2022 Arabin Senate elections
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12 of the 32 seats (class 1) in the Arabin Senate 17 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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1–2
The 2022 Arabin Senate elctions will be held on December 3, 2022, with the 11 class 2 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections and 1 class 3 seat being contested in a special election[1]. The winners will be elected to six-year terms starting from January 5, 2023, to January 5, 2029.
Predictions
Listed below are predictions by six organizations that regularly researches polling data.
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean": slight advantage
- "likely"": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "safe"": near-certain chance of victory
| State | Senator | 2022 election ratings | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arabin News Journal November 4, 2021 |
Political Forecasting December 5, 2021 |
PolitiTrade December 10, 2021 | |||||
| Burberry | Robert Nelson | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | |||
| Dartmoor | Diane Devalle | Tilt D | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | |||
| Drakeland | Luca Sutton (retiring) |
Tilt D (flip) | Tilt R | Lean R | |||
| Lochcoast | Tamala Natal | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | |||
| New Bristol | Sean Blackburn (retiring) |
Tilt R | Tilt R | Likely R | |||
| New Cambridge | Sebastian Whittaker | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | |||
| New London | Sylvia Ireland | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | |||
| New Plymouth | Justine Greer | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Tilt D | |||
| Owens | Randy Elliot (retiring) |
Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | |||
| Terranova | Kiera Shepard | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | |||
| Walpole | Brenda Castro | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | |||
| Welwald | Victoria Bailey (retiring) |
Lean R | Tilt D (flip) | Lean R | |||
| Overall | D - 15 R - 15 2 tossup |
D - 14 R - 14 4 tossups |
D - 14 R - 17 1 tossups | ||||
Election dates
Bold indicates a future date.
| State | Filing deadline for major party candidates |
Primary election |
General election |
Poll closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burberry | January 1, 2022 | TBA | December 3, 2022 | 7:00pm
|
| Dartmoor | December 15, 2021 | TBA | ||
| Drakeland | February 1, 2022 | TBA | ||
| Lochcoast | February 1, 2022 | TBA | ||
| New Bristol | December 2, 2021 | TBA | ||
| New Cambridge | November 30, 2021 | TBA | ||
| New London | January 5, 2022 | TBA | ||
| New Plymouth | January 3, 2022 | TBA | ||
| Owens | December 13, 2021 | TBA | ||
| Terranova | December 20, 2021 | TBA | ||
| Walpole | February 3, 2022 | TBA | ||
| Welwald | January 10, 2022 | TBA |
Notes
- ↑ Robert Stephens became vice president on October 1, 2021, vacating his senate seat. His successor, Justine Greer, has announced she will run for the seat to fill the remainder of the term.