2020 Arabin Senate elections: Difference between revisions
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== Predictions == | == Predictions == | ||
Listed below are predictions by six organizations that regularly researches polling data. | |||
* "<u>tossup</u>": no advantage | |||
* "<u>tilt</u>" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean" | |||
* "<u>lean</u>": slight advantage | |||
* "<u>likely"</u>": significant, but surmountable, advantage | |||
* "<u>safe"</u>": near-certain chance of victory | |||
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Revision as of 05:41, 5 July 2020
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11 of the 32 seats (class 1) in the Arabin Senate 17 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Liberal Socialist senator running Conservative Socialist senator running Liberal Socialist senator retiring Conservative Socialist senator retiring No election | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2-3
The 2020 Arabin Senate elctions will be held on December 5, 2020, with the 11 class 1 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections. The winners will be elected to six-year terms starting from January 5, 2021, to January 5, 2027.
Predictions
Listed below are predictions by six organizations that regularly researches polling data.
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean": slight advantage
- "likely"": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "safe"": near-certain chance of victory
| State | Senator | 2020 election ratings | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arabin News Journal May 12, 2020 |
Independence Group July 3, 2020 |
New Age Research April 15, 2020 |
OPP June 29, 2020 |
Political Forecasting June 15, 2020 |
PolitiTrade July 1, 2020 | ||
| Burberry | Poppy Smith | Lean D | Tilt R (flip) | Tossup | Tilt D | Tilt R (flip) | Lean D |
| Dartmoor | Henry Carpenter | Tossup | Lean D | Tilt R (flip) | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D |
| Dellcourt | Spencer Pickering | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Tossup | Likely R | Lean R |
| Lochcoast | Lola Fry | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| New Bristol | Andrew Clegg | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R |
| New Cambridge | Winnie Kimes | Safe D | Tilt R (flip) | Safe D | Tilt D | Likely D | Tossup |
| New Plymouth | Michael Fuller | Tilt R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean D | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) |
| Owens | David Coffman | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D | Tilt R (flip) |
| Saint George | Mary Nichols | Tilt R (flip) | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D |
| Severn | Amber Holmes | Likely D | Likely R (flip) | Lean D | Tilt R (flip) | Tossup | Lean R (flip) |
| Windsor | Lucien Orton | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Lean R | Tossup |
| Overall | D - 14 R - 17 1 tossup |
D - 12 R - 19 1 tossup |
D - 13 R - 16 3 tossups |
D - 13 R - 16 3 tossups |
D - 14 R - 16 2 tossups |
D - 13 R - 17 2 tossups | |