2020 United States general election (Archive): Difference between revisions

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Line 11: Line 11:
| outgoing_members = Members of the 52nd Congress
| outgoing_members = Members of the 52nd Congress
| elected_members = Members of the 53rd Congress
| elected_members = Members of the 53rd Congress
| next_year = ''Next''
| next_year = ''[[Next United States general election|Next]]''
| next_election = 2025 United States general election
| next_election = [[Next United States general election]]
| seats_for_election = All 1998 seats to the United States Congress
| seats_for_election = All 1998 seats to the United States Congress
| majority_seats = 1000
| majority_seats = 1000
Line 26: Line 26:
| seats_before1    = 891
| seats_before1    = 891
| seats1            = 783
| seats1            = 783
| seat_change1      = {{decrease}} 108
| seat_change1      = {{decrease}} 118
| popular_vote1    =  87,718,388
| popular_vote1    =  87,718,388
| percentage1      = 37.43%
| percentage1      = 37.43%
| swing1            = {{decrease}} 5.42%
| swing1            = {{decrease}} 5.95%


<!-- DRP -->
<!-- DRP -->
Line 39: Line 39:
| seats_before2    = 663
| seats_before2    = 663
| seats2            = 618
| seats2            = 618
| seat_change2      = {{decrease}} 45
| seat_change2      = {{decrease}} 42
| popular_vote2    =  69,031,326
| popular_vote2    =  69,031,326
| percentage2      = 29.45%
| percentage2      = 29.45%
| swing2            = {{decrease}} 2.61%
| swing2            = {{decrease}} 2.68%


<!-- FDP -->
<!-- FDP -->
Line 68: Line 68:
| popular_vote4    = 17,210,894
| popular_vote4    = 17,210,894
| percentage4      = 7.34%
| percentage4      = 7.34%
| swing4            = {{increase}} 1.55
| swing4            = {{increase}} 2.08


<!-- GRN -->
<!-- GRN -->
Line 121: Line 121:


==Results==
==Results==
''See Also: [[2020 United States general election by state]]''
[[File:U.S. House of Representatives After 2020.svg|right|thumb|350px|'''Government (1030)'''<br/>
[[File:U.S. House of Representatives After 2020.svg|right|thumb|350px|'''Government (1030)'''<br/>
Coalition<br/>
Coalition<br/>
Line 167: Line 168:
| 13,939,199
| 13,939,199
| 5.95
| 5.95
| −0.16
| −0.69
| 81
| 81
| 45
| 45
| 126
| 126
| {{decrease}} 3
| {{decrease}} 13
|-
|-
! colspan="2" style="text-align:left;"| Union Total
! colspan="2" style="text-align:left;"| Union Total
!style="text-align:right;"| 87,718,388
!style="text-align:right;"| 87,718,388
!style="text-align:right;"| 37.43
!style="text-align:right;"| 37.43
!style="text-align:right;"| −5.42
!style="text-align:right;"| −5.95
!style="text-align:right;"| 505
!style="text-align:right;"| 505
!style="text-align:right;"| 278
!style="text-align:right;"| 278
!style="text-align:right;"| 783
!style="text-align:right;"| 783
!style="text-align:right;"| {{decrease}} 108
!style="text-align:right;"| {{decrease}} 118
|-
|-
| style="background-color:#0087DC" | &nbsp;
| style="background-color:#0087DC" | &nbsp;
Line 190: Line 191:
| 251
| 251
| 616
| 616
| {{decrease}} 47
| {{decrease}} 42
|-
|-
| style="background-color:#FFED00" | &nbsp;
| style="background-color:#FFED00" | &nbsp;
Line 206: Line 207:
| 17,210,894
| 17,210,894
| 7.34
| 7.34
| +1.55
| +2.08
| 51
| 51
| 86
| 86
| 137
| 137
| {{increase}} 31
| {{increase}} 36
|-
|-
| style="background-color:#00A651" | &nbsp;
| style="background-color:#00A651" | &nbsp;
Line 290: Line 291:
{{bar percent|National Freedom|#AB8300|1.65}}}}
{{bar percent|National Freedom|#AB8300|1.65}}}}


===Constituencies changing party===
==Background==
===Previous Election===
At the 2015 United States general election, first-term Chancellor Barack Obama was able to form government for a second term by entering a coalition with the Greens. It had been apparent on election night the Social Democrats had lost their near-majority status and would need to enter formal coalition talks. Also at the 2015 election, independent MC for Manhattan West Michael Bloomberg was unseated by Cynthia Nixon who won the seat for the Greens. This constituted the first Congress since 1923, to have no non-partisan independent MCs. For the first time ever in U.S. history, two consecutive Congresses featured no independent MCs although independent candidate for Manhattan West, Donald Trump, was the closest independent candidate for a constituency seat.
 
Barack Obama announced a coalition with the Greens in early November, three weeks after the election.
===Union Instability===
Since the formation of the Southern Social Democrats in the early 1970s as a separate brand of Social Democratic candidates, the demarcation line had been strictly enforced. The line explicitly curtailed the national Social Democratic Party from attempting to coerce the affiliation of state, county or sub-branches of the Southern Social Democrats to defect and instead elect delegates and participate in the SDP ecosystem. This line was first eroded at the 1998 Conference, where a majority of delegates from Florida voted to amend the provisions required, and return the state branch of the Southern Social Democrats into the national Social Democratic Party. In 2004, efforts to draw away Texas, narrowly failed. In 2012, shortly into the Obama Chancellery, the Georgia branch of the SSD defected and in 2014, Oklahoma followed suit - though the two did so for wildly different reasons. In Georgia, an influx of urban Social Democrats, with opinions closer to the national median than the Southern median took control of the branch while in Oklahoma, the continued decline of the party saw cosmopolitan delegations outweigh conservative factions and in turn both branches were returned into the SDP proper by the 2015 general election.
 
At the 2015 general election, the Union was re-elected to a second term in coalition with the Greens. Then-Chancellor Barack Obama retired in 2017 and was succeeded by Obama-ally Terry McAuliffe of Virginia. McAuliffe had overseen the affiliation of the SSD-Virginia to the SDP ahead of the 2016 Social Democratic Union Convention. The continued decline of the SSD was met with strong demands from SSD MCs, hence McAuliffe who had been the subject of disapproval by SSD leadership and caucus members, was dismissed six months into his tenure. He would be succeeded by Bill Nelson (MC for Florida). Nelson was widely seen as a stand-in among the public due to his age and hence, the anticipation was that there would be a full party ballot for Union Leader in the 2018 convention. This proved inaccurate, as with no consensus candidate as an alternative, no ballot was ordered for the leadership of the party.
 
In 2019, the Nelson Government was dealt a serious defeat in the [[2019 Zanuck special election]]. SDP Incumbent Gaston Caperton had died of a heart attack and at the eventual by-election, the SDP experienced the largest single-seat swing for a political party since the adoption of full preferential voting. The result was seen as a wide rebuke of the collective SDP/SSD union brand and triggered calls for Nelson's resignation. At the ensuing leadership election, an upset was seen as backbencher John Fetterman, MC for Stern; was elected leader of the SDP/SSD.
 
Upon Fetterman's swearing-in, the Union vote experienced a fall in opinion polling to below 30%.
 
==Constituencies changing parties==
''See Also: [[Post-election pendulum for the 2020 United States general election]]''
 
Members in italics did not re-contest their Congressional seats at this election.
Members in italics did not re-contest their Congressional seats at this election.
 
===Gained by Social Democratic Union===
===Gained by Democratic Republicans===
===Gained by Free Democratic Party===
===Gained by Christian Conservative Union===
===Gained by the Greens===
===Gained by Farmers Federation===
===Gained by Socialist Party===
===Gained by National Freedom Party===
{|class="wikitable"
{|class="wikitable"
|- style="text-align:center"
|- style="text-align:center"
Line 306: Line 330:
! Member
! Member
! colspan="2" | Party
! colspan="2" | Party
|-
| Holman, TX
| style="background-color:#0087DC"|
| Democratic Republican
| Brian Babin
| style="text-align:right;"| {{efn|name=b|Margin of 14.08 v. Southern Social Democrats}} 14.08
| style="text-align:right;"| 21.57
| style="text-align:right;"| 7.49
| Trent Ashby
| National Freedom
| style="background-color:#AB8300"|


|-
|-
Line 312: Line 348:
| Democratic Republican
| Democratic Republican
| Mac Thornberry
| Mac Thornberry
| style="text-align:right;"| 6.85
| style="text-align:right;"| {{efn|name=a|Margin of 6.85 v. Farmers Federation}} 6.85
| style="text-align:right;"| 16.37
| style="text-align:right;"| 16.37
| style="text-align:right;"| 9.52
| style="text-align:right;"| 9.52
Line 318: Line 354:
| National Freedom
| National Freedom
| style="background-color:#AB8300"|
| style="background-color:#AB8300"|
|}


{|class="wikitable"
|- style="text-align:center"
! rowspan="2" | Seat
! colspan="4" | Pre-election
! rowspan="2" | Swing
! colspan="4" | Post-election
|- style="text-align:center"
! colspan="2" | Party
! Member
! Margin
! Margin
! Member
! colspan="2" | Party
|-
|-
| Sequoyah, TN
| Sequoyah, TN
Line 343: Line 393:
| style="background-color:#F09409"|
| style="background-color:#F09409"|
|}
|}
==Background==
===Previous Election===
At the 2015 United States general election, first-term Chancellor Barack Obama was able to form government for a second term by entering a coalition with the Greens. It had been apparent on election night the Social Democrats had lost their near-majority status and would need to enter formal coalition talks. Also at the 2015 election, independent MC for Manhattan West Michael Bloomberg was unseated by Cynthia Nixon who won the seat for the Greens. This constituted the first Congress since 1923, to have no non-partisan independent MCs. For the first time ever in U.S. history, two consecutive Congresses featured no independent MCs although independent candidate for Manhattan West, Donald Trump, was the closest independent candidate for a constituency seat.
Barack Obama announced a coalition with the Greens in early November, three weeks after the election.
===Union Instability===
Since the formation of the Southern Social Democrats in the early 1970s as a separate brand of Social Democratic candidates, the demarcation line had been strictly enforced. The line explicitly curtailed the national Social Democratic Party from attempting to coerce the affiliation of state, county or sub-branches of the Southern Social Democrats to defect and instead elect delegates and participate in the SDP ecosystem. This line was first eroded at the 1998 Conference, where a majority of delegates from Florida voted to amend the provisions required, and return the state branch of the Southern Social Democrats into the national Social Democratic Party. In 2004, efforts to draw away Texas, narrowly failed. In 2012, shortly into the Obama Chancellery, the Georgia branch of the SSD defected and in 2014, Oklahoma followed suit - though the two did so for wildly different reasons. In Georgia, an influx of urban Social Democrats, with opinions closer to the national median than the Southern median took control of the branch while in Oklahoma, the continued decline of the party saw cosmopolitan delegations outweigh conservative factions and in turn both branches were returned into the SDP proper by the 2015 general election.
At the 2015 general election, the Union was re-elected to a second term in coalition with the Greens. Then-Chancellor Barack Obama retired in 2017 and was succeeded by Obama-ally Terry McAuliffe of Virginia. McAuliffe had overseen the affiliation of the SSD-Virginia to the SDP ahead of the 2016 Social Democratic Union Convention. The continued decline of the SSD was met with strong demands from SSD MCs, hence McAuliffe who had been the subject of disapproval by SSD leadership and caucus members, was dismissed six months into his tenure. He would be succeeded by Bill Nelson (MC for Florida). Nelson was widely seen as a stand-in among the public due to his age and hence, the anticipation was that there would be a full party ballot for Union Leader in the 2018 convention. This proved inaccurate, as with no consensus candidate as an alternative, no ballot was ordered for the leadership of the party.
In 2019, the Nelson Government was dealt a serious defeat in the [[2019 Zanuck special election]]. SDP Incumbent Gaston Caperton had died of a heart attack and at the eventual by-election, the SDP experienced the largest single-seat swing for a political party since the adoption of full preferential voting. The result was seen as a wide rebuke of the collective SDP/SSD union brand and triggered calls for Nelson's resignation. At the ensuing leadership election, an upset was seen as backbencher John Fetterman, MC for Stern; was elected leader of the SDP/SSD.
Upon Fetterman's swearing-in, the Union vote experienced a fall in opinion polling to below 30%.
==State of constituencies==
Of the 999 constituencies, 251 were classified 'marginal', where the winning candidate obtained between 50% and 55% of the two-candidate preferred vote. A further 288 were classified as 'probably safe', placing the winning candidate between 55% and 60%. The remaining 460 seats were deemed 'safe' or 'very safe'. Post-election marginal seats are listed below.
{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Marginal Seats|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}
{| class="toccolours" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="float:left; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90%;"
|-
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;"|<span style="color:white;">'''Marginal Government Constituencies'''</span>
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Webster (NH)
| Donna Soucy
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 50.06
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Homestead (FL)
| Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 50.09
|- style="background:#ffeddb;"
| Garner (TX)
| Julian Castro
| SSD
| style="text-align:center;"| 50.12
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Milwaukee (WI)
| Mandela Barnes
| SDP v. GRN
| style="text-align:center;"| 50.19
|- style="background:#ffeddb;"
| Marsalis (LA)
| Mark Johnson
| SSD
| style="text-align:center;"| 50.21
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Saturiwa (FL)
| Garrett Dennis
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 50.23
|- style="background:#ffeddb;"
| Waymon (NC)
| Arthur Wright
| SSD
| style="text-align:center;"| 50.24
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Frederick (MD)
| Donna Kuzemchak
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 50.35
|- style="background:#b3ffb3;"
| Austin North (TX)
| Leslie Pool
| GRN v. SSD
| style="text-align:center;"| 50.37
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Terre Haute (IN)
| John Hamilton
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 50.38
|- style="background:#b3ffb3;"
| San Rafael (CA)
| Maika Gulati
| GRN v. SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 50.46
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Attleboro (MA)
| Paul Heroux
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 50.47
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Blackmun (IL)
| Cheri Bustos
| SDP v. FFA
| style="text-align:center;"| 50.57
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Evansville (IN)
| Missy Mosby
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 51.11
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Adelbert (OH)
| Priscilla Tyson
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 51.12
|- style="background:#b3ffb3;"
| San Francisco North (CA)
| John Avalos
| GRN v. SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 51.14
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Mantcunanjin (NE)
| Leirion Baird
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 51.23
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Athens (GA)
| Kelly Girtz
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 51.29
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Feickart (NJ)
| Jeff Van Drew
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 51.29
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Eartha (FL)
| James O'Brien
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 51.31
|- style="background:#b3ffb3;"
| Manhattan West (NY)
| Cynthia Nixon
| GRN v. FDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 51.33
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Pershing (MO)
| Lyndell Brenton
| SDP v. FFA
| style="text-align:center;"| 51.36
|- style="background:#ffeddb;"
| Blanchard (LA)
| Aprill Foulcard
| SSD
| style="text-align:center;"| 51.49
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Dunwoody (GA)
| Marvin Lim
| SDP v. FDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 51.55
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Chesterfield (MO)
| Jake Zimmerman
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 51.67
|- style="background:#ffeddb;"
| Roseburg (TX)
| Sri Kulkarni
| SSD
| style="text-align:center;"| 51.84
|- style="background:#a4c79d;"
| Rehnquist (WI)
| Chadwick Hawkins
| FFA v. SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 51.94
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Ricker (NH)
| Joyce Craig
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.03
|- style="background:#ffeddb;"
| Florence (SC)
| Theresa Ervin
| SSD
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.07
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Chaney (CO)
| Tara Beiter-Fluhr
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.13
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Philadelphia (PA)
| Brendan Boyle
| SDP v. GRN
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.16
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Redlands (CA)
| Paul Foster
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.16
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Morgan (KY)
| Dave Suetholz
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.17
|- style="background:#b3ffb3;"
| Ann Arbor (MI)
| Yousef Rabhi
| GRN v. SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.25
|- style="background:#b3ffb3;"
| Lahaina (HI)
| Mike Victorino
| GRN v. SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.34
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Enterprise (NV)
| Sandra Jauregui
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.44
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Neuberger (OR)
| Chuck Bennett
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.44
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Caine (UT)
| Ben McAdams
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.46
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Roosevelt (NY)
| Cynthia Doran
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.49
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Heffelfinger (MN)
| Kim Norton
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.53
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Tampa South (FL)
| Bob Henriquez
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.54
|- style="background:#ffeddb;"
| Adolphine (AR)
| Blanche Lincoln
| SSD
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.56
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Fitzgerald (NY)
| Stephen Schultz
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.58
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Muskie (ME)
| Jared Golden
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.59
|- style="background:#ffeddb;"
| Shreveport (AR)
| Adrian Perkins
| SSD
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.65
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Arango (FL)
| Juan Carlos Bermudez
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.71
|- style="background:#a4c79d;"
| Twain (MO)
| Claire McCaskill
| FFA v. CCU
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.72
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Adirondack (NY)
| Tedra Cobb
| SDP v. FFA
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.83
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Etheridge (MI)
| Kathy Thurman
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 52.99
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Watts (FL)
| Stephanie Murphy
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.02
|- style="background:#b3ffb3;"
| Gowanas (NY)
| Stephen Levin
| GRN v. SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.07
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Ashurst(AZ)
| Joan Greene
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.17
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Mirikitani (CA)
| Susan Eggman
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.17
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Carnegie (PA)
| Pam Snyder
| SDP v. FFA
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.19
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Laney (GA)
| Hardie Davis
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.19
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Peratrovich (AK)
| Sara Hannan
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.19
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Fitzsimmons (MI)
| Rosemary Bayer
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.26
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Fort Collins (CO)
| Joe Neguse
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.27
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Labadie (MI)
| Brenda Moore
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.31
|- style="background:#a4c79d;"
| Exon (NE)
| Adrian Smith
| FFA v. DRP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.32
|- style="background:#ffeddb;"
| Huntsville (AL)
| Steve Hettinger
| SSD
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.36
|- style="background:#a4c79d;"
| Tallchief (OK)
| George Pankonin
| FFA v. CCU
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.38
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Stockton (CA)
| Carlos Villapudua
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.39
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Braden (KY)
| Rocky Adkins
| SDP v. CCU
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.43
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Spokane (WA)
| Mary Verner
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.46
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Westminster (MD)
| Jamie Raskin
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.46
|- style="background:#a4c79d;"
| Bodine (ND)
| Heidi Hatkamp
| FFA v. CCU
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.52
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Magnuson (WA)
| Derek Kilmer
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.55
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Poughkeepsie (NY)
| Robert Rolison
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.57
|- style="background:#ffeddb;"
| Westerfield (MS)
| Michael Guest
| SSD
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.64
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Cedar Rapids (IA)
| Kay Halloran
| SDP v. FFA
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.66
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Evanston (IL)
| Daniel Biss
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.68
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Jamestown (VA)
| Ralph Northam
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.68
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| San Francisco South (CA)
| Nancy Pelosi
| SDP v. GRN
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.69
|- style="background:#a4c79d;"
| Frances (WI)
| Sean Duffy
| FFA v. DRP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.70
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Tampa North (FL)
| Kathy Castor
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.84
|- style="background:#a4c79d;"
| Huerta (CA)
| Juan Vargas
| FFA v. DRP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.89
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Tampa West (FL)
| Bob Buckhorn
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.89
|- style="background:#ffeddb;"
| Murfreesboro (TN)
| Jason Cole
| SSD
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.94
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Scottsdale (AZ)
| David Ortega
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.94
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Spaatz (PA)
| Judith Herschel
| SDP v. FFA
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.95
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Talbert (IL)
| Diane Marlin
| SDP v. FFA
| style="text-align:center;"| 53.99
|- style="background:#ffeddb;"
| Eisenhower (TX)
| Rodney Ellis
| SSD
| style="text-align:center;"| 54.02
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Asner (MO)
| Brian Treece
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 54.03
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| Cypress (CA)
| Sharon Quirk-Silva
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 54.11
|- style="background:#fdd;"
| D'Alemberte (FL)
| Stephanie Murphy
| SDP
| style="text-align:center;"| 54.12
|}
{| class="toccolours" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="float:left; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90%;"
|-
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;"|<span style="color:white;">'''Marginal Opposition Constituencies'''</span>
|- style="background:#a6e7ff;"
| Whitney (NJ)
| Kimberly Guadagno
| DRP
| style="text-align:center;"| 50.02
|- style="background:#a6e7ff;"
| Hialeah (FL)
| Carlos Hernández
| DRP
| style="text-align:center;"| 50.03
|- style="background:#a6e7ff;"
| Modesto (CA)
| Heath Flora
| DRP
| style="text-align:center;"| 50.06
|- style="background:#a6e7ff;"
| Fessenden (ME)
| Catherine Conlow
| DRP
| style="text-align:center;"| 50.06
|- style="background:#a6e7ff;"
| Beech(KS)
| Terry Bruce
| DRP v. FFA
| style="text-align:center;"| 50.09
|}
{{hidden end}}
{{clear}}
{{clear}}


Line 956: Line 433:
==Aftermath and Reactions==
==Aftermath and Reactions==
===Domestic===
===Domestic===
{{notelist}}


[[Category: The Less Cursed America Series]]
[[Category: The Less Cursed America Series]]

Latest revision as of 12:01, 24 August 2022

2020 United States general election
← 2015 February 22, 2020 Next →
← Members of the 52nd Congress
Members of the 53rd Congress →
All 1998 seats to the United States Congress
1000 seats needed for a majority
Turnout90.59%
  First party Second party Third party
  Lt. Gov. John Fetterman Portrait (46874790005) (cropped).jpg Mitt Romney official US Senate portrait (cropped and rotated).jpg Kyrsten Sinema (cropped).jpg
Leader John Fetterman Mitt Romney Kyrsten Sinema
Party Social Democratic Party/Southern Social Democrats Democratic Republican Party Free Democratic Party U.S.
Leader since June 29, 2019 January 19, 2016 June 20, 2018
Leader's seat Stern, PA Swenson, UT Arizona at-Large
Seats before 891 663 105
Seats won 783 618 154
Seat change Decrease 118 Decrease 42 Increase 49
Popular vote 87,718,388 69,031,326 17,899,640
Percentage 37.43% 29.45% 7.64%
Swing Decrease 5.95% Decrease 2.68% Increase 2.30
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  Ted Cruz official 116th portrait.jpg Lynneserpe.jpg JonTester.jpg
Leader Ted Cruz Lynne Serpe Jon Tester
Party Christian Conservative Union Greens Party U.S.A. Farmers Federation
Leader since November 2, 2014 July 2, 2017 August 8, 2013
Leader's seat Texas at-Large New York at-Large Haskell, MT
Seats before 106 126 76
Seats won 137 145 102
Seat change Increase 21 Increase 19 Increase 26
Popular vote 17,210,894 16,648,502 13,143,201
Percentage 7.34% 7.10% 5.61%
Swing Increase 2.08 Increase 0.61 Increase 1.23
2020ConstituencyResults.png
Results by winning party by constituency for the U.S. Congress
  SDP   SSD   GRN   FFA   DRP   FDP   CCU   NFP   SOC
Chancellor before election

John Fetterman
[[SDP
(SDP/SSD-GRN Coalition)|SDP
(SDP/SSD-GRN Coalition)]]

Chancellor

John Fetterman
[[SDP
(SDP/SSD-GRN-FFA Coalition)|SDP
(SDP/SSD-GRN-FFA Coalition)]]

The 2020 United States general election was held on February 22, 2020 to elect members of the 53rd Congress of the United States. The election was called following the dissolution of the 52nd Congress elected at the 2015 general election. All 1998 seats of the Congress were up for election.

The second-term SDP-led government was able to enter a historic third-consecutive term by entering into a "Red-Green-Green" coalition with the Greens and Farmers Federation. Without the Farmers Federation, the SDP/SSD-Greens coalition would have been unable to form government as the collective coalition lost a net of 89 seats. Despite this, the SDP/SSD remained the largest parliamentary voting bloc, with a joint 783 seats between them. This was followed by the Democratic Republican Party which saw it's third consecutive election with losses, continuing a decade of losses.

The electoral system in the United States enforces compulsory voting, and uses full-preferential voting for single-member constituency seats with first-past-the-post voting to award at-Large balancing seats. The election was administered by the Federal Electoral Commission.

On election night the result was seen as an aberration as opinion polling had been unable to capture the strong increase in support for non-major parties. Polling had accurately predicted the SDP/SSD would remain the largest party, but had been unable to forecast the full scale of support gained and lost in various states. Opposition Leader Mitt Romney indicated his desire to fight to remain leader of the DRP, but within days a competitive race has emerged to decide the new leader of the DRP. Chancellor John Fetterman indicated he would attempt to form coalition with either the Free Democrats or Farmers, and was able to announce the formation of a coalition six weeks later.

Results

See Also: 2020 United States general election by state

Government (1030)
Coalition
  Social Democratic Party (657)
  Southern Social Democrats (126)
  The Greens (145)
  Farmers Federation (102)

Opposition (618)
  Democratic Republican Party (618)

Crossbench (319)
  Free Democratic Party (154)
  Christian Conservative Union (137)
  National Freedom Party (33)
  Socialist Party (28)
 
Party Votes % Swing (pp) Seats Change (seats)
C A T
  Social Democratic Union
  Social Democratic 73,779,189 31.48 −5.26 424 233 657 Decrease 105
  Southern Social Democrats 13,939,199 5.95 −0.69 81 45 126 Decrease 13
Union Total 87,718,388 37.43 −5.95 505 278 783 Decrease 118
  Democratic Republican 69,031,326 29.45 −2.68 365 251 616 Decrease 42
  Free Democratic 17,899,640 7.64 +2.30 9 145 154 Increase 49
  Christian Conservative Union 17,210,894 7.34 +2.08 51 86 137 Increase 36
  The Greens 16,648,502 7.10 +0.61 20 125 145 Increase 19
  Farmers Federation 13,143,201 5.61 +1.23 46 56 102 Increase 26
  Socialist 6,764,540 2.89 −0.13 1 27 28 Decrease 3
  National Freedom 5,952,839 2.54 +2.54 2 31 33 Increase 33
Turnout 234,369,207 90.59 +0.04 – – – –
Registered voters/turnout 258,715,972 – – – – – –
Nationwide party vote
Social Democratic Union
 
 37.43%
Democratic Republican
 
 29.45%
Free Democratic
 
 7.64%
Christian Conservative Union
 
 7.34%
The Greens
 
 7.10%
Farmers Federation
 
 5.61%
Socialist
 
 2.89%
National Freedom
 
 2.54%
Constituency two-party-preferred vote
Social Democratic Union
 
 52.11%
Democratic Republican
 
 47.89%
Congressional Total Seats
Social Democratic Union
 
 39.19%
Democratic Republican
 
 30.83%
Free Democratic
 
 7.71%
Christian Conservative Union
 
 6.86%
The Greens
 
 7.26%
Farmers Federation
 
 5.11%
Socialist
 
 1.40%
National Freedom
 
 1.65%

Background

Previous Election

At the 2015 United States general election, first-term Chancellor Barack Obama was able to form government for a second term by entering a coalition with the Greens. It had been apparent on election night the Social Democrats had lost their near-majority status and would need to enter formal coalition talks. Also at the 2015 election, independent MC for Manhattan West Michael Bloomberg was unseated by Cynthia Nixon who won the seat for the Greens. This constituted the first Congress since 1923, to have no non-partisan independent MCs. For the first time ever in U.S. history, two consecutive Congresses featured no independent MCs although independent candidate for Manhattan West, Donald Trump, was the closest independent candidate for a constituency seat.

Barack Obama announced a coalition with the Greens in early November, three weeks after the election.

Union Instability

Since the formation of the Southern Social Democrats in the early 1970s as a separate brand of Social Democratic candidates, the demarcation line had been strictly enforced. The line explicitly curtailed the national Social Democratic Party from attempting to coerce the affiliation of state, county or sub-branches of the Southern Social Democrats to defect and instead elect delegates and participate in the SDP ecosystem. This line was first eroded at the 1998 Conference, where a majority of delegates from Florida voted to amend the provisions required, and return the state branch of the Southern Social Democrats into the national Social Democratic Party. In 2004, efforts to draw away Texas, narrowly failed. In 2012, shortly into the Obama Chancellery, the Georgia branch of the SSD defected and in 2014, Oklahoma followed suit - though the two did so for wildly different reasons. In Georgia, an influx of urban Social Democrats, with opinions closer to the national median than the Southern median took control of the branch while in Oklahoma, the continued decline of the party saw cosmopolitan delegations outweigh conservative factions and in turn both branches were returned into the SDP proper by the 2015 general election.

At the 2015 general election, the Union was re-elected to a second term in coalition with the Greens. Then-Chancellor Barack Obama retired in 2017 and was succeeded by Obama-ally Terry McAuliffe of Virginia. McAuliffe had overseen the affiliation of the SSD-Virginia to the SDP ahead of the 2016 Social Democratic Union Convention. The continued decline of the SSD was met with strong demands from SSD MCs, hence McAuliffe who had been the subject of disapproval by SSD leadership and caucus members, was dismissed six months into his tenure. He would be succeeded by Bill Nelson (MC for Florida). Nelson was widely seen as a stand-in among the public due to his age and hence, the anticipation was that there would be a full party ballot for Union Leader in the 2018 convention. This proved inaccurate, as with no consensus candidate as an alternative, no ballot was ordered for the leadership of the party.

In 2019, the Nelson Government was dealt a serious defeat in the 2019 Zanuck special election. SDP Incumbent Gaston Caperton had died of a heart attack and at the eventual by-election, the SDP experienced the largest single-seat swing for a political party since the adoption of full preferential voting. The result was seen as a wide rebuke of the collective SDP/SSD union brand and triggered calls for Nelson's resignation. At the ensuing leadership election, an upset was seen as backbencher John Fetterman, MC for Stern; was elected leader of the SDP/SSD.

Upon Fetterman's swearing-in, the Union vote experienced a fall in opinion polling to below 30%.

Constituencies changing parties

See Also: Post-election pendulum for the 2020 United States general election

Members in italics did not re-contest their Congressional seats at this election.

Gained by Social Democratic Union

Gained by Democratic Republicans

Gained by Free Democratic Party

Gained by Christian Conservative Union

Gained by the Greens

Gained by Farmers Federation

Gained by Socialist Party

Gained by National Freedom Party

Seat Pre-election Swing Post-election
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Holman, TX Democratic Republican Brian Babin [a] 14.08 21.57 7.49 Trent Ashby National Freedom
Menchaca, TX Democratic Republican Mac Thornberry [b] 6.85 16.37 9.52 Paul Searl National Freedom
Seat Pre-election Swing Post-election
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Sequoyah, TN Democratic Republican Lamar Alexander 9.10 11.52 2.42 Ailene Combs Christian Conservative
Rosenburg, TX Democratic Republican Pete Olson 1.41 3.28 1.84 Sri Kulkarni Southern Social Democrats

Retiring members

In the United States, constituency seats have a historical tendency to favor incumbents against the national partisan swing. Hence, seats where incumbents announce their retirements, are noted as potentially more competitive. The below are constituency electorates with incumbent MCs who retired and did not recontest their election.

Social Democratic

  • Tom Udall (Bandelier, NM) - announced retirement March 25, 2019.
  • Jose Serrano (Feynman, NY) - announced retirement March 25, 2019.
  • Susan Davis (San Diego East, CA) - announced retirement September 4, 2019.
  • Nita Lowey (Westchester, NY) - announced retirement October 10, 2019.
  • Peter Visclosky (Gary, IN) - announced retirement November 6, 2019.

Southern Social Democrats

Democratic Republican

  • Lamar Alexander (Sequoyah, TN) - announced retirement December 17, 2018.
  • Mike Enzi (Knapp, WY) - announced retirement May 4, 2019.
  • Rob Woodall (Buford, GA) - announced retirement February 7, 2019.
  • Susan Brooks (Mulinnix, IN) - announced retirement June 14, 2019.
  • Paul Mitchell (Adela, MI) - announced retirement July 24, 2019.
  • Pete Olson (Rosenburg, TX) - announced retirement July 25, 2019.
  • Martha Roby (Baskin, AL) - announced retirement July 26, 2019.
  • Mike Conaway (Holelamp, TX) - announced retirement July 30, 2019.
  • Will Hurd (Ximenes, TX) - announced retirement August 1, 2019.
  • Kenny Marchant (Colleyville, TX) - announced retirement August 5, 2019.
  • John Shimkus (Effingham, IL) - announced retirement August 30, 2019.
  • Bill Flores (Waco, TX) - announced retirement September 4, 2019.
  • Jim Sensenbrenner (Welles, WI) - announced retirement September 4, 2019.
  • Francis Rooney (Naples, FL) - announced retirement October 19, 2019.
  • Peter King (Hempstead, NY) - announced retirement November 11, 2019.

Others

Farmers Federation

  • Pat Roberts (Layton, KS) - announced retirement January 4, 2019.
  • Dave Loebsack (Carothers, IA) - announced retirement April 12, 2019.
  • Greg Walden (Peyton, OR) - announced retirement October 28, 2019.

Analysis

Election date

Constitutional and legal provisions

Election timeline

Major endorsements

Aftermath and Reactions

Domestic

  1. ↑ Margin of 14.08 v. Southern Social Democrats
  2. ↑ Margin of 6.85 v. Farmers Federation
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