2020 Arabin Senate elections: Difference between revisions
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| election_date = December 5, 2020 | | election_date = December 5, 2020 | ||
| image_size = | | image_size = | ||
| image1 = | | image1 = [[File:Default female Arabi.jpg|160x180px]] | ||
| nominee1 = Poppy Smith | | nominee1 = Poppy Smith | ||
| party1 = Democratic Party (Arabi) | | party1 = Democratic Party (Arabi) | ||
| popular_vote1 = | | popular_vote1 = | ||
| percentage1 = | | percentage1 = | ||
| image2 = | | image2 = [[File:Default female Arabi.jpg|160x180px]] | ||
| nominee2 = Christina Tyson | | nominee2 = Christina Tyson | ||
| party2 = Republican Party (Arabi) | | party2 = Republican Party (Arabi) | ||
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|- | |- | ||
| '''Poppy Smith''' {{small|({{wp|incumbent}})}} | | '''Poppy Smith''' {{small|({{wp|incumbent}})}} | ||
| ''' | | '''211,114''' | ||
| ''' | | '''49.63''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Robert Wells | | Robert Wells | ||
| | | 114,215 | ||
| | | 26.86 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Martha Gawlik | | Martha Gawlik | ||
| | | 100,001 | ||
| | | 23.51 | ||
|} | |||
{|class=wikitable | |||
|- | |||
! colspan=3 | Burberry's Republican Senate Primary Election, 2020 | |||
|- | |||
! Candidate | |||
! Votes | |||
! % | |||
|- | |||
| '''Christina Tyson''' | |||
| '''134,916''' | |||
| '''29.52''' | |||
|- | |||
| Lyle Nelson | |||
| 103,301 | |||
| 22.60 | |||
|- | |||
| Anna Gillis | |||
| 81,109 | |||
| 17.75 | |||
|- | |||
| Matthew Wells | |||
| 77,746 | |||
| 17.02 | |||
|- | |||
| Jessica Wodsworth | |||
| 59,927 | |||
| 13.11 | |||
|} | |} | ||
Revision as of 06:07, 4 August 2020
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11 of the 32 seats (class 1) in the Arabin Senate 17 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Democratic senator running Republican senator running Democratic senator retiring No election | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2-3
The 2020 Arabin Senate elctions will be held on December 5, 2020, with the 11 class 1 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections. The winners will be elected to six-year terms starting from January 5, 2021, to January 5, 2027.
Predictions
Listed below are predictions by six organizations that regularly researches polling data.
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean": slight advantage
- "likely"": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "safe"": near-certain chance of victory
| State | Senator | 2020 election ratings | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arabin News Journal May 12, 2020 |
Independence Group July 3, 2020 |
New Age Research August 3, 2020 |
OPP June 29, 2020 |
Political Forecasting June 15, 2020 |
PolitiTrade July 1, 2020 | ||
| Burberry | Poppy Smith | Lean D | Tilt R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Tilt D | Tilt R (flip) | Lean D |
| Dartmoor | Henry Carpenter | Tossup | Lean D | Likely R (flip) | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D |
| Dellcourt | Spencer Pickering | Lean R | Likely R | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Likely R | Lean R |
| Lochcoast | Lola Fry | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| New Bristol | Andrew Clegg | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R |
| New Cambridge | Winnie Kimes | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Tilt D | Likely D | Tossup |
| New Plymouth | Michael Fuller | Tilt R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely D | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) |
| Owens | David Coffman | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Tossup | Tilt D | Tilt R (flip) |
| Saint George | Mary Nichols | Tilt R (flip) | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D |
| Severn | Amber Holmes | Likely D | Likely R (flip) | Likely D | Tilt R (flip) | Tossup | Lean R (flip) |
| Windsor | Lucien Orton | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Tossup |
| Overall | D - 14 R - 17 1 tossup |
D - 13 R - 18 1 tossup |
D - 16 R - 16 0 tossups |
D - 13 R - 16 3 tossups |
D - 14 R - 16 2 tossups |
D - 13 R - 17 2 tossups | |
Election dates
Bold indicates a future date.
| State | Filing deadline for major party candidates |
Primary election |
General election |
Poll closing (AST) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burberry | January 1, 2020 | June 20, 2020 | December 5, 2020 | 7:00pm |
| Dartmoor | December 6, 2019 | May 2, 2020 | December 5, 2020 | 7:00pm |
| Dellcourt | January 29, 2020 | July 11, 2020 | December 5, 2020 | 7:00pm |
| Lochcoast | February 7, 2020 | August 1, 2020 | December 5, 2020 | 7:00pm |
| New Bristol | November 11, 2019 | March 28, 2020 | December 5, 2020 | 7:00pm |
| New Cambridge | November 27, 2019 | April 4, 2020 | December 5, 2020 | 7:00pm |
| New Plymouth | January 29, 2020 | July 4, 2020 | December 5, 2020 | 7:00pm |
| Owens | March 13, 2020 | August 29, 2020 | December 5, 2020 | 7:00pm |
| Saint George | December 23, 2019 | May 9, 2020 | December 5, 2020 | 7:00pm |
| Severn | April 16, 2020 | September 12, 2020 | December 5, 2020 | 7:00pm |
| Windsor | March 24, 2020 | August 1, 2020 | December 5, 2020 | 7:00pm |
Burberry
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Incumbent Democrat Poppy Smith was first elected in 2008, defeating incumbent Maureen Rivera. Smith is running for her third term.
On June 20, 2020, Smith won the nomination for the Democratic Party while Representative from Burberry's 2nd district, Christina Tyson won the nomination for the Republican Party.
| Burberry's Democratic Senate Primary Election, 2020 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | % |
| Poppy Smith (incumbent) | 211,114 | 49.63 |
| Robert Wells | 114,215 | 26.86 |
| Martha Gawlik | 100,001 | 23.51 |
| Burberry's Republican Senate Primary Election, 2020 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | % |
| Christina Tyson | 134,916 | 29.52 |
| Lyle Nelson | 103,301 | 22.60 |
| Anna Gillis | 81,109 | 17.75 |
| Matthew Wells | 77,746 | 17.02 |
| Jessica Wodsworth | 59,927 | 13.11 |