Harold Osborne

The Right Honourable Harold Osborne KC
Osborne in 2023
Forethane of Esthursia
Incumbent
Assumed office 30 January 2015
Monarch	Arthur VI
Deputy	Jeremy Wilson (2015-2022, 2023-) Edelard Burnside (2022-2023) Charlotte Atkinson (2022-2023)
Preceded by	John Largan
Leader of the Social Democrats
Incumbent
Assumed office 30 January 2015
Preceded by	John Largan
Reeve for Care
In office 23 January 2011 – 30 January 2015
Prime Minister	John Largan
Preceded by	Rosemary Manning
Succeeded by	Jeremy Wilson
Shadow Reeve for Working Rights
In office 17 June 2007 – 23 January 2011
Leader	John Largan
Preceded by	Jacob Newham-Smith
Succeeded by	William Gloucester
Shadow Reeve for Health and Care
In office 17 June 2007 – 23 January 2011
Leader	Mark Willesden
Preceded by	Graham Jones
Succeeded by	Rosemary Manning
Thane for Brantley Newcaster
Incumbent
Assumed office 2 April 2006
Preceded by	Sir Edmund North
Minister for Brantley Greenhill
In office 16 October 1998 – 2 April 2006
Preceded by	Janine Marbury
Succeeded by	Richard Elmstead
Majority	28,789 (40.7%)
Personal details
Born	Harold Llewellyn George Osborne (1968-06-19) 19 June 1968 Brantley, Esthursia
Nationality	Esthursian (Osynstric)
Political party	Social Democrats
Spouse	Adelin Edwards (m. 1995)
Children	2
Residence	192 Llywellyn's Street
Alma mater	University of Sutton (BA in PPE, 1989); University of Sutton (LLM, 1991)
Occupation	Politician
Profession	Human rights lawyer, economist

Harold Osborne (Harold Llewellyn George Osborne; born 19 June, 1968) has been the Forethane of Esthursia since 30 January, 2015. Alongside his role as Forethane, Osborne also serves as the Leader of the Social Democrats and has represented Brantley South as a Baron since the 2006 Esthursian general election. He has also previously served as Reeve for (Health and Care) under John Largan's administration, and in the Shadow Redery under Largan and Mark Willesden, having been seen as a rising star throughout the 2000s Harding era. His position as Shadow Reeve for Working Rights became unexpectedly important after the 2010 market crash and preceding industrial action, and he became a vocal critic of the Einarsson government. Since October 2023, Osborne has led his second majority government, following coalition governments in 2015-2018 and 2018-2023, although his existing Chancellor under the coalition government of 2018-2023 has remained a member of the Government as an independent.

Osborne's government has since espoused Fourth Way politics; larger state involvement, removing private providers from public services, raising land value and wealth taxes to redistribute, as well as record levels of public investment, seeing the period of relatively conservative economic policy on investment and infrastructure end. As a trade unionist and pro-welfare politician, Osborne has overseen a period of high wealth redistribution, and unionisation, resulting in friction with businesses but record and sustained wage growth, particularly in the lower quintiles. By the 2020s, half of Esthursian GDP was spent by the government, while the UHCS' improvements and expansions in provision of care - and resulting increases to Esthursian health and life expectancy - have been amongst his government's key priorities, as well as redistribution, public investment, and geopolitical aims. Osborne has also increased Esthursia's role in geopolitics, including over the UAS, forming V4, and intervening in Aurorian conflicts as part of the Crisis in Auroria, while more aggressively asserting its stance through increased military spending and capabilities, as well as more assertive foreign policy directives. His government has pursued state secular aims, including scrapping world religions in schools and banning religious schools, attracting controversy.

Harold Osborne's leadership has been described as the "return of socialism" by many of both his critics and supporters, despite Osborne describing himself as a "social democrat" initially, and four of the six consecutive general election victories have occurred under Osborne's tenure, most recently in September 2022. The Social Democrats under Osborne remain in power for the longest consecutive term since the Workers' Union under George Asmont in the early-to-mid 20th century, and Osborne himself is the longest-serving Forethane of this century. His tenure has overseen a leftward movement of the Social Democrats, and a more active role for Esthursia geopolitically than existed before. Critics have blamed him for the rise of left-populism within Esthursia, compromises to religious freedoms as well as participating in factionalism for personal advantage, while his supporters have praised his strong economic record of reducing inequality, his personal charisma and appearance of pragmatism, including handling the rise of geopolitical tensions across Auroria towards the more recent part of his tenure.

Early life

Osborne was born and grew up in suburban Brantley, in the north of Osynstry, before moving to the West Barrows city of Lancestre at age 9. He attended selective state schools for both primary and secondary, before moving back to Brantley for university, attending Sutton. It is known that Osborne joined the Social Democrats in his first year of university, after meeting with then-Forethane Martha Grantham.

Osborne studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the Lorestead of Sutton, a Sutton Group research-university within five kilometres of his home borough.

Before politics

Osborne entered the field of work in law in 1990, when a law firm in Shefforth employed him as a junior barrister. He had also entered journalism, working with the Daily Herald - a newspaper which would later endorse his leadership campaign and election campaign - and mainly focussing on working rights. Osborne disclosed in an article in 1995 that he had voted Social Democrat, and had done so since being eligible in the 1986 local elections, backing the Grantham government.

Early political career

Osborne voted for John Largan to be Social Democrat leader in 1998, who lost to Mark Willesden. Remaining close to the Largan group, he began to maintain close contact with Largan throughout the noughties, earning him the nickname "second place's second hand man". Osborne expressed discontent in the Willesden government, stating that it had "abandoned its values", and considered defecting to the Progressive Group. Facing criticism for his remarks on Southerners "being a bit passive", he resigned as Shadow Redery member for 18 months before returning to his position. Osborne also voted alongside the 2006 coup on Mark Willesden, ending his tenure after two successive electoral defeats, and repeated his vote for John Largan.

Going on to serve in Largan's Redery, Osborne both ran the Health and Care (shortened to Care during Largan's government) and Working Rights rederies, with his position being "avidly followed by both moderates and hardliners", over his crucial position during the General Strike of 2010. After the January 2011 Esthursian general election, Osborne entered government in his old roles, and served over the expansion of the mental health budget, the opening of New Start and rehabilitation programmes, the start of the Social Care Service - which merged into the UHCS under Osborne's later tenure - and the codification of the right to secondary action.

Forethegn of the Union (2015-present)

First term (2015-2018)

The general election of 2014 occurred against the backdrop of an expectation for Largan's landslide three years before to be reversed into a slim Conservative Union government, returning the party to governance after just 3 years of left-leaning government. Largan's personal popularity, and a divisive campaign by the right marred by the debate to expel Einarsson, reversed these fortunes and delivered an unexpected Social Democratic government; however the damage had already been done to Largan's record, and the Social Democrats had fallen back to second-largest in the House of Thanes, albeit still in government. John Largan initially attempted to stay in power, having successfully wangled out a coalition deal with the prominent new left-wing Progressive Group, however he viewed his position untenable - especially as the Progressive Group significantly curbed his power to lead as a centre-left Forethane, and other figures such as Osborne himself were manoeuvring - and resigned in December 2014.

Harold Osborne ran to become leader of the Social Democrats successfully in January 2015, following a no confidence vote in John Largan, and promised to "steer the party back to its ideological heartlands" - defeating hard-left candidate Wilbert White, and Third Way Willesden-era candidate Sophia Blackburn. Soon after, Osborne consolidated a deal with the Progressive Group - a former faction of the Social Democrats - to unite and appoint their leader, Jeremy Wilson, to become Chancellor.

Osborne's early years were punctuated by a steady but clear reversal of thirty years of moderate Social Democratic leadership. The results were polarising; membership figures rose significantly, boosting the party back to pre-2002 levels and bolstering its finances, but discontent within the parliamentary group was at its strongest in Osborne's first term. Osborne's leadership however came with the implicit threat that his ousting would precede a hard-left such as White, or Wilson whose party unified with Osborne's in 2015, so disquiet was muted and blunted significantly. Osborne's first term also brought about marked success; his personal popularity rose as he brokered deals between factions perceived as unworkable, such as between the declining Third Way group and the Progressive caucus, while the economy recovered markedly.

Harold Osborne's first term was primarily targeted at undoing the legacy of the Harding government. Financial regulation was particularly targeted - the Subprime Loans Act 2016 was a blanket ban on sub-prime loans, while a decade's worth income tax cuts on higher tax bands were entirely scrapped; Largan's promise to not increase the top rate of income tax was also scrapped, creating significant backlash in the centre of the party. The Osborne-Wilson period's landmark passage, however, was the total ban on zero-hour contracts in the 2016 Budget, alongside a wider "bonfire" of anti-union legislation passed by the Greenwood and Harding governments.

In October 2017, Osborne's leadership faced the Wilson budgetary crisis; the 2017 budget had shocked markets and spooked the economy, in turn causing a quarterly stagnation. Wilson was handed his resignation notice during the budget announcement, a stunt which was aimed at salvaging his reputation with the centre of the party; however his replacement, Lauren Bowen, was from a slightly softer version of Wilson's economic ideology. The Wilson and Bowen tenures have earnt the nickname "Osbornian economics", for the historically unorthodox left-wing economics conducted and increasingly openly sympathised with by Harold Osborne himself. Wilson's policy of "vertically integrating health" - the UHCS absorbing many pharmaceutical suppliers - was however kept as a cornerstone of Fourth Way economics in Esthursia.

The general election of 2018 came at a poor time - however the economic rebound from the 2010 crisis returned in November, while Osborne's handling of the crisis had cemented his image as a capable, pragmatic leader. His opponent, Stephen Alborough, was also the Conservative Union's leader in 2014; having recovered his reputation and become the most popular candidate throughout the end of 2017, Alborough's chaotic campaign, punctuated by the HeadStone and other gaffes reversed Osborne's fortunes.

Second term (2018-2022)

Harold Osborne's government was returned to power with a significantly larger majority, the second election in which the Social Democrats had exceeded expectations, though by the end of the campaign it was generally expected the government would be returned, unlike that of 2014. Stephen Alborough resigned weeks after the election, and the Social Democrats entered a coalition agreement with Green-Left in the upper house. Osborne had gained the first majority from a fixed-term election for the Social Democrats since 1998.

Osborne's second term was perhaps the most significant for the internal politics of his party; his resounding mandate, and the resignation of some key moderates, had allowed him to hasten the movement of the party towards the pro-union left. Chancellor Lauren Bowen also became more overtly socialist; her 2018 and 2019 Budgets reinstituted the wealth tax scrapped under the Greenwood government, while the 2020 Budget raised capital gains tax to equivalent to income tax. His majority was also expanded in the Ministry and his coalition's in the Thanage by successive by-election victories; the Conservative Union descended into crisis after the election of a centrist leader - Rosemary Manning - and its right-wing contingent splintered off in mid-2019.

During the second term, Osborne successively increased the military budget year-on-year, increased public spending markedly, and oversaw a period of relative economic prosperity. The National Food Service was legislated for in 2019, bringing about local authority-administered food provision to the poorest, while his New Towns project broadly began during this period; he opened the first New Town, Denby Dale, in the run-up to the April 2022 election.

Osborne also conducted significant constitutional reform during his second term, and was appointed to the King's Counsel in 2019. The formation of a Code of Atlish Law, legalisation of cannabis, scrapping of Antisocial Retributive Orders (AROs) and tightening of employment law remain key legislative achievements of the 2018-2022 ministry.

The end of his term began a period of continental instability; the Osborne government condemned the Tardine coup in the autumn of 2021, becoming one of its most vociferous opponents, and refused to recognise it at any point. Osborne also oversaw the entrance of Esthursia in the UAS in early 2022.

Third and fourth terms (2022-)

Osborne was returned to power in April 2022, however his majority had been wiped out in the Ministry, and the Thanage coalition were to govern with a majority that barely exceeded that of the Opposition. Although he was not under threat from within the party, his legislative agenda slowed during this period, although the composition of his party had changed markedly once again in favour of the mid-left - his faction - and the hard-left.

The 2022 election swiftly brought about the beginning of the transition away from a monarchy - King Arthur announced on his Second Diamond Jubilee, the 75th anniversary of him becoming King, that he intended for his reign to be the last, supported implicitly by Harold Osborne's soft republicanist stance and explicitly by his new coalition partners, the hard-left Green-Left coalition.

Harold Osborne spent much of his short third term wrestling for power with Green-Left. Osborne's nuclear renewal plans were confirmed by Berworth, despite Green-Left opposition; his response to this was to scrap broad decriminalisation laws, and institute a post-2001 date of birth smoking ban, both policies opposed by the junior government party. An ambitious infrastructure act was passed in May 2022, and the start of a major redistribution programme began formally in his fourth term was legislated for.

However, the key issue of Osborne's third term proved to be Wilson's comments against Prydania, nicknamed Wilsongate. Wilson had spoken before the Houses of Berworth against a piece of Prydanian domestic legislation, provoking international backlash; Harold Osborne, and Wilson himself, would pay a state visit to Prydania alongside the King in January 2023, however the damage done to Osborne's leadership in this period was further exacerbated by a perception that the UAS was failing to act.

UAS scepticism became a key issue of campaign following his re-election in September 2022, in which he gained a majority in the Ministry and seats in the Thanage, albeit not as many as he had initially hoped. Appointing John Largan as UAS Ambassador and later Redethane for International Development, Largan set about criticising publicly the UAS' perceived failure to admit the post-conflict regime of Tardine, as well as Sorovia, while pressure mounted from within the party and public opinion to call a referendum; this referendum was triggered in April 2023, in which Osborne campaigned to remain in the UAS but on a platform of "institutional reformation"; Remain won by a 55-45 margin. Furthermore, in January of that year, the Allied Nations was formed between Osborne's Esthursia, Prydania and Norsia as an organisation for democracies to protect and safeguard democratic interests, the rule of fair law and human rights. Perceptions of failure to internally reform the UAS from within the government, amid tensions on the Imperium and Iolantan crises and the stalling of admissions, resulted in Esthursia's departure from the UAS, which was finalised on 1 November, 2023. Osborne also signed a trade and customs deal with Aubervijr prior to leaving, to maintain UAS benefits with its largest member nation. Osborne also instituted anti-loan shark laws and trade unionist laws in this period.

Harold Osborne's government in its fourth term became more overtly left-wing; its legislation against religious and private schools, and the Collective Arbitration Act - which brought about some of the strongest trade union powers Esthursia has legislated for - as well as the ban on under-18 baptisms, have been key victories for the hard-left in the party. The post-2022 composition of Osborne's party also remains one of the most radical of its existence, with the New Left faction rising significantly in influence post-September in particular, while moderates have primarily left the party or joined the Moderates since the start of his second term. Osborne himself remains relatively popular, and his economic reputation has been broadly positive, with Esthursia broadly catching up on its productivity gap sustained in the 2010 crisis. In October 2023, Osborne was forced to apologise following a strong condemnation from the High Deemery during a Forethane's Asking, after the law banning under-18 baptisms was unanimously declared unconstitutional, while the October 4 attacks led to a staunch government response against ultranationalist groups, moving to pressure the watchdogs into punitive action against the political group behind it within the Houses of Berworth, Renewal Front.

In late October 2023, Osborne secured a Thanage majority once again following the victory of Isolda Marlow in the Midlands, and reshuffled his Redery into that of a majority with Chancellor Burnside remaining a member as an independent. This government has begun to institute tax reforms, including scrapping corporation tax in favour of a cash flow tax at destinations (DBCFT), overseen the departure of Esthursia from the UAS, attended V4's first meeting, and formed the Redery for Public Safety following a rise in gun crime and "institutional" issues, particularly in the Constabulary of Weskerby, worsened by decentralisation of policing. In November 2023, Osborne pulled out of a trade.deal with Scalvia, condemning its "failure to oppose" Iolanta and a wider breakdown of goodwill.

Political positions

Harold Osborne identifies as an "aspirational socialist", as outlined in his April 2022 campaign; he previously identified as a social democrat. Osborne sits between centre-left and left-wing, and has tended left throughout his leadership, bringing the Social Democrats into a more overtly socialist position.

Relationship to socialism

Osborne was initially ambivalent to descriptions of himself as socialist in the early 2010s. Although he described himself as an avid trade unionist in the 2010 crisis, he refused to support an assertion that he was a socialist to ANBC News journalist Henning Welman, replying that "I very much identify as a Social Democrat, party and politics". In a 2015 interview during his leadership campaign, he stated he was "neither moderate nor hardline", and positioned himself as a "run-of-the-mill social democrat", though distinguished himself with Largan by stating he would not back the pledge against raising the top-rate of income tax. His decision to U-turn on support for Largan's Economic Pledges in 2016, stating the policies were not "steadfast and bold enough for the economy we're building", is seen as a key moment of juncture from his previous broadly centre-left position.

His close working relationship with Jeremy Wilson and Lauren Bowen, and increasingly overt disapproval of moderate Social Democratic policies, have led to a movement from social democracy towards the moderate fringes of democratic socialism in recent years. Osborne described himself as a "red-green socialist" in 2021, and an "aspirational socialist" in 2022. In 2023, his government's increasingly close working relationship with Green-Left and one of its leaders in particular, Charles Burnside (who was appointed to the Chancellery), further indicated Osborne's leftward movement. Despite this, the November 2023 reshuffle has resulted in more soft-left and mid-left members of the party replacing Green-Left members, and notably, the New Left Reeve for Care was demoted and replaced by a slightly more moderate member.

Economic policy

Harold Osborne's economic policy is broadly to the left of social democracy. His tenure has seen a tightening of financial and employment legislation, the "bonfire" of anti-union laws (and the wider closeness of his government and trade unionism), and the "demarketisation" of public services, reversing policies undertaken throughout the Willesden and Largan eras of the same party. Government spending rose to above half of GDP for the first time since 1984, while he has strongly believed in tax reform, most notably aligning with his Green-Left Chancellor Edelard Burnside on economic matters. Osborne's government has also pursued a broad economic redistribution programme, and he has personally spoken out against the existence of billionaires, while his Chancellors have all been of socialist economic origin. Distribution of wealth has equalised significantly under Osborne's tenure, particularly due to wealth taxes, rising wage negotiating power and redistributive policies pursued under the Osborne ministries. Broadband was made free in 2023 under his government, while he personally advocates for strengthening Esthursia's "relaxed work-life culture," and wages have risen significantly since his entrance as Forethane in 2015, in particular after his introduction of industrial democracy reforms in the 2020s. In 2024, Osborne passed legislation limiting the work-week to 30 hours (every 6 days), passing a citizens' dividend and taxing wealth to fund child trust funds.

Osborne is a soft unionist who opposes both Cordanic and Asthonic independence, as stated in a parliamentary speech against the matter in 2018, but states that he "will not block" a referendum on independence "should its popularity be warranted". He has, however, been open to working with the HNU on economic grounds and "common matters", and ended the "cold warfare" doctrine of Social Democrats to the HNU gradually.

Social policy

Osborne is broadly perceived as being more moderate on social issues than economic ones, and has opposed decriminalisation of harder drugs, as well as supporting military spending raises and nuclear renewal. However, in recent years he has moved towards opening "safe-use centres" and rehabilitation of drug addicts. His constitutional reforms have brought about a Code of Atlish Law, and increased justice spending markedly. Additionally, Osborne is a key proponent of the staunchly pro-LGBTQ+ faction of the party, personally speaking out in favour of (and then finishing off) the Largan-era "third gender" law, and then instituting self-ID for transgender individuals, increasing access to free treatment for those individuals, and changing the definition of "woman" and "man" to include transgender individuals, as well as clamping down on hate speech against anyone based on "gender identity".

Osborne is also believed to be part of the Atlish Society for Humanism (ASH), whose membership is undeclared, but whose goals are commonly seen as being promoting state secularism. He publicly identifies as atheist, scrapped the trial policy of teaching world religions in schools instituted by his predecessor, banned religious schools in Esthursia, attempted to ban infant baptisms, and has been a proponent of adding the Church's "complicity" in the Arbjern ultranationalist government in the 1950s as part of the history curriculum; Osborne has commented on Esthursia being "culturally atheist", and that governments should "aim to preserve and recognise that fact, inkeeping with personal freedoms to practice." However, Osborne has also spoken out against discrimination on the grounds of religiosity, calling the practice "awful and borne of self-aggrandising amongst a small minority of this non-theist community".

Foreign policy

Osborne's foreign policy tends to be more hawkish than the party at large; his leadership has undertaken a sustained rise in military spending, and the Army 2015 programme expands the amount of nuclear submarines that exist in Esthursia. His position during the Aurorean War of 2022-23 has asserted Esthursian non-belligerence, however has supported Scalvia and Volshan - particularly the latter - with military aid, such as drone kits. He has spoken in favour of an international alliance of democratic nations, and was previously in favour of remaining in the UAS, having brought the nation into the UAS in 2022, but also took the nation out nearly two years later in November 2023 over rising perceptions of diplomatic shortfalls and tensions. Esthursia, under Osborne, has joined numerous organisations, including the FSO, UAS, the Vieremä Group (V4) and Allied Nations (AN), the latter being a major endeavour of Osborne personally between Esthursia, Prydania and Norsia. Osborne has thus also been nicknamed "the first globalist", although his predecessor John Largan remains a prominent figure in his government espousing globalist views as his International Development reeve.

Despite this, Esthursia under Osborne has also pursued a more aggressive foreign policy. In 2022, Esthursia joined the Union of Aurorian States, while it has been involved in two wars (the Aurorean war and the Suavidici Civil War), and intervened in the Sorovo-Iolantan border crisis. In November 2023, Esthursia condemned the Scalvian government following a breakdown of trade talks post-UAS and allegations that a condemnation of Iolanta became a "red line no", as well as pushing for Esthursia to be at the forefront of the Iolantan sanctions and embargo programme. Esthursia's military spending increases and nuclear rearmament, and its exercises both with Vierëma Group nations cooperatively and against Predician interference in Auroria in 2023, have been seen as a rise in Esthursian willingness to involve itself in military affairs.

Esthursia under Osborne has become a major proponent of foreign aid and developmental aid, with around half of nations in Auroria receiving Esthursian aid of some kind in 2022. The foreign aid budget rose to 71 billion IBU in 2022, its highest ever in history.

Personal life

Harold Osborne married in March 1991, and has two children. Identifying as an atheist, Osborne finds the idea of religion "untenable with [his] personal beliefs."

Awards and honours

• Admitted to the King's Counsel (KC) in 2019.
• Sworn into the Aldrage, the King's advisery body of former or currently serving Redery members, in 2007.
• Honorary Fellow of the Lorestead of Sutton since 2014.