2024 Arabin Senate elections

2024 Arabin Senate elections

December 7, 2024
11 of the 32 seats in the Arabin Senate 17 seats needed for a majority
Leader Spencer Pickering Mary Nichols Party Republican Democratic Leader since December 19, 2022 January 8, 2017 Leader's seat Dellcourt Saint George Current seats 17 15 Seats needed 2 Seats up 6 5
Democratic incumbent      Republican incumbent      No election Circular inset (Windsor): both seats up for election
Incumbent Majority Leader Spencer Pickering Republican

The 2024 Arabin Senate elections are scheduled to be held on December 7, 2024, during the 2024 Arabin elections. 10 of the 32 seats in the Senate will be contested in regular elections, the winners will serve six-year terms in the Arabin Congress from January 5, 2025, to January 5, 2031. A special election will be held concurrently to fill the seat vacated by Lucien Orton who resigned to become president. The winner of the special election will serve the remainder of term until 2027. Senators are sorted into three classes with staggered terms so diffrent classes are elected every two years. Class 3 senators, who were last elected in 2018, will be up for election in 2024. Other federal, state, and local elections will also be held concurrently.

As of November 22, 2024, no Senators have announced plans to retire and all are expected to run for re-election.

Partisan structure

All 10 Class 3 Senate seats and one Class 1 seat are up for election in 2024; Class 3 currently consists of 5 Democrats and 6 Republicans.

Predictions

• "tossup": no advantage
• "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
• "lean": slight advantage
• "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
• "safe": near-certain chance of victory

Constituency	Incumbent	Ratings
State	Senator	Arabin News Journal October 16, 2023	Political Forecasting October 26, 2023	PolitiTrade November 1, 2023
Dellcourt	Eloise Carey	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
Drakeland	Louie Richards	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R
New London	Harry Bradshaw	Tossup	Likely R	Lean R
New Plymouth	Justine Greer	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D
Saint George	Julio Vance	Tossup	Lean D (flip)	Tilt R
Severn	Melissa Townsend	Lean D	Tossup	Lean D
Terranova	Gerard Albert	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt R (flip)
Walpole	Elois Neal	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R
Welwald	Maddison Davidson	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R
Windsor (regular)	Joel Dunn	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D
Windsor (special)	Jessica Downey	Tilt D (flip)	Tossup	Tossup
Overall		D - 15 R - 14 3 tossup	D - 14 R - 15 3 tossup	D - 14 R - 17 1 tossup

See also

• 2024 Arabin elections