2020 Arabin Senate elections

For related races, see 2020 Arabin elections.

2020 Arabin Senate elections

December 5, 2020
11 of the 32 seats (class 1) in the Arabin Senate 17 seats needed for a majority
Leader Mary Nichols Lucien Orton Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi) Leader since January 8, 2017 January 8, 2015 Leader's seat Saint George Windsor Current seats 18 14 Seats needed 2-3 Seats up 8 3
Democratic senator running      Republican senator running      Democratic senator retiring      No election
Incumbent Majority Leader Mary Nichols Democratic Party (Arabi)

The 2020 Arabin Senate elctions will be held on December 5, 2020, with the 11 class 1 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections. The winners will be elected to six-year terms starting from January 5, 2021, to January 5, 2027.

Predictions

Listed below are predictions by six organizations that regularly researches polling data.

• "tossup": no advantage
• "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
• "lean": slight advantage
• "likely"": significant, but surmountable, advantage
• "safe"": near-certain chance of victory

State	Senator	2020 election ratings
		Arabin News Journal May 12, 2020	Independence Group July 3, 2020	New Age Research August 3, 2020	OPP June 29, 2020	Political Forecasting June 15, 2020	PolitiTrade July 1, 2020
Burberry	Poppy Smith	Lean D	Tilt R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Tilt D	Tilt R (flip)	Lean D
Dartmoor	Henry Carpenter	Tossup	Lean D	Likely R (flip)	Tossup	Lean D	Lean D
Dellcourt	Spencer Pickering	Lean R	Likely R	Lean D (flip)	Tossup	Likely R	Lean R
Lochcoast	Lola Fry	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D
New Bristol	Andrew Clegg	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R
New Cambridge	Winnie Kimes	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Tilt D	Likely D	Tossup
New Plymouth	Michael Fuller	Tilt R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Likely D	Likely R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Lean R (flip)
Owens	David Coffman	Tilt R (flip)	Lean R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Tossup	Tilt D	Tilt R (flip)
Saint George	Mary Nichols	Tilt R (flip)	Tossup	Lean D	Lean D	Tossup	Lean D
Severn	Amber Holmes	Likely D	Likely R (flip)	Likely D	Tilt R (flip)	Tossup	Lean R (flip)
Windsor	Lucien Orton	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Lean R	Tossup
Overall		D - 14 R - 17 1 tossup	D - 13 R - 18 1 tossup	D - 16 R - 16 0 tossups	D - 13 R - 16 3 tossups	D - 14 R - 16 2 tossups	D - 13 R - 17 2 tossups

Election dates

Bold indicates a future date.

State	Filing deadline for major party candidates	Primary election	General election	Poll closing
Burberry	January 1, 2020	June 20, 2020	December 5, 2020	7:00pm AST
Dartmoor	December 6, 2019	May 2, 2020	December 5, 2020
Dellcourt	January 29, 2020	July 11, 2020	December 5, 2020
Lochcoast	February 7, 2020	August 1, 2020	December 5, 2020
New Bristol	November 11, 2019	March 28, 2020	December 5, 2020
New Cambridge	November 27, 2019	April 4, 2020	December 5, 2020
New Plymouth	January 29, 2020	July 4, 2020	December 5, 2020
Owens	March 13, 2020	August 29, 2020	December 5, 2020
Saint George	December 23, 2019	May 9, 2020	December 5, 2020
Severn	April 16, 2020	September 12, 2020	December 5, 2020
Windsor	March 24, 2020	August 1, 2020	December 5, 2020

Burberry

Burberry election

December 5, 2020

Nominee Poppy Smith Christina Tyson Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Arabin Senator Poppy Smith Democratic Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Democrat Poppy Smith was first elected in 2008, defeating incumbent Maureen Rivera. Smith is running for her third term.

On June 20, 2020, Smith won the nomination for the Democratic Party while Representative from Burberry's 2nd district, Christina Tyson won the nomination for the Republican Party.

Primary results

Burberry's Democratic Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate		Votes	%
	Poppy Smith (incumbent)	211,114	49.63
	Robert Wells	114,215	26.86
	Martha Gawlik	100,001	23.51

Burberry's Republican Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate		Votes	%
	Christina Tyson	134,916	29.52
	Lyle Nelson	103,301	22.60
	Anna Gillis	81,109	17.75
	Matthew Wells	77,746	17.02
	Jessica Wodsworth	59,927	13.11

Dartmoor

Dartmoor election

December 5, 2020

Nominee Henry Carpenter Nelson Walls Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Arabin Senator Henry Carpenter Democratic Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Democrat Henry Carpenter was first elected in 2008, defeating incumbent Robert Ferguson. Carpenter is running for his third term.

On May 2, 2020, Carpenter won the nomination for the Democratic Party while former governor of Dartmoor, Nelson Walls, won the nomination for the Republican Party.

Primary results

Dartmoor's Democratic Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate		Votes	%
	Henry Carpenter (incumbent)	294,787	79.17
	John Higgins	77,518	20.83

Dartmoor's Republican Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate		Votes	%
	Nelson Walls	121,415	60.09
	Ursula Winters	80,652	39.91

Dellcourt

Dellcourt election

December 5, 2020

Nominee Spencer Pickering Melissa Jurgens Party Republican Party (Arabi) Democratic Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Arabin Senator Spencer Pickering Republican Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Republican Spencer Pickering was first elected in 2002, defeating incumbent Justin Price. Pickering is running for his fourth term.

On July 11, 2020, Pickering won the nomination for the Republican Party, while Dellcourt State Senator, Melissa Jurgens won the nomination for the Democratic Party.

Primary results

Dellcourt's Republican Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate		Votes	%
	Spencer Pickering (incumbent)	99,967	73.38
	Jennifer Yates	36,275	26.62

Dellcourt's Democratic Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate		Votes	%
	Melissa Jurgens	102,308	53.72
	Robin Banks	32,198	16.90
	Abby Williams	21,219	11.14
	Darius Johnson	17,436	9.15
	Mario Russo	11,445	6.02
	Thersea Hollis	5,855	3.07

Lochcoast

Lochcoast election

December 5, 2020

Nominee Michael Sykes Kenneth Tyler Party Democratic Party (Arabi) Republican Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Arabin Senator Lola Fry Democratic Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Democrat Lola Fry was first elected in 2008, defeating incumbent Harvey Humphreys. On February 3, 2020, Fry announced her intention to run for Governor of Lochcoast and would not seek a third term in the Senate. The primaries in Lochcoast were on August 1, 2020. State Senators Michael Sykes (D) and Kenneth Tyler (R) won their respective party primaries.

Primary results

Lochcoast's Democratic Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate		Votes	%
	Michael Sykes	123,879	47.72
	Nathan Hardy	74,315	28.62
	Dylan Lowe	44,039	16.96
	Abby French	17,398	6.70

Lochcoast's Republican Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate		Votes	%
	Kenneth Tyler	115,112	45.34
	Callum Baldwin	62,200	24.49
	Amanda Folks	42,964	16.92
	Roger Camacho	33,663	13.25

New Bristol

New Bristol election

December 5, 2020

Nominee Andrew Clegg Brynn Bilderback Party Republican Party (Arabi) Democratic Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Arabin Senator Andrew Clegg Republican Party (Arabi)

Incumbent Republican Andrew Clegg was elected as a Conservative Socialist in 2014, defeating Liberal Socialist nominee Evan Goodwin. He is running for a second term. The primaries in New Bristol were on March 28, 2020. Incumbent Senator Andrew Clegg (R) and former Arabin Representative Brynn Bilderback (D) won their respective party primaries.

Primary results

New Bristol's Republican Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate		Votes	%
	Andrew Clegg (incumbent)	815,997	87.78
	Michael Shaw	113,675	12.22

New Bristol's Democratic Senate Primary Election, 2020
Candidate		Votes	%
	Brynn Bilderback	777,771	68.17
	Ryan Buckley	137,516	12.06
	Spencer Webb	109,284	9.58
	Ethan Martin	79,456	6.96
	Alicia Khan	36,946	3.23