2020 Arabin Senate elections: Difference between revisions

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{|class=wikitable
{|class=wikitable
|-
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! colspan=3 | Dartmoor's Democratic Senate Primary Election, 2020
! colspan=4 | Dartmoor's Democratic Senate Primary Election, 2020
|-
|-
! Candidate
! colspan=2 | Candidate
! Votes
! Votes
! %
! %
|-
|-
| style="background: {{Democratic Party (Arabi)/meta/color}}" |
| '''Henry Carpenter''' {{small|({{wp|incumbent}})}}
| '''Henry Carpenter''' {{small|({{wp|incumbent}})}}
| '''294,787'''
| '''294,787'''
| '''79.17'''
| '''79.17'''
|-
|-
| style="background: {{Democratic Party (Arabi)/meta/color}}" |
| John Higgins
| John Higgins
| 77,518
| 77,518
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{|class=wikitable
{|class=wikitable
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! colspan=3 | Dartmoor's Republican Senate Primary Election, 2020
! colspan=4 | Dartmoor's Republican Senate Primary Election, 2020
|-
|-
! Candidate
! colspan=2 | Candidate
! Votes
! Votes
! %
! %
|-
|-
| style="background: {{Republican Party (Arabi)/meta/color}}" |
| '''Nelson Walls'''  
| '''Nelson Walls'''  
| '''121,415'''
| '''121,415'''
| '''60.09'''
| '''60.09'''
|-
|-
| style="background: {{Republican Party (Arabi)/meta/color}}" |
| Ursula Winters
| Ursula Winters
| 80,652
| 80,652

Revision as of 00:58, 8 August 2020

For related races, see 2020 Arabin elections.
2020 Arabin Senate elections
← 2018 December 5, 2020 2022 →
11 of the 32 seats (class 1) in the Arabin Senate
17 seats needed for a majority
  Default female Arabi.jpg Default male Arabi.jpg
Leader Mary Nichols Lucien Orton
Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)
Leader since January 8, 2017 January 8, 2015
Leader's seat Saint George Windsor
Current seats 18 14
Seats needed Steady Increase 2-3
Seats up 8 3
Arabin Senate elections, 2020.png
     Democratic senator running
     Republican senator running
     Democratic senator retiring
     No election
Incumbent Majority Leader

Mary Nichols
Democratic Party (Arabi)



The 2020 Arabin Senate elctions will be held on December 5, 2020, with the 11 class 1 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections. The winners will be elected to six-year terms starting from January 5, 2021, to January 5, 2027.

Predictions

Listed below are predictions by six organizations that regularly researches polling data.

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely"": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe"": near-certain chance of victory
State Senator 2020 election ratings
Arabin News
Journal
May 12, 2020 		Independence
Group
July 3, 2020 		New Age
Research
August 3, 2020 		OPP
June 29, 2020 		Political
Forecasting
June 15, 2020 		PolitiTrade
July 1, 2020
Burberry Poppy Smith Lean D Tilt R (flip) Likely R (flip) Tilt D Tilt R (flip) Lean D
Dartmoor Henry Carpenter Tossup Lean D Likely R (flip) Tossup Lean D Lean D
Dellcourt Spencer Pickering Lean R Likely R Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely R Lean R
Lochcoast Lola Fry Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D
New Bristol Andrew Clegg Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R
New Cambridge Winnie Kimes Safe D Likely D Safe D Tilt D Likely D Tossup
New Plymouth Michael Fuller Tilt R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip)
Owens David Coffman Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Tossup Tilt D Tilt R (flip)
Saint George Mary Nichols Tilt R (flip) Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D
Severn Amber Holmes Likely D Likely R (flip) Likely D Tilt R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip)
Windsor Lucien Orton Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Lean R Tossup
Overall D - 14
R - 17
1 tossup 		D - 13
R - 18
1 tossup 		D - 16
R - 16
0 tossups 		D - 13
R - 16
3 tossups 		D - 14
R - 16
2 tossups 		D - 13
R - 17
2 tossups

Election dates

Bold indicates a future date.

State Filing deadline for
major party candidates 		Primary
election 		General
election 		Poll closing
Burberry January 1, 2020 June 20, 2020 December 5, 2020
7:00pm
AST
Dartmoor December 6, 2019 May 2, 2020 December 5, 2020
Dellcourt January 29, 2020 July 11, 2020 December 5, 2020
Lochcoast February 7, 2020 August 1, 2020 December 5, 2020
New Bristol November 11, 2019 March 28, 2020 December 5, 2020
New Cambridge November 27, 2019 April 4, 2020 December 5, 2020
New Plymouth January 29, 2020 July 4, 2020 December 5, 2020
Owens March 13, 2020 August 29, 2020 December 5, 2020
Saint George December 23, 2019 May 9, 2020 December 5, 2020
Severn April 16, 2020 September 12, 2020 December 5, 2020
Windsor March 24, 2020 August 1, 2020 December 5, 2020

Burberry

Burberry election
← 2016 December 5, 2020 2022 →
  Default female Arabi.jpg Default female Arabi.jpg
Nominee Poppy Smith Christina Tyson
Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)
Incumbent Arabin Senator

Poppy Smith
Democratic Party (Arabi)



Incumbent Democrat Poppy Smith was first elected in 2008, defeating incumbent Maureen Rivera. Smith is running for her third term.

On June 20, 2020, Smith won the nomination for the Democratic Party while Representative from Burberry's 2nd district, Christina Tyson won the nomination for the Republican Party.

Burberry's Democratic Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate Votes %
Poppy Smith (incumbent) 211,114 49.63
Robert Wells 114,215 26.86
Martha Gawlik 100,001 23.51
Burberry's Republican Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate Votes %
Christina Tyson 134,916 29.52
Lyle Nelson 103,301 22.60
Anna Gillis 81,109 17.75
Matthew Wells 77,746 17.02
Jessica Wodsworth 59,927 13.11

Dartmoor

Dartmoor election
← 2016 December 5, 2020 2022 →
  Default male Arabi.jpg Default male Arabi.jpg
Nominee Henry Carpenter Nelson Walls
Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)
Incumbent Arabin Senator

Henry Carpenter
Democratic Party (Arabi)



Incumbent Democrat Henry Carpenter was first elected in 2008, defeating incumbent Robert Ferguson. Carpenter is running for his third term.

On May 2, 2020, Carpenter won the nomination for the Democratic Party while former governor of Dartmoor, Nelson Walls, won the nomination for the Republican Party.

Dartmoor's Democratic Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate Votes %
Henry Carpenter (incumbent) 294,787 79.17
John Higgins 77,518 20.83
Dartmoor's Republican Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate Votes %
Nelson Walls 121,415 60.09
Ursula Winters 80,652 39.91

Dellcourt

Dellcourt election
← 2018 December 5, 2020 2024 →
  Default male Arabi.jpg Default female Arabi.jpg
Nominee Spencer Pickering Melissa Jurgens
Party Republican Party (Arabi) Democratic Party (Arabi)
Incumbent Arabin Senator

Spencer Pickering
Republican Party (Arabi)



Incumbent Republican Spencer Pickering was first elected in 2002, defeating incumbent Justin Price. Pickering is running for his fourth term.

On July 11, 2020, Pickering won the nomination for the Republican Party, while Dellcourt State Senator, Melissa Jurgens won the nomination for the Democratic Party.

Dellcourt's Republican Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate Votes %
Spencer Pickering (incumbent) 99,967 73.38
Jennifer Yates 36,275 26.62
Dellcourt's Democratic Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate Votes %
Melissa Jurgens 102,308 53.72
Robin Banks 32,198 16.90
Abby Williams 21,219 11.14
Darius Johnson 17,436 9.15
Mario Russo 11,445 6.02
Thersea Hollis 5,855 3.07

Lochcoast

Lochcoast election
← 2016 December 5, 2020 2022 →
  Default male Arabi.jpg Default male Arabi.jpg
Nominee Michael Sykes Kenneth Tyler
Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)
Incumbent Arabin Senator

Lola Fry
Democratic Party (Arabi)



Incumbent Democrat Lola Fry was first elected in 2008, defeating incumbent Harvey Humphreys. On February 3, 2020, Fry announced her intention to run for Governor of Lochcoast and would not seek a third term in the Senate. The primaries in Lochcoast were on August 1, 2020. State Senators Michael Sykes (D) and Kenneth Tyler (R) won their respective party primaries.

Lochcoast's Democratic Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate Votes %
Michael Sykes 123,879 47.72
Nathan Hardy 74,315 28.62
Dylan Lowe 44,039 16.96
Abby French 17,398 6.70
Lochcoast's Republican Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate Votes %
Kenneth Tyler 115,112 45.34
Callum Baldwin 62,200 24.49
Amanda Folks 42,964 16.92
Roger Camacho 33,663 13.25

New Bristol

New Bristol election
← 2016 December 5, 2020 2022 →
  Default male Arabi.jpg Default female Arabi.jpg
Nominee Andrew Clegg Brynn Bilderback
Party Republican Party (Arabi) Democratic Party (Arabi)
Incumbent Arabin Senator

Andrew Clegg
Republican Party (Arabi)



Incumbent Republican Andrew Clegg was elected as a Conservative Socialist in 2014, defeating Liberal Socialist nominee Evan Goodwin. He is running for a second term. The primaries in New Bristol were on March 28, 2020. Incumbent Senator Andrew Clegg (R) and former Arabin Representative Brynn Bilderback (D) won their respective party primaries.

New Bristol's Republican Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate Votes %
Andrew Clegg (incumbent) 815,997 87.78
Michael Shaw 113,675 12.22
New Bristol's Democratic Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate Votes %
Brynn Bilderback 777,771 68.17
Ryan Buckley 137,516 12.06
Spencer Webb 109,284 9.58
Ethan Martin 79,456 6.96
Alicia Khan 36,946 3.23

New Cambridge

New Plymouth

Owens

Saint George

Severn

Windsor

Notes

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