2020 Arabin Senate elections: Difference between revisions

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Revision as of 05:42, 29 August 2020

For related races, see 2020 Arabin elections.
2020 Arabin Senate elections
← 2018 December 5, 2020 2022 →
11 of the 32 seats (class 1) in the Arabin Senate
17 seats needed for a majority
  Default female Arabi.jpg Default male Arabi.jpg
Leader Mary Nichols Lucien Orton
Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)
Leader since January 8, 2017 January 8, 2015
Leader's seat Saint George Windsor
Current seats 18 14
Seats needed Steady Increase 3
Seats up 8 3
Arabin Senate elections, 2020.png
     Democratic senator running
     Republican senator running
     Democratic senator retiring
     No election
Incumbent Majority Leader

Mary Nichols
Democratic Party (Arabi)



The 2020 Arabin Senate elctions will be held on December 5, 2020, with the 11 class 1 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections. The winners will be elected to six-year terms starting from January 5, 2021, to January 5, 2027.

Predictions

Listed below are predictions by six organizations that regularly researches polling data.

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely"": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe"": near-certain chance of victory
State Senator 2020 election ratings
Arabin News
Journal
August 14, 2020 		Independence
Group
July 3, 2020 		New Age
Research
August 3, 2020 		OPP
June 29, 2020 		Political
Forecasting
August 28, 2020 		PolitiTrade
July 1, 2020
Burberry Poppy Smith Likely D Tilt R (flip) Likely R (flip) Tilt D Lean D Lean D
Dartmoor Henry Carpenter Tilt D Lean D Likely R (flip) Tossup Likely D Lean D
Dellcourt Spencer Pickering Lean D (flip) Likely R Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean R Lean R
Lochcoast Lola Fry Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D
New Bristol Andrew Clegg Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Safe R Likely R
New Cambridge Winnie Kimes Safe D Likely D Safe D Tilt D Safe D Tossup
New Plymouth Michael Fuller Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely D Likely R (flip) Safe D Lean R (flip)
Owens David Coffman Tossup Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Tossup Lean D Tilt R (flip)
Saint George Mary Nichols Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D Tilt D Lean D
Severn Amber Holmes Lean D Likely R (flip) Likely D Tilt R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip)
Windsor Lucien Orton Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Tilt R Tossup
Overall D - 16
R - 14
2 tossup 		D - 13
R - 18
1 tossup 		D - 16
R - 16
0 tossups 		D - 13
R - 16
3 tossups 		D - 17
R - 15
0 tossups 		D - 13
R - 17
2 tossups

Election dates

Bold indicates a future date.

State Filing deadline for
major party candidates 		Primary
election 		General
election 		Poll closing
Burberry January 1, 2020 June 20, 2020 December 5, 2020
7:00pm
AST
Dartmoor December 6, 2019 May 2, 2020
Dellcourt January 29, 2020 July 11, 2020
Lochcoast February 7, 2020 August 1, 2020
New Bristol November 11, 2019 March 28, 2020
New Cambridge November 27, 2019 April 4, 2020
New Plymouth January 29, 2020 July 4, 2020
Owens March 13, 2020 August 29, 2020
Saint George December 23, 2019 May 9, 2020
Severn April 16, 2020 September 12, 2020
Windsor March 24, 2020 August 1, 2020

Burberry

Burberry election
← 2016 December 5, 2020 2022 →
  Default female Arabi.jpg Default female Arabi.jpg
Nominee Poppy Smith Christina Tyson
Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)
Incumbent Arabin Senator

Poppy Smith
Democratic Party (Arabi)



Incumbent Democrat Poppy Smith was first elected in 2008, defeating incumbent Maureen Rivera. Smith is running for her third term.

On June 20, 2020, Smith won the nomination for the Democratic Party while Representative from Burberry's 2nd district, Christina Tyson won the nomination for the Republican Party.

Primary results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Poppy Smith (incumbent) 211,114 49.63%
Democratic Robert Wells 114,215 26.86%
Democratic Martha Gawlik 100,001 23.51%
Total votes 425,330 100.00%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Christina Tyson 134,916 29.52%
Republican Lyle Nelson 103,301 22.60%
Republican Anna Gillis 81,109 17.75%
Republican Matthew Wells 77,746 17.02%
Republican Jessica Wodsworth 59,927 13.11%
Total votes 456,999 100.00%

Dartmoor

Dartmoor election
← 2016 December 5, 2020 2022 →
  Default male Arabi.jpg Default male Arabi.jpg
Nominee Henry Carpenter Nelson Walls
Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)
Incumbent Arabin Senator

Henry Carpenter
Democratic Party (Arabi)



Incumbent Democrat Henry Carpenter was first elected in 2008, defeating incumbent Robert Ferguson. Carpenter is running for his third term.

On May 2, 2020, Carpenter won the nomination for the Democratic Party while former governor of Dartmoor, Nelson Walls, won the nomination for the Republican Party.

Primary results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Henry Carpenter (incumbent) 294,787 79.17%
Democratic John Higgins 77,518 20.83%
Total votes 372,305 100.00%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Nelson Walls 121,415 60.09%
Republican Ursula Winters 80,652 39.91%
Total votes 202,067 100.00%

Dellcourt

Dellcourt election
← 2018 December 5, 2020 2024 →
  Default male Arabi.jpg Default female Arabi.jpg
Nominee Spencer Pickering Melissa Jurgens
Party Republican Party (Arabi) Democratic Party (Arabi)
Incumbent Arabin Senator

Spencer Pickering
Republican Party (Arabi)



Incumbent Republican Spencer Pickering was first elected in 2002, defeating incumbent Justin Price. Pickering is running for his fourth term.

On July 11, 2020, Pickering won the nomination for the Republican Party, while Dellcourt State Senator, Melissa Jurgens won the nomination for the Democratic Party.

Primary results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Spencer Pickering (incumbent) 99,967 73.38%
Republican Jennifer Yates 36,275 26.62%
Total votes 136,242 100.00%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Melissa Jurgens 102,308 53.72%
Democratic Robin Banks 32,198 16.10%
Democratic Abby Williams 21,219 11.14%
Democratic Darius Johnson 17,436 9.15%
Democratic Mario Russo 11,445 6.02%
Democratic Thersea Hollis 5,855 3.07%
Total votes 190,461 100.00%

Lochcoast

Lochcoast election
← 2016 December 5, 2020 2022 →
  Default male Arabi.jpg Default male Arabi.jpg
Nominee Michael Sykes Kenneth Tyler
Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)
Incumbent Arabin Senator

Lola Fry
Democratic Party (Arabi)



Incumbent Democrat Lola Fry was first elected in 2008, defeating incumbent Harvey Humphreys. On February 3, 2020, Fry announced her intention to run for Governor of Lochcoast and would not seek a third term in the Senate. The primaries in Lochcoast were on August 1, 2020. State Senators Michael Sykes (D) and Kenneth Tyler (R) won their respective party primaries.

Primary results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Michael Sykes 123,879 47.72%
Democratic Nathan Hardy 74,315 28.62%
Democratic Dylan Lowe 44,039 16.96%
Democratic Abby French 17,398 6.70%
Total votes 259,631 100.00%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kenneth Taylor 115,112 45.34%
Republican Callum Baldwin 62,200 24.49%
Republican Amanda Folks 42,964 16.92%
Republican Roger Camacho 33,663 13.25%
Total votes 253,939 100.00%

New Bristol

New Bristol election
← 2016 December 5, 2020 2022 →
  Default male Arabi.jpg Default female Arabi.jpg
Nominee Andrew Clegg Brynn Bilderback
Party Republican Party (Arabi) Democratic Party (Arabi)
Incumbent Arabin Senator

Andrew Clegg
Republican Party (Arabi)



Incumbent Republican Andrew Clegg was elected as a Conservative Socialist in 2014, defeating Liberal Socialist nominee Evan Goodwin. He is running for a second term. The primaries in New Bristol were on March 28, 2020. Incumbent Senator Andrew Clegg (R) and former Arabin Representative Brynn Bilderback (D) won their respective party primaries.

Primary results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Andrew Clegg (incumbent) 815,997 87.78%
Republican Michael Shaw 113,675 12.22%
Total votes 929,672 100.00%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Brynn Bilderback 777,771 68.17%
Democratic Ryan Buckley 137,516 12.06%
Democratic Spencer Webb 109,284 9.58%
Democratic Ethan Martin 79,456 6.96%
Democratic Alicia Khan 36,946 3.23%
Total votes 1,140,973 100.00%

New Cambridge

New Cambridge election
← 2016 December 5, 2020 2022 →
  John Freeman IV - Arabi.jpg Default male Arabi.jpg
Nominee John Freeman IV Ryan Wyatt
Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)
Incumbent Arabin Senator

Winnie Kimes
Democratic Party (Arabi)



Incumbent Democrat Winnie Kimes was elected as a Liberal Socialist in 2014. She ran for a second term but ultimately lost in the primary election to John Freeman IV. The primary election in New Cambridge was on April 4, 2020. John Freeman IV (D) and Ryan Wyatt (R) won their repsective party primaries.

Freeman is the younger brother of the 28th president of Arabi, Walter Freeman.

Primary results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Freeman IV 2,116,291 50.01%
Democratic Winnie Kimes (incumbent) 2,115,720 49.99%
Total votes 4,232,011 100.00%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ryan Wyatt 2,117,605 100.00%
Total votes 2,117,605 100.00%

New Plymouth

New Plymouth election
← 2018 December 5, 2020 2024 →
  Default male Arabi.jpg Default female Arabi.jpg
Nominee Michael Fuller Charlotte Marshall
Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)
Incumbent Arabin Senator

Michael Fuller
Democratic Party (Arabi)



Incumbent Democrat Michael Fuller was elected as a Liberal Socialist in 2002. He is running for his fourth term. The primary election in New Plymouth was on July 4, 2020. Incumbent Michael Fuller (D) and Charlotte Marshall (R) won their respective party primaries.

Primary results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Michael Fuller (incumbent) 394,152 100.00%
Total votes 394,152 100.00%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Charlotte Marshall 322,527 49.52%
Republican Ethan Day 156,221 23.98%
Republican Paul McLawhorn 131,672 20.21%
Republican Kieran Sharpe 41,000 6.29%
Total votes 651,420 100.00%

Owens

Owens statewide primary election is scheduled to take place on August 29, 2020.

Saint George

Saint George election
← 2018 December 5, 2020 2024 →
  Default female Arabi.jpg Default male Arabi.jpg
Nominee Mary Nichols Sean Whitehouse
Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)
Incumbent Arabin Senator

Mary Nichols
Democratic Party (Arabi)



Incumbent Democrat Mary Nichols was elected as a Liberal Socialist in 2002. She is running for her fourth term. The primary election in Saint George was on May 9, 2020. Incumbent Mary Nichols (D) and Sean Whitehouse (R) won their respective party primaries.

Nichols is the current Senate Majority Leader.

Primary results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mary Nichols (incumbent) 277,518 100.00%
Total votes 277,518 100.00%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Sean Whitehouse 201,134 46.89%
Republican Ethan Conway 118,123 27.53%
Republican Hal Scott 109,783 25.58%
Total votes 429,040 100.00%

Severn

Severn's statewide primary election is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2020.

Windsor

Windsor election
← 2018 December 5, 2020 2024 →
  Default male Arabi.jpg Default female Arabi.jpg
Nominee Lucien Orton Joan Matthews
Party Republican Party (Arabi) Democratic Party (Arabi)
Incumbent Arabin Senator

Lucien Orton
Republican Party (Arabi)



Incumbent Republican Lucien Orton was elected as a Conservative Socialist in 2002. He is running for his fourth term. The primary election in Windsor was on August 1, 2020. Incumbent Lucien Orton (R) and Joan Matthews (D) won their respective party primaries.

Orton is the current Senate Minority Leader.

Primary results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Lucien Orton (incumbent) 199,201 71.81%
Republican Robert Thornton 78,230 28.19%
Total votes 277,431 100.00%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joan Matthews 165,026 42.74%
Democratic Patrick Johnson 127,546 33.03%
Democratic Leon Winkel 93,581 24.23%
Total votes 386,153 100.00%

Notes

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