2022 Holyn-Kifathe crisis

2022 Holyn-Kifathe crisis
Part of the Kifathe Civil War
Date 2 June 2022 - present Location Skoskie, Holynia and Kifathe border Status Ongoing
Belligerents
Holynia CUK Support: Wrutesh	Kifathe Support: Simtambe West Wrutesh	BTUW
Commanders and leaders
Renáta Mišurová (PM) Oliver Rezek(DM) Rostislav Čanda(FM) Miloš Stejskal(CODS) Václav Holeček(LC) Hodari Ekwensi Hansie Cloete	Shany Okiro Bongani Nqobani	Jaleel Nnamani Zuwena Bamgboshe
Strength
Holynia: 530,871 (Active military) 821,703 (Reserve) 62,187 (Skoskie Guard) 81,000 (Royal Skoskie Police) 35,000 to 45,000 active and reserve personnel deployed to Skoskie. CUK 15,000 Wrutesh: 71,043 (Active military) 15,100 (Reserve) 105,000 (Paramilitary)	Kifathe: 270,000 (Active military) 500,000 (Reserve) 1,000,000 (Militia) 75,000 (National Police)	File:Flag of Lith uania.svg WSLF: 19,500 rebels

The government of the Holyn Kingdom began deploying additional mililtary assets to its overseas territory of Skoskie beginning in June 2022. The Holyn government became increasingly worried about spillover of the Kifathe Civil War into its overseas territory of Skoskie.

Background

Skoskie rejoined Holynia in 2001, becoming an overseas territory and losing its sovereignty. The reunification meant Holynia assumed Skoskie's fraught relations with its neighbors. The three black Navronian states that bordered Skoskie; Tichone, Kifathe and West Wrutesh, were extremely uneasy now that Skoskie was formally under the nuclear umbrella of Holynia. The military power of Holynia, even in its damaged state in the early 2000s, was still a formidible force. Skoskie, along with Wrutesh, another white Navron led nation, collaborated to form West Wrutesh. West Wrutesh was granted self rule and was sold to both the domestic populations in Skoskie and Wrutesh as a humanitarian act. Both countries forcibly deported over 8 million black Navronians in the 1970s and 80s.

This led to tensions with the black Navronian states even before the reunification of Skoskie. Tensions grew in the 1990s as an armed insurgency began to take hold in Skoskie. Armed rebel groups attacked Skoskie/Holyn government facilities and conducted a bombing campaign against civilian targets. The insurgency was disorganized and lacked cohesive leadership. The reunification with Holynia saw mainland intelligence forces organized to counter the rebel groups. The security situation in Skoskie improved in the 2000s, as the neighboring Navronian states declined to send weaponry to the rebels in Skoskie.

Skoskie itself was responsible for military attacks on both West Wrutesh and Kifathe. As recently as 1999, Skoskie had launched air raids on Kifathe against black Navronian militant camps. In 2004, President Kamili Bankole was assasinated by the MKU rebel group. This sparked the First Kifathe Civil War. At the time, Holynia supported the government of Kifathe, now led by President Hassian Eze. Relations between Holynia and Kifathe warmed during Andrej Sedláček's Premiership of Holynia in the latter half the 2000s. An anti-poaching task force was formed in 2007. Import tarrifs were reduced by Holynia on goods imported from Kifathe. Several additional trade deals were signed for Holyn companies to explore mining areas in Kifathe.

In 2018, the outbreak of the second Kifathe Civil War saw a refugee crisis hit the region. Prime Minister Štefan Jahnátek directed the government to declare a critical situation, which is a step below a state of emergency. This allowed emergency resources to be directed to the region to handle the influx of refugees. The decision sparked backlash in Holynia and was used by opposition parties to attack government policy.

In the aftermath of the Holyn 2019 general election, the conservative National Renewal Party gained an outright majority in parliament. Renáta Mišurová was appointed Prime Minister and embarked on a major shift in foreign policy.

The Chama cha Ukombozi Kifathe (CUK) rebel group used intermediaries to conduct secret negotiations with the Holyn government in late 2019. The CUK was a rebel group in Kifathe comprised from the Nulu ethnic group in Kifathe. The group reportedly reached an agreement with the Holyn government for weaponry and training. The Foreign Intelligence Service of Holynia began covert support of the group in 2020, according to a Cuscan Intelligence Agency report. Holyn special forces operators held training sessions for CUK rebels and arranged weapon deliveries in Skoskie.

On 21 January 2021, Holyn strike aircraft crossed the border into Kifathe and attacked a weapons depot south of Kantampu. A second strike occurred on 26 January, hitting a Republican Guard base outside of Orugin. Kifathe severed diplomatic ties with Holynia in response. The Holyn government defended the strikes, stating these weapons were to be turned over to anti-Holyn groups in Skoskie.

Initial tensions

In November 2021, the Skoskie Guard and Holyn Border Guard Service constructed additional fortifications along the border with Kifathe. Refugees from the conflict had attempted to cross the border into Skoskie in December 2021. Border Guards and Police fired tear gas at migrant groups attempting to cross. On 12 December, Július Mokrý, Minister of Public Security, closed the Skoskie border with Kifathe for 90 days. The following day, the border with West Wrutesh was closed.

Upheaval at the border continued despite the formal closing. On 27 December 2021, Minister of Defence Oliver Rezek announced that Holyn Ground Forces personnel would assist in border security duties in Skoskie. 2,000 personnel from the 14th Seperate Motor Rifle Brigade were deployed to Skoskie. They arrived on 5 January 2022, being airlifted by 91st Transport Aviation Brigade and chartered civilian aircraft. A contingent of the 124th Motor Rifle Brigade, based in Skoskie, was deployed alongside the 14th Seperate Motor Rifle Brigade.

On 12 February 2022, Kifathe government officials accused Holynia of harboring Hodari Ekwensi, leader of the Chama cha Ukombozi Kifathe, the second largest rebel group in Kifathe. On 15 February, Kifathe President Shany Okiro detailed evidence of modern weaponry and equipment produced in Holynia found on CUK fighters.

Amid growing tensions between Holynia and Kifathe, footage emerged of Holyn and Wrutesh mercenaries training and advising CUK rebels. Some of the Holyn mercenaries were confirmed to be former members of the Holyn Štrkáč special forces unit.

Holyn military buildup

In March 2022, 76th Long Range Aviation Brigade, based in Skoskie, began conducting airborne patrols along the border with Kifathe. These aircraft also approached Kifathe airspace from the northwest after flying around the Wrutesh peninsula. Kifathe President Okiro called the actions "destabilising". The growing presence of Holyn military assets in Skoskie began to be noticed by the foreign community during this time.

On 25 March, Holyn Prime Minister Renáta Mišurová addressed Parliament, stating the the situation in Kifathe continued to deteriate, with various rebel groups threatening to topple the government of President Okiro. Mišurová stated the Holyn military would increase its presence in Skoskie to deter "dangerous actions" against the territory.

Prime Minister Mišurová spoke with President Okiro on 27 March, where both leaders failed to agree on terms to reduce tensions. Holynia reportedly demanded the Kifathe government sign a peace deal with the CUK and focus the fight on the WSLF.

In April, a flotilla of transport ships left Holynia, reportedly carrying hundreds of vehicles and equipment to Skoskie. A dozen transport aircraft began flying daily flights between Holynia and Skoskie. Several civilian airlines, including Holavia and Interfly, reported reduced fleet availability because of government capacity requirements under the Civil-Military Assistance Agreement. The voluntary CMAA requires signatory airlines to offer aircraft for military charters at 50% of standard charter rates. 8 airliners, 4 from Holavia, 3 from Interfly and 1 from Holyn Air Cargo, were chartered to fly military personnel to and from Skoskie from May 2022 to July 2022. An additional 2 airliners, both from Interfly, were chartered in May.

On 15 May, Cuscan Central Intelligence Agency Director Fernando Valladares reported that Holynia had deployed roughly 15,000 troops to Skoskie, in addition to the 20,000 permanently stationed there.

On 4 June, ensions grew when a shopping mall in Mundosa was attacked by rebels with the BTUW affiliated group Mbele ya Ukombozi (Liberation Front). In response, Holyn warship HMS Malenitz launched three cruise missiles at positions of the MU inside Kifathe.

Additional transport ships left ports in mainland Holynia carrying military equipment on June 20th, arriving in Skoskie on June 26th. Transport aircraft also airlifted some equipment to Skoskie during this period.

On 10 July, the Cuscan Central Intelligence Agency reported that roughly 80,000 Holyn troops had been assembled in Skoskie. The Holyn Ministry of Defence reported on the construction of two temporary military bases near the border with Kifathe, which would house roughly 5,000 troops. This was a result of all available military bases in the territory being at capacity.

Combat aircraft began to arrive throughout July. Members of the Holyn parliament requested information on the ongoing activities in Skoskie. In respone, Defence Minister Oliver Rezek stated military action against Kifathe was "on the table". Prime Minister Misurova expanded on this, stating the ongoing violence in Kifathe and refugee crisis would lead to an "unacceptable regional dillemma" which could threaten Skoskie. The Holyn government declared military action would be a last resort action, but the security of Skoskie was "paramount".

In late July, reports began to emerge that Holyn soldiers had been ordered to prepare for an invasion of Kifathe.

On 27th July, Cuscan intelligence reported that the Holyn military had retroffited a vacant office complex in eastern Skoskie into a military hospital. Satellite imagery showed a makeshift runway had been constructed next to the hospital. Helipads were constructed on the roof of the building, while an additional motorway off-ramp was constructed to provide additional access. The following day, the Holyn military confirmed a military hospital had been constructed to support potential "hostilities".

Escalation

On 7 August, Holyn Border Guards reportedly engaged in a shootout with Kifathe Police. Kifathe Foreign Minister Johannes Iwu stated that Holyn forces attacked a Kifathe border checkpoint. Oliver Rezek, Holyn Defence Minister, said Kifathe police fired at Holyn Border Guards. On 15 August, a Holyn Border Guards vehicle was destroyed by a landmine, killing 3 Holyn Guards. Prime Minister Misurova ordered an investigation to discover the source of the mine. A second shootout between Holyn Border Guards and forces inside Kifathe was reported on 16 August.

Refugees from Kifathe began crossing the border into West Wrutesh and Simtambe. The Simtambe government mobilised military reserves to deal with the influx of refugees. Fears of a Holyn attack on Kifathe saw the value of the Kifathe Kwacha drop.

On 25 August, Kifathe government troops withdrew from several villages in the north of the country, ceding territory to the WSLF and BTUW. The 18 and 72 Brigades of the Kifathe Republican Guard were spotted moving towards the southern border with Skoskie. On 3 September, Kifathe troops were spotted building defences around the cities of Bambala and Gwavira.

Invasion

Main article: 2022 Holyn invasion of Kifathe

On 5 September, Holyn Prime Minister Renata Misurova made an address on national television where she announced the start of military operations to "secure the territory of Skoskie and end hostilities in Kifathe". Holyn cruise missiles began to be launched from stationed warships in the Gulf of Tammer. These missiles targeted military bases throughout Kifathe. Holyn aircraft began to launch air strikes on air defenses located in southern Kifathe.

Later on 5 September, the government proposed a motion to deploy Holyn troops to Kifathe to "stabilise the situation". Opposition parties and anti-war government MPs delayed voting on the bill, however, failed to prevent the motion being passed. On 6 September, the legislation received royal assent. On 6 September, Holyn Aero Stežery AS-94 fighter bombers attacked targets in the city of Lumegesa.

A Holyn MLRS system launching rockets at Kifathe.