Mariranan presidential election, 2007-08

Mariranan presidential election, 2007-08

30 December 2007 (first round) 14 January 2008 (second round)

Candidate Dario Lorenzin Giuseppe Rognoni Party PM PAR Alliance Alliance for the Centre Coalition for Democratic Action Popular vote 13,212,262 12,392,896 Percentage 51.6% 48.4%

File:2008 Mariranan map.png Results of the second round by county ■ – Dario Lorenzin ■ – Giuseppe Rognoni

President before election Roberto Vernizzi Anti-Revolutionary Party Elected President Dario Lorenzin Positive Marirana

Marirana held its 49^th presidential election in two rounds - the first on the 30th December 2007 and the second on the 14th January 2008 - to elect the 43^rd President of Marirana. As the first round did not see any candidate receive 50%+ of the vote, the two most voted candidates - Dario Lorenzin heading the Alliance for Change coalition and Giuseppe Rognoni heading the Coalition for Democratic Action - going into the second round. Lorenzin would win the presidency with 54.6% of the vote to Rognoni's 45.4%.

In light of the Monzese and Calcanhotto scandals corruption was seen as one of the most important issues of the election. The 2007 economic crash also was seen as important with the massive spike in poverty and government austerity programme resulting in a decline of support for the centre-right and boosting Lorenzin's approval rating. Unlike in prior elections security and foreign policy were not major issues.

Electoral process

Since the 1994 presidential election presidents in Mariranan are elected in a two-round system in which if a candidate does not achieve 50%+ of the vote in the first round the candidates with the two highest percentage of the vote will enter a second round. President's can serve a maximum of a single five year term whilst acting presidents can not run for re-election, meaning incumbent president Roberto Vernizzi was not eligible to run for president. Voting in Marirana is compulsory for all literate people's aged 18-75 with strict penalties for those who do not - however the existence of cartel groups in large swathes of the country typically results in turnout to be closer to 80%.

To registrar to become a candidate one has to be a Mariranan citizen, have had permanent residency in Marirana in the past five years, be over the age of 35 and either has collected 50,000 voters' signatures or be the official candidate of a political party with 3% representation in either the House of Senators or House of Councillors. People with dual citizenship are banned from running for public office.

Background

Since the restoration of democracy in 1986 up until 2003 Marirana was ruled by a succession of centre-right presidents from the Coalition for Democratic Action, which consisted of the Anti-Revolutionary Party, Democratic Alternative and Socialist Party. During the 1990's elections were polarised between the CPLD and the left-wing coalition, the Democratic Left Alliance (ASD).

Alfonso Hatoyama served as president from 2003-2006

The 2003 election however saw the victory of Alfonso Hatoyama, who headed the right-wing alliance known as the Convergence for Freedom (CL) representing the first freely elected right-wing president since 1938. The legislative election that year however saw the CL fail to win a majority, resulting in Hatoyama forming a coalition government with the CPLD.

Hatoyama was in 2006 implicated in a wide ranging corruption scandal wherein president Hatoyama was accused by the Bureau for the Investigation of Corrupt Activities of setting up a criminal network in which companies would pay bribes to the government in return for the government would award them lucrative contracts and tax breaks, focusing on government favouritism regarding contracts given to Monzese, TeleEX and Petrocorp which had donated to Hatoyama's presidential campaign. Hatoyama in particular was implicated in receiving donations from Monzese in return for privatising Mariranan Waterworks to the company. As a result of the corrupt Hatoyama was impeached by the House of Councillors with the support of the CPLD and ASD delegates with Roberto Vernizzi becoming president and Maurizio Zanetti becoming prime minister of a minority government dependent on ad hoc support from various parties on confidence and budget matters.

The Vernizzi presidency however was soon undermined as he was accused of embezzling money from state-owned enterprises, most prominently the agricultural conglomerate Calcanhotto. The Calcanhotto scandal resulted in some members of the CPLD to leave the government led by DA member and former Attorney General Dario Lorenzin. Lorenzin and his defectors subsequently announced the creation of the Positive Marirana party that supported social liberalism and anti-corruption.

Roberto Vernizzi served as interim president from 2006-2008

Positive Marirana soon began forging an electoral alliance between it and several reformist political parties such as the economic liberal Forza Marirana and the green Union of Green Democrats - Ecological Alternative. In January 2007 Lorenzin announced the creation of the Alliance for the Centre (AC) electoral alliance.

In May 2007 the economy underwent a currency crisis which combined with external economic shocks, as well as a dependency on volatile short-term capital and debt to maintain the overvalued fixed exchange rate caused the economy to collapse resulting in Marirana to enter the worst recession in 100 years, with income poverty rising to 62.32%. The government responded to the crisis through austerity policies with Vernizzi announcing in August 2007 that the government was applying for an economic restructuring package from the Global Institute for Fiscal Affairs in order to meet its debt payment obligations.

The economic crisis and subsequent austerity policies led to protests in Marirana as well as a sharp decrease in support of the government. In a poll taken in July 2007 over 90% of Mariranan's believed president Vernizzi should resign from the presidency and snap elections be held.

Following the announcement of the GIFA loan package the Socialist Party left the CPLD joining the AC, cementing the newly formed electoral alliance as a potential electoral force in Mariranan politics. The Democratic Left Alliance also saw a change in direction when Renzo Acquaviva - who had run in every presidential election as the ASD's candidate since 1992 - announced his retirement from politics, leading to speculation over whether the ASD could increase its support.

Candidates

The deadline for candidates to apply for the ballot paper ended on the 26^th November. Four candidates - Giuseppe Rognoni, Dario Lorenzin, Cuitláhuac Battista and Antonella Ferramonti - either got the backing of 4% of MP's in the Parliamentary Assembly or got the necessary 50,000 voter signatures to apply for a candidacy.

This was the last election where no presidential candidate was picked in a presidential primary, with all candidates being chosen by their electoral coalitions by internal consultations.

Candidate name and age political party			Slogan	Political office(s)	Details
	Giuseppe Rognoni (48) Anti-Revolutionary Party (Coalition for Democratic Action)		Politiche di Buon Senso Common sense politics	Prime Minister of Marirana (2002-2003)	A former prime minister, Rognoni ran on a conservative platform calling for greater economic liberalisation and a hardline approach to drug trafficking and insurgent groups. Rognoni also stated that budget cuts were necessary to deal with Marirana's debt.
	Dario Lorenzin (54) Positive Marirana (Alliance for the Centre)		Cambiamo Marirana Let's change Marirana	Attorney General (2000-2003)	The former Attorney General, Lorenzin called for more power to be given to anti-corruption bodies, institutional reform to limit corruption and socially liberal policies. Lorenzin also stated he would work to revive the economy and ensure greater welfare for those in poverty and would sponsor peace talks with insurgent groups.
	Cuitláhuac Battista (47) Republican Left (Democratic Left Alliance)		Governo della dignità Government of Dignity	Governor of Mederio (2004-2008)	Candidate of the left-wing Republican Socialist Alliance and of Lusitanan descent, Battista promoted in his campaign land reform, nationalisation of banks, large scale welfare programmes and a "quick end" to the insurgency, stating he will hold negotiations with left-wing insurgent groups.
	Antonella Ferramonti (55) Party for National Reconstruction (Convergence for Freedom)		Mano forte, grande cuore Strong Hand, Big Heart	Governor of Ritaldi (2003-2007)	The governor of Ritaldi, Ferramonti campaigned on granting a pardon for former president Alfonso Hatoyama and continuing the former president's right-wing policies including expanding the security apparatus and increased protectionism.

Opinion polls

First round

Date	Institute	Giuseppe Rognoni	Dario Lorenzin	Cuitláhuac Battista	Antonella Ferramonti	Other or no answer	Lead
29/12/2007	IEN	38%	24%	23%	12%	3%	14%
27/12/2007	Voce Politica	35%	25%	22%	14%	4%	10%
25/12/2007	IEN	38%	25%	25%	11%	1%	13%
23/12/2007	IEN	40%	23%	25%	11%	1%	18%
21/12/2007	Opinione Pubblica	43%	24%	20%	12%	1%	19%
19/12/2007	IEN	42%	22%	23%	12%	1%	19%
17/12/2007	QN Votazione	45%	20%	22%	12%	1%	23%
15/12/2007	Voce Politica	41%	21%	25%	11%	1%	16%
13/12/2007	Opinione Pubblica	39%	22%	24%	13%	2%	15%
11/12/2007	IEN	41%	24%	21%	12%	2%	17%
09/12/2007	Opinione Pubblica	40%	22%	22%	12%	4%	18%
07/12/2007	Voce Politica	43%	20%	24%	10%	3%	19%
05/12/2007	QN Votazione	44%	20%	22%	10%	4%	22%
03/12/2007	IEN	41%	19%	23%	12%	5%	18%
01/12/2007	Opinione Pubblica	40%	18%	24%	11%	7%	16%
30/11/2007	IEN	44%	17%	22%	8%	9%	22%
28/11/2007	Voce Politica	42%	15%	24%	9%	10%	18%
26/11/2007	IEN	45%	18%	20%	7%	10%	25%

Campaign

Frontrunner Guiseppe Rognoni campaigning in Santa Maria.

Although the campaign officially begun in November 2007, campaigning de facto started in August as candidates began forming exploratory committees to register to run for president. Given the political upheaval resulting from impeachment and the subsequent economic crisis several politicians from the ruling coalition - such as Prime Minister Maurizio Zanetti, Governor of San Marco Giovanni Pettinicchio and Minister of Administrative Reform Sabrina Santagata - announced they would not run for the presidency. As well as this after months of speculation Renzo Acquaviva - the candidate of the Democratic Left Alliance in every election since 1992 - announced his retirement from politics.

The first candidate to announce their candidacy was Dario Lorenzin who was unanimously nominated by his Alliance for the Centre coalition. The announcement of Lorenzin's candidacy was seen as a certainty in the election given the fact that the Alliance for the Centre was widely seen as a personalist project built around Lorenzin. In September 2007 Ritaldi governor Antonella Ferramonti was nominated by the Convergence for Freedom as their candidate after former Prime Minster Eduardo Profumo ruled out his candidacy.

Following Pettinicchio ruling himself out of the presidential run the frontrunner for the Coalition for Democratic Action was former prime minister Giuseppe Rognoni, who was nominated by the CPLD in October 2007. The final candidate to be nominated was the Governor of Mederio Cuitláhuac Battista from the Republican Left party to represent the Democratic Left Alliance. Battista, who was of indigenous descent, was nominated over the more radical Fernão Magalhães, the Mayor of Venanzo and a member of the Communist Party of Marirana due to hopes within the ASD of attaining victory over the unpopular CPLD government.

Lorenzina at a campaign rally in Soriano.

Critics quickly accused Rognoni's campaign of using attack ads to spread disinformation about Battista, with such ads alleging the leftist candidate was backed explicitly by the Red Army and the 26 May Movement. There was also accusations of local CPLD and ASD officials using vote buying to drum up support from Rognoni and Battista.

The Rognoni campaign emphasised a vote for the candidate was a "vote for stability". Rognoni's campaign called for economic stability by ensuring more foreign direct investment and that the GIFA loan conditions be met as well as increasing security measures against insurgent groups and launching a commission into corruption by expanding the remit of the Bureau for the Investigation of Corrupt Activities. Rognoni's campaign was supported by most big business groups and during the first round he consistently led in the polls. His closest competitor in terms of polling was initially Battistawho supported more socialist inclined policies, nationalisation of large banks and peace talks with left-wing insurgent groups, with Battista courting the support of trade unions. Lorenzin initially came third in the polls, calling for strong anti-corruption policies and a progressive economic proposal. Finally Ferramonti mainly campaigned on granting a presidential pardon for former president Alfonso Hatoyama.

The first debate hosted by TeleX held on the 4^th December was perceived as a victory for Lorenzin who soon rose in the polls to tie with Battista for second place, albeit Rognoni was still consistently ahead. This trend was repeated after the second debate held by RTM on the 24^th December which saw poll numbers for Rognoni start to fall.

The first round saw Rognoni fall below expectations, getting 9,599,526 (36.2%) votes. Lorenzin came second with 6,788,615 (25.6%) of votes beating Battista's 5,940,038 (22.4%) votes, whilst Ferramonti only achieved 4,189,848 (15.8%) votes. The first round meant that Rognoni and Lorenzin entered the second round.

Although initially leading in the polls for the second round, Rognoni's campaign began to lose momentum when he was accused of taking donations to his campaign undisclosed from the electoral office, once again giving the impression that the CPLD was corrupt. At a third debate held by SdTI on the 16^th January was widely seen as a victory for Lorenzin as Rognoni was seen as being unable to answer effectively accusations of corruption and governmental mismanagement of the economy.

Results

Candidate		Party	First round		Second round
			Votes	%	Votes	%
	Dario Lorenzin	Positive Marirana (AC)	6,788,615	25.6%	13,212,262	51.6%
	Giuseppe Rognoni	Anti-Revolutionary Party (CPLD)	9,599,526	36.2%	12,392,896	48.4%
	Cuitláhuac Battista	Republican Left (ASD)	6,470,399	24.4%
	Antonella Ferramonti	Pole of Good Government (CL)	3,659,488	13.8%
Valid votes			26,518,030	98.6%	25,605,159	96.7%
Invalid/blank votes			376,523	1.4%	873,805	3.3%
Total			26,894,553	-	26,478,964	-
Registered voters/turnout			29,684,938	90.6%	29,684,938	89.2%