2024 Arabin Senate elections: Difference between revisions

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Line 4: Line 4:
  | flag_year          =  
  | flag_year          =  
  | type              = legislative
  | type              = legislative
  | ongoing            = yes
  | ongoing            = no
  | previous_election  = 2022 Arabin Senate elections
  | previous_election  = 2022 Arabin Senate elections
  | previous_year      = 2022
  | previous_year      = 2022
Line 15: Line 15:
  | 1blank            = Seats up
  | 1blank            = Seats up
  | 2blank            = Races won
  | 2blank            = Races won
| party1            = [[Democratic Party (Arabi)|Democratic]]
| color1            = 2a52be
| image1            = [[File:Default female Arabi.jpg|160x180px]]
| leader1            = Mary Nichols
| leader_since1      = January 8, 2017
| leaders_seat1      = [[Saint George (Arabi)|Saint George]]
| seats_before1      = 15
| seats_after1      = '''19'''
| seat_change1      = {{increase}} 4
| popular_vote1      = '''8,631,834'''
| percentage1        = '''52.64%'''
| 1data1            = 5
| 2data1            = '''9'''


  | party1             = [[Republican Party (Arabi)|Republican]]
  | party2             = [[Republican Party (Arabi)|Republican]]
  | color1             = facb4c
  | color2             = facb4c
  | image1             = [[File:Default male Arabi.jpg|160x180px]]
  | image2             = [[File:Default male Arabi.jpg|160x180px]]
  | leader1           = Spencer Pickering
  | leader2           = Spencer Pickering
  | leader_since1     = December 19, 2022
  | leader_since2     = December 19, 2022
  | leaders_seat1     = [[Dellcourt (Arabi)|Dellcourt]]
  | leaders_seat2     = [[Dellcourt (Arabi)|Dellcourt]]
  | last_election1     =  
  | last_election2     =  
  | seats_before1     = '''17'''
  | seats_before2     = '''17'''
  | seats_needed1      = {{steady}}
  | seats_after2      = 13
  | seats_after1      =  
| seat_change2      = {{decrease}} 4
  | seat_change1      =  
  | popular_vote2      = 7,767,426
  | 1data1             = 6
  | percentage2        = 47.36%
  | 2data1             =  
  | 1data2             = 6
  | 2data2             = 2


| party2            = [[Democratic Party (Arabi)|Democratic]]
| color2            = 2a52be
| image2            = [[File:Default female Arabi.jpg|160x180px]]
| leader2            = Mary Nichols
| leader_since2      = January 8, 2017
| leaders_seat2      = [[Saint George (Arabi)|Saint George]]
| seats_before2      = 15
| seats_needed2      = {{increase}} 2
| seats_after2      =
| seat_change2      =
| 1data2            = 5
| 2data2            =
  | map_image          = [[File:Arabin Senate elections, 2024.png|512x317px]]
  | map_image          = [[File:Arabin Senate elections, 2024.png|512x317px]]
  | map_size          = 320px
  | map_size          = 320px
  | map_caption        = {{legend0|#BECCF1|Democratic incumbent}} {{legend0|#FDE7AC|Republican incumbent}} <br/> {{legend0|#d3d3d3|No election}} <hr>''Circular inset ([[Windsor (Arabi)|Windsor]]): both seats up for election''
  | map_caption        = {{legend0|#BECCF1|Democratic incumbent}} {{legend0|#FDE7AC|Republican incumbent}} <br/> {{legend0|#2a52be|Democratic gain}} {{legend0|#d3d3d3|No election}} <hr>''Circular inset ([[Windsor (Arabi)|Windsor]]): both seats up for election''
  | title              = Majority Leader
  | title              = Majority Leader
  | before_election    = Spencer Pickering
  | before_election    = Spencer Pickering
  | before_party      = [[Republican Party (Arabi)|Republican]]
  | before_party      = [[Republican Party (Arabi)|Republican]]
  | after_election    =  
  | after_election    = Mary Nichols
  | after_party        =  
  | after_party        = [[Democratic Party (Arabi)|Democratic]]
}}
}}


The '''2024 Arabin Senate elections''' are scheduled to be held on December 7, 2024, during the [[2024 Arabin elections]]. 10 of the 32 seats in the [[Arabin Senate|Senate]] will be contested in regular elections, the winners will serve six-year terms in the [[Arabin Congress]] from January 5, 2025, to January 5, 2031. A special election will be held concurrently to fill the seat vacated by [[Lucien Orton (Arabi)|Lucien Orton]] who resigned to become [[President of Arabi|president]]. The winner of the special election will serve the remainder of term until 2027. Senators are sorted into three classes with staggered terms so diffrent classes are elected every two years. Class 3 senators, who were last elected in [[2018 Arabin Senate elections|2018]], will be up for election in 2024. Other federal, state, and local elections will also be held concurrently.
The '''2024 Arabin Senate elections''' were held on December 7, 2024, during the [[2024 Arabin elections]]. 10 of the 32 seats in the [[Arabin Senate|Senate]] were be contested in regular elections, the winners will serve six-year terms in the [[Arabin Congress]] from January 5, 2025, to January 5, 2031. A special election was held concurrently to fill the seat vacated by [[Lucien Orton (Arabi)|Lucien Orton]] who resigned to become [[President of Arabi|president]]. The winner of the special election will serve the remainder of term until 2027. Senators are sorted into three classes with staggered terms so diffrent classes are elected every two years. Class 3 senators, who were last elected in [[2018 Arabin Senate elections|2018]], will be up for election in 2024. Other federal, state, and local elections were also held concurrently.


As of {{FULLDATE}}, no Senators have announced plans to retire and all are expected to run for re-election.
The [[Democratic Party (Arabi)|Democrats]] secured major victories on election night. Democrats picked up four seats that were previously held by a [[Republican Party (Arabi)|Republican]].


== Partisan structure ==
== Partisan structure ==
All 10 Class 3 Senate seats and one Class 1 seat are up for election in 2024; Class 3 currently consists of 5 Democrats and 6 Republicans.
All 10 Class 3 Senate seats and one Class 1 seat were up for election in 2024; Class 3 consisted of 5 Democrats and 6 Republicans.


== Predictions ==
== Predictions ==

Latest revision as of 02:59, 10 December 2024

2024 Arabin Senate elections
← 2022 December 7, 2024 2026 →
11 of the 32 seats in the Arabin Senate
17[1] seats needed for a majority
  Majority party Minority party
  Default female Arabi.jpg Default male Arabi.jpg
Leader Mary Nichols Spencer Pickering
Party Democratic Republican
Leader since January 8, 2017 December 19, 2022
Leader's seat Saint George Dellcourt
Seats before 15 17
Seats after 19 13
Seat change Increase 4 Decrease 4
Popular vote 8,631,834 7,767,426
Percentage 52.64% 47.36%
Seats up 5 6
Races won 9 2
Arabin Senate elections, 2024.png
     Democratic incumbent      Republican incumbent
     Democratic gain      No election
Circular inset (Windsor): both seats up for election
Majority Leader before election

Spencer Pickering
Republican

Elected Majority Leader

Mary Nichols
Democratic

The 2024 Arabin Senate elections were held on December 7, 2024, during the 2024 Arabin elections. 10 of the 32 seats in the Senate were be contested in regular elections, the winners will serve six-year terms in the Arabin Congress from January 5, 2025, to January 5, 2031. A special election was held concurrently to fill the seat vacated by Lucien Orton who resigned to become president. The winner of the special election will serve the remainder of term until 2027. Senators are sorted into three classes with staggered terms so diffrent classes are elected every two years. Class 3 senators, who were last elected in 2018, will be up for election in 2024. Other federal, state, and local elections were also held concurrently.

The Democrats secured major victories on election night. Democrats picked up four seats that were previously held by a Republican.

Partisan structure

All 10 Class 3 Senate seats and one Class 1 seat were up for election in 2024; Class 3 consisted of 5 Democrats and 6 Republicans.

Predictions

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe": near-certain chance of victory
Constituency Incumbent Ratings
State Senator Arabin News
Journal
May 3, 2024 		Political
Forecasting
May 15, 2024 		PolitiTrade
May 27, 2024
Dellcourt Eloise Carey Safe D Likely D Safe D
Drakeland Louie Richards Likely R Likely R Safe R
New London Harry Bradshaw Tossup Tossup Tilt D (flip)
New Plymouth Justine Greer Tossup Tossup Lean D
Saint George Julio Vance Tossup Tossup Tossup
Severn Melissa Townsend Likely D Tossup Tilt R (flip)
Terranova Gerard Albert Tossup Tossup Tossup
Walpole Elois Neal Tilt R Lean R Tossup
Welwald Maddison Davidson Tossup Tilt R Tilt R
Windsor
(regular) 		Joel Dunn Lean D Tilt D Tilt D
Windsor
(special) 		Jessica Downey Tilt R Tossup Tossup
Overall D - 13
R - 14
5 tossup 		D - 12
R - 14
6 tossup 		D - 14
R - 14
4 tossup

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ 16 plus the vice president
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