2021 United States Senate special election in Wisconsin (ATB RP)

2021 United States Senate special election in Wisconsin

March 30, 2021 (2021-03-30)

Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator Jon Ronson Republican

The 2021 United States Senate special election in Wisconsin will be held on March 30, 2021, to fill a vacancy in the U.S. Senate through January 3, 2022, arising from the death of Jon Ronson in January 2021.

In accordance with Wisconsin law, a special election was ordered on January 18, 2021 by the Governor of Wisconsin. The filing deadline for this election is February 2, 2021, with the special primary scheduled for March 2, 2021.

The late incumbent Republican Senator Jon Ronson was first elected in 2010. In 2016, he was reelected with 50.17% of the vote.

Wisconsin's Senate seat is expected to be one of the most heavily targeted by national Democrats for a potential flip as the party has seen considerable success in recent statewide elections, notably in the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats won every statewide contest on the ballot in Wisconsin (including the state's other Senate seat). Furthermore, a Republican victory in this race would constitute a federal Republican trifecta and it has accordingly captured a wide nationwide following.

Republican Primary

Three major candidates announced their intention to run and filed before the filing deadline.

A primary debate was held on Monday, February 15, 2021.

Candidates

Declared

• Christopher Duncan Jr., Former Deputy White House Communications Director (2018 - 2019), nominee for the 2nd congressional district in 2020
• Daniel Gundersen, Mayor of Waukesha, Wisconsin (2016 - Present) and Founder of Dairy Dan's
• Serah Kurian, U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 8th Congressional District (2013-)

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Dan Gundersen	Christopher Duncan Jr.	Serah Kurian	Undecided
General Reports	February 11-14, 2021	23%	21%	16%	40%
Opinionark	February 9-13, 2021	21%	19%	13%	47%
Anderson Polling (R)	February 6-10, 2021	20%	16%	13%	51%
Surveylance Polling	February 5-10, 2021	23%	14%	12%	50%

Democratic Primary

Candidates

Declared

• Everson Boyd, U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district (1997 - Present), Former Secretary of Labor (1993 - 1997)
• Natasha Gauthier, Attorney General of Wisconsin (2019 - Present), Former District Attorney for Milwaukee County (2011 - 2018)

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Everson Boyd	Natasha Gauthier	Undecided
General Reports	February 11-14, 2021	24%	27%	49%
Opinionark	February 9-13, 2021	21%	25%	54%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Everson Boyd	Someone Else	Undecided
Surveylance	February 1-13, 2021	23%	10%	65%

General Election

Polling

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Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Generic Republican	Generic Democratic	Undecided	Margin
The Aggregator	Until February 6, 2021	44.2%	45.1%	10.7%	Democratic +0.9

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Generic Republican	Generic Democratic	Undecided
Surveylance Polling	February 5-13, 2021	1165	± 2.2%	44%	42%	14%
Goldwater Institute	February 4-6, 2021	453	± 4.2%	46%	45%	9%
Stuyvesant Polling	February 2-3, 2021	330	± 4.8%	45%	47%	8%
General Reports	February 1-5, 2021	540	± 3.8%	43%	47%	9%
Opinionark	January 27-28, 2021	520	± 2.8%	43%	42%	15%
General Reports	January 24-27, 2021	537	± 3.8%	45%	48%	7%
Surveyor (D)	January 24-26, 2021	402	± 4.2%	43%	47%	10%
Anderson Polling (R)	January 22–25, 2021	474	± 3.5%	43%	45%	12%
Richard Pussey Pollsters	January 21–24, 2021	578	± 3.5%	44%	41%	15%