2020 Arabin Senate elections: Difference between revisions

Jump to navigation Jump to search
No edit summary
No edit summary
Line 66: Line 66:
! <!--(1)--> Arabin News <br/> Journal <br/> {{small|May 12, 2020}}
! <!--(1)--> Arabin News <br/> Journal <br/> {{small|May 12, 2020}}
! <!--(2)--> Independence <br/> Group <br/> {{small|July 3, 2020}}  
! <!--(2)--> Independence <br/> Group <br/> {{small|July 3, 2020}}  
! <!--(3)--> New Age <br/> Research <br/> {{small|April 15, 2020}}  
! <!--(3)--> New Age <br/> Research <ref>New data expected July 15, 2020</ref> <br/> {{small|April 15, 2020}}  
! <!--(4)--> {{abbr|OPP|Owens Political Predictions}} <br/> {{small|June 29, 2020}}
! <!--(4)--> {{abbr|OPP|Owens Political Predictions}} <br/> {{small|June 29, 2020}}
! <!--(5)--> Political <br/> Forecasting <br/> {{small|June 15, 2020}}
! <!--(5)--> Political <br/> Forecasting <br/> {{small|June 15, 2020}}
Line 179: Line 179:
<!--Pol-->| D - 14<br/>R - 16<br/>2 tossups
<!--Pol-->| D - 14<br/>R - 16<br/>2 tossups
<!--RCP-->| D - 13<br/>R - 17<br/>2 tossups
<!--RCP-->| D - 13<br/>R - 17<br/>2 tossups
|}
== Election dates ==
{| class="wikitable sortable"
|-
! State
! Filing deadline for <br/> major party candidates
! Primary <br/> election
! General <br/> election
! Poll closing <br/> {{small|(AST)}}
|-
| [[Burberry (Arabi)|Burberry]]
| January 1, 2020
| June 20, 2020
| '''December 5, 2020'''
| 7:00pm
|-
| [[Dartmoor (Arabi)|Dartmoor]]
| December 6, 2019
| May 2, 2020
| '''December 5, 2020'''
| 7:00pm
|-
| [[Dellcourt (Arabi)|Dellcourt]]
| January 29, 2020
| '''July 11, 2020'''
| '''December 5, 2020'''
| 7:00pm
|-
| [[Lochcoast (Arabi)|Lochcoast]]
| February 7, 2020
| '''August 1, 2020'''
| '''December 5, 2020'''
| 7:00pm
|-
| [[New Bristol (Arabi)|New Bristol]]
| November 11, 2019
| March 28, 2020
| '''December 5, 2020'''
| 7:00pm
|-
| [[New Cambridge (Arabi)|New Cambridge]]
| November 27, 2019
| April 4, 2020
| '''December 5, 2020'''
| 7:00pm
|-
| [[New Plymouth (Arabi)|New Plymouth]]
| January 29, 2020
| July 4, 2020
| '''December 5, 2020'''
| 7:00pm
|-
| [[Owens (Arabi)|Owens]]
| March 13, 2020
| '''August 29, 2020'''
| '''December 5, 2020'''
| 7:00pm
|-
| [[Saint George (Arabi)|Saint George]]
| December 23, 2019
| May 9, 2020
| '''December 5, 2020'''
| 7:00pm
|-
| [[Severn (Arabi)|Severn]]
| April 16, 2020
| '''September 12, 2020'''
| '''December 5, 2020'''
| 7:00pm
|-
| [[Windsor (Arabi)|Windsor]]
| March 24, 2020
| '''August 1, 2020'''
| '''December 5, 2020'''
| 7:00pm


|}
|}
Line 203: Line 283:


== Windsor ==
== Windsor ==
== Notes ==
{{notelist}}

Revision as of 01:05, 6 July 2020

For related races, see 2020 Arabin elections.
2020 Arabin Senate elections
← 2018 December 5, 2020 2022 →
11 of the 32 seats (class 1) in the Arabin Senate
17 seats needed for a majority
  Default female Arabi.jpg Default male Arabi.jpg
Leader Mary Nichols Lucien Orton
Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)
Leader since January 8, 2017 January 8, 2015
Leader's seat Saint George Windsor
Current seats 18 14
Seats needed Steady Increase 2-3
Seats up 8 3
Arabin Senate elections, 2020.png
     Democratic senator running
     Republican senator running
     Democratic senator retiring
     Republican senator retiring
     No election
Incumbent Majority Leader

Mary Nichols
Democratic Party (Arabi)



The 2020 Arabin Senate elctions will be held on December 5, 2020, with the 11 class 1 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections. The winners will be elected to six-year terms starting from January 5, 2021, to January 5, 2027.

Predictions

Listed below are predictions by six organizations that regularly researches polling data.

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely"": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe"": near-certain chance of victory
State Senator 2020 election ratings
Arabin News
Journal
May 12, 2020 		Independence
Group
July 3, 2020 		New Age
Research [1]
April 15, 2020 		OPP
June 29, 2020 		Political
Forecasting
June 15, 2020 		PolitiTrade
July 1, 2020
Burberry Poppy Smith Lean D Tilt R (flip) Tossup Tilt D Tilt R (flip) Lean D
Dartmoor Henry Carpenter Tossup Lean D Tilt R (flip) Tossup Lean D Lean D
Dellcourt Spencer Pickering Lean R Likely R Likely R Tossup Likely R Lean R
Lochcoast Lola Fry Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D
New Bristol Andrew Clegg Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Likely R Likely R
New Cambridge Winnie Kimes Safe D Likely D Safe D Tilt D Likely D Tossup
New Plymouth Michael Fuller Tilt R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip)
Owens David Coffman Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tilt D Tilt R (flip)
Saint George Mary Nichols Tilt R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean D Tossup Lean D
Severn Amber Holmes Likely D Likely R (flip) Lean D Tilt R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip)
Windsor Lucien Orton Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Lean R Tossup
Overall D - 14
R - 17
1 tossup 		D - 13
R - 18
1 tossup 		D - 13
R - 16
3 tossups 		D - 13
R - 16
3 tossups 		D - 14
R - 16
2 tossups 		D - 13
R - 17
2 tossups

Election dates

State Filing deadline for
major party candidates 		Primary
election 		General
election 		Poll closing
(AST)
Burberry January 1, 2020 June 20, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
Dartmoor December 6, 2019 May 2, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
Dellcourt January 29, 2020 July 11, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
Lochcoast February 7, 2020 August 1, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
New Bristol November 11, 2019 March 28, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
New Cambridge November 27, 2019 April 4, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
New Plymouth January 29, 2020 July 4, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
Owens March 13, 2020 August 29, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
Saint George December 23, 2019 May 9, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
Severn April 16, 2020 September 12, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
Windsor March 24, 2020 August 1, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm

Burberry

Dartmoor

Dellcourt

Lochcoast

New Bristol

New Cambridge

New Plymouth

Owens

Saint George

Severn

Windsor

Notes

  1. ↑ New data expected July 15, 2020
Retrieved from "https://iiwiki.us/mediawiki/index.php?title=2020_Arabin_Senate_elections&oldid=224513"