2019 Zanuck special election

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2019 Zanuck special election

← 2015 May 25, 2019 2020 →

The Constituency of Zanuck (WV) in the United States Congress
Turnout82.26% Decrease 9.08
  First party Second party
  Patrick Morrisey by Gage Skidmore.jpg NatalieTennant7 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Patrick Morrisey Natalie Tennant
Party Christian Conservative Union Social Democratic
Popular vote 63,132 63,849
Percentage 28.16% 28.48%
Swing Increase 7.22 Decrease 23.83
TCP Votes 145,925 78,265
TCP Percentage 65.09% 34.91%
TCP Swing Increase 27.43 Decrease 27.43

WV - Zanuck.png

MC before election

Gaston Caperton
Social Democratic

Elected MC

Patrick Morrisey
Christian Conservative Union

A special election for the Congressional constituency of Zanuck took place on Saturday May 25, 2019 following the resignation of death of Social Democratic MC Gaston Caperton.

In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Christian Conservative Union had been predicted to gain the electorate with an substantial swing against the SDP.

The by-election marked the single-biggest swing in any given seat for either the SDP or SSD since their inception and triggered the eventual resignation of Chancellor Bill Nelson.

Background

The seat of Zanuck, anchored in southern West Virginia was until this election that had never elected a non-SDP or non-SDP affiliated member of Congress. Gaston Caperton had been elected to the seat in 1990, and the seat, and it's previous incarnations were previously represented by Social Democrats Bob Wise and John Slack.

Upon Caperton's death, SDP leadership began dissociation with the race, effectively conceding the race before it had begun. Backbench SDP members, such as John Fetterman who would later become Chancellor, and others made a concerted effort to retain the seat.

Zanuck was until the late 2000s a seat predominantly dominated by mineworkers, and hence, the mineworker union membership was the key voting bloc. Since then, with the decline of coal, the economy of the area had substantially shifted to other sectors in which union density was substantially lower.

Key Dates

  • Thursday, 26 March 2019 – Death of Member of Congress
  • Friday, 12 April 2019 – Issue of writ by President Hillary Rodham Clinton
  • Friday, 19 April 2019 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
  • Thursday, 2 May 2019 – Close of nominations (12 noon)
  • Monday, 6 May 2019 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
  • Friday, 10 May 2019 – Start of early voting
  • Saturday, 25 May 2019 – Polling day (7am to 7pm)
  • Friday, 31 May 2019 – Last day for receipt of postal votes (Postmarked by May 25)
  • Sunday, 23 June 2019 – Last day for return of writs
  • Monday, 24 June 2019 – New Member of Congress seated.

Candidates

Candidates (7) in ballot paper order
Party Candidate Background
  Free Democratic Party Ann Urling Businesswoman
  Farmers Federation Walt Hemlick West Virginia Minister for Agriculture (2013-2017), West Virginia Leader of the Farmers Federation (1989-2017), Member of the West Virginia State Assembly (1989-2017)
  Independent Rupert Phillips Independent Member of the West Virginia State Assembly (2009-Incumbent)
  Social Democratic Party Natalie Tennant Deputy Opposition Leader (WV) (2017-), West Virginia Treasurer (2009-2017), Member of the West Virginia State Assembly (1997-Incumbent)
  The Greens Paula Swearengin Activist
  Independent Douglas Reynolds Attorney, and Businessman
  Christian Conservative Union Patrick Morissey West Virginia Second Minister (2017-Incumbent), West Virginia Attorney-General (2017-Incumbent), Member of the West Virginia State Assembly (2009-Incumbent)

Results

2019 Zanuck special election
Party Member Votes % Swing
  Social Democratic Natalie Tennant 63,849 28.48 −23.83
  Christian Conservative Union Patrick Morissey 63,132 28.16 +7.22
  Independent Douglas Reynolds 41,116 18.34 +18.34
  Free Democratic Party Ann Urling 16,814 7.50 +7.50
  Farmers Federation Walt Hemlick 14,505 6.47 +0.55
  The Greens Paula Swearengin 12,756 5.69 +5.69
  Independent Rupert Phillips 12,017 5.36 +3.30
Turnout 224,190 82.26 −9.08
Two-party-preferred result
  Christian Conservative Union Patrick Morissey 145,925 65.09 +27.43
  Social Democratic Party Natalie Tennant 78,265 34.91 −27.43
  Christian Conservative gain from Social Democratic Swing +27.43

Aftermath

The Nelson Government had braced for a defeat, which would require a swing of over 12 points. However, had not accounted for an overnight switch of safe status from SDP to CCU. The remarkable 27 point swing was interpreted as a wide rebuke of Nelson as Chancellor and within the week, six cabinet Secretaries had announced their resignations, all with the intention of contending for SDP Leadership or publicly rebuking Nelson. On June 5, the Greens and Southern Social Democrats both declared the next 'supply bill' to arrive on the floor would not have their support, ending coalition support for Nelson's government. On June 6, Nelson announced he would immediately resign as Chancellor, MC and Leader of the Social Democratic Party. In the ensuing leadership contest, the SDP Parliamentary Caucus gave John Fetterman a majority of caucus support. Fetterman later changed the rules to require a rank-and-file vote on all future leadership elections, and raised the threshold for intraparty votes of no-confidence against a sitting SDP Chancellor from a majority to two-thirds of the caucus. Under those rules, McAuliffe would have survived.

Fetterman formed government with coalition support by June's end and was able to lead the party to re-election with a reduced majority and wider coalition, at the 2020 general election. The Zanuck by-election is therefore seen as a watershed moment in ending the Nelson Government and breaking the deadlock within the SDP.