Kainan Crisis

Kainan Crisis
Part of Swahili Spring
Protestors in the streets of Tokoya, Kainan
Date	2021
Location	Kainan
Caused by	Authoritarianism Economic exploitation Human rights violations Dayashinese imperialism Stratification Separatism Racism Poverty
Goals	Regime change Human rights Economic freedom
Methods	Civil disobedience Civil resistance Protests Riots Internet activism Insurgency Urban warfare Uprising
Status	ongoing
Parties to the civil conflict
Kainan Dayashina Freedom League IUFOI Native State New Generation Vanguard Various local insurgencies

The Kainan Crisis is an ongoing series of anti-government protests, riots, and armed insurgencies taking place in Kainan in 2021. The movement has been organised against the repressinve Inui regime in Kainan, which enforces policies that maintain high levels of inequality between the country's ruling classes and its much larger working classes. Major issues which led to the beginning of the protests in Kainan include racism, economic stratification, and labour exploitation.

Timeline of protest and insurgency period

March 2021

Protests erupt in Tokoya, Kumamoto, Okamachi, and Hyogo against repression of the indigenous population of Kainan by the ethnic Dayashinese and half Dayashinese ruling classes
Protestors start a massive social media movement to share information about oppression in Kainan

April 2021

Protests grew in size and area covered, with isolated instances of violence and non-lethal force undertaken by police against protestors
Kainan reinforces police barricades with military and paramilitary personnel and equipment in response to protestors threatening to pour into businesses, public facilities, and ethnically Dayashinese priveleged neighbourhoods
Dayashina issued a recall for all Dayashinese citizens in Kainan to return home within two weeks, under threat of violence
Kainanese military and police secured embassy district in Tokoya, blocking it off from protestors
Kainanese military undertook a probing offensive against separatist factions inland, utilising loitering munitions and drone strikes to seize control of a number of separatist checkpoints

May 2021

Situation escalated as protestors attempted to seize control of University of Tokoya, Maya Financial Tower, and multiple Shijukunese luxury auto dealerships - police responded with excessive force and mass arrests
Separatist activity in inland provinces decreases notably following Kainanese offensive
Native State insurgents infiltrated the Tokoya protests, escalating violence, recruiting, and attempting to seize narrative control of the protest movement at large
Following confirmed reports of Native State infilitrations, Kainanese military and police successfully undertook a concerted effort to push protests out of city centres and into surrounding slums in Tokoya, Kumamoto, Okamachi, and Hyogo
Moderate reformist leader Manuel Ngombele forced into hiding amidst immediate threats from Native State and from government-associated paramilitaries, but vowed to remain active in leading the protest movement via social media
Dayashina declared it's support for Ngombele and his moderate reformist faction and hinted at preparedness to intervene in their favour and against "insidious and destabilising radical insurgent groups"
President Akio Inui declared martial law on 21 May, 2021
Following the martial law declaration, protests steadily devolved into full-blown street to street combat over the course of late May, with insurgent groups and associated civilians in engagement with Kainanese government forces in the slums of the nation's largest cities
Internal unrest within the Kainanese one ruling party mounted amidst the fighting as it factionalised on the question of compromise and foreign intervention

June 2021

Inui regime purged 34 members of the ruling party for yet undisclosed reasons, but likely due to aforementioned factionalisation
Fighting intensified across the board in city slums as Kainanese ground forces became bogged down in door-to-door fighting, whilst civilian casualties rapidly escalated as a result of reckless actions taken on both sides, including but not limited to airstrikes and VBIED attacks in densely populated environments
As regime forces steadily retreated from several locations in rural and suburban Kainan to direct attention to the cities, multiple insurgent groups including Native State and New Generation Vanguard gained territory left abandoned by the regime
On 11 June, President Akio Inui formally called upon Dayashina to intervene to stop the situation from deteriorating any further
On 12 June, Prime Minister Daichi Noru of Dayashina announced his intent for Dayashina to intervene in Kainan primarily against radical insurgent and separatist groups and in favour of the ideals espoused by Manuel Ngombele and the moderate reformist faction
The Dayashinese Ministry of Defence confirmed that they had outlined a plan to undertake a comprehensive combined arms operation to destroy several insurgent groups, re-establish order, and facilitate humanitarian aid as well as human rights focused reforms

Intervention period

RDN Marines reinforce barriers around the elevated Idagawa district of Kumamoto

On 1 July 2021, the Republic of Dayashina Air Force began a widespread bombing campaign on insurgent positions around major cities of Kainan, and most importantly around the Sakai International Airport, which had been under heavy attack by Native State and NGV elements for weeks. Launching mostly from RDAF bases in Sundan, the bombing campaign would mark the beginning of full Dayashinese intervention in the crisis and continue through the rest of the conflict

On 25 July 2021, a Republic of Dayashina Navy amphibious assault group combined with a Themiclesian Navy humanitarian aid group would reach their final destination for operations in Kainan. RDN Marines landed on the shores of Kainan alongside a limited Themiclesian ground presence for aid distribution and inspection
As the ground elements from the amphibious assault group disembarked, aerial coverage would intensify as STOVL fighters and attack helicopters joined the bombing efforts, with transport helicopters ferrying soldiers and equipment. RDAF transport and fighter aircraft began to land in safe and newly expanded Kaianense military bases
Dayashinese military elements furthermore established temporary outposts and fixed positions in safe Kainanese city centres and worked to reinforce barriers separating those areas. Naval AAW assets were reported ready to respond to the possibility of insurgent ballistic missile strikes on civilian targets
RDN Marines reported their first engagement with hostile forces on 27 July 2021 in the slums of Tokoya

International responses

In April of 2021, Dayashinese Prime Minister Daichi Noru issued a recall for all Dayashinese citizens in Kainan to return within two weeks, followed by an outright travel ban for any Dayashinese to travel to Kainan on grounds of instability and open threat to ethnically Dayashinese persons. Despite outcries on social media and in press conferences for a statement, the Dayashinese government remained notably silent on the issue of the Kainan Crisis, refusing to comment until the situation deteriorated in May.

Themiclesia

In June 2021, the Themiclesian government announced that a special commission had been appointed to study the impact of regional instability on the provision of basic necessities to the population of Kainan. The commission has met two times since July and has taken evidence from 14 local eyewitnesses and 8 experts, some in person and others virtually. The Themiclesian mission to Kainan, headed by Ambassador M.-E. Sram, was amongst those who gave evidence to the commission. It produced an interim report for the government, stating that while resouces are not inherently rare in the region, the wide intersection of the conflict has resulted in unequal distribution across Kainanese society and deprivation in some communities disproportionably affected by civil unrest. The commission recommended that relief funds be expended to provide resources as potable water and medication, and at the same time particular attention towards the welfare of children, who are considered to be particularly at risk from the events in Kainan.

On June 21, the Themiclesian government announced that a relief effort organized through the navy was underway.