2020 Arabin Senate elections: Difference between revisions

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  | 2blank            = Races won
  | 2blank            = Races won


  | party1            = Liberal Socialist Party (Arabi)
  | party1            = Democratic Party (Arabi)
  | image1            = [[File:Default female Arabi.jpg|160x180px]]
  | image1            = [[File:Default female Arabi.jpg|160x180px]]
  | leader1            = Mary Nichols
  | leader1            = Mary Nichols
Line 26: Line 26:
  | seats_needed1      = {{steady}}
  | seats_needed1      = {{steady}}
   
   
  | party2            = Conservative Socialist Party (Arabi)
  | party2            = Republican Party (Arabi)
  | image2            = [[File:Default male Arabi.jpg|160x180px]]
  | image2            = [[File:Default male Arabi.jpg|160x180px]]
  | leader2            = Lucien Orton
  | leader2            = Lucien Orton
Line 38: Line 38:
  | map_image          = [[File:Arabin Senate elections, 2020.png|512x317px]]
  | map_image          = [[File:Arabin Senate elections, 2020.png|512x317px]]
  | map_size          = 320px
  | map_size          = 320px
  | map_caption        = {{legend0|#A6E4FF|Liberal Socialist senator running}}<br>{{legend0|#FFC7AE|Conservative Socialist senator running}}<br/>{{legend0|#0095D5|Liberal Socialist senator retiring}}<br>{{legend0|#ED4600|Conservative Socialist senator retiring}}<br/>{{legend0|#d3d3d3|No election}}
  | map_caption        = {{legend0|#A6E4FF|Democratic senator running}}<br>{{legend0|#FFC7AE|Republican senator running}}<br/>{{legend0|#0095D5|Democratic senator retiring}}<br>{{legend0|#ED4600|Republican senator retiring}}<br/>{{legend0|#d3d3d3|No election}}
  | title              = Majority Leader
  | title              = Majority Leader
  | before_election    = Mary Nichols
  | before_election    = Mary Nichols
  | before_party      = Liberal Socialist Party (Arabi)
  | before_party      = Democratic Party (Arabi)
  | after_election    = TBD
  | after_election    = TBD
  | after_party        = TBD
  | after_party        = TBD
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| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Kimes, Winnie" | Winnie Kimes
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Kimes, Winnie" | Winnie Kimes
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|D}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|D}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|R|flip}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|D}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|D}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|D}}
| <!--(4)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|D}}
| <!--(4)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|D}}
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! colspan=2 | Overall
! colspan=2 | Overall
<!--Coo-->| D - 14<br/>R - 17<br/>1 tossup
<!--Coo-->| D - 14<br/>R - 17<br/>1 tossup
<!--IE-->| D - 12<br/>R - 19<br/>1 tossup
<!--IE-->| D - 13<br/>R - 18<br/>1 tossup
<!--SCB-->| D - 13<br/>R - 16<br/>3 tossups
<!--SCB-->| D - 13<br/>R - 16<br/>3 tossups
<!--DKE-->| D - 13<br/>R - 16<br/>3 tossups
<!--DKE-->| D - 13<br/>R - 16<br/>3 tossups

Revision as of 06:02, 5 July 2020

For related races, see 2020 Arabin elections.
2020 Arabin Senate elections
← 2018 December 5, 2020 2022 →
11 of the 32 seats (class 1) in the Arabin Senate
17 seats needed for a majority
  Default female Arabi.jpg Default male Arabi.jpg
Leader Mary Nichols Lucien Orton
Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)
Leader since January 8, 2017 January 8, 2015
Leader's seat Saint George Windsor
Current seats 18 14
Seats needed Steady Increase 2-3
Seats up 8 3
Arabin Senate elections, 2020.png
     Democratic senator running
     Republican senator running
     Democratic senator retiring
     Republican senator retiring
     No election
Incumbent Majority Leader

Mary Nichols
Democratic Party (Arabi)



The 2020 Arabin Senate elctions will be held on December 5, 2020, with the 11 class 1 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections. The winners will be elected to six-year terms starting from January 5, 2021, to January 5, 2027.

Predictions

Listed below are predictions by six organizations that regularly researches polling data.

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely"": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe"": near-certain chance of victory
State Senator 2020 election ratings
Arabin News
Journal
May 12, 2020 		Independence
Group
July 3, 2020 		New Age
Research
April 15, 2020 		OPP
June 29, 2020 		Political
Forecasting
June 15, 2020 		PolitiTrade
July 1, 2020
Burberry Poppy Smith Lean D Tilt R (flip) Tossup Tilt D Tilt R (flip) Lean D
Dartmoor Henry Carpenter Tossup Lean D Tilt R (flip) Tossup Lean D Lean D
Dellcourt Spencer Pickering Lean R Likely R Likely R Tossup Likely R Lean R
Lochcoast Lola Fry Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D
New Bristol Andrew Clegg Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Likely R Likely R
New Cambridge Winnie Kimes Safe D Likely D Safe D Tilt D Likely D Tossup
New Plymouth Michael Fuller Tilt R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip)
Owens David Coffman Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tilt D Tilt R (flip)
Saint George Mary Nichols Tilt R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean D Tossup Lean D
Severn Amber Holmes Likely D Likely R (flip) Lean D Tilt R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip)
Windsor Lucien Orton Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Lean R Tossup
Overall D - 14
R - 17
1 tossup 		D - 13
R - 18
1 tossup 		D - 13
R - 16
3 tossups 		D - 13
R - 16
3 tossups 		D - 14
R - 16
2 tossups 		D - 13
R - 17
2 tossups

Burberry

Dartmoor

Dellcourt

Lochcoast

New Bristol

New Cambridge

New Plymouth

Owens

Saint George

Severn

Windsor

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