased taxes on the top ten percent of earners, higher corporate tax rates and expanding business regulations, and cutting the defense budget. The party also promised increasing the national minimum wage. Other policies included the expansion of rights for homosexuals, easier access to abortion, the abolition of the death penalty, legalization of recreational drugs, and reforming the criminal justice system. Once again the party did not lay out any extensive foreign policy, instead giving lackluster support for the Belisarian Community, but also proposing increasing relations with nations in northern Belisaria.
The coalition campaigned predominantly against the Democratic Coalition, the party which it sought to gain seats from. The party targeted young, university-age voters, a significant minority in the democratic voting base. Having successfully unseated three democratic deputies in the previous general election, the party attempted to continue its victories by campaigning in cities and city outskirts where support for left-wing parties was high. Socialist candidates routinely described Democratic Coalition candidates as centrist and too moderate while accusing democratic incumbents of not standing up to the conservative government and standing for the principles they were elected on.
The party stood candidates in thirty constituencies around the country, with a majority of those candidates running for election in cities or other largely urban areas. Many candidates refused to take campaign contributions from businesses or other organizations, preferring to only accept small money donations from their supporters. Several candidates also received money from the national party. The party primarily targeted constituencies held by members of the Democratic Coalition, drawing the usual critique by left-wing analysts and supporters that the party ran the risk of splitting the left-wing vote and losing constituencies to the Conservative-National Alliance. This criticism and fear was often rejected by the party's leadership who defended their position by saying they try to stand candidates for election in constituencies where there is little conservative support.
Centrist Union
The Centrist Union kept much of its platform from 2014. The party supported the legalization of gay marriage and the legalization of abortion in special cases. Party leader Lazaros Metaxas stated in a televised interview on LBC that he personally supported the legalization of recreational use of marijuana, however there was no mention of that policy on the party's website. The platform continued to push for a decrease in drug and healthcare costs while encouraging increased spending on healthcare without an increase in taxes. Many Centrist Union candidates continued to push conservative economics. The party dropped from its platform a promise to decrease university costs and lower the voting age.
The union maintained, as it had four years prior, that it would not enter coalitions or agreements with any other party in the National Assembly. This was seen as an attempt to keep its neutrality and position in the legislature as a centrist party that does not overly sympathize with the left or right-wing parties. Metaxas, during the first leader debate on Channel 3, said that he, "hoped the Centrist Union could be a mediator between the conservatives and the democrats," and that the party could, "force the left and the right to work together to come up with solutions that would benefit everyone."
The party stood candidates in 227 constituencies in 2018. This resulted in the party having the third most candidates running for election. Four years prior the party had run candidates in all 350 constituencies. The decrease was thought to be an attempt in improving the party's financial position and its ability to increase funding to candidates. The party was unable to provide much funding to candidates in 2014, as the leadership focused spending on areas that were seen as vulnerable. This resulted in many candidates having to rely on small money donations from supporters within their constituencies. The decrease in candidates did not have the desired effect however, as the party continued to spend money on incumbent races and areas that were seen as possible pick-ups for the party. The party's lack of funding to candidates resulted in a number of candidates expressing their discontent with the national party, as they claimed that the party had promised some amount of funding to their campaigns.
Republican Party
The Republican Party, encouraged by its performance during its first general election in 2014, continued to push democratic reforms. The main focus for republican candidates during campaigning was a referendum on the status of the monarchy in Lihnidos. The talking points mimicked those of four years prior, with an emphasis on giving more power to the citizenry and a chance to do away with an outdated form of government. Candidates insisted that a people's vote was required in order to do away with the tyranny of the monarchy. The rhetoric during the 2018 campaign stood in stark contrast to the rhetoric in 2014. Several republican candidates were more open and willing in attacking the nobility and the monarch in particular. Suspected to be a result of the anger over the arrest of previous Republican Party Leader Panagiotakis Xanthopoulos, the rhetoric saw one candidate, Kostas Laganas, who was running to be the deputy for Pieria 15, to be charged by prosecutors for violating lèse-majesté laws after making disparaging remarks about the empress. Laganas's candidacy was considered by many to be an insult to the monarch prior to the comments, as he stood for election in the empress's constituency which was seen as a safe seat for the incumbent.
The calls for a presidential republic was accompanied by proposals for a second house of parliament. Republican Party Leader Darrion Rondas announced during a campaign speech that the party would push for the inclusion of an upper house in the legislature should democratic reforms begin. The proposal was accompanied by a suggestion for an increase in the powers of provincial councils and an expansion of the number of councilors to be elected in each province.
The party's platform remained the same as four years prior in most other areas. The party sought to lower taxes, decrease business regulation, legalize of gay marriage, increase military spending, and leave the Belisarian Community. The biggest change in the platform was a promise to push for the legalization of the recreational use of marijuana. The party struggled to differentiate itself from the economic policies of the Conservative-National Alliance as its economic policy remained largely the same. The party's decision to adopt an increasingly left-wing social policy was seen as an attempt to attract more centrist voters who preferred conservative economic policy but increased social freedoms.
The party was plagued by negative press and increased scrutiny following the March arrest of Panagiotakis Xanthopoulos. There was speculation following the arrest and revelation that the leader had accepted illegal campaign contributions from foreign nationals in Vannois that the party would be decertified as an officially recognized party. The National Board of Elections never took action against the party. Following an investigation by the board and the Ministry of Justice, it was found that Xanthopoulos and three other individuals had acted without the knowledge of other party leadership. Despite the findings, there were persistent calls by politicians from both sides of the political spectrum to have the party decertified. The party's fundraising was negatively impacted by the scandal and the loss of funds was blamed on the party standing candidates in ten constituencies opposed to the twenty-one in 2014.
Populist People's Party
The Populist People's Party attempted to soften its foreign policy after being criticized as extreme four years prior. The party still sought Lihnidos's exit from the Belisarian Community, which populist leader Vlassis Charalambos described as a, "supranational organization that placed decision making in the hands of unelected bureaucrats." Charalambos insisted that an exit from the Belisarian Community would allow Lihnidos to make "fair and mutually beneficial" trade deals, as well as remove Lihnidos from the "constant peril" of the BC's defensive agreements. The party removed mention of expelling all foreign troops and withdrawing all Lihnidosi troops from foreign countries, a proposal which had previously been criticized as isolationist.
The party saw a shift in its domestic policy, removing mentions of increased taxes. The party's platform kept a focus on an increase in spending on healthcare and social programs, however instead of being funded by an increase in tax revenue the party suggested a readjustment of military spending, a decrease in foreign aid, and eliminating the payments being made to the Belisarian Community. The party's platform dropped the mention of an increase in military spending that it had had in 2014. Several populist candidates campaigned on a reduction in immigration and Lihnidos's exit from the BC's free movement agreement regardless of the nation's status in the organization. Populist candidate Daphne Kairi who stood for election in Messenia 3 was widely criticized by both conservative and democratic politicians after asking a group of supporters why Lihnidos would, "want to accept uneducated and unskilled immigrants from Scipia," who would, "only raise the crime rate and take resources from deserving native Lihnidosi." The comments drew parallels with 2014 when the party removed a proposal from its website that suggested limiting immigration from "underdeveloped nations." Despite the wide criticism, the party leadership refused to condemn the comments or the candidate.
The party focused on holding seats it had won in previous general elections as the conservatives stepped up their attempts to take seats from the party. The majority of the party's funding went to incumbents who were defending their seat, while some funding also went to six candidates in other constituencies. The conservative's increased attempts to unseat populist incumbents was attributed to the decrease in candidates run by the party. The ten candidates that the party stood for election was a large decrease from the thirty-nine candidates that it stood in 2014.
Debates
Following the traditional format for debates LBC and Channel 3 each hosted a leaders debate. Following the elimination of the five percent polling threshold in 2014 all leaders from recognized parties were invited. The first debate was held on 28 August at the University of Arcadia and was televised by Channel 3. Leaders from all six recognized political parties attended the debate. The second official debate was held on 5 October at Aigis University. Republican Party leader Darrion Rondas did not attend this debate, citing unfair treatment at the first debate following persistent questions about his party's financing and the arrest of previous RP leader Panagiotakis Xanthopoulos.
Prior to the first debate the Conservative-National Alliance held a consistent lead by one to three percentage points. The average of the five most recent polls prior to the debate placed the CNA at 40.8%, followed by the DC with 38%, the CU with 7.8%, the CPS with 7.2%, the PPP with 4.2%, and the RP with 2%. The debate was moderated by Channel 3 hosts Eleftherios Nicolos and Christiana Perri. Questions focused on the economic, trade, social, and foreign policy. Following the completion of the debate there was a general consensus that Democratic Coalition leader Fania Zarou had had the best performance of the night. Prime Minister Raptis was on the defense throughout much of the debate, having to defend from both the left and the right. During the few times the prime minister attempted to go on the attack his assertions were easily dismissed by his rivals, making him appear ineffective. Many news reports the day after the debate characterized him as appearing dazed and unprepared. Polling following the debate shifted in favor of the Democratic Coalition, with the party polling above the CNA for several weeks after. The CNA began to poll above the DC again shortly before the second debate.
The second leaders debate was held on 5 October at Aigis University. This time hosted by LBC, Lysandra Duka and Lavrentis Makos were the moderators. Much like the first debate the majority of the questions were about economic, trade, social, and foreign policy. Only five leaders attended the LBC debate, as Republican Party leader Darrion Rondas refused to attend. Rondas characterized the questions asked about his party and him personally as offensive and irrelevant, many of which had to do with the revelation that the previous republican leader had accepted illegal campaign contributions from Vannoisian individuals with ties to the government. Rondas refused to send a surrogate to the debate. Having been criticized extensively for his performance at the first debate, Prime Minister Raptis appeared more prepared and put Zarou in a defensive position for portions of the debate. Polling indicated that voters saw no clear winner in the debate, as both Raptis and Zarou were seen as having a good performance. Raptis's performance at the second debate seemed to reassure CNA voters, as the party consistently polled in first place following 5 October.
Ratings for both debates were lower than expected. The first debate was viewed by an estimated 22 million individuals while the second was viewed by an estimated 26 million. Both debates had a smaller audience than the 2014 debates, which had 28 million and 42 million viewers. The exit poll performed by independent polling firms Palmas, Alca, and Metris found that 43% of voters took the debates into account when casting their vote, up from 39% in 2014.
| Lihnidosi general election debates, 2018 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Organisers | Venue | P Present S Surrogate NI Non-invitee A Absent invitee | |||||||
| Conservative-National Alliance | Democratic Coalition | Coalition of Progressive Socialists | Centrist Union | Populist People's Party | Republican Party | |||||
| 28 August | Channel 3 | University of Arcadia | P Raptis |
P Zarou |
P Mikelakos |
P Metaxas |
P Charalambos |
P Rondas | ||
| 5 October | LBC | Aigis University | P Raptis |
P Zarou |
P Mikelakos |
P Metaxas |
P Charalambos |
A | ||
Polling
| Fieldwork date | Polling firm |  CNA |
 DC |
 CPS |
 CU |
 PPP |
 RP |
Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 October 2018 | General election results | 39.55 | 38.03 | 7.68 | 7.29 | 4.59 | 2.58 | 1.52 | |
| 10-11 October | GPO | 37 | 39 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | |
| 8-10 October | NPI/UP | 41 | 38 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |
| 6-8 October | Metris | 41 | 39 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| 5-6 October | AD | 43 | 39 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | |
| 5 October | Five-way Leaders Debate between Fotis Raptis, Fania Zarou, Christos Mikelakos, Lazaros Metaxas and Vlassis Charalambos held on LBC | ||||||||
| 3-5 October | Aigis University | 41 | 40 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2-3 October | LBC | 41 | 39 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| 1-2 October | Channel 3 Research | 42 | 39 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3 | |
| 28-30 September | LiVoice | 43 | 39 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 4 | |
| 25-28 September | Alca | 43 | 40 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| 23-25 September | Palmas | 42 | 40 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| 21-22 September | Theta 21 Media Group | 43 | 39 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | |
| 18-20 September | LDI/Metris | 41 | 40 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 16-18 September | AD | 41 | 39 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 14-17 September | GPO | 41 | 40 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| 11-13 September | Metris | 40 | 40 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| 9-10 September | LiVoice | 40 | 41 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 7-10 September | NPI/UP | 40 | 40 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 6-8 September | University of Arcadia | 39 | 40 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4-7 September | Alca | 38 | 40 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3-5 September | Aigis University | 38 | 41 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3 | |
| 2-3 September | LBC | 37 | 42 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | |
| 1-3 September | GPO | 37 | 43 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 6 | |
| 29-31 August | Argyris Analysis | 37 | 41 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4 | |
| 29-30 August | Theta 21 Media Group | 38 | 41 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3 | |
| 28-29 August | United Belisaria | 40 | 40 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 28 August | Six-way Leaders Debate between Fotis Raptis, Fania Zarou, Christos Mikelakos, Lazaros Metaxas, Darrion Rondas and Vlassis Charalambos held on Channel 3 | ||||||||
| 27-28 August | ProRass/Palmas | 43 | 37 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 6 | |
| 25-27 August | Metris | 40 | 38 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |
| 23-26 August | University of Arcadia | 40 | 39 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 22-24 August | Alca | 41 | 38 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| 21-22 August | AD | 40 | 38 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |
| 19-21 August | LBC | 41 | 39 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |
| 17-20 August | LiVoice | 42 | 39 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| 15-17 August | Channel 3 Research | 41 | 39 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |
| 14-15 August | GPO | 40 | 39 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 13-15 August | NPI/UP | 41 | 38 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | |
| 11-14 August | University of Naxegion | 38 | 40 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| 10-13 August | Argyris Analysis | 44 | 38 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
| 8-10 August | Palmas | 40 | 39 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 6-9 August | LDI/Metris | 39 | 38 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 5-7 August | United Belisaria | 38 | 39 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2-4 August | Alca | 42 | 39 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | |
| 1-3 August | Metris | 39 | 39 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| 30-31 July | LBC | 41 | 40 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 26-28 July | AD | 40 | 39 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 23-24 July | Channel 3 Research | 41 | 39 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |
| 22-23 July | ProRass/Palmas | 43 | 38 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| 21-23 July | Theta21 Media Group | 41 | 38 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3 | |
| 18-19 July | GPO | 39 | 40 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 17-18 July | LBC | 40 | 38 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| 16-18 July | University of Arcadia | 39 | 39 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 15-18 July | NPI/UP | 39 | 38 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 15-17 July | Metris | 40 | 37 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | |
| 13-15 July | Palmas | 38 | 38 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0 | |
| 13 July | National Assembly is dissolved | ||||||||
Predictions prior to the vote
One week prior to the vote several polling firms, publications, and media corporations released predictions of the number of seats each party would win following the election. The predictions were based on polling done by their respective organizations, resulting in a range of predictions for the parties. The following table lists five predictions from polling firms Metrix, GPO, and Palmas, the state broadcaster, LBC, and a newspaper published for capital residents, Arcadia Daily.
| Parties | Metris as of 5 October 2018 |
GPO as of 5 October 2018 |
Arcadia Daily as of 5 October 2018 |
LBC as of 5 October 2018 |
Palmas as of 3 October 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative-National Alliance | 180
|
169
|
176
|
179
|
177
| |
| Democratic Coalition | 135
|
140
|
139
|
130
|
133
| |
| Coalition of Progressive Socialists | 18
|
20
|
16
|
22
|
19
| |
| Centrist Union | 11
|
12
|
16
|
14
|
12
| |
| Populist People's Party | 4
|
5
|
3
|
4
|
6
| |
| Republican Party | 2
|
3
|
0
|
1
|
3
| |
| Independent | 0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
| |
| Overall result (probability) | Conservative-National majority (73%) |
Hung parliament |
Conservative-National majority (54%) |
Conservative-National majority (61%) |
Conservative-National majority (55%) | |
Exit poll
Independent polling firms Palmas, Alca, and Metris performed an exit poll on the behalf of LBC and Channel 3 that was released at the time of poll closings across the nation at 9 pm. The poll predicted that the Conservative-National Alliance would lose seats but retain its majority by one seat. The poll showed little movement in other parties, with the Coalition of Progressive Socialists being the party to gain the most seats. Following results being reported in several eastern constituencies, primarily in the provinces of Boeotia, Serres, and Kilkis, it became apparent that the exit poll had been inaccurate in its measure of support for the Democratic Coalition. Actual results saw the Conservative-National Alliance lose its majority and Republican Party lose seats, while the Democratic Coalition and several smaller parties gained seats.
| Parties | Seats | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative-National Alliance | 176 | 6
| |
| Democratic Coalition | 132 |  3
| |
| Coalition of Progressive Socialists | 22 | 5
| |
| Centrist Union | 11 | 
| |
| Populist People's Party | 5 | 1
| |
| Republican Party | 4 | 3
| |
| Conservative-National majority of 1 | |||
Election results
After all 350 constituencies had been declared, the results were:
| Party | Leader | Deputies | Votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Of total | Of total | |||||||
| Conservative-National Alliance | Fotis Raptis | 170 | 48.57% | 170 / 350
|
13,227,835 | 39.55% | 39.55% | |
| Democratic Coalition | Fania Zarou | 137 | 39.14% | 137 / 350
|
12,719,458 | 38.03% | 38.03% | |
| Coalition of Progressive Socialists | Christos Mikelakos | 19 | 5.43% | 19 / 350
|
2,568,642 | 7.68% | 7.68% | |
| Centrist Union | Lazaros Metaxas | 13 | 3.71% | 13 / 350
|
2,438,203 | 7.29% | 7.29% | |
| Populist People's Party | Vlassis Charalambos | 6 | 1.71% | 6 / 350
|
1,535,165 | 4.59% | 4.59% | |
| Republican Party | Darrion Rondas | 5 | 1.43% | 5 / 350
|
862,903 | 2.58% | 2.58% | |
| Independent | n/a | 0 | 0.00% | 0 / 350
|
93,648 | .28% | .28% | |
Seats that switched parties
|
|
Aftermath and analysis
The Conservative-National Alliance saw a drop in support from the previous general election, making it the third general election in a row that saw the party lose support from the previous election. The Democratic Coalition's support grew from the previous general election, raising its seat total to its highest point since the 2002 general election. The Coalition of Progressive Socialists, Centrist Union, and Populist People's Party each received their highest vote totals since the creation of the parties. The Republican Party's support was almost halved, a result that was widely expected following the revelation in March that the previous RP leader had accepted illegal campaign contributions from individuals connected to the Vannoisian government.
Analysis of the results showed that a slight decrease in voter turnout hurt the CNA, as did the increased support for the PPP. Voters shifting from the CNA, which is felt by some to be too moderate, to the PPP has caused the CNA vote share to suffer during the last two elections. The shift to the PPP, as well as a general lack of enthusiasm for CNA voters, was believed to be the driving factor in the continued drop in support for the party. CNA leaders had hoped that the scandal-ridden Republican Party, a majority of whose voters identify as right-wing and had split from the CNA following the creation of the party, would lead RP voters to vote for CNA candidates. This expectation did not occur, however, as many RP voters from 2014 stayed home or voted for other parties. It is believed that 2014 RP voters moving to other smaller parties or the Democratic Coalition cost the CNA an estimated five to seven seats.
The poor showing for the Conservatives for a third election in a row prompted quick calls for the resignation of Prime Minister and Leader of the Conservative-National Alliance Fotis Raptis. Early on election night, when it became obvious that the party would lose seats, several deputies announced on television that they had lost confidence in Raptis's leadership. Following the revelation that the CNA would lose its majority in the National Assembly the Secretary of State for Education and Innovation Galyn Moros also said that he did not see how Raptis could continue with support from the party.
The weeks following the election saw the prime minister and his team attempt to form confidence and supply agreements with both the Centrist Union and the Populist People's Party. Centrist Union leader Lazaros Metaxas announced shortly after the election that the CU would not agree to any confidence and supply or coalition agreement with any party. Six seats short of a majority, the CNA was left with attempting to form an agreement with the Populist People's Party which held six seats. On 18 October 2018 Raptis announced an agreement between the CNA and the PPP. It was not until after the agreement had been signed however that some members of the Raptis Cabinet announced their opposition to the deal. The disagreements between cabinet members and the prime minister led to five cabinet members being replaced in the new administration.
The details of the agreement with the Populist People's Party was not immediately released to the public. Many pro-Belisarian Community deputies expressed their concern over the agreement. The populist opposition to the Belisarian Community caused many to wonder if the conservative leadership had made any concessions in regards to BC policy. The PPP's positions on defense spending, healthcare, and social programs was also partially at odds with the conservative's policies. The details of the deal were eventually released, revealing that there was no mention of the Belisarian Community, defense spending, or social programs.