2024 Arabin Senate elections: Difference between revisions

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== Partisan structure ==
== Partisan structure ==
All 10 Class 3 Senate seats and one Class 1 seat are up for election in 2024; Class 3 currently consists of 5 Democrats and 5 Republicans. The one Class 1 seat is currently vacant and awaiting a gubernatorial appointment.
All 10 Class 3 Senate seats and one Class 1 seat are up for election in 2024; Class 3 currently consists of 5 Democrats and 6 Republicans.


== Predictions ==
== Predictions ==
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! State
! State
! Senator
! Senator
! <!--(1)--> Arabin News <br/> Journal <br/> {{small|October 16, 2023}}
! <!--(1)--> Arabin News <br/> Journal <br/> {{small|May 3, 2024}}
! <!--(2)--> [[Political Forecasting (Arabi)|Political <br/> Forecasting]] <br/> {{small|October 26, 2023}}
! <!--(2)--> [[Political Forecasting (Arabi)|Political <br/> Forecasting]] <br/> {{small|May 15, 2024}}
! <!--(3)--> PolitiTrade <br/> {{small|November 1, 2023}}
! <!--(3)--> PolitiTrade <br/> {{small|May 27, 2024}}
|-
|-
! [[Dellcourt (Arabi)|Dellcourt]]
! [[Dellcourt (Arabi)|Dellcourt]]
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Carey, Eloise" | Eloise Carey
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Carey, Eloise" | Eloise Carey
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|D}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|D}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|D}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|D}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|D}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|D}}
|-
|-
! [[Drakeland (Arabi)|Drakeland]]
! [[Drakeland (Arabi)|Drakeland]]
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Richards, Louie" | Louie Richards
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Richards, Louie" | Louie Richards
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|R}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|R}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|R}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|R}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|R}}
|-
|-
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| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Bradshaw, Harry" | Harry Bradshaw
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Bradshaw, Harry" | Harry Bradshaw
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|R}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|D|flip}}
|-
|-
! [[New Plymouth (Arabi)|New Plymouth]]
! [[New Plymouth (Arabi)|New Plymouth]]
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Greer, Justine" | Justine Greer
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Greer, Justine" | Justine Greer
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|D}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|D}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|D}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|D}}
|-
|-
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| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Vance, Julio" | Julio Vance
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Vance, Julio" | Julio Vance
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|D|flip}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|R}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
|-
|-
! [[Severn (Arabi)|Severn]]
! [[Severn (Arabi)|Severn]]
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Townsend, Melissa" | Melissa Townsend
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Townsend, Melissa" | Melissa Townsend
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|D}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|D}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|D}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|R|flip}}
|-
|-
! [[Terranova (Arabi)|Terranova]]
! [[Terranova (Arabi)|Terranova]]
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| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|R|flip}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
|-
|-
! [[Walpole (Arabi)|Walpole]]
! [[Walpole (Arabi)|Walpole]]
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Neal, Elois" | Elois Neal
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Neal, Elois" | Elois Neal
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|R}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|R}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
|-
|-
! [[Welwald (Arabi)|Welwald]]
! [[Welwald (Arabi)|Welwald]]
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Davidson, Maddison" | Maddison Davidson
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Davidson, Maddison" | Maddison Davidson
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|R}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|R}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|R}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|R}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|R}}
|-
|-
! [[Windsor (Arabi)|Windsor]] <br> (regular)
! [[Windsor (Arabi)|Windsor]] <br> (regular)
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Dunn, Joel" | Joel Dunn
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Dunn, Joel" | Joel Dunn
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|D}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|D}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|D}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|D}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|D}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|D}}
|-
|-
! [[Windsor (Arabi)|Windsor]] <br> (special)
! [[Windsor (Arabi)|Windsor]] <br> (special)
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Downey, Jessica" | Jessica Downey
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Downey, Jessica" | Jessica Downey
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|D|flip}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|R}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
|-
|-
! colspan=2 | Overall
! colspan=2 | Overall
<!--ANJ-->| D - 15<br/>R - 14 <br/> 3 tossup
<!--ANJ-->| D - 13<br/>R - 14 <br/> 5 tossup
<!--PF-->| D - 14 <br/>R - 15 <br/> 3 tossup
<!--PF-->| D - 12 <br/>R - 14 <br/> 6 tossup
<!--PT-->| D - 14 <br/>'''R - 17''' <br/> 1 tossup
<!--PT-->| D - 14 <br/>R - 14 <br/> 4 tossup
|}
|}
== See also ==
*[[2024 Arabin elections]]


== Notes ==
== Notes ==
{{reflist}}
{{reflist}}

Latest revision as of 20:59, 1 June 2024

2024 Arabin Senate elections
← 2022 December 7, 2024 2026 →
11 of the 32 seats in the Arabin Senate
17[1] seats needed for a majority
  Default male Arabi.jpg Default female Arabi.jpg
Leader Spencer Pickering Mary Nichols
Party Republican Democratic
Leader since December 19, 2022 January 8, 2017
Leader's seat Dellcourt Saint George
Current seats 17 15
Seats needed Steady Increase 2
Seats up 6 5
Arabin Senate elections, 2024.png
     Democratic incumbent      Republican incumbent
     No election
Circular inset (Windsor): both seats up for election
Incumbent Majority Leader

Spencer Pickering
Republican



The 2024 Arabin Senate elections are scheduled to be held on December 7, 2024, during the 2024 Arabin elections. 10 of the 32 seats in the Senate will be contested in regular elections, the winners will serve six-year terms in the Arabin Congress from January 5, 2025, to January 5, 2031. A special election will be held concurrently to fill the seat vacated by Lucien Orton who resigned to become president. The winner of the special election will serve the remainder of term until 2027. Senators are sorted into three classes with staggered terms so diffrent classes are elected every two years. Class 3 senators, who were last elected in 2018, will be up for election in 2024. Other federal, state, and local elections will also be held concurrently.

As of November 22, 2024, no Senators have announced plans to retire and all are expected to run for re-election.

Partisan structure

All 10 Class 3 Senate seats and one Class 1 seat are up for election in 2024; Class 3 currently consists of 5 Democrats and 6 Republicans.

Predictions

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe": near-certain chance of victory
Constituency Incumbent Ratings
State Senator Arabin News
Journal
May 3, 2024 		Political
Forecasting
May 15, 2024 		PolitiTrade
May 27, 2024
Dellcourt Eloise Carey Safe D Likely D Safe D
Drakeland Louie Richards Likely R Likely R Safe R
New London Harry Bradshaw Tossup Tossup Tilt D (flip)
New Plymouth Justine Greer Tossup Tossup Lean D
Saint George Julio Vance Tossup Tossup Tossup
Severn Melissa Townsend Likely D Tossup Tilt R (flip)
Terranova Gerard Albert Tossup Tossup Tossup
Walpole Elois Neal Tilt R Lean R Tossup
Welwald Maddison Davidson Tossup Tilt R Tilt R
Windsor
(regular) 		Joel Dunn Lean D Tilt D Tilt D
Windsor
(special) 		Jessica Downey Tilt R Tossup Tossup
Overall D - 13
R - 14
5 tossup 		D - 12
R - 14
6 tossup 		D - 14
R - 14
4 tossup

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ 16 plus the vice president
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