2022 Arabin Senate elections
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12 of the 32 seats in the Arabin Senate 17[1] seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2022 Arabin Senate elctions were held on December 3, 2022, with the 11 class 2 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections and 1 class 3 seat being contested in a special election.[2] The winners will be elected to six-year terms starting from January 5, 2023, to January 5, 2029.
Results
| Burberry | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Republican | Robert Nelson (incumbent) | 362,587 | 62.68 | |
| Democratic | Gabriel Joyce | 215,875 | 37.32 | |
| Dartmoor | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Republican | David Benoit | 354,287 | 52.19 | |
| Democratic | Diane Devalle (incumbent) | 324,588 | 47.81 | |
| Drakeland | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Republican | Scott Barnes | 778,524 | 72.01 | |
| Democratic | Sean Sheppard | 302,568 | 27.99 | |
| Lochcoast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Democratic | Tamala Natal (incumbent) | 1,096,857 | 55.94 | |
| Republican | Kenneth Johnson | 863,987 | 44.06 | |
| New Bristol | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Democratic | Paul Austin | 2,036,987 | 50.85 | |
| Republican | Jaime Rojas | 1,968,587 | 49.15 | |
| New Cambridge | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Democratic | Sebastian Whittaker (incumbent) | 4,639,985 | 59.90 | |
| Republican | Daphne Brannon | 3,106,358 | 40.10 | |
| New London | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Republican | Sylvia Ireland (incumbent) | 875,145 | 50.66 | |
| Democratic | Ryan Spencer | 852,325 | 49.34 | |
| New Plymouth | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Democratic | Justine Greer (incumbent) | 936,351 | 50.14 | |
| Republican | Alyssa Reed | 931,206 | 49.86 | |
| Owens | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Republican | Erin Cooper | 2,012,012 | 53.59 | |
| Democratic | Peter Rowley | 1,742,539 | 46.41 | |
| Terranova | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Republican | Kiera Shepard (incumbent) | 452,598 | 63.00 | |
| Democratic | Spencer Williamson | 265,858 | 37.00 | |
| Walpole | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Republican | Mollie Connor | 2,302,588 | 61.32 | |
| Democratic | Brenda Castro (incumbent) | 1,452,598 | 38.68 | |
| Welwald | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Republican | Demi Slater | 817,526 | 58.73 | |
| Democratic | Mark Kirk | 574,587 | 41.27 | |
Predictions
Listed below are predictions by three organizations that regularly researches polling data.
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean": slight advantage
- "likely"": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "safe"": near-certain chance of victory
| State | Senator | 2022 election ratings | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arabin News Journal March 28, 2022 |
Political Forecasting April 1, 2022 |
PolitiTrade March 21, 2022 | |||||
| Burberry | Robert Nelson | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | |||
| Dartmoor | Diane Devalle | Likely D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | |||
| Drakeland | Luca Sutton (retiring) |
Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | |||
| Lochcoast | Tamala Natal | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | |||
| New Bristol | Sean Blackburn (retiring) |
Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | |||
| New Cambridge | Sebastian Whittaker | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | |||
| New London | Sylvia Ireland | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | |||
| New Plymouth (special) |
Justine Greer | Tilt R (flip) | Tilt D | Tossup | |||
| Owens | Randy Elliot (retiring) |
Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | |||
| Terranova | Kiera Shepard | Likely R | Tilt R | Lean R | |||
| Walpole | Brenda Castro | Tilt R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Tilt D | |||
| Welwald | Victoria Bailey (retiring) |
Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | |||
| Overall | D - 15 R - 16 1 tossup |
D - 15 R - 14 3 tossups |
D - 14 R - 14 4 tossups | ||||
Election dates
Bold indicates a future date.
| State | Filing deadline for candidates |
Primary election |
General election |
Poll closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burberry | January 1, 2022 | April 16, 2022 | December 3, 2022 | 7:00pm
|
| Dartmoor | December 15, 2021 | June 11, 2022 | ||
| Drakeland | February 1, 2022 | May 14, 2022 | ||
| Lochcoast | February 1, 2022 | April 30, 2022 | ||
| New Bristol | December 2, 2021 | March 12, 2022 | ||
| New Cambridge | November 30, 2021 | June 18, 2022 | ||
| New London | January 5, 2022 | May 28, 2022 | ||
| New Plymouth | January 3, 2022 | April 9, 2022 | ||
| Owens | December 13, 2021 | March 19, 2022 | ||
| Terranova | December 20, 2021 | April 2, 2022 | ||
| Walpole | February 3, 2022 | May 7, 2022 | ||
| Welwald | January 10, 2022 | June 25, 2022 |
Notes
- ↑ 16 plus the vice president
- ↑ Robert Stephens became vice president on October 1, 2021, vacating his senate seat. His successor, Justine Greer, has announced she will run for the seat to fill the remainder of the term.