2018 Esthursian general election

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2018 Esthursian general election
← 2014 7 April, 2018 2022 →

851 in the House of Members;
401 in the House of Barons
Turnout78.1%
  First party Second party Third party
  HaroldOsborne.png StephenAlborough.png JeremyWilson.png
Leader Harold Osborne Stephen Alborough Jeremy Wilson
Party Social Democrats Conservative Party Progressive Group
Leader since 30 January, 2015 22 July, 2011 19 May, 2014
Last election 97 Barons
292 Members
114 Barons
247 Members
59 Barons
42 Members
Seats won 130 Barons
459 Members
107 Barons
166 Members
57 Barons
73 Members
Seat change Increase 33
Increase 167
Decrease 7
Decrease 81
Decrease 2
Increase 31
Popular vote 25,380,829
32,531,447
20,837,347
19,069,225
11,123,696
8,309,192
Percentage 32.4%
41.1%
26.6%
24.1%
14.2%
10.5%
Swing Increase 8.3%
Increase 9.1%
Decrease 1.8%
Decrease 3.9%
Decrease 0.5%
Increase 2.1%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  File:HelgaJárnsson.jpeg MorwenLlethan.png JohnFrampton.png
Leader Helga Járnsson Morwen Llethan John Frampton
Party Asthoric Workers' Party The Localist Group Middle Group
Leader since 8 December, 2017 2 April, 2003 10 October, 2014
Last election 26 Barons
104 Members
14 Barons
31 Members
14 Barons
28 Members
Seats won 29 Barons
53 Members
24 Barons
47 Members
20 Barons
34 Members
Seat change Increase 3
Decrease 51
Increase 10
Increase 16
Increase 6
Increase 6
Popular vote 5,641,332
4,035,395
4,684,839
5,222,278
3,197,044
6,092,657
Percentage 7.2%
5.1%
6.0%
6.6%
5.0%
7.7%
Swing Increase 0.7%
Decrease 3.2%
Increase 2.5%
Increase 2.1%
Increase 1.5%
Increase 3.7%

Prime Minister before election

Harold Osborne
Social Democrats (dual-minority)

Elected Prime Minister

Harold Osborne
Social Democrats (minor-majority)

The 2018 Esthursian general election was held on 7 April, 2018, as per the Constitution term limits. This election was unique in that all three contending New Democratic Coalition leaders - the left-leaning coalition formed following the 2011 general election - had not previously led their respective parties through a general election. The Social Democrats won back its majority in the Members, and made significant gains in the Barons, the former partly thanks to tactical voting by pro-Coalition voters.

The main features of the campaign included the imminent partial nationalisation of Asgeron, Esthursia's largest automotives manufacturer; public sector pay; the economic record of both coalitions and the relations within both the New Democratic Coalition and the Conservative Party. This is also the first election where a major party supported the gradual phasing out of the monarchy, with the Esthursian Workers' Party's new leader, Hannah Banbury, taking the party towards the libertarian-left. Banbury was also (and remains, as of 2022) the youngest major party leader, where major means party attaining at or over 5% consistently in polling and in elections.

Although opinion polling initially suggested that the Social Democrats were facing a strong challenge from the Agrarian Democrats for centrist voters, the Agrarians were besmirched by "Lobbygate", whereby the leader of the party and the party chairman were accused of lobbying on behalf of General Healthcare, a private healthcare service provider, in the House of Barons, in spite of the amnesty period granting them temporary relief from standing trial. The party leader was later found not guilty on all counts, however the party chairman was suspended indefinitely following a guilty conviction.

The Conservatives held most of their Barony seats thanks to the collapse of the Agrarian Democrats, however suffered significant Members losses thanks to the rise of the Middle Party in rural areas and the Social Democrats in urban areas. Additionally, the Localist Group recovered notably from their nadir in the previous general election.

The Social Democrats announced, on 12 April, that the New Democratic Coalition would only be preserved in the Barony, with all three parties agreeing to grant the two smaller partners the same Upper Cabinet positions in the Barony but lose their Lower Cabinet positions in the Members. The Conservatives chose not to renew their agreement with the Agrarian Democrats, marking the first time that the party stood alone in the Members and the Barony since 2012 - when the Agrarians had broken off in protest at then-PM Gregory Manning's handling of the economy.

Significant shifts included the Progressive Group primarily winning middle-class, urban or professional votes, the Conservatives continuing to shift away from the middle-class, the Social Democrats winning semi-rural votes, and age being a determining factor in party choice - with the Conservatives winning in every age over 65.