2021 United States Senate special election in Wisconsin (ATB RP)
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The 2021 United States Senate special election in Wisconsin will be held on March 30, 2021, to fill a vacancy in the U.S. Senate through January 3, 2022, arising from the death of Jon Ronson in January 2021.
In accordance with Wisconsin law, a special election was ordered on January 18, 2021 by the Governor of Wisconsin. The filing deadline for this election is February 2, 2021, with the special primary scheduled for March 2, 2021.
The late incumbent Republican Senator Jon Ronson was first elected in 2010. In 2016, he was reelected with 50.17% of the vote.
Wisconsin's Senate seat is expected to be one of the most heavily targeted by national Democrats for a potential flip as the party has seen considerable success in recent statewide elections, notably in the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats won every statewide contest on the ballot in Wisconsin (including the state's other Senate seat). Furthermore, a Republican victory in this race would constitute a federal Republican trifecta and it has accordingly captured a wide nationwide following.
Republican Primary
Candidates
Declared
- Christopher Duncan Jr., Former Deputy White House Communications Director (2018 - 2019), nominee for the 2nd congressional district in 2020
- Daniel Gundersen, Mayor of Waukesha, Wisconsin (2016 - Present) and Founder of Dairy Dan's
Democratic Primary
Candidates
Publicly expressed interest
- Everson Boyd, Chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus (2021 - Present) and U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district (1997 - Present), Former Secretary of Labor (1993 - 1997)
General Election
Predictions
Polling
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| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democratic |
Undecided | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Aggregator | Until January 30, 2021 | January 30, 2021 | 43.6% | 44.6% | 11.8% | Democratic +1.0 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democratic |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinionark | January 27-28, 2021 | 520 | ± 2.8% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| General Reports | January 25-27, 2021 | 537 | ± 3.8% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Surveyor (D) | January 24-26, 2021 | 402 | ± 4.2% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Anderson Polling (R) | January 22–25, 2021 | 474 | ± 3.5% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Richard Pussey Pollsters | January 21–24, 2021 | 578 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 15% |