2022 Arabin Senate elections: Difference between revisions

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Revision as of 02:16, 16 December 2021

2022 Arabin Senate elections

← 2020 December 3, 2022 2024 →

12 of the 32 seats in the Arabin Senate
17[1] seats needed for a majority
  Default female Arabi.jpg Default male Arabi.jpg
Leader Mary Nichols Lucien Orton
Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)
Leader since January 8, 2017 January 8, 2015
Leader's seat Saint George Windsor
Last election 17 15
Seats needed Steady Increase 1–2
Seats up 6 6

2022 Arabin Senate election.png
     Democratic incumbent running
     Democratic incumbent retiring
     Republican incumbent running
     Republican incumbent retiring
     No election

Incumbent Majority Leader

Mary Nichols
Democratic Party (Arabi)



The 2022 Arabin Senate elctions will be held on December 3, 2022, with the 11 class 2 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections and 1 class 3 seat being contested in a special election.[2] The winners will be elected to six-year terms starting from January 5, 2023, to January 5, 2029.

Predictions

Listed below are predictions by three organizations that regularly researches polling data.

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely"": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe"": near-certain chance of victory
State Senator 2022 election ratings
Arabin News
Journal
November 4, 2021
Political Forecasting
December 5, 2021
PolitiTrade
December 10, 2021
Burberry Robert Nelson Likely R Lean R Likely R
Dartmoor Diane Devalle Tilt D Tossup Lean R (flip)
Drakeland Luca Sutton
(retiring)
Tilt D (flip) Tilt R Lean R
Lochcoast Tamala Natal Likely D Safe D Safe D
New Bristol Sean Blackburn
(retiring)
Tilt R Tilt R Likely R
New Cambridge Sebastian Whittaker Safe D Safe D Safe D
New London Sylvia Ireland Likely R Likely R Safe R
New Plymouth Justine Greer Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Tilt D
Owens Randy Elliot
(retiring)
Tossup Tossup Tilt R
Terranova Kiera Shepard Lean R Tossup Tossup
Walpole Brenda Castro Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip)
Welwald Victoria Bailey
(retiring)
Lean R Tilt D (flip) Lean R
Overall D - 15
R - 15
2 tossup
D - 14
R - 14
4 tossups
D - 14
R - 17
1 tossups

Election dates

Bold indicates a future date.

State Filing deadline for
major party candidates
Primary
election
General
election
Poll closing
Burberry January 1, 2022 TBA December 3, 2022
7:00pm
Dartmoor December 15, 2021 TBA
Drakeland February 1, 2022 TBA
Lochcoast February 1, 2022 TBA
New Bristol December 2, 2021 TBA
New Cambridge November 30, 2021 TBA
New London January 5, 2022 TBA
New Plymouth January 3, 2022 TBA
Owens December 13, 2021 TBA
Terranova December 20, 2021 TBA
Walpole February 3, 2022 TBA
Welwald January 10, 2022 TBA


Notes

  1. 16 plus the vice president
  2. Robert Stephens became vice president on October 1, 2021, vacating his senate seat. His successor, Justine Greer, has announced she will run for the seat to fill the remainder of the term.