2020 Arabin Senate elections

For related races, see 2020 Arabin elections.

2020 Arabin Senate elections

December 5, 2020
11 of the 32 seats (class 1) in the Arabin Senate 17 seats needed for a majority
Leader Mary Nichols Lucien Orton Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi) Leader since January 8, 2017 January 8, 2015 Leader's seat Saint George Windsor Current seats 18 14 Seats needed 3 Seats up 8 3
Democratic senator running      Republican senator running      Democratic senator retiring      No election
Incumbent Majority Leader Mary Nichols Democratic Party (Arabi)

The 2020 Arabin Senate elctions will be held on December 5, 2020, with the 11 class 1 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections. The winners will be elected to six-year terms starting from January 5, 2021, to January 5, 2027.

Predictions

Listed below are predictions by six organizations that regularly researches polling data.

• "tossup": no advantage
• "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
• "lean": slight advantage
• "likely"": significant, but surmountable, advantage
• "safe"": near-certain chance of victory

State	Senator	2020 election ratings
		Arabin News Journal August 14, 2020	Independence Group July 3, 2020	New Age Research August 3, 2020	OPP June 29, 2020	Political Forecasting August 28, 2020	PolitiTrade July 1, 2020
Burberry	Poppy Smith	Likely D	Tilt R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D
Dartmoor	Henry Carpenter	Tilt D	Lean D	Likely R (flip)	Tossup	Likely D	Lean D
Dellcourt	Spencer Pickering	Lean D (flip)	Likely R	Lean D (flip)	Tossup	Lean R	Lean R
Lochcoast	Lola Fry	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D
New Bristol	Andrew Clegg	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R
New Cambridge	Winnie Kimes	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Tilt D	Safe D	Tossup
New Plymouth	Michael Fuller	Lean R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Likely D	Likely R (flip)	Safe D	Lean R (flip)
Owens	David Coffman	Tossup	Lean R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Tossup	Lean D	Tilt R (flip)
Saint George	Mary Nichols	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D
Severn	Amber Holmes	Lean D	Likely R (flip)	Likely D	Tilt R (flip)	Tilt R (flip)	Lean R (flip)
Windsor	Lucien Orton	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Tilt R	Tossup
Overall		D - 16 R - 14 2 tossup	D - 13 R - 18 1 tossup	D - 16 R - 16 0 tossups	D - 13 R - 16 3 tossups	D - 17 R - 15 0 tossups	D - 13 R - 17 2 tossups

Election dates

Bold indicates a future date.

State	Filing deadline for major party candidates	Primary election	General election	Poll closing
Burberry	January 1, 2020	June 20, 2020	December 5, 2020	7:00pm AST
Dartmoor	December 6, 2019	May 2, 2020
Dellcourt	January 29, 2020	July 11, 2020
Lochcoast	February 7, 2020	August 1, 2020
New Bristol	November 11, 2019	March 28, 2020
New Cambridge	November 27, 2019	April 4, 2020
New Plymouth	January 29, 2020	July 4, 2020
Owens	March 13, 2020	August 29, 2020
Saint George	December 23, 2019	May 9, 2020
Severn	April 16, 2020	September 12, 2020
Windsor	March 24, 2020	August 1, 2020

Burberry

Burberry election

December 5, 2020

Nominee Poppy Smith Christina Tyson Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Arabin Senator Poppy Smith Democratic Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Democrat Poppy Smith was first elected in 2008, defeating incumbent Maureen Rivera. Smith is running for her third term.

On June 20, 2020, Smith won the nomination for the Democratic Party while Representative from Burberry's 2nd district, Christina Tyson won the nomination for the Republican Party.

Primary results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Poppy Smith (incumbent)	211,114	49.63%
	Democratic	Robert Wells	114,215	26.86%
	Democratic	Martha Gawlik	100,001	23.51%
Total votes			425,330	100.00%

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Christina Tyson	134,916	29.52%
	Republican	Lyle Nelson	103,301	22.60%
	Republican	Anna Gillis	81,109	17.75%
	Republican	Matthew Wells	77,746	17.02%
	Republican	Jessica Wodsworth	59,927	13.11%
Total votes			456,999	100.00%

Dartmoor

Dartmoor election

December 5, 2020

Nominee Henry Carpenter Nelson Walls Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Arabin Senator Henry Carpenter Democratic Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Democrat Henry Carpenter was first elected in 2008, defeating incumbent Robert Ferguson. Carpenter is running for his third term.

On May 2, 2020, Carpenter won the nomination for the Democratic Party while former governor of Dartmoor, Nelson Walls, won the nomination for the Republican Party.

Primary results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Henry Carpenter (incumbent)	294,787	79.17%
	Democratic	John Higgins	77,518	20.83%
Total votes			372,305	100.00%

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Nelson Walls	121,415	60.09%
	Republican	Ursula Winters	80,652	39.91%
Total votes			202,067	100.00%

Dellcourt

Dellcourt election

December 5, 2020

Nominee Spencer Pickering Melissa Jurgens Party Republican Party (Arabi) Democratic Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Arabin Senator Spencer Pickering Republican Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Republican Spencer Pickering was first elected in 2002, defeating incumbent Justin Price. Pickering is running for his fourth term.

On July 11, 2020, Pickering won the nomination for the Republican Party, while Dellcourt State Senator, Melissa Jurgens won the nomination for the Democratic Party.

Primary results

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Spencer Pickering (incumbent)	99,967	73.38%
	Republican	Jennifer Yates	36,275	26.62%
Total votes			136,242	100.00%

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Melissa Jurgens	102,308	53.72%
	Democratic	Robin Banks	32,198	16.10%
	Democratic	Abby Williams	21,219	11.14%
	Democratic	Darius Johnson	17,436	9.15%
	Democratic	Mario Russo	11,445	6.02%
	Democratic	Thersea Hollis	5,855	3.07%
Total votes			190,461	100.00%

Lochcoast

Lochcoast election

December 5, 2020

Nominee Michael Sykes Kenneth Tyler Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Arabin Senator Lola Fry Democratic Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Democrat Lola Fry was first elected in 2008, defeating incumbent Harvey Humphreys. On February 3, 2020, Fry announced her intention to run for Governor of Lochcoast and would not seek a third term in the Senate. The primaries in Lochcoast were on August 1, 2020. State Senators Michael Sykes (D) and Kenneth Tyler (R) won their respective party primaries.

Primary results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Michael Sykes	123,879	47.72%
	Democratic	Nathan Hardy	74,315	28.62%
	Democratic	Dylan Lowe	44,039	16.96%
	Democratic	Abby French	17,398	6.70%
Total votes			259,631	100.00%

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Kenneth Taylor	115,112	45.34%
	Republican	Callum Baldwin	62,200	24.49%
	Republican	Amanda Folks	42,964	16.92%
	Republican	Roger Camacho	33,663	13.25%
Total votes			253,939	100.00%

New Bristol

New Bristol election

December 5, 2020

Nominee Andrew Clegg Brynn Bilderback Party Republican Party (Arabi) Democratic Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Arabin Senator Andrew Clegg Republican Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Republican Andrew Clegg was elected as a Conservative Socialist in 2014, defeating Liberal Socialist nominee Evan Goodwin. He is running for a second term. The primaries in New Bristol were on March 28, 2020. Incumbent Senator Andrew Clegg (R) and former Arabin Representative Brynn Bilderback (D) won their respective party primaries.

Primary results

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Andrew Clegg (incumbent)	815,997	87.78%
	Republican	Michael Shaw	113,675	12.22%
Total votes			929,672	100.00%

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Brynn Bilderback	777,771	68.17%
	Democratic	Ryan Buckley	137,516	12.06%
	Democratic	Spencer Webb	109,284	9.58%
	Democratic	Ethan Martin	79,456	6.96%
	Democratic	Alicia Khan	36,946	3.23%
Total votes			1,140,973	100.00%

New Cambridge

New Cambridge election

December 5, 2020

Nominee John Freeman IV Ryan Wyatt Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Arabin Senator Winnie Kimes Democratic Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Democrat Winnie Kimes was elected as a Liberal Socialist in 2014. She ran for a second term but ultimately lost in the primary election to John Freeman IV. The primary election in New Cambridge was on April 4, 2020. John Freeman IV (D) and Ryan Wyatt (R) won their repsective party primaries.

Freeman is the younger brother of the 28th president of Arabi, Walter Freeman.

Primary results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John Freeman IV	2,116,291	50.01%
	Democratic	Winnie Kimes (incumbent)	2,115,720	49.99%
Total votes			4,232,011	100.00%

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Ryan Wyatt	2,117,605	100.00%
Total votes			2,117,605	100.00%

New Plymouth

New Plymouth election

December 5, 2020

Nominee Michael Fuller Charlotte Marshall Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Arabin Senator Michael Fuller Democratic Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Democrat Michael Fuller was elected as a Liberal Socialist in 2002. He is running for his fourth term. The primary election in New Plymouth was on July 4, 2020. Incumbent Michael Fuller (D) and Charlotte Marshall (R) won their respective party primaries.

Primary results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Michael Fuller (incumbent)	394,152	100.00%
Total votes			394,152	100.00%

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Charlotte Marshall	322,527	49.52%
	Republican	Ethan Day	156,221	23.98%
	Republican	Paul McLawhorn	131,672	20.21%
	Republican	Kieran Sharpe	41,000	6.29%
Total votes			651,420	100.00%

Owens

Owens statewide primary election is scheduled to take place on August 29, 2020.

Saint George

Saint George election

December 5, 2020

Nominee Mary Nichols Sean Whitehouse Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Arabin Senator Mary Nichols Democratic Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Democrat Mary Nichols was elected as a Liberal Socialist in 2002. She is running for her fourth term. The primary election in Saint George was on May 9, 2020. Incumbent Mary Nichols (D) and Sean Whitehouse (R) won their respective party primaries.

Nichols is the current Senate Majority Leader.

Primary results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Mary Nichols (incumbent)	277,518	100.00%
Total votes			277,518	100.00%

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Sean Whitehouse	201,134	46.89%
	Republican	Ethan Conway	118,123	27.53%
	Republican	Hal Scott	109,783	25.58%
Total votes			429,040	100.00%

Severn

Severn's statewide primary election is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2020.

Windsor

Windsor election

December 5, 2020

Nominee Lucien Orton Joan Matthews Party Republican Party (Arabi) Democratic Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Arabin Senator Lucien Orton Republican Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Republican Lucien Orton was elected as a Conservative Socialist in 2002. He is running for his fourth term. The primary election in Windsor was on August 1, 2020. Incumbent Lucien Orton (R) and Joan Matthews (D) won their respective party primaries.

Orton is the current Senate Minority Leader.

Primary results

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Lucien Orton (incumbent)	199,201	71.81%
	Republican	Robert Thornton	78,230	28.19%
Total votes			277,431	100.00%

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Joan Matthews	165,026	42.74%
	Democratic	Patrick Johnson	127,546	33.03%
	Democratic	Leon Winkel	93,581	24.23%
Total votes			386,153	100.00%