1939 Saren general election

1939 Saren general election

August 19, 1939 (1939-08-19)
All 698 seats in the House of Commons 350 seats are needed for a majority 40 (of the 80) elected seats in the Senate
Turnout	94.72%
First party Second party   Leader Jose Valedia Ruiz Mohammad Linus Salazar Party Conservative Labour Leader since 7 February 1937 29 October 1936 Leader's seat Palma (ES) Blida (VA) Seats won 337 322 Seat change 79 91 Popular vote 141,910,005 138,595,683 Percentage 39.82% 38.89% Swing 4.15% 5.80% TPP 50.11% 49.89% TPP Swing 4.98 4.98   Third party Fourth party   Leader Leonna Reyes Paris Negasi Anan Party Socialist National Country Leader since 7 December 1930 4 May 1933 Leader's seat Ariana (TU) Holeta (AB) Seats won 20 8 Seat change 5 2 Popular vote 23,770,460 20,955,068 Percentage 6.67% 5.88% Swing 0.23% 0.93%
Prime Minister before election Jose Valedia Ruiz Conservative Elected Prime Minister Jose Valedia Ruiz Conservative

The 1939 Saren General Election was held on August 19, 1939 to elect members of the 128th Parliament of Sarenium. As the result of the election was a hung Parliament, Jose Valedia Ruiz was forced to form a minority government with the National Country, Abyssinian Nationalist Front and both independents in the 128th Parliament. The Ruiz Government would be brought down in a motion of no confidence within three months, as the National Country and Abyssinian Nationalist Front abandoned the government following revelations that the Ruiz Government had considered conceding the Saren dominions of Hawaii and Sri Lanka to Slattsenw. The election saw a record number of women elected to the Saren Parliament which saw the creation of the Women's Crossparty Caucus in 1940.

The issues which dominated the election revolved around the rising tensions with neighboring Slattsenw in Palestine and the Eastern Easpagnan border, with Labour denouncing 'appeasement' and campaigning on mobilizing for war while the Ruiz Government campaigned on it's role in the recovering economy. Anti-appeasement sentiment ran high in Hispania, where all Conservative Senators running for election would be defeated by Labour, Socialist or National Country challengers. This also fostered an environment in which Labour won over cosmopolitan voters and solidified it's support among the Catholic and Paraheonic voters who had historically been swing voters. This was the first election where Labour won over 40% of the vote among Muslim Voters. It also obtained a narrow majority of the TPP from women voters.

Background

Until late 1937, political punditry expected the Liberal Democrats to mount a comeback, this expectation was erased as a string of state-election defeats removed the last Liberal Democratic Premiers from office, and the last Liberal Democrats in Parliament officially joined either the Conservatives, Labour or National Country. Following the sudden death of Prime Minister Imelda Astoria and the nine-day tenure of Emmanuel Haziri in which it became apparent he lacked support among the party backbench, Jose Ruiz secured the party leadership. He became it's first northern leader in over half a century.

Results

House of Commons (IRV) — Turnout 94.72% (CV)

Party		Votes	%	Swing	Seats
	Conservative	141,910,005	39.82	4.15	337	79
	Labour	138,595,683	38.89	5.80	322	91
	Socialist	23,770,460	6.67	0.23	20	5
	National Country	20,955,068	5.88	0.93	8	2
	Abyssinian Nationalist Front	9,230,209	2.59	0.19	4
	Aegyptian Independence League	4,739,837	1.33	0.58	4
	Hispanic Voice	7,305,764	2.05	0.06	1
	Independent & Others	9,871,690	2.77	1.52	2	1
Two Party Preferred Vote
	Conservative	178,438,823	50.07	4.98	337	79
	Labour	177,939,893	49.93	4.98	322	91

Seat gains shown are gains made by the parties compared to it's last election standing, and do not include gains made throughout the term of Parliament.

Analysis

The election cemented Labour as the major political opposition to the Conservative Party, as it grew beyond it's traditional enclaves in Espagna, Reia and Valemore to pick up seats in all provinces. The first Labour MPs were elected from Swynton, Junia, Tuni, Harichia and Libya in this election. Aegyptus Labour MP Hadi Salan who had changed affiliation from the Socialist Party to Labour during the previous parliament became the first Labour MP from the province and was joined by six others in being elected from the province to the Labour benches. The Conservatives meanwhile were reduced to a minority of seats from Eastern Espagna for the first time since their founding and would never regain a majority of the province's seats as the Conservative Party (the National Progressives would obtain a majority of the province's seats in the 21st Century). In Freicatia, ten Conservative incumbents were defeated by Labour challengers, leaving the Conservatives with just two seats in a province that would be dominated by the National Country, Labour and Socialist parties for the following two decades until Conservative Edmure Gal-Hari was elected to the Senate four decades after this election.

Impact on the Great War

Mohammad Linus Salazar led the motion and embarked on the 'six and three' program, which was designed to prepare the country to fight three simultaneous wide-front conflicts in under six months. Had the motion of no confidence failed, journalists and historians of the time believed that Slattsenw would have conquered the entirety of Hispania and Sinai-Cyprus. Contemporary historians take the view that the Slattsens did not have the capacity to cross the mountains and rivers needed to properly occupy Hispania, and maintain that major metropolitan holdouts of Barcelona, Porto, Adalia and Ellyria would have been maintained and held by the Sarens.