2020 Arabin Senate elections: Difference between revisions

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== Dartmoor ==
== Dartmoor ==
{{Infobox election
| election_name      = Dartmoor election
| country            =
| type              = presidential
| ongoing            = yes
| previous_election  =
| previous_year      = 2016
| next_election      = 2022 Arabin Senate election in Dartmoor
| next_year          = 2022
| election_date      = December 5, 2020
| image_size        =
| image1            = [[File:Default male Arabi.jpg|160x180px]]
| nominee1          = Henry Carpenter
| party1            = Democratic Party (Arabi)
| popular_vote1      =
| percentage1        =
| image2            = [[File:Default male Arabi.jpg|160x180px]]
| nominee2          = Nelson Walls
| party2            = Republican Party (Arabi)
| popular_vote2      =
| percentage2        =
| title              = Arabin Senator
| before_election    = Henry Carpenter
| before_party      = Democratic Party (Arabi)
}}
Incumbent Democrat Henry Carpenter was first elected in 2008, defeating incumbent Robert Ferguson. Carpenter is running for his third term.
On May 2, 2020, Carpenter won the nomination for the [[Democratic Party (Arabi)|Democratic Party]] while former governor of Dartmoor, Nelson Walls, won the nomination for the [[Republican Party (Arabi)|Republican Party]].
<br/>
{|class=wikitable
|-
! colspan=3 | Dartmoor's Democratic Senate Primary Election, 2020
|-
! Candidate
! Votes
! %
|-
| '''Henry Carpenter''' {{small|({{wp|incumbent}})}}
| '''294,787'''
| '''79.17'''
|-
| John Higgins
| 77,518
| 20.83
|}
<br/>
{|class=wikitable
|-
! colspan=3 | Dartmoor's Republican Senate Primary Election, 2020
|-
! Candidate
! Votes
! %
|-
| '''Nelson Walls'''
| '''121,415'''
| '''60.09'''
|-
| Ursula Winters
| 80,652
| 39.91
|}
<br/>


== Dellcourt ==
== Dellcourt ==

Revision as of 00:18, 6 August 2020

For related races, see 2020 Arabin elections.
2020 Arabin Senate elections
← 2018 December 5, 2020 2022 →
11 of the 32 seats (class 1) in the Arabin Senate
17 seats needed for a majority
  Default female Arabi.jpg Default male Arabi.jpg
Leader Mary Nichols Lucien Orton
Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)
Leader since January 8, 2017 January 8, 2015
Leader's seat Saint George Windsor
Current seats 18 14
Seats needed Steady Increase 2-3
Seats up 8 3
Arabin Senate elections, 2020.png
     Democratic senator running
     Republican senator running
     Democratic senator retiring
     No election
Incumbent Majority Leader

Mary Nichols
Democratic Party (Arabi)



The 2020 Arabin Senate elctions will be held on December 5, 2020, with the 11 class 1 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections. The winners will be elected to six-year terms starting from January 5, 2021, to January 5, 2027.

Predictions

Listed below are predictions by six organizations that regularly researches polling data.

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely"": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe"": near-certain chance of victory
State Senator 2020 election ratings
Arabin News
Journal
May 12, 2020 		Independence
Group
July 3, 2020 		New Age
Research
August 3, 2020 		OPP
June 29, 2020 		Political
Forecasting
June 15, 2020 		PolitiTrade
July 1, 2020
Burberry Poppy Smith Lean D Tilt R (flip) Likely R (flip) Tilt D Tilt R (flip) Lean D
Dartmoor Henry Carpenter Tossup Lean D Likely R (flip) Tossup Lean D Lean D
Dellcourt Spencer Pickering Lean R Likely R Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely R Lean R
Lochcoast Lola Fry Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D
New Bristol Andrew Clegg Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R
New Cambridge Winnie Kimes Safe D Likely D Safe D Tilt D Likely D Tossup
New Plymouth Michael Fuller Tilt R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip)
Owens David Coffman Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Tossup Tilt D Tilt R (flip)
Saint George Mary Nichols Tilt R (flip) Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D
Severn Amber Holmes Likely D Likely R (flip) Likely D Tilt R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip)
Windsor Lucien Orton Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Lean R Tossup
Overall D - 14
R - 17
1 tossup 		D - 13
R - 18
1 tossup 		D - 16
R - 16
0 tossups 		D - 13
R - 16
3 tossups 		D - 14
R - 16
2 tossups 		D - 13
R - 17
2 tossups

Election dates

Bold indicates a future date.

State Filing deadline for
major party candidates 		Primary
election 		General
election 		Poll closing
(AST)
Burberry January 1, 2020 June 20, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
Dartmoor December 6, 2019 May 2, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
Dellcourt January 29, 2020 July 11, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
Lochcoast February 7, 2020 August 1, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
New Bristol November 11, 2019 March 28, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
New Cambridge November 27, 2019 April 4, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
New Plymouth January 29, 2020 July 4, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
Owens March 13, 2020 August 29, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
Saint George December 23, 2019 May 9, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
Severn April 16, 2020 September 12, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm
Windsor March 24, 2020 August 1, 2020 December 5, 2020 7:00pm

Burberry

Burberry election
← 2016 December 5, 2020 2022 →
  Default female Arabi.jpg Default female Arabi.jpg
Nominee Poppy Smith Christina Tyson
Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)
Incumbent Arabin Senator

Poppy Smith
Democratic Party (Arabi)



Incumbent Democrat Poppy Smith was first elected in 2008, defeating incumbent Maureen Rivera. Smith is running for her third term.

On June 20, 2020, Smith won the nomination for the Democratic Party while Representative from Burberry's 2nd district, Christina Tyson won the nomination for the Republican Party.

Burberry's Democratic Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate Votes %
Poppy Smith (incumbent) 211,114 49.63
Robert Wells 114,215 26.86
Martha Gawlik 100,001 23.51
Burberry's Republican Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate Votes %
Christina Tyson 134,916 29.52
Lyle Nelson 103,301 22.60
Anna Gillis 81,109 17.75
Matthew Wells 77,746 17.02
Jessica Wodsworth 59,927 13.11

Dartmoor

Dartmoor election
← 2016 December 5, 2020 2022 →
  Default male Arabi.jpg Default male Arabi.jpg
Nominee Henry Carpenter Nelson Walls
Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)
Incumbent Arabin Senator

Henry Carpenter
Democratic Party (Arabi)



Incumbent Democrat Henry Carpenter was first elected in 2008, defeating incumbent Robert Ferguson. Carpenter is running for his third term.

On May 2, 2020, Carpenter won the nomination for the Democratic Party while former governor of Dartmoor, Nelson Walls, won the nomination for the Republican Party.


Dartmoor's Democratic Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate Votes %
Henry Carpenter (incumbent) 294,787 79.17
John Higgins 77,518 20.83


Dartmoor's Republican Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate Votes %
Nelson Walls 121,415 60.09
Ursula Winters 80,652 39.91


Dellcourt

Lochcoast

New Bristol

New Cambridge

New Plymouth

Owens

Saint George

Severn

Windsor

Notes

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