2022 Arabin Senate elections: Difference between revisions

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! colspan=6 | 2022 election ratings
! colspan=6 | 2022 election ratings
|- style="vertical-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:center"
! <!--(1)--> Arabin News <br/> Journal <br/> {{small|November 4, 2021}}
! <!--(1)--> Arabin News <br/> Journal <br/> {{small|February 14, 2022}}
! <!--(2)--> [[Political Forecasting (Arabi)|Political Forecasting]] <br/> {{small|January 3, 2022}}
! <!--(2)--> [[Political Forecasting (Arabi)|Political </br> Forecasting]] <br/> {{small|February 1, 2022}}
! <!--(3)--> PolitiTrade <br/> {{small|January 13, 2022}}
! <!--(3)--> PolitiTrade <br/> {{small|February 6, 2022}}
|-
|-
! [[Burberry (Arabi)|Burberry]]
! [[Burberry (Arabi)|Burberry]]
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Nelson, Robert" | Robert Nelson
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Nelson, Robert" | Robert Nelson
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|R}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|R}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|R}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|R}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|R}}
|-
|-
! [[Dartmoor (Arabi)|Dartmoor]]
! [[Dartmoor (Arabi)|Dartmoor]]
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Devalle, Diana" | Diane Devalle
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Devalle, Diana" | Diane Devalle
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|D}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|D}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R|flip}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|D}}
|-
|-
! [[Drakeland (Arabi)|Drakeland]]
! [[Drakeland (Arabi)|Drakeland]]
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Sutton, Luca" | Luca Sutton<br/>(retiring)
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Sutton, Luca" | Luca Sutton<br/>(retiring)
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|D|flip}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|R}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
|-
|-
! [[Lochcoast (Arabi)|Lochcoast]]
! [[Lochcoast (Arabi)|Lochcoast]]
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Natal, Tamala" | Tamala Natal
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Natal, Tamala" | Tamala Natal
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|D}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|D}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|D}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|D}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|D}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|D}}
|-
|-
! [[New Bristol (Arabi)|New Bristol]]
! [[New Bristol (Arabi)|New Bristol]]
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Blackburn, Sean" | Sean Blackburn<br/>(retiring)
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Blackburn, Sean" | Sean Blackburn<br/>(retiring)
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|R}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|D|flip}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|R}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
|-
|-
! [[New Cambridge (Arabi)|New Cambridge]]
! [[New Cambridge (Arabi)|New Cambridge]]
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| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|D}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|D}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|D}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|D}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|D}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|D}}
|-
|-
! [[New London (Arabi)|New London]]
! [[New London (Arabi)|New London]]
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Ireland, Sylvia" | Sylvia Ireland
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Ireland, Sylvia" | Sylvia Ireland
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|R}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|R}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Safe|R}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|R}}
|-
|-
! [[New Plymouth (Arabi)|New Plymouth]]
! [[New Plymouth (Arabi)|New Plymouth]]
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Greer, Justine" | Justine Greer
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Greer, Justine" | Justine Greer
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R|flip}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|R|flip}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|R|flip}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|D}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
|-
|-
! [[Owens (Arabi)|Owens]]
! [[Owens (Arabi)|Owens]]
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| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|R|flip}}
|-
|-
! [[Terranova (Arabi)|Terranova]]
! [[Terranova (Arabi)|Terranova]]
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Shepard, Kiera" | Kiera Shepard
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Shepard, Kiera" | Kiera Shepard
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Likely|R}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|R}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R}}
|-
|-
! [[Walpole (Arabi)|Walpole]]
! [[Walpole (Arabi)|Walpole]]
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Castro, Brenda" | Brenda Castro
| {{Party shading/Democratic (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Castro, Brenda" | Brenda Castro
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|D}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|R|flip}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|D}}
|-
|-
! [[Welwald (Arabi)|Welwald]]
! [[Welwald (Arabi)|Welwald]]
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Bailey, Victoria" | Victoria Bailey<br/>(retiring)
| {{Party shading/Republican (Arabi)}} data-sort-value="Bailey, Victoria" | Victoria Bailey<br/>(retiring)
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R}}
| <!--(1)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|R}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tilt|D|flip}}
| <!--(2)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Tossup}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R}}
| <!--(3)--> {{ArabinRaceRating|Lean|R}}


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! colspan=2 | Overall
! colspan=2 | Overall
<!--ANJ-->| D - 15<br/>R - 15<br/>2 tossup
<!--ANJ-->| D - 15<br/>R - 14<br/>3 tossup
<!--PF-->| D - 14<br/>R - 13<br/>5 tossups
<!--PF-->| D - 14<br/>R - 14<br/>4 tossups
<!--PT-->| D - 14<br/>R - 15<br/>3 tossups
<!--PT-->| D - 15<br/>R - 14<br/>3 tossups
|}
|}


Revision as of 20:31, 19 February 2022

For related races, see 2022 Arabin elections and 2022 Arabin presidential election.
2022 Arabin Senate elections
← 2020 December 3, 2022 2024 →
12 of the 32 seats in the Arabin Senate
17[1] seats needed for a majority
  Default female Arabi.jpg Default male Arabi.jpg
Leader Mary Nichols Lucien Orton
Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)
Leader since January 8, 2017 January 8, 2015
Leader's seat Saint George Windsor
Last election 17 15
Seats needed Steady Increase 1–2[2]
Seats up 6 6
2022 Arabin Senate election.png
     Democratic incumbent running
     Democratic incumbent retiring
     Republican incumbent running
     Republican incumbent retiring
     No election
Incumbent Majority Leader

Mary Nichols
Democratic Party (Arabi)



The 2022 Arabin Senate elctions will be held on December 3, 2022, with the 11 class 2 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections and 1 class 3 seat being contested in a special election.[3] The winners will be elected to six-year terms starting from January 5, 2023, to January 5, 2029.

Predictions

Listed below are predictions by three organizations that regularly researches polling data.

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely"": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe"": near-certain chance of victory
State Senator 2022 election ratings
Arabin News
Journal
February 14, 2022 		Political
Forecasting
February 1, 2022 		PolitiTrade
February 6, 2022
Burberry Robert Nelson Safe R Likely R Likely R
Dartmoor Diane Devalle Lean D Tossup Tilt D
Drakeland Luca Sutton
(retiring) 		Tossup Lean R Tossup
Lochcoast Tamala Natal Safe D Likely D Safe D
New Bristol Sean Blackburn
(retiring) 		Tossup Tilt D (flip) Tossup
New Cambridge Sebastian Whittaker Safe D Safe D Likely D
New London Sylvia Ireland Lean R Lean R Tilt R
New Plymouth Justine Greer Tilt R (flip) Tossup Tossup
Owens Randy Elliot
(retiring) 		Tossup Tossup Tilt R (flip)
Terranova Kiera Shepard Likely R Tilt R Lean R
Walpole Brenda Castro Tilt D Tilt R (flip) Tilt D
Welwald Victoria Bailey
(retiring) 		Tilt R Tossup Lean R
Overall D - 15
R - 14
3 tossup 		D - 14
R - 14
4 tossups 		D - 15
R - 14
3 tossups

Election dates

Bold indicates a future date.

State Filing deadline
for candidates 		Primary
election 		General
election 		Poll closing
Burberry January 1, 2022 April 16, 2022 December 3, 2022
7:00pm
AST
Dartmoor December 15, 2021 June 11, 2022
Drakeland February 1, 2022 May 14, 2022
Lochcoast February 1, 2022 April 30, 2022
New Bristol December 2, 2021 March 12, 2022
New Cambridge November 30, 2021 June 18, 2022
New London January 5, 2022 May 28, 2022
New Plymouth January 3, 2022 April 9, 2022
Owens December 13, 2021 March 19, 2022
Terranova December 20, 2021 April 2, 2022
Walpole February 3, 2022 May 7, 2022
Welwald January 10, 2022 June 25, 2022

Notes

  1. ↑ 16 plus the vice president
  2. ↑ If the Republicans win the presidency they need to gain one additional seat, if they lose they need two additional seats to become the majority in the Senate
  3. ↑ Robert Stephens became vice president on October 1, 2021, vacating his senate seat. His successor, Justine Greer, has announced she will run for the seat to fill the remainder of the term.
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