2022 Arabin Senate elections: Difference between revisions

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| style="background: {{Republican Party (Arabi)/meta/color}} |
| style="background: {{Republican Party (Arabi)/meta/color}} |
| '''[[Republican Party (Arabi)|Republican]]'''
| '''[[Republican Party (Arabi)|Republican]]'''
| '''Robert Nelson'''
| '''Robert Nelson''' ({{wp|incumbent}})
| '''362,587'''
| '''362,587'''
| '''62.68'''
| '''62.68'''
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| style="background: {{Democratic Party (Arabi)/meta/color}} |  
| style="background: {{Democratic Party (Arabi)/meta/color}} |  
| [[Democratic Party (Arabi)|Democratic]]  
| [[Democratic Party (Arabi)|Democratic]]  
| Diane Devalle  
| Diane Devalle ({{wp|incumbent}})
| 324,588
| 324,588
| 47.81
| 47.81
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| style="background: {{Democratic Party (Arabi)/meta/color}} |
| style="background: {{Democratic Party (Arabi)/meta/color}} |
| '''[[Democratic Party (Arabi)|Democratic]]'''
| '''[[Democratic Party (Arabi)|Democratic]]'''
| '''Tamala Natal'''
| '''Tamala Natal''' ({{wp|incumbent}})
| '''1,096,857'''
| '''1,096,857'''
| '''55.94'''
| '''55.94'''
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| style="background: {{Democratic Party (Arabi)/meta/color}} |
| style="background: {{Democratic Party (Arabi)/meta/color}} |
| '''[[Democratic Party (Arabi)|Democratic]]'''
| '''[[Democratic Party (Arabi)|Democratic]]'''
| '''Sebastian Whittaker'''
| '''Sebastian Whittaker''' ({{wp|incumbent}})
| '''4,639,985'''
| '''4,639,985'''
| '''59.90'''
| '''59.90'''
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| style="background: {{Republican Party (Arabi)/meta/color}} |
| style="background: {{Republican Party (Arabi)/meta/color}} |
| '''[[Republican Party (Arabi)|Republican]]'''
| '''[[Republican Party (Arabi)|Republican]]'''
| '''Sylvia Ireland'''
| '''Sylvia Ireland''' ({{wp|incumbent}})
| '''875,145'''
| '''875,145'''
| '''50.66'''
| '''50.66'''
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| style="background: {{Democratic Party (Arabi)/meta/color}} |
| style="background: {{Democratic Party (Arabi)/meta/color}} |
| '''[[Democratic Party (Arabi)|Democratic]]'''
| '''[[Democratic Party (Arabi)|Democratic]]'''
| '''Justine Greer'''
| '''Justine Greer''' ({{wp|incumbent}})
| '''936,351'''
| '''936,351'''
| '''50.14'''
| '''50.14'''
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| style="background: {{Republican Party (Arabi)/meta/color}} |
| style="background: {{Republican Party (Arabi)/meta/color}} |
| '''[[Republican Party (Arabi)|Republican]]'''
| '''[[Republican Party (Arabi)|Republican]]'''
| '''Kiera Shepard'''
| '''Kiera Shepard''' ({{wp|incumbent}})
| '''452,598'''
| '''452,598'''
| '''63.00'''
| '''63.00'''
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| style="background: {{Democratic Party (Arabi)/meta/color}} |  
| style="background: {{Democratic Party (Arabi)/meta/color}} |  
| [[Democratic Party (Arabi)|Democratic]]  
| [[Democratic Party (Arabi)|Democratic]]  
| Brenda Castro  
| Brenda Castro ({{wp|incumbent}})
| 1,452,598
| 1,452,598
| 38.68
| 38.68
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| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R}}
|-
|-
! [[New Plymouth (Arabi)|New Plymouth]]
! [[New Plymouth (Arabi)|New Plymouth]] <br> (special)
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Greer, Justine" | Justine Greer
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Greer, Justine" | Justine Greer
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|R|flip}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|R|flip}}

Latest revision as of 04:15, 24 December 2022

For related races, see 2022 Arabin elections and 2022 Arabin presidential election.
2022 Arabin Senate elections
← 2020 December 3, 2022 2024 →
12 of the 32 seats in the Arabin Senate
17[1] seats needed for a majority
  Majority party Minority party
  Default male Arabi.jpg Default female Arabi.jpg
Leader Spencer Pickering Mary Nichols
Party Republican Democratic
Leader since December 19, 2022 January 8, 2017
Leader's seat Dellcourt Saint George
Seats before 15 17
Seats after 17 15
Seat change Increase 2 Decrease 2
Seats up 6 6
Races won 2 2
2022 Arabin Senate election results.png
     Democratic hold      Democratic gain
     Republican hold      Republican gain
     No election
Majority Leader before election

Mary Nichols
Democratic

Elected Majority Leader

Spencer Pickering
Republican

The 2022 Arabin Senate elctions were held on December 3, 2022, with the 11 class 2 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections and 1 class 3 seat being contested in a special election.[2] The winners will be elected to six-year terms starting from January 5, 2023, to January 5, 2029.

Results

Burberry
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Robert Nelson (incumbent) 362,587 62.68
Democratic Gabriel Joyce 215,875 37.32
Dartmoor
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Benoit 354,287 52.19
Democratic Diane Devalle (incumbent) 324,588 47.81
Drakeland
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Scott Barnes 778,524 72.01
Democratic Sean Sheppard 302,568 27.99
Lochcoast
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tamala Natal (incumbent) 1,096,857 55.94
Republican Kenneth Johnson 863,987 44.06
New Bristol
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Paul Austin 2,036,987 50.85
Republican Jaime Rojas 1,968,587 49.15
New Cambridge
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Sebastian Whittaker (incumbent) 4,639,985 59.90
Republican Daphne Brannon 3,106,358 40.10
New London
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Sylvia Ireland (incumbent) 875,145 50.66
Democratic Ryan Spencer 852,325 49.34
New Plymouth
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Justine Greer (incumbent) 936,351 50.14
Republican Alyssa Reed 931,206 49.86
Owens
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Erin Cooper 2,012,012 53.59
Democratic Peter Rowley 1,742,539 46.41
Terranova
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kiera Shepard (incumbent) 452,598 63.00
Democratic Spencer Williamson 265,858 37.00
Walpole
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mollie Connor 2,302,588 61.32
Democratic Brenda Castro (incumbent) 1,452,598 38.68
Welwald
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Demi Slater 817,526 58.73
Democratic Mark Kirk 574,587 41.27

Predictions

Listed below are predictions by three organizations that regularly researches polling data.

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely"": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe"": near-certain chance of victory
State Senator 2022 election ratings
Arabin News
Journal
March 28, 2022 		Political
Forecasting
April 1, 2022 		PolitiTrade
March 21, 2022
Burberry Robert Nelson Likely R Likely R Likely R
Dartmoor Diane Devalle Likely D Tossup Tilt R (flip)
Drakeland Luca Sutton
(retiring) 		Tilt R Lean R Tossup
Lochcoast Tamala Natal Safe D Likely D Safe D
New Bristol Sean Blackburn
(retiring) 		Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Tossup
New Cambridge Sebastian Whittaker Safe D Safe D Likely D
New London Sylvia Ireland Tossup Lean R Lean R
New Plymouth
(special) 		Justine Greer Tilt R (flip) Tilt D Tossup
Owens Randy Elliot
(retiring) 		Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup
Terranova Kiera Shepard Likely R Tilt R Lean R
Walpole Brenda Castro Tilt R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Tilt D
Welwald Victoria Bailey
(retiring) 		Tilt R Tossup Lean R
Overall D - 15
R - 16
1 tossup 		D - 15
R - 14
3 tossups 		D - 14
R - 14
4 tossups

Election dates

Bold indicates a future date.

State Filing deadline
for candidates 		Primary
election 		General
election 		Poll closing
Burberry January 1, 2022 April 16, 2022 December 3, 2022
7:00pm
AST
Dartmoor December 15, 2021 June 11, 2022
Drakeland February 1, 2022 May 14, 2022
Lochcoast February 1, 2022 April 30, 2022
New Bristol December 2, 2021 March 12, 2022
New Cambridge November 30, 2021 June 18, 2022
New London January 5, 2022 May 28, 2022
New Plymouth January 3, 2022 April 9, 2022
Owens December 13, 2021 March 19, 2022
Terranova December 20, 2021 April 2, 2022
Walpole February 3, 2022 May 7, 2022
Welwald January 10, 2022 June 25, 2022

Notes

  1. ↑ 16 plus the vice president
  2. ↑ Robert Stephens became vice president on October 1, 2021, vacating his senate seat. His successor, Justine Greer, has announced she will run for the seat to fill the remainder of the term.
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