2020 Arabin Senate elections

For related races, see 2020 Arabin elections.

2020 Arabin Senate elections

December 5, 2020
11 of the 32 seats (class 1) in the Arabin Senate 17 seats needed for a majority
Leader Mary Nichols Lucien Orton Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi) Leader since January 8, 2017 January 8, 2015 Leader's seat Saint George Windsor Current seats 18 14 Seats needed 2-3 Seats up 8 3
Democratic senator running      Republican senator running      Democratic senator retiring      Republican senator retiring      No election
Incumbent Majority Leader Mary Nichols Democratic Party (Arabi)

The 2020 Arabin Senate elctions will be held on December 5, 2020, with the 11 class 1 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections. The winners will be elected to six-year terms starting from January 5, 2021, to January 5, 2027.

Predictions

Listed below are predictions by six organizations that regularly researches polling data.

• "tossup": no advantage
• "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
• "lean": slight advantage
• "likely"": significant, but surmountable, advantage
• "safe"": near-certain chance of victory

State	Senator	2020 election ratings
		Arabin News Journal May 12, 2020	Independence Group July 3, 2020	New Age Research April 15, 2020	OPP June 29, 2020	Political Forecasting June 15, 2020	PolitiTrade July 1, 2020
Burberry	Poppy Smith	Lean D	Tilt R (flip)	Tossup	Tilt D	Tilt R (flip)	Lean D
Dartmoor	Henry Carpenter	Tossup	Lean D	Tilt R (flip)	Tossup	Lean D	Lean D
Dellcourt	Spencer Pickering	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Tossup	Likely R	Lean R
Lochcoast	Lola Fry	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D
New Bristol	Andrew Clegg	Lean R	Lean R	Tossup	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R
New Cambridge	Winnie Kimes	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Tilt D	Likely D	Tossup
New Plymouth	Michael Fuller	Tilt R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Lean D	Likely R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Lean R (flip)
Owens	David Coffman	Tilt R (flip)	Lean R (flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D	Tilt R (flip)
Saint George	Mary Nichols	Tilt R (flip)	Tossup	Lean R (flip)	Lean D	Tossup	Lean D
Severn	Amber Holmes	Likely D	Likely R (flip)	Lean D	Tilt R (flip)	Tossup	Lean R (flip)
Windsor	Lucien Orton	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Lean R	Tossup
Overall		D - 14 R - 17 1 tossup	D - 13 R - 18 1 tossup	D - 13 R - 16 3 tossups	D - 13 R - 16 3 tossups	D - 14 R - 16 2 tossups	D - 13 R - 17 2 tossups

Election dates

State	Filing deadline for major party candidates	Primary election	General election	Poll closing (AST)
Burberry	January 1, 2020	June 20, 2020	December 5, 2020	7:00pm
Dartmoor	December 6, 2019	May 2, 2020	December 5, 2020	7:00pm
Dellcourt	January 29, 2020	July 11, 2020	December 5, 2020	7:00pm
Lochcoast	February 7, 2020	August 1, 2020	December 5, 2020	7:00pm
New Bristol	November 11, 2019	March 28, 2020	December 5, 2020	7:00pm
New Cambridge	November 27, 2019	April 4, 2020	December 5, 2020	7:00pm
New Plymouth	January 29, 2020	July 4, 2020	December 5, 2020	7:00pm
Owens	March 13, 2020	August 29, 2020	December 5, 2020	7:00pm
Saint George	December 23, 2019	May 9, 2020	December 5, 2020	7:00pm
Severn	April 16, 2020	September 12, 2020	December 5, 2020	7:00pm
Windsor	March 24, 2020	August 1, 2020	December 5, 2020	7:00pm